On San Diego’s Juan Soto Trade Return and Next Steps

Shouldered with the needle-threading job of concurrently chopping payroll and rebuilding a pitching employees thinned out by the departure of a number of key free brokers, the Padres traded famous person Juan Soto and Gold Glove-caliber middle fielder Trent Grisham to the Yankees on Wednesday in trade for 3 large league arms — righties Michael King, Randy Vásquez, and Jhony Brito — in addition to a fourth who is sort of prepared for primetime in prospect Drew Thorpe and backup catcher Kyle Higashioka. Ben Clemens did a full analysis on the impression that the 25-year-old Soto, one in every of baseball’s greatest hitters, could have on the Yankees. I’m going to dive deeper into the arms headed to the Gaslamp District and speak about how the Padres may go about ending their offseason to-do checklist.

Most readers are most likely conscious {that a} mandate to shed payroll was a driving factor for this commerce from San Diego’s perspective. The membership’s sudden shift in financial direction occurred within the wake of the demise of proprietor Peter Seidler. The commerce additionally addresses a big portion of the Padres on-field baseball wants, although it additionally creates huge new holes of their lineup and defensive alignment the place Soto and Grisham was once. The Friars might want to fill or improve no less than two or three spots of their currently-projected lineup in the event that they wish to compete with the defending NL champion Diamondbacks and reigning division-winning Dodgers in 2024, they usually most likely additionally want one other beginning pitcher or two to spherical out their rotation. Shedding Soto’s wage possible created some area to take action, however given the Padres’ monetary constraints, maybe not sufficient to unravel all of those issues by way of free company. There could also be inside candidates, particularly on the place participant aspect, who can contribute on the league minimal wage in 2024; I’ll get to these prospects later.

Let’s begin with who got here again to San Diego and the way they match into an overhauled pitching employees. Previous to the commerce, our Padres rotation projection seemed tough. Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish have been fortified by 27-year-old knuckleballer Matt Waldron, and walk-prone MLB virgin Jay Groome. The free-agent departures of Nick Martinez, Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha, and reigning Cy Younger winner Blake Snell, who pitched a mixed 570 innings in 2023, left the Padres in dire want of impression and depth to have a useful and aggressive pitching employees in 2024. Even when one believes (as I do) that prospect Jairo Iriarte is proficient sufficient to make a significant near-term impression, the Padres nonetheless badly wanted so as to add a number of pitchers to their large league employees. This commerce will get them a lot of the approach there, as all 4 of the pitchers acquired for Soto might moderately be anticipated to pitch within the large leagues subsequent season.

The headliner within the return is King, who spent most of his 4 years of MLB service time as a multi-inning reliever earlier than sliding into the Yankees’ rotation late final August. He seemed incredible after the transfer — 38.1 innings, 33 hits, 9 walks, 48 strikeouts, a 1.88 ERA — and whereas he hasn’t had the chance to show that he can maintain this sort of efficiency over a full season of starter’s innings (his 104 innings in 2023 was simply a career-high), he’s proficient sufficient to melt the blow of shedding Snell and others. Our Esteban Rivera wrote a definitive and thorough breakdown of King’s arsenal and development towards the tip of the season. In brief, as long as he has the stamina for it, he’s going to be an impression man. He’s an All-Star–caliber expertise who elevates San Diego’s rotation again into a decent place and may be the Padres’ greatest starter subsequent 12 months.

Is the Padres’ rotation, on this second, as nasty or deep as both Arizona’s or Los Angeles’ projected rotations? Not fairly, but when issues click on shortly for each Iriarte and the newly-acquired Thorpe, by midseason will probably be very shut. King has accrued 4 years of service and can possible have very inexpensive arb 12 months salaries as a result of a lot of his profession so far was spent in a non-closing reduction capability. He’ll be a free agent after the 2025 season.

Earlier than I speak about Thorpe and Vásquez, who’re each nonetheless rookie-eligible and due to this fact technically prospects, let’s speak about Brito, who graduated from rookie status in 2023. He’s a good one-for-one substitute for Martinez, who is now a Red, as a changeup-heavy swingman who pitched 90 innings in 2023, with half of his appearances begins and half in reduction. Whereas Brito’s 96-mph heater doesn’t miss as many bats as you may hope, in a short-start or long-relief position, he can deploy his changeup a ton to maintain hitters at bay. He has 4 pitches, throws a ton of strikes, will get an above-average price of floor balls, and is a good slot in a protracted reduction and swingman position very similar to Martinez has been.

Vásquez pitched within the large leagues final 12 months however not sufficient to graduate from rookie standing. He was a spin-rate sleeper close to the underside of the Yankees’ prospect checklist for a number of years, then broke out in 2021 when he had a two-tick velocity bump, climbed three ranges of the minors, and put himself on the doorstep of the massive leagues. Like Brito, he labored about 120 complete innings mixed between his minor league and main league outings in 2023, pitching as a starter at Triple-A Scranton however in a variable position for the Yankees. The high-effort nature of his supply, his lack of measurement, and his below-average command all put him within the long-term reduction bucket slightly extra definitively than Brito.

