Two of my favourite hobbies are getting extremely concerned about minor strikes made by the Tampa Bay Rays and overrating Dylan Carlson. Boy, is at the moment proper up my alley, then: the Cardinals traded Carlson to the Rays in alternate for reliever Shawn Armstrong. One other of my favourite hobbies: groups shopping for and promoting on the identical time. The Giants bought in on that by buying Mark Canha from the Tigers in alternate for Eric Silva. Three issues I like without delay? Let’s dive into the main points and see what’s happening on this unusual pair of trades.
It’s straightforward to determine the perimeters within the first commerce. The Rays are persevering with to pry aside their roster piece by piece, whereas the Cardinals are consolidating for a playoff push. Armstrong is a depth arm and occasional opener who may give you a number of innings without delay. He’s recorded 4 or extra outs in a recreation 11 occasions already this 12 months, hardly your common single-inning reliever. A few of these outings have been inefficient – he has a 5.40 ERA and opponents are completely tattooing him after they put the ball in play. However he’s been a wonderfully succesful reliever for the final three years, and as everyone knows, single-season ERA/FIP gaps are hardly predictive.
In different phrases, Armstrong goes to fit right into a playoff bullpen in a method that almost all relievers do: He’ll get some outs, however he’ll offer you some heartburn whereas he’s at it. He throws a weird pitch combine – mainly an excellent cut up between four-seamers, sinkers, and cutters, with a tiny pinch of a sweeping slider for seasoning. When he’s on, he disrupts hitters’ timing by delivering pitches that diverge by only a bit from their initially similar tunnels. In the event that they’re all thrown with the identical preliminary trajectory, his sinker finally ends up a median of 10.6 inches down and arm-side of his four-seamer, and 10.8 inches arm-side of his cutter. In the meantime, his cutter finally ends up 9.8 inches down and glove-side of his four-seamer. In different phrases, it’s a fastball triangle, and also you by no means know which vertex you must swing at.
That sounds weird. It is weird. This isn’t a traditional pitch combine for an efficient reliever. Armstrong’s outings are filled with awkward swings and just-missed-it contact. He’s an ideal match for the Cardinals, who play in a cavernous stadium with loads of elite defenders to corral the mishits. He’s additionally going to give up some residence runs that make you say, “I might pitch higher than that.” In different phrases, he’s a center reliever.
Armstrong is a pleasant mixture of inning filler and mid-leverage possibility for a St. Louis staff that’s been dipping into minor league depth all 12 months to fill aid innings. Chris Roycroft has nasty stuff and Kyle Leahy’s slider is not any joke, however they’re in all probability stretched as key bullpen members. Armstrong will take a little bit of strain off of these guys, and make the staff extra immune to damage by permitting Andre Pallante to drift between the rotation and the bullpen based mostly on want. That is one thing of a luxurious pickup to me – I don’t suppose he’s certainly one of their finest three relievers – however regardless of their finest efforts to get extra size out of the rotation, the Cardinals might want to lean closely on their bullpen down the stretch, in order that they determined to fortify it now, even whereas there wasn’t an apparent want.
The associated fee would have sounded ridiculous a number of years in the past. Carlson was a consensus High 100 prospect who put up a stable season at age 22, then backed it up with one other good 12 months curtailed by damage. Then he turned to clay. Over 393 plate appearances because the begin of 2023, he’s hitting .212/.303/.300 and enjoying poor outfield protection. The Cardinals have had outfield damage points all 12 months, in order that they’ve given Carlson each likelihood to succeed. It simply hasn’t labored out.
Carlson does match one Rays archetype: He’s an ideal platoon participant. He swings tougher and squares the ball up extra often when hitting righty, and he’s performed much better towards lefty pitching in his profession. That position wasn’t out there on the Cardinals, who’ve been chock full of excellent righty hitters in recent times and simply acquired Tommy Pham, however the Rays have some platoon choices out there instantly.
