[ad_1]
Together with this publish, Tim Dierkes held a stay Cubs-centric chat. Click here to learn the transcript.
After falling simply in need of a Wild Card berth, the Cubs should re-sign Cody Bellinger or change his manufacturing, whereas additionally contemplating enhancements on the infield corners and within the beginning rotation.
Assured Contracts
Possibility Choices
- Marcus Stroman, SP: can decide out of remaining one 12 months, $21MM
- Drew Smyly, SP/RP: can decide out of remaining one 12 months, $11MM
- Kyle Hendricks, SP: $16MM membership choice with a $1.5MM buyout
- Cody Bellinger, CF/1B: $25MM mutual choice with a $5MM buyout
- Yan Gomes, C: $6MM membership choice with a $1MM buyout
- Brad Boxberger, RP: $5MM mutual choice with an $800K buyout
Arbitration-Eligible Gamers (service time in parentheses; salary projections via Matt Swartz)
Free Brokers
The Cubs usually weren’t being picked as a playoff staff within the preseason, however by the tip of August a Wild Card berth was wanting doubtless. As a substitute, the staff performed to a 12-16 document in September and in the end fell one win in need of the Marlins and Diamondbacks (who held the tiebreaker over them anyway). The form and timing of the staff’s document was painful for followers, however ultimately this was merely an 83-win staff.
Final winter’s large addition, Dansby Swanson, performed nearly in addition to the Cubs might’ve hoped. Mirroring the staff as a complete, the form of his contributions was lower than splendid, as Swanson limped to an 86 wRC+ over the season’s closing two months. Nonetheless, Swanson hit properly sufficient total and led all MLB shortstops in defensive Outs Above Common en path to a 4.9 fWAR season that bested fellow 2022-23 free brokers Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts, and Carlos Correa.
The Cubs are in nice form within the center infield, having added a 12 months of management for Nico Hoerner in a late March extension. Hoerner offered related worth to his double play accomplice Swanson, rating fourth amongst second baseman in Outs Above Common and posting 4.7 WAR.
On the catching entrance, free agent signing Tucker Barnhart was inked to a two-year deal within the offseason however was launched by August. The lion’s share of labor behind the dish went to Yan Gomes, whose 821 2/3 defensive innings at catcher had been his most since 2018. Gomes put in strong work, and the Cubs determine to select up his choice. However at age 36, he can’t be counted on for a similar workload in 2024.
Longtime Cubs catching prospect Miguel Amaya made the staff for good in June, supplanting Barnhart. Amaya hit properly sufficient total in his 156 plate appearances, although he didn’t obtain constant taking part in time from supervisor and former catcher David Ross. The Gomes-Amaya job share appears prone to shift extra towards Amaya in 2024, and a major addition at catcher appears unlikely.
The Cubs are additionally set on the outfield corners with Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki, each of whom are beneath contract via 2026 after Happ’s April extension. Much like the Cubs’ center infield mixture, Happ performed about in addition to could possibly be anticipated. Suzuki’s season was uneven, however could possibly be seen as a leap ahead given a wRC+ bounce from 116 to 126. He had a brutal June, maybe affected by neck points. However as soon as the calendar turned to August, Suzuki began hitting like a famous person. His 183 wRC+ over the season’s closing two months ranked third in all of baseball, behind solely Mookie Betts and Marcell Ozuna.
The Cubs might have Suzuki to anchor their lineup subsequent 12 months, as a result of Cody Bellinger’s wonderful bounceback season could lead on him to greener pastures. Bellinger, 28, made good on his one-year deal to guide the Cubs with a 134 wRC+. The doubtless Comeback Participant of the 12 months cut up his time between heart area and first base, slicing his strikeouts dramatically and crushing 26 residence runs. Bellinger began out robust in April however had been within the midst of a stoop upon hitting the IL in late Might for a bruised knee. After a monthlong absence, Bellinger did not hit the bottom working.
One thing clicked round June twenty seventh, and Bellinger amazingly hit .414/.448/.682 with 11 residence runs over his subsequent 172 plate appearances. It was, fairly probably, a $100MM scorching streak. Bellinger posted a 103 wRC+ from August thirteenth ahead, however on the entire did properly to erase the 2020-22 struggles that led him to a one-year deal.
These struggles had been explained away by agent Scott Boras as injury-related, with Boras saying the Dodgers had “requested [Bellinger] to play with a 35% power deficiency.” Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman called that “a really handy narrative,” and Boras subsequently walked again his feedback considerably. Understanding how Bellinger went from the 2019 MVP, to one of many worst hitters in baseball, and again to a 4 WAR degree this 12 months is essential in valuing Bellinger as a free agent and projecting his long-term future. Groups may also be contemplating Bellinger’s Statcast metrics, which as MLBTR’s Steve Adams pointed out in mid-August, could function purple flags.
