When the Cubs introduced that they’d agreed to phrases with second baseman Nico Hoerner on a three-year contract extension on the eve of Opening Day again in March, the deal was thought to be a considerably stunning one across the league. As famous by MLBTR’s Anthony Franco on the time of the deal, it’s uncommon for a participant to signal an extension that buys out only one free agent yr as soon as eligible for arbitration. The deal that Hoerner and the Cubs agreed upon did simply that, nevertheless: the deal covers the 2024-26 campaigns, shopping for out Hoerner’s last two years of arbitration and his first yr as a free agent for a complete assure of $35MM.
That’s a reasonably hefty sum for a participant who was making simply over $2.5MM for the 2023 season after his first journey via arbitration. Hoerner was coming off a powerful season because the membership’s beginning shortstop in 2022, the place he gathered 4.0 fWAR because of sturdy protection at brief mixed with offense that was only a contact above league common (106 wRC+). Spectacular as that season was, there have been loads of questions on whether or not or not he would have the ability to replicate his 2022. Hoerner had struggled badly with accidents in 2021, lacking three months with forearm, hamstring, and indirect points. What’s extra, the membership’s offseason signing of Dansby Swanson pushed Hoerner to second base, the place his sturdy protection could be much less useful. Given these query marks, it was honest to surprise if the Cubs had been overvaluing their former first-round decide.
Luckily for either side, Hoerner’s 2023 marketing campaign was a serious step towards quieting any doubts relating to the choice to increase him. Issues about Hoerner as an injury-prone participant had been certainly quieted by him following up a 135-game marketing campaign final yr by spending simply eleven days of the season on the IL with 150 video games performed and a whopping 688 plate appearances, another than his 2021 and ’22 seasons mixed.
The same pattern sizes display how constant Hoerner’s manufacturing with the bat has been. After slashing .286/.341/.400 (106 wRC+) in 2021-22, Hoerner’s 2023 season was just about equivalent with a slash line of .283/.346/.383 with a wRC+ of 102. Although his energy dipped barely, he made up for it by strolling at an improved 7.1% clip whereas posting an exceptional 12.1% strikeout price. Solely seven certified hitters struck out much less usually than Hoerner in 2023, and of them solely Luis Arraez, Jose Ramirez, Ronald Acuna Jr. and Alex Bregman posted higher offensive seasons by measure of wRC+. His 88.6% contact price was third greatest in baseball this yr, behind solely Arraez and Steven Kwan.
Hoerner’s protection has been equally constant. His glovework at shortstop final yr was sturdy in 2022, with +10 Defensive Runs Saved per Fielding Bible and +13 Outs Above Common per Statcast. After transferring to second this yr, nevertheless, his protection has obtained even stronger marks. His +14 DRS in 2023 is the ninth-best determine amongst all infielders this season, whereas his +15 OAA ranks eighth amongst certified infielders. Solely Swanson, Ke’Bryan Hayes, and Andres Gimenez posted higher marks than Hoerner in line with each metrics this yr.
Along with repeating the elite strikeout price and center infield protection that made the Cubs need to prolong him within the first place, Hoerner’s added one other dimension to his recreation this yr by turning into one of many high base stealing threats within the majors. After stealing 20 bases in 2022, the 26-year-old took his baserunning to a different degree this season by swiping 43 luggage, fifth-most within the majors, in simply 50 makes an attempt. In line with Fangraphs’ all-encompassing baserunning metric, BsR, Hoerner’s 9.7 determine was second greatest in the entire main leagues behind solely rookie sensation Corbin Carroll, who turned simply the sixth participant this century to steal 50 bases in his rookie season.
Taking Hoerner’s protection, contract means, and baserunning collectively, his 2023 marketing campaign was value 4.7 fWAR, tied with Yandy Diaz and Cal Raleigh for the Twenty second-best determine within the sport. If Hoerner is ready to sustain something near this degree of manufacturing over the lifetime of his extension, a deal that left many scratching their heads at the beginning of the season will appear like a superb gamble by Chicago’s entrance workplace, and Hoerner may discover himself in line for a a lot bigger payday following the 2026 season, when he’ll nonetheless be simply 29 years previous.
