NFL Week 5 betting notes

After the primary 4 weeks featured a complete of 9 video games with no less than a landing unfold, Week 5 at the moment options six such video games. The most important unfold of the season is in Buffalo because the Payments are 14-point favorites over the Pittsburgh Steelers. Pittsburgh has not been that giant of an underdog since 1969. The Steelers are the one staff because the 1970 AFL/NFL merger to by no means be a 14-point underdog.

The second-biggest underdogs of the week are the Atlanta Falcons. By 4 weeks, the Falcons are the one staff unbeaten towards the unfold. Nevertheless, the most important cowl margin belongs to the Jacksonville Jaguars. This week, the Jaguars are of their largest favourite function since 2019. They’re laying 7 factors to the Houston Texans regardless of shedding eight straight head-to-head conferences.

For the primary time ever, two groups with successful information sq. off in London, however the unfold implies a mismatch. The Green Bay Packers are an 8-point favourite towards the New York Giants. During the last 15 seasons, groups favored by no less than 7 factors in worldwide video games are 7-0 ATS (6-0 ATS in London).

Season outcomes

• Underdogs: 8-7-1 ATS final week (35-25-3 ATS this season, .583)

• Unders: 8-8 final week (37-26-1 this season, .587)

• Atlanta: 4-0 ATS

• Detroit: 4-0 to the over

• 9 straight Indianapolis video games have gone beneath the full, together with all 4 this season.

• Indianapolis is 6-1 ATS and 5-2 outright in its previous seven video games as an underdog (1-0 outright this season).

• Indianapolis is 16-10-1 ATS after a loss beneath Frank Reich.

• Denver is 0-2 ATS this season as a favourite and 7-12 ATS in its previous 19 video games as a favourite (9-10 SU).

• Frank Reich is 11-6-2 ATS as a street underdog with 5 straight covers (4-1 SU).

• Indianapolis fails to cowl video games by 9.4 factors per recreation, the worst mark within the NFL.

• Since 2019, street groups are 32-21 ATS in Thursday video games (27-26 SU). Unders are 30-23 in Thursday video games.

• Prime-time unders are 9-4 this season and 98-72-3 since 2019.

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• During the last 15 seasons, groups favored by no less than 7 factors in worldwide video games are 7-0 ATS (6-0 ATS in London).

• Below Matt LaFleur, Inexperienced Bay is 34-19 ATS, one of the best mark within the league since 2019. They’re 24-16 ATS as favorites however 8-9 ATS as no less than 7-point favorites.

• New York is 2-0 outright as an underdog this season (+3.05 models).

• Pittsburgh has not been no less than a 14-point underdog since 1969. Pittsburgh is the one staff because the 1970 AFL/NFL merger to by no means be no less than a 14-point underdog. Pittsburgh’s largest underdog function because the merger is +13.5 towards Dallas in Tremendous Bowl XXX (which they misplaced by 10), and its largest underdog function beneath Mike Tomlin is 12 factors in final yr’s wild-card recreation towards Kansas Metropolis.

• Since Mike Tomlin was employed in 2007, Pittsburgh is 44-25-3 ATS as an underdog, the second-best mark within the league in that span. They’re 37-35 outright, the one staff with a successful file in that span. Tomlin is 11-2 ATS (7-6 SU) as an underdog of no less than 3.5 factors when Ben Roethlisberger is just not his quarterback, and he’s 7-1 ATS with out Large Ben as a least a six-point underdog.

• Josh Allen is 10-4-2 ATS as no less than a 7-point favourite, and he’s 6-2-2 ATS as double-digit favourite.

• Final season, first-round quarterbacks making their first profession NFL begins went 0-5 ATS.

• That is the most important unfold to date this season. The earlier excessive was in Week 2 when Inexperienced Bay lined a ten.5-point unfold towards Chicago.

• Cleveland is 7-12 ATS at dwelling beneath Kevin Stefanski.

• Kevin Stefanski is 9-19 ATS in convention video games.

• Brandon Staley is 1-3 outright and ATS as a street favourite, although he gained final week.

• The final 4 occasions Jacksonville was a favourite, it misplaced the sport outright, with three of these losses coming towards Houston.

• Jacksonville has not been a landing favourite since Week 8 of 2019 towards the New York Jets (-7), which can be the final time Jacksonville lined as a favourite.

• Houston has gained eight straight conferences (6-2 ATS).

• Jacksonville has the very best common cowl margin within the NFL (+14.3). That’s the finest mark by any staff by way of 4 video games since 2019 San Francisco (+15.3).

• Minnesota has did not cowl three straight video games.

• Chicago is 4-12 ATS as an underdog because the begin of final season. Justin Fields is 3-9 ATS as an underdog.

• Minnesota is 7-13 ATS as a favourite since 2020.

• Minnesota has lined 4 of the final 5 conferences.

• Minnesota didn’t take a bye following its London recreation final week. Groups are 2-3 outright and ATS with out taking a bye following their London video games.

