Mookie Betts Is (Mostly) Fine

When Mookie Betts scuffled by means of the primary couple weeks of the 2022 season, the Dodgers and their followers had trigger for concern. The 29-year-old proper fielder was coming off the worst season of his eight-year main league profession, one through which he was beset by accidents. With properly over $300 million nonetheless coming his manner over the following 20 years (a superb chunk of which is deferred), this appeared like an inopportune time for him to exhibit that he was already properly into his decline.

One four-week (and counting) scorching streak later, it seems that stories of Betts’ demise have been drastically exaggerated. His total numbers don’t soar off the web page resulting from his sluggish begin, however on this 12 months’s tough offensive atmosphere, his .263/.354/.482 line is nice for a 141 wRC+, which ranks 14th within the NL, and his 1.6 WAR is tied for sixth. He’s been significantly scorching recently, hitting .360/.429/.840 with three doubles and three homers over his previous six video games.

Betts might have created some unrealistic expectations after being acquired by the Dodgers in a protracted five-player blockbuster in February 2020. He proceeded to ink a 12-year, $365 million deal in July, then assist his new crew win its first championship in 32 years — and his second in three. Within the pandemic-shortened marketing campaign, he hit .292/.366/.562 for a 147 wRC+, his highest mark except for his 2018 AL MVP-winning marketing campaign (185). His 2.9 WAR positioned third within the league, he completed second within the NL MVP voting, and he placed on a tour de force throughout the postseason, exhibiting off his expertise on the plate, on the bases, and within the discipline on a nightly foundation, proper up by means of the World Sequence-clinching Recreation 6 through which he arrange the tying run with a scorching double that was simply the Dodgers’ second hit of the night time, sped residence with the go-ahead run on an infield grounder, and added an insurance coverage run by way of a late homer.

That season proved too robust an act to observe, significantly as Betts handled quite a lot of illnesses — decrease again stiffness, left shoulder soreness, an allergic response, a abdomen bug — within the first half of 2021. “Mookie Betts Has Been in a Funk,” I wrote at a time the person was carrying a 131 wRC+, that whereas noting that the parched offensive atmosphere meant that his struggles weren’t almost as unhealthy as they seemed. Betts made the NL All-Star crew; he withdrew resulting from his minor accidents, however bracketed the All-Star break with a 12-for-16 binge good for 25 complete bases. He continued to battle his physique, touchdown on the injured listing in late July with irritation in his proper hip, and performed simply 5 video games after returning in early August earlier than occurring the shelf once more, this time with a definitive analysis: the recurring ache and irritation in his hip was brought on by a bone spur, although it wasn’t within the labrum space of the hip.

Thereafter, the Dodgers have been capable of assist Betts handle the ache by way of cortisone pictures, and he completed the 12 months with a .264/.367/.487 line and, sure, the identical funky 131 wRC+. His harm left its footprints, as he performed in simply 122 video games, stole a full-season low 10 bases (he had the identical complete in 55 video games the 12 months earlier than), and was under common by OAA (-2) for the primary time.

Surprisingly, Betts did not require offseason surgery to take away the bone spur, and didn’t even require an extra MRI. As an alternative he was capable of strengthen the world by way of rehab, and reported to camp in prime form. “I did some good work to get again wholesome and I’m able to go,” he told reporters.

Whereas Betts doubled off the Rockies’ Kyle Freeland on Opening Day, he began the season in a 7-for-41 funk, including only one further extra-base hit in his first 11 video games and never barreling a single ball. “It’s simply me,” he said on April 22 when requested whether or not his issues have been bodily, and he admitted that the psychological facet of the stoop had momentarily gotten the higher of him:

“I can’t blame it on the hip, I can’t blame it on anything. It’s all me. You must take possession for sucking…

…”It’s sort of robust to give attention to one factor when a whole lot of issues are sort of going fallacious. You must be mentally robust and, you recognize, I wasn’t. I used to be not mentally robust and my teammates stayed on me. … You simply kinda let it get to you after which it simply compounds. I take full possession of letting it compound.”

These phrases got here after Betts homered twice in opposition to the Padres — one among them by way of his first barrel of the season — whereas getting on base 5 instances, constructing on a two-hit recreation two days earlier. Since that 7-for-41 begin, he’s batting .302/.387/.594 (178 wRC+) with eight homers, a 9.8% barrel price, and a 48.8% hard-hit price. Even then, nonetheless, he’s averaging solely 89.8 mph when it comes to exit velocity.