Carlson is headed into his second 12 months of arbitration subsequent 12 months, although I think about he gained’t command a lot of a elevate, if any, given his tough season. That provides Tampa Bay a few 12 months to determine what they’ve in him. He nonetheless reveals flashes of the potential that helped him tear by way of the minors. He performs a stable outfield. He has a stable strategy and, till this 12 months, made contact at an above-average charge. A change of surroundings may do him good; clearly, issues simply weren’t figuring out in St. Louis.
All in all, that makes this commerce fairly straightforward to parse, despite the fact that I used to be able to dive deep into the weeds to determine it out. The Cardinals didn’t want a short-side platoon outfielder who wasn’t performing, and so they did want a reliever who can deal with bulk. The Rays would reasonably experiment with a platoon outfielder than get nothing for Armstrong. Typically it’s simply as straightforward as that.
The Giants, however, are giving off every kind of complicated alerts, and this commerce is one other unusual one. The rumor mill had been alight with speak of Blake Snell leaving city. The staff despatched out offseason acquisition Jorge Soler and the rehabbing Alex Cobb. They appeared for all of the world like they have been within the technique of retooling. Then they rotated and purchased Bay Space favourite Mark Canha in alternate for minor league reliever Eric Silva.
I’m undecided whether or not calling Canha the Shawn Armstrong of hitters is imply to Canha, imply to Armstrong, or simply correct. He’s a stable skilled hitter headed into the twilight of his profession. A brutal June – .186/.287/.221 with no homers – has made his decline really feel steep certainly, however he bounced again with a sometimes Canhaian July, and projection programs like him to ship his regular offense – 10% or so above common, heavy on the OBP – the remainder of the way in which.
Canha makes much more sense to me in San Francisco with Soler out of the image. The staff is mild on righty bats – they’re platooning each Derek Hill and Casey Schmitt proper now, and so they’re relying on Marco Luciano to return up from Triple-A and deal with DH duties even then. Wilmer Flores and Thairo Estrada have handled accidents all 12 months. The Giants have struggled offensively this season, and so they traded away a top-of-the-lineup hitter whereas coping with a rash of accidents. They wanted to do one thing in the event that they needed to area cheap lineups, and I feel that including Canha principally accomplishes that. On the very least, he’s going to fit into some mixture of the Flores and Austin Slater roles, and his defensive versatility and talent to hit same-handed pitching in a pinch means Bob Melvin can use him creatively.
I’m attempting to think about all the chances right here as a result of the form of the roster leaves loads of choices. The reality is, although, the Giants are primarily getting Canha as a result of he’s a stable hitter and most of the gamers getting pressed into service in San Francisco this 12 months simply aren’t. We solely venture him for half a win above alternative the remainder of the 12 months, however we’re projecting the blokes he’ll take at-bats from for zero. The roster is dangerously skinny and platoon-y, and Canha ought to assist to alleviate at the least a bit of little bit of that strain.
As for Detroit, the choice to commerce Canha feels simple. They’ve fallen out of the playoff race, however they didn’t wish to commerce Tarik Skubal (rightfully so, in my view). Which means the one factor left to do is ship out gamers on expiring contracts and get no matter you’ll be able to for them. Canha matches that invoice, and he was by no means going to command an enormous haul, in order that they took what they may and moved on.
Silva is an fascinating prospect, although his worth is capped because of a change to the bullpen final 12 months. He wanted it; a high-effort supply means he can contact the higher 90s regardless of a diminutive body, however he struggled with strike throwing in A-ball. He’s a full-time reliever in Double-A this 12 months, and whereas his stroll charges nonetheless aren’t fairly, he’s hanging out 30% of opponents to make up for it. He has good secondary stuff and continues to be solely 21. He is likely to be a whiff-reliant multi-inning reliever within the majors; he was logging two-inning stints pretty usually for the Giants. He’s someplace on the 35+/40 FV borderline.
Ultimately, there’s nothing that wild about both of those trades. Certain, the Cardinals are promoting low on a former prime prospect. Certain, the Giants are including after subtracting earlier within the week, however they’re doing it as a result of their earlier transactions created a transparent want. The Tigers and Rays? They’re simply stacking up a bit of little bit of worth the place they’ll. I feel that I’d make each of those trades from both aspect of the desk.