Vásquez sits 94–95 mph and has a four-pitch combine headlined by his trademark breaking ball, which has wowed scouts for the previous half decade or so. In a way, he’s the substitute for Lugo, one other curveball-heavy righty who spent his total profession on the starter/reliever line earlier than the Padres appropriately predicted he’d be capable of begin. Vásquez is simply so tightly wound and mechanically violent that I’ m not snug projecting him as a long-term starter. Due to San Diego’s wants and the flexibleness that his two remaining choice years present, I’d anticipate him to be sixth or seventh on the Padres’ Opening Day rotation depth chart and be up and down as wanted all year long. As soon as his choices run dry, he’s prone to shift right into a extra everlasting reduction position. Each he and Brito are 25 years previous and beneath group management for the subsequent half decade.

For a protracted whereas I’ve been larger on Thorpe than anybody who isn’t his household or agent — possibly even too excessive. I had him ranked a full 40 spots forward of the place he was picked on 2022 draft evening, and I left that grade on him once I wrote up the Yankees system over the last checklist cycle. Pitchers with changeups nearly as good as Thorpe’s and who throw as many strikes as he does are typically high-floor propositions who pitch ceaselessly. His low-80s changeup has a ton of tail, he embodies mechanical repeatability which helps him command it, and his ultra-short arm stroke helps trick hitters into seeing fastball out of his hand. The effectiveness of Thorpe’s slider (extra common by way of uncooked stuff) and fastball (below-average at simply 90–92 mph) are enabled by his exact really feel for location.

The Yankees coaxed slightly extra warmth out of Thorpe (who sat 88–91 in school) throughout his time there, however not sufficient to present him impression velocity. He’ll throw the occasional cutter or curveball in an apparent fastball depend to maintain hitters guessing, however these pitches don’t presently have any extra utility than that, although I believe the cutter finally will. This can be a very polished 23-year-old who, given San Diego’s tendency to push prospects shortly, is prone to seize maintain of an MLB rotation spot within the upcoming season. We’re speaking about plus command of a plus-plus changeup right here; he can be an offseason Prime 100 prospect right here at FanGraphs.

Lastly, Higashioka will function the backup catcher behind Luis Campusano. The Yankees had six catchers on their 40-man roster previous to the commerce. With Gary Sánchez and Austin Nola each free brokers, San Diego was left skinny at catcher. Quite a lot of groups are skinny at catcher, however the free-agent market isn’t exactly teeming with great options, and golf equipment who wish to play on the high of that market are most likely going to must cough up {dollars} that the Padres can’t afford to spend on a backup. Buying the 33-year-old southern California native permits them to patch that gap of their roster with out utilizing free company.

So what do the Padres do subsequent? They badly want a middle fielder now that Grisham is gone. There are rumors they’re concentrating on Korean outfielder Jung-hoo Lee in free company; you possibly can learn my scouting report on him here. He’ll possible want time to regulate to MLB pitching a lot in the identical approach that Ha-Seong Kim did, however over time, he tasks as an above-average defender in middle with plus really feel for contact, although it might take a swing change, elevated physicality, or each for him to hit for energy over right here. I’m wondering if no matter international advertising and marketing windfall the Padres may take pleasure in because of having possibly the 2 greatest and most well-known Korean gamers in baseball on their group on the identical time would permit them to hit the fuel on paying Lee greater than different groups.

There are actually solely three or 4 good-gloved center field free agents who I’d think about anyplace close to San Diego’s worth vary. The Padres drafted Cody Bellinger’s brother Cole out of highschool, and I’m certain Logan White is shut with the household, however I can’t think about they discover a technique to pay him. I’d wager in the event that they requested Fernando Tatis Jr. to play middle area that he’d discover a technique to do it nicely; he appears athletically able to absolutely anything if given sufficient time to regulate.

A middle area addition or Tatis transfer would permit the Padres to give attention to discovering nook bats. Our current roster projection for them has substandard choices at most nook positions. Jake Cronenworth’s defensive versatility implies that the Padres might be open to hitters from nearly any nook spot both by way of commerce or free company. Inner choices not mirrored in our present roster projection embody top-15 prospect Jackson Merrill, who started to see time at non-shortstop positions final 12 months; outfield prospect Jakob Marsee, who crushed Fall League; and utilityman Graham Pauley, a scaled-down Corey Seager swing clone who has no place.

There’s nonetheless work to be performed right here if the Padres are going to compete in 2024, they usually received’t be capable of recreate Soto’s manufacturing with anybody participant. However additionally they haven’t painted themselves right into a nook; you possibly can clearly see some avenues that they will traverse to get there, and it’s nonetheless reasonably early within the offseason.