Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens (Saturday 4.30pm ET/9.30pm GMT)
What the Texans must do to win: Head coach DeMeco Ryans must be aggressive on protection. The Ravens’ final defeat, a 33-31 loss to Cleveland in November, gives the blueprint. Given time, Lamar Jackson will choose groups aside. However the Browns blitzed him 33.3% of the time on passing downs as they knocked him out of his consolation zone. Cleveland pressured him into the one sport this season through which he has thrown a number of interceptions, and he accomplished simply 56.5% of his passes. Houston must up their present blitz price of 15.4%, in any other case Jackson will take every part they offer him.
What the Ravens must do to win: Jackson and Baltimore had been No 1 seeds within the 2019 season … and promptly misplaced to the Tennessee Titans of their first sport of the playoffs. They should be each bit as dominant on each side of the ball right here as they had been throughout the common season to keep away from an identical slip up. The Ravens’ protection is coming off every week’s relaxation and so they generated a league-best 31 turnovers within the common season. That, mixed with the truth that CJ Stroud will probably be in a lot colder situations in Baltimore than he’s used to beneath Houston’s retractable roof, might help maintain the demons at bay.
Key participant: Derek Stingley Jr, CB, Texans. Houston gave up the fewest passing touchdowns within the common season (17), owing to the belief positioned in Stingley to trace the opposition’s high receiver throughout the sphere. Stingley can field Zay Flowers out of the sport, main Jackson to carry on to the ball or to seek out checkdowns, which in flip create possibilities for sacks or tackles for a loss. Steven Nelson, who snagged an 82-yard pick-six that broke Cleveland’s again final week, is having fun with his most interesting yr so far at age 30 on the opposite aspect of the backfield. That speaks to how Ryans has impressed a roster that’s a lot better than the sum of its elements.
Prediction: Texans over Ravens. Momentum could also be a fable however Stroud and the Texans protection are going to check that principle. Ryans will get inventive to catch the Ravens chilly, main Houston to their first AFC championship sport.
Inexperienced Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers (Saturday 8.15pm ET/Sunday 1.15am GMT)
What the Packers must do to win: Matt LaFleur should not be afraid to focus on San Francisco’s strengths. Packers operating again Aaron Jones will be an excessive amount of to deal with even for high run-stoppers and is peaking on the proper second, whereas the 49ers’ passing protection have been rising stronger since Chase Younger joined the crew. Having to account for a full power Jones opens up the choice of play-fakes, which Jordan Love has excelled at since Inexperienced Bay’s revival from Week 9 onwards.
What the 49ers must do to win: Defend Brock Purdy. San Francisco will really feel as if they’ve all of the items in place to stride previous the Packers in an arguably simpler contest than final yr’s NFC championship sport, the place Purdy’s early exit with an elbow damage value the Niners pricey. The strain is on left sort out Trent Williams to ensure Purdy stays wholesome so he can let his ridiculously gifted array of receivers go to work. Kyle Shanahan has been resting Williams from observe to ensure he’s 100% prepared.
Key participant: Christian McCaffery, RB, 49ers. Inexperienced Bay’s mushy run protection is there for the taking with McCaffrey within the combine. The prohibitive favorite for offensive participant of the yr raced the 49ers to the No 1 seed, carving up opponents within the receiving and run sport. His elusive stop-and-go electrical energy accounted for 30% of San Francisco’s 6,773 offensive yards within the common season. He will probably be at full energy on Saturday after resting since New Yr’s Eve.