I’ve seen ideas {that a} staff might signal Bellinger for $150MM this winter. My guess, with out speaking to Boras, is that the agent has a quantity roughly twice that top as a goal. Bellinger has youth, the power to play a premium defensive place, elite offense in his contract 12 months, and an MVP award on his shelf. He’s additionally reaching free company in a market devoid of MVP-caliber place participant expertise, other than Shohei Ohtani. Proper now, I’m setting my expectations north of $250MM.
Circling again to the Cubs, they’ll scarcely afford to lose Bellinger, but when I’m within the right neighborhood on the contract my guess is that the Ricketts household gained’t have the urge for food for it. The Cubs fairly clearly moved towards the least costly of the Huge 4 shortstops final winter in Swanson, and don’t seem to have made aggressive provides to any of the opposite three. Cubs possession final shopped within the luxurious aisle of free company about six years in the past, touchdown the #2 free agent in Yu Darvish. That they had achieved the identical for Jon Lester and Jason Heyward beforehand, so there may be precedent. It’s simply that it’s been some time, and there have been a number of missed alternatives to signal prime free brokers that may have supplemented the staff properly. Bellinger additionally feels significantly dangerous on a megadeal, given how far he’d fallen to need to signal a one-year deal within the first place.
One other level in opposition to the Cubs signing Bellinger is the presence of Pete Crow-Armstrong. If the Cubs consider in Crow-Armstrong, then Bellinger might spend most of a theoretical big contract at first base, the place a 120 wRC+ bat (my estimate) is so much much less thrilling. This 12 months Crow-Armstrong conquered Double-A, did positive at Triple-A for a month, after which bought a giant league look in mid-September. Crow-Armstrong drew just one begin earlier than the Cubs had been eradicated, and went hitless in 19 plate appearances. However very like Swanson and Hoerner, Crow-Armstrong’s calling card is elite protection. Crow-Armstrong’s protection is nice sufficient that he could also be a reputable common at age 22 subsequent 12 months even when he doesn’t hit a lot.
If Bellinger costs himself out of the Cubs’ vary they usually resolve to lean into the elite defender thought, Matt Chapman could possibly be a goal. This 12 months, the Cubs had 4 completely different gamers log 150+ innings at third base: Nick Madrigal, Patrick Knowledge, Miles Mastrobuoni, and commerce deadline pickup Jeimer Candelario. Madrigal and Mastrobuoni didn’t hit sufficient to suit as regulars at third base, whereas Knowledge was used as a short-side platoon bat and struck out practically 37% of the time.
Chapman is one thing of a Dansby Swanson sort participant, solely at third base. He makes his repute on his glove, however is mostly good for a 110 wRC+ bat. With Chapman, Crow-Armstrong, Swanson, and Hoerner, the Cubs might have 4 top-five defenders on the sector. That stated, Chapman turns 31 in April, and his bat was even streakier this 12 months than any of the aforementioned Cubs.
Candelario raked for about three weeks upon becoming a member of the Cubs, after which he was horrible for the ultimate month or so, a stint that included a decrease again pressure. In a skinny market, he could possibly be in line for a four-year deal, but might nonetheless be a safer signing for the Cubs than Bellinger or Chapman. He additionally has the power to play first base, a place the place Eric Hosmer, Trey Mancini, and Matt Mervis did not impress. Mervis, 26 in April, hit properly at Triple-A and stays an choice at first base or designated hitter. Rhys Hoskins or Brandon Belt is also prospects at first base, if the Cubs are looking for a free agent on a short-term deal.
The Mets’ Pete Alonso represents an intriguing first base goal for the Cubs. In August, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic famous that the Cubs had been among the many groups that spoke to the Mets about Alonso previous to the deadline. MLBTR projects a $22MM wage for Alonso in 2024, his closing 12 months earlier than free company. Buying and selling for Alonso would characterize a method to change Bellinger’s bat with out making a long-term dedication. The pure query is who would the Mets need from the Cubs for Alonso? I don’t love a few of the uncommon precedents for this sort of commerce, such because the Teoscar Hernandez or Paul Goldschmidt offers, so I’ll simply say that Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns would doubtless search two MLB-ready potential regulars, and the Cubs may at the least have a number of choices on the place participant facet in Mervis or Kevin Alcantara.