Except 2018 — a season throughout which the Crimson Sox have been discovered to have illegally stolen signs, albeit to not the extent that the Astros did — Betts’ batted balls have not often lit up Statcast. That season apart, his highest common exit velo, barrel price, hard-hit price, and Statcast anticipated stats got here in 2019:

Circa 2019, Betts’ common exit velo positioned within the 82nd percentile, and his barrel price (92nd), hard-hit price (ninetieth), and xwOBA (98th) have been even greater, roughly elite. These standings all fell in 2020 and once more in ’21, however not uniformly; final 12 months his exit velo, barrel, and xwOBA ranged from the 67th percentile to the 72nd, however his hard-hit price was down on the forty eighth percentile. On this younger season — the place he does have 112 batted ball occasions, properly previous the purpose the place exit velo, barrel, and hard-hit charges stabilize) — that exit velo is simply within the forty ninth percentile however his barrel and hard-hit charges are within the 66th and 67th, respectively, and his xwOBA within the 79th.

You’ll discover the yellow cell within the desk above. Statcast tracks weak contact, which is any batted ball underneath 60 mph, no matter launch angle, and contains bunts; you possibly can disregard these, nonetheless, as Betts hasn’t even tried a bunt since 2016. His weak contact price is almost triple final 12 months’s price, and nearly as excessive as his barrel price! That’s one thing you don’t see daily.

Then again, contemplate Betts’ xSLG. I didn’t monitor his sample above, however he’s presently within the 81st percentile, his highest placement of any of this 12 months’s Statcast figures I’ve cited, and his highest in that space since 2019, when residence run charges have been at an all-time excessive. By xSLG, his rolling price is, if not at its peak, then in a spread that outdoors of 2018-19 he has solely fleetingly attained:

All of which is a long-winded manner of claiming that whereas his efficiency up to now has been uneven, Betts seems to be effective in relation to making contact, significantly in a 12 months when offense is down.

That stated, lurking in Betts pitch-type splits is one thing which may be trigger for concern: He’s having hassle with four-seam fastballs:

On his Statcast web page, Betts’ downside is obscured by the inclusion of sinkers and cutters — each of which he typically mashes to at least one diploma or one other – within the “fastball” grouping; by these measures his xSLG has fallen from final 12 months’s .552 to .488 and his xwOBA from .394 to .372. Drops, to make sure, however not a giant deal when the pattern dimension is taken into account, and greater than offset by his better success in opposition to breaking and offspeed pitches. The issue exhibits up in much more stark phrases utilizing a 95-mph cutoff:

I ought to level out that regardless of these meager performances, Betts isn’t whiffing on the warmers. His swinging strike price on all four-seamers has ranged from 4.2% to five.2% in 4 years out of the previous 5 (his 2020 price of two.4% being the outlier); this 12 months, it’s at 4.6%. He’s whiffed on simply 4 fastballs 95 mph or greater this season, lower than one per week. That’s not his downside — high quality of contact on these fastballs is. He hasn’t barreled a four-seamer of any velocity this 12 months, and whereas just one such ball classifies as weak contact, his x-stats recommend he’s producing a whole lot of routine outs.

On condition that, it shouldn’t come as a lot of a shock that Betts is fighting elevated four-seamers:

The latter-day Betts typically hasn’t produced excessive batting averages in opposition to such pitches, however he often does handle some energy — however not this 12 months, not less than not but.

The samples clearly aren’t giant, however I believe it’s truthful to say that Betts’ deteriorating efficiency in opposition to four-seamers is a trigger for concern, even whereas he’s typically acting at a excessive degree, remaining an exceptionally disciplined hitter who produces excessive contact charges (although his 16.5% strikeout price is a profession excessive) and energy. His pace appears to have taken a success amid final 12 months’s accidents; he positioned within the 72nd to 76th percentiles from 2016-19, was as much as the 87th percentile within the shortened ’20 season — he didn’t have a complete season to put on down — however all the way down to the 53rd final 12 months and the forty eighth this 12 months. I can let you know from gazing at his Statcast web page for the previous few days (a very regular factor to do, why do you ask?) that he was within the thirty ninth percentile earlier this week, in order that’s on the rise. Likewise for his outfield jumps, which place him within the 69th percentile, up from the 61st final 12 months and proper round the place he was in 2018-19. By the small-sample metrics (2 DRS, 2.0 UZR, 1 OAA) or the attention take a look at, his outfield protection is wanting fairly good:

Significantly on condition that he’s not calling Fenway Park residence, that he’s hitting a deadened ball, and that — like the remainder of us — he’s getting older, the Betts that we noticed in 2018 most likely isn’t coming again. Nonetheless, the one which the Dodgers have, the one whose rest-of-season projection would depart him with a 145 wRC+ and 6.8 WAR, seems to be simply effective.