• Detroit is 13-6 ATS as an underdog beneath Dan Campbell (11-2 ATS in previous 13 video games as underdog).

• Detroit has lined six straight street video games, however it’s 0-10-1 outright in its previous 11 street video games (0-9-1 beneath Dan Campbell).

• Invoice Belichick is 60-33-1 ATS after a loss with New England. He’s solely 12-12 ATS when approaching off no less than two straight losses (3-8 ATS with out Tom Brady).

• Seattle is 45-27-2 ATS as an underdog beneath Pete Carroll, together with 16-8-1 ATS previously 5 seasons.

• Geno Smith is 23-15 ATS in his profession, together with 10-2 ATS in his final 12 begins and 5-2 ATS with Seattle.

• Dennis Allen is 2-7 ATS in his profession as a favourite (0-2 ATS with New Orleans).

• New Orleans didn’t take a bye following its London recreation final week. Groups are 2-3 outright and ATS with out taking a bye following their London video games.

Miami Dolphins (-3) at New York Jets, Sunday at 1 ET

• Miami is 7-1 outright and ATS in its previous eight conferences. Miami has lined 4 straight street conferences and 10 of the previous 14 street conferences.

• New York is 1-5 outright and ATS in its previous six video games following a win (1-4 beneath Robert Saleh).

• New York is 3-7 ATS as a house underdog beneath Robert Saleh (1-6 ATS in previous seven video games).

• Over the previous 5 seasons, Miami is 13-7 ATS as a favourite.

• Over the previous 5 seasons, New York is 6-18 ATS in division video games. In that very same span, Miami is 17-8-1 ATS towards division opponents.

• Teddy Bridgewater is 42-21 ATS in his profession (.667). That’s the finest mark by any quarterbacks with no less than 40 begins within the Tremendous Bowl period. He’s 5-2 ATS as a street favourite, although he has solely been no less than a 3-point street favourite twice (2-0 ATS).

• Seven of the previous eight conferences have gone over the full.

• Atlanta is 0-7 outright and 1-5-1 ATS as no less than a 7-point underdog beneath Arthur Smith.

• Atlanta is 7-3-1 ATS on the street beneath Arthur Smith.

• Tom Brady is 10-0 outright and 9-1 ATS in his profession towards Atlanta, together with playoffs.

• During the last three seasons, Tennessee is 8-14 ATS as a favourite.

• Washington has did not cowl three straight video games.

• Seventeen of Ryan Tannehill’s 22 street begins with Tennessee have gone over the full.

• Carolina is 3-15 ATS in its previous 18 video games.

• All 4 San Francisco video games have gone beneath the full. Seven straight San Francisco video games have gone beneath courting again to final season’s postseason. Carolina’s previous three video games went beneath.

• Carolina is 17-5 ATS all-time towards San Francisco.

• Cooper Rush is 4-0 outright and ATS in his profession. Solely 5 quarterbacks to start their careers within the Tremendous Bowl period have began 5-0 each outright and ATS (Mike Kruczek, Kurt Warner, Ben Roethlisberger, Patrick Mahomes and Kyle Allen).

• Because the begin of final season, Dallas is 9-1 ATS on the street and 13-2 ATS in convention video games.

• Sean McVay is 16-9 ATS after a loss.

• Dallas is 6-1 outright and ATS as an underdog of 3-7 factors beneath Mike McCarthy with six straight wins. Dallas is 5-0 in that spot with out Dak Prescott.

• Arizona is 8-2 ATS as an underdog because the begin of final season. Nevertheless, each ATS losses got here at dwelling (0-2). Arizona is 20-10-1 ATS general as an underdog beneath Kliff Kingsbury.

• Arizona is 19-9 ATS in September/October beneath Kliff Kingsbury (12-3 ATS in October).

• Philadelphia has lined three straight video games.

• 9 straight Cincinnati video games have gone beneath the full courting again to final season, together with playoffs.

• Baltimore is 12-2-2 ATS when the road is between +3 and -3 since 2019, which was Lamar Jackson’s first full season as starter.

• Cincinnati has lined 4 straight video games as a street underdog.

• Unders are 10-2 in Cincinnati street video games because the begin of final season together with playoffs. Cincinnati is 9-3 ATS in these video games.

• Prime-time unders are 9-4 this season and 98-72-3 since 2019.

• Every of the previous 4 conferences have gone over the full.

• Patrick Mahomes is 7-1 outright and 6-2 ATS towards Las Vegas.

• Kansas Metropolis is 34-21 ATS in division video games beneath Andy Reid.

• Kansas Metropolis is 1-4 ATS in its previous 5 video games as a favourite.

• Prime-time unders are 9-4 this season and 98-72-3 since 2019.

• During the last 10 seasons, underdogs are 87-69-3 ATS in Monday video games, and underdogs of no less than 7 factors are 27-18-1 ATS.