The opposite large bat who could possibly be out there in commerce this winter is the Padres’ Juan Soto, additionally beneath management for yet one more season. Assuming the Cubs don’t need to push Happ again into heart area, Soto is a less-than-ideal match position-wise since he performs the nook outfield. A Soto acquisition could be all about his bat, nevertheless, and his glove is shaky sufficient that elevated DH time could be a positive one-year resolution if the participant is on board. The associated fee in younger controllable gamers could be vital, and Soto will earn greater than Alonso subsequent 12 months. I do assume the Cubs might pull off a Soto or Alonso commerce with out parting with Crow-Armstrong.
One variable in all of that is the Cubs’ plan for Christopher Morel. Morel put up a powerful 119 wRC+ this 12 months in 429 plate appearances with Statcast information to match, although at occasions his strikeout fee reached dizzying heights. Although he’s solely 24 years previous and has the velocity and arm to play nearly anyplace, the Cubs have but to search out Morel a place. Morel took about 38% of the staff’s DH at-bats, and in his 220-game profession he’s performed all three outfield spots in addition to second base, shortstop, and third base.
From the skin, there’s a reasonably apparent long-term resolution right here: make a significant offseason effort to show the child to play a reliable third base. Morel was one in all six gamers the Cubs used on the scorching nook this 12 months, but logged solely 39 1/3 innings there. Morel is just too younger and athletic to be pigeon-holed as a DH, but additionally doesn’t appear to be he’ll flourish in a super-utility position. If the Cubs don’t assume he can play common protection at any place, maybe Morel will wind up as commerce bait.
As poor as this winter’s market is for place gamers, it does provide a good variety of DH varieties who ought to obtain short-term contracts, equivalent to Belt, J.D. Martinez, Mitch Garver, and Justin Turner. Such a participant could possibly be a match for the Cubs as a kind of Trey Mancini substitute. Like Barnhart, Mancini was launched earlier than finishing the primary 12 months of a two-year deal.
Earlier than we get into one different free agent DH, who has additionally served as the most effective pitchers on the planet, let’s check out the Cubs’ payroll scenario. Underneath the Ricketts household, the Cubs have reached the aggressive stability tax threshold in 2016, 2019, and 2020, although the taxes weren’t truly paid in 2020. Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer noted to reporters in October that “We’re in a spot now the place our books are clear long run,” and that “There’s been a willingness [by ownership] to go over [the CBT] up to now.”
The primary CBT threshold is $237MM in 2024, and the second is $257MM. The Cubs did exceed the second threshold in 2019, so a $260MM payroll subsequent 12 months wouldn’t be with out precedent in a CBT sense. Nonetheless, talking to reporters about payroll in October, Tom Ricketts stated, “We had been aggressive this 12 months. I believe we’ll keep at these ranges.” He was non-committal on exceeding the CBT.
There are a number of key variables in saying the place the Cubs’ payroll will sit when the offseason actually begins, however the one through which I’m least assured is Marcus Stroman’s standing. We’ll get to Stroman shortly, but when Stroman and Smyly keep put, Hendricks and Gomes’ choices are exercised, and some gamers are non-tendered, the Cubs’ CBT payroll might sit round $211MM. That’d drop to round $188MM if Stroman opts out. It’d be troublesome for the Cubs to signal Shohei Ohtani and add different wanted items with out entering into the $260MM vary. I don’t assume that’s doubtless, however let’s discuss Ohtani anyway.
Again in 2017, the Theo Epstein-led Cubs made a strong enough initial pitch to Ohtani to be one of many participant’s seven finalists – the one one situated within the Midwest. Except for geography, the shortage of the DH within the NL on the time was a significant stumbling block. Now, the Cubs have a DH spot and Ohtani will probably be a free agent with out contract restrictions. Ohtani had elbow surgical procedure in September and won’t pitch till 2025, but we nonetheless consider he’ll require a median annual worth in extra of $40MM and a contract exceeding $500MM.
The Dodgers determine to loom massive on Ohtani, as a perennial contender that performs on the West Coast. The Cubs can’t do something about the place they play, and one 83-win season hardly positions them as a daily contender. It’s potential that a lot of the different groups bidding on Ohtani can also’t make a powerful declare as a perennial contender. So I believe past an enormous contract provide that I’m not satisfied the Cubs would make, the staff must guarantee Ohtani that they’re including different key items this winter and can mission to recurrently make the playoffs.
It’s been 4 years because the Cubs truly paid the CBT, and 6 since they’ve signed a top-two free agent. Ohtani is a once-in-a-generation participant, and this may be the one offseason through which he’s technically out there to any staff. It’s potential the Cubs are planning a run at Ohtani, however they don’t appear to be a favourite.
