The Phillies re-signed Aaron Nola early within the offseason, made a giant push to signal Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and an opportunity nonetheless stays that they may make yet one more splash within the free agent pitching market. In line with USA Today’s Bob Nightengale, Philadelphia can be open to bringing Blake Snell into the fold, however not on a long-term deal. A one-year pact or a shorter-term contract can be the Phils’ desire, or fairly presumably the form of three-year take care of a number of opt-outs just lately signed by different Boras Company purchasers Cody Bellinger and Matt Chapman.
The information isn’t stunning within the sense that loads of groups would equally like to have Snell on these phrases, although the Phillies’ curiosity in Snell was described by The Athletic’s Jayson Stark back in November as “lukewarm.” In Stark’s view, the Phils noticed Snell as a fallback plan in the event that they couldn’t add their higher-priority targets (i.e. Nola or Yamamoto). There’s additionally the truth that the Phillies have already got a set rotation on paper, with Nola, Zack Wheeler, Ranger Suarez, Taijuan Walker, and Cristopher Sanchez combining to kind a really strong beginning 5.
President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski has spoken a number of instances this offseason about how a lot he likes his rotation choices, and about how the Phils’ different forays into the beginning pitching market had been centered on depth additions. That mentioned, Dombrowski additionally famous last month that “I can’t let you know that someone doesn’t fall into your lap sooner or later the place you say, ’Gee, that’s a chance we are able to’t flip down.’ ” It appears attainable that Snell’s seemingly restricted market would possibly now symbolize such a risk for the Phillies to get entangled.
Snell’s reported willingness to think about shorter-term provides might imply {that a} five- or six-year contract merely may not be on the desk at this late date within the offseason. Even again in mid-February, MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald wondered if Snell can be higher off aiming for a really excessive common annual worth inside a short-term deal, so the left-hander might then doubtlessly choose out subsequent winter when the market is extra favorable and extra groups could be keen to spend. The Yankees, Giants, and Angels have all been linked to Snell’s market, and that checklist most likely widens significantly ought to the reigning NL Cy Younger winner begin specializing in simply short-term contracts with opt-outs hooked up.
Philadelphia is undoubtedly in win-now mode, and each Dombrowski and workforce chairman John Middleton have a historical past of creating aggressive strikes searching for a World Collection crown. Signing Snell and transferring to both some form of six-man rotation or in making Sanchez one thing of an over-qualified swingman would enhance what’s already a very good rotation, and no postseason opponent would wish to face the trio of Snell, Wheeler, and Nola inside a brief collection.
Whilst a short-term signing, nevertheless, Snell has its drawbacks for the Phillies. The membership must surrender $1MM in worldwide bonus pool funds and its second- and fifth-highest picks within the 2024 draft, as a result of Snell rejected a qualifying provide and since Philadelphia was a luxury-tax payor in 2023. The truth is, the Phils have crossed the Aggressive Stability Tax threshold in every of the final two years and are poised to make it a trifecta in 2024, with a projected CBT variety of $261MM (as per RosterResource).
This determine is already over the second-highest penalty threshold of $257MM, and including Snell would certainly put Philadelphia over the third tier of $277MM. Groups who cross that third tier face the additional penalty of a ten-slot drop for his or her first choice within the following season’s draft, in addition to even steeper monetary prices. As a three-time tax payor, the Phillies can be taxed at a 95% fee for each greenback spent above the $277MM mark.
For a one-year splurge on Snell, Middleton would possibly deem the CBT prices as value it if the left-hander is a remaining piece who can nab the Phillies that elusive championship. However the danger is clear, as if Snell struggles in 2024 or will get injured, all of a sudden what would possibly’ve appeared like a one-year take care of Snell opting out now appears extra like a fuller dedication or two or three years, and an additional pressure on the Phillies’ books. This may not be best for a workforce that has been prioritizing an extension with Wheeler, and many of the Phils’ most outstanding gamers are signed by means of no less than 2025.