Prediction: 49ers over Packers. Shanahan’s skilled point-scoring machine has an excessive amount of firepower for Love’s younger pretenders. Inexperienced Bay will maintain it shut however that is San Francisco’s yr.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions (Sunday 3pm ET/8pm GMT)
What the Buccaneers must do to win: Tampa must win on each side of the ball once more to match their demolition of the Eagles. Baker Mayfield lit up Philadelphia’s secondary, as anticipated, however crucially made no severe errors. The Bucs have gained six of their previous seven to get right here, the one defeat coming when Mayfield helped lose the turnover battle 4-0 by throwing two interceptions. The protection has to remain purple scorching too as throughout these seven video games they gave the offense the right platform by conceding solely 15 factors a sport. Tampa additionally get pleasure from expertise to cease Detroit: seven of their beginning 11 on protection gained the Tremendous Bowl with the Bucs within the 2020 season. They will use the know-how that stifled Patrick Mahomes in that Tremendous Bowl to maintain the clamps on Jared Goff and Amon-Ra St Brown.
What the Lions must do to win: Don’t change a factor. The Cowboys falling flat on their face gifted Detroit one other residence playoff sport for Lions followers to devour whereas skipping a date with the 49ers. The noise was unimaginable in opposition to the Rams as was coach Dan Campbell’s moxie in calling a cross play for St Brown to ice the sport when the safer guess was to run and punt. Simply don’t let the outcome, if Inexperienced Bay upset San Francisco the night time earlier than, distract from getting the job completed.
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Key gamers: David Montgomery/Jahmyr Gibbs, RBs, Lions. The distinction between the Rams and Lions within the wildcard spherical was effectivity within the purple zone created by operating the ball. Detroit racked up three touchdowns from three journeys whereas LA discovered nothing from their three. The Bucs have an excellent run protection – the Eagles had been the newest to be stifled final week – however splashy lengthy runs usually are not the place Montgomery and Gibbs go to work. The pair’s tempo and energy, notably deadly briefly yardage conditions, boosts the Lions’ ruthless purple zone effectivity (Detroit rating 65.7% of the time contained in the 20-yard line, the second-best price within the league).
Prediction: Lions over Buccaneers. Campbell’s vitality whipping up the Ford Subject crowd, combined with the crew’s on-field swagger, overwhelms Tampa Bay. Mayfield’s comeback yr ends right here, deafened by the Lions’ roar.
Kansas Metropolis Chiefs at Buffalo Payments (Sunday 6.30pm ET/11.3opm GMT)
What the Chiefs must do to win: Look to Mahomes to prepared the ground. The quarterback has gained 38 of 49 video games away from residence within the common season, that’s the most effective profitable share in NFL historical past amongst QBs who’ve performed at the very least 14 on the highway. The Chiefs’ extremely expert protection must maintain their tails up, realizing that if they will stymie Josh Allen then Mahomes has the standard and weight of sustained success to again them up. Mahomes was a postseason underdog in February final yr and that turned out simply wonderful.
What the Payments must do to win: Buffalo must maintain Mahomes down. They did so in their 20-17 win over Kansas City in December, which the Payments used as a launchpad to take 4 very important wins from their final 4 video games. The important thing all through their late cost was taking opposing quarterbacks out of the equation. In that closing quartet just one opposition receiver discovered the top zone, whereas opposing QBs averaged simply 183 yards in opposition to them. Two of these 4 passers had been Tua Tagovailoa and Dak Prescott, the gold and bronze medalists in complete yardage from this season. Together with the simple takedown of Pittsburgh on Monday, the Payments protection has generated 9 takeaways since beating the Chiefs. In the event that they maintain enjoying as fiercely, Allen could have a wonderful shot at toppling Kansas Metropolis for the primary time in three postseason makes an attempt.
Key participant: Josh Allen, QB, Payments. Buffalo’s linchpin dominated Pittsburgh. His 52-yard touchdown run on third down showcased how shortly he can put an opposition away when it issues. Allen’s early season struggles with strain led to a mess of intercepted passes however the quarterback has thrown 13 touchdowns whereas delivering a 96.7 passer ranking when pressured, the NFL’s finest figures per PFF. He had a simple experience in opposition to the TJ Watt-less Steelers, so might want to keep targeted to deal with every part the Chiefs and edge rusher George Karlaftis throw at him.
Prediction: Payments over Chiefs. Buffalo are owed one by the Chiefs within the postseason. Are you actually going to guess in opposition to this model of Allen?