As I discussed, Stroman’s opt-out resolution is hard to foretell after a season through which he began fairly robust however tanked in his final 11 outings and by some means fractured his rib cage cartilage. MLBTR’s Anthony Franco wrote about this a number of weeks in the past for Front Office subscribers. The factors in favor of the opt-out, in line with Anthony: “It’s potential he’d want to take the robust one-year wage, keep in a spot the place he’s snug, and wager on higher well being when he’d be a real free agent subsequent winter.” Anthony went on to counter, “That stated, I don’t assume it’s fairly as doubtless as many Cub followers may count on. Whereas Stroman’s worth is down, there’d nonetheless be multi-year provides on the desk if he did check the market. Whereas they may come at a decrease annual wage than $21MM, the general assure must be robust sufficient to make opting out nonetheless worthwhile.” Latest precedent in favor of Stroman opting out: Nathan Eovaldi turning down a qualifying provide from the Crimson Sox to signal a two-year, $34MM deal.
Justin Steele made a run on the Cy Younger this 12 months in a breakout season. Jameson Taillon upset in his first 12 months as a Cub, however his peripheral stats counsel he can get again to the low-4.00s ERA pitcher the staff thought they had been getting. Ricketts indicated Hendricks will doubtless return, which is sensible after a strong bounceback season. If Stroman stays, that’d be 4 rotation spots locked up with veteran arms. Javier Assad, Jordan Wicks, and Hayden Wesneski might compete for the fifth starter job, with Drew Smyly round in a swingman position. Prime pitching prospect Cade Horton reached Double-A this 12 months and will make the leap to the bigs in some unspecified time in the future in 2024. Ben Brown and Caleb Kilian could possibly be within the combine as properly, although they didn’t have success at Triple-A this 12 months.
The Cubs’ 4.26 rotation ERA ranked sixth within the Nationwide League. Working largely the identical group on the market in 2024 wouldn’t be thrilling, however it’s not out of the query. Even when Stroman stays, I can see the Cubs making some kind of rotation addition to enhance their depth. However I assume they wouldn’t thoughts the payroll flexibility they’d acquire if he opts out, and would change into extra aggressive available in the market in that case.
The free agent marketplace for beginning pitching this winter seems to be robust, led by 25-year-old Orix Buffaloes ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Yamamoto checks a variety of packing containers for the Cubs, very like Seiya Suzuki did. Yamamoto is within the prime of his profession, which is sort of by no means the case for a free agent starter. A staff might scale back his AAV by stretching the years to eight or so, they usually’d nonetheless solely be committing via his age-32 season. Plus, the posting payment paid to the Buffaloes doesn’t rely in opposition to the CBT. Hoyer took a scouting trip to Japan in September, the place Yamamoto and lefty Shota Imanaga had been among the many gamers he noticed.
As dangerous as a $200MM+ deal for Yamamoto could possibly be, the remainder of the highest finish of the free agent market would additionally require a leap of religion, with gamers like Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, Aaron Nola, Sonny Gray, and probably Eduardo Rodriguez. The commerce market doesn’t characteristic a ton of apparent targets, other than maybe Shane Bieber.
The Cubs’ makeshift bullpen additionally ranked sixth within the NL in ERA. The group had the NL’s highest strikeout and stroll charges, so it was a blended bag. David Ross leaned the toughest on Adbert Alzolay, Mark Leiter Jr., and Julian Merryweather within the second half. MLBTR tasks the trio to earn lower than $6MM in whole subsequent 12 months, so the Cubs have good worth there. Alzolay, 29 in March, broke out because the staff’s nearer this 12 months however hit the IL at a key level in September with a forearm pressure. The wheels began wobbling on Leiter and Merryweather as properly.
Out of desperation, Ross additionally used Jose Cuas, Smyly, Daniel Palencia, and Javier Assad in key spots in September. They’ll all be within the combine subsequent 12 months. Lefty Brandon Hughes must be again after lacking a lot of the season as a consequence of knee surgical procedure. On his manner again from March 2022 Tommy John surgical procedure, Codi Heuer had June surgery to restore an elbow fracture. His timeline is at the moment unknown.
Hoyer’s bargain-buy veterans final winter had been Michael Fulmer and Brad Boxberger. Each had been non-factors this 12 months as a consequence of accidents and ineffectiveness. The Cubs haven’t signed a reliever to a multiyear deal since Craig Kimbrel in June of 2019, as a substitute preferring low-cost one-year offers in current offseasons.
In making an attempt to foretell the Cubs’ offseason, payroll is the largest consideration. If the Cubs are to run, say, a $235MM CBT payroll and Stroman stays put, they’d have an estimated $24MM in AAV so as to add this winter. That wouldn’t be a ton of wiggle room, in distinction to the $88MM in AAV the Cubs added final winter. With Bellinger probably departing, it’s powerful to see the Cubs bettering upon 2023 and not using a notable payroll enhance.
[ad_2]
Source link
