Miami Dolphins vs. Green Bay Packers preview: Aaron Rodgers’ future, Christian Watson emergence, more

The Miami Dolphins return house on Sunday having misplaced their final three video games, however sitting within the last spot within the AFC playoff picture and capable of almost lock themselves into the postseason with a victory. For Miami’s Week 16 opponent, they may face the Green Bay Packers in a Christmas Day sport. Can the Dolphins finish their shedding streak and enhance on their 8-6 file?

The 2022 Packers aren’t the staff that completed 13-4 in 2021 or 13-3 in 2020 and 2019. There have been struggles we aren’t used to seeing from Inexperienced Bay this yr, and they’re at present 6-8 and could possibly be eradicated from playoff competition this week. It’s a unusual yr for the Packers when trying on the staff from the skin. However, how has this season been for a fan of the Packers, watching each single week?

I spoke with Jon Meerdink from Acme Packing Company, SB Nation’s Packers staff website, to get a greater image of who Inexperienced Bay is that this yr. We mentioned the emergence of vast receiver Christian Watson, what the longer term for quarterback Aaron Rodgers is likely to be, the working again duo of Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon, and the struggles the Packers’ protection have had this yr.

The Packers’ offense appears to have found out some issues over the previous few weeks, particularly with the emergence of vast receiver Christian Watson. Inexperienced Bay’s second-round draft choose this yr, Watson was slowed initially of the yr as he handled an harm throughout coaching camp, however now he seems to be at 100% each by way of well being and in catching as much as the pace of the sport (minus possibly final week when quarterback Aaron Rodgers was bothered with Watson not in search of a fast move on the purpose line). He has seven touchdowns within the final 5 video games, although he was held out of the endzone final week. What’s working so nicely with Watson and the way can Miami make him uncomfortable?

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The Packers have achieved a superb job of placing Watson in conditions the place he can do what he does greatest: run actually quick. They’ve actually prioritized letting him stretch defenses horizontally, each as a receiver and a runner. Most of his massive performs right here within the second half of the season have concerned him working throughout the protection, although he additionally received free for one pure vertical shot, too. Nonetheless, evidently the horizontal sport is what the Packers have actually been in search of.

I feel if I used to be going to assault Watson, I’d attempt to be bodily with him. One of many massive questions on Watson predraft was how he’d deal with bodily protection on the NFL degree. At the same time as he’s emerged, groups actually haven’t ried to press him a lot. I can see why; in case you miss, he’s pretty much as good as gone. However that’s most likely your greatest wager, and if the Dolphins assume they will get away with it, that’s what they need to most likely do.

Aaron Rodgers has not regarded just like the two-time defending MVP this yr, however it doesn’t appear to be him as a lot because it was the offense making an attempt to determine itself out this season. He’s at present thirteenth in passing yards and passer score, which is decrease than we’re used to seeing Rodgers, however you continue to can by no means wager towards Rodgers. How are followers feeling about him? If the Packers are eradicated from the playoffs, is it Jordan Love time? What occurs subsequent yr?

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I feel followers are pissed off with Rodgers to an extent. He was a part of the issue early within the yr, however was very gradual to take any form of duty for the Packers’ poor offensive efficiency, and that drew lots of destructive consideration from many corners of the fanbase. He nonetheless has loads of vocal supporters, although.

I feel the Packers will look to get Jordan Love some taking part in time in the event that they’re mathematically eradicated. There’s actually no motive to not. They’ll have a choice to make on his fifth-year choice this offseason, and though GM Brian Gutekunst says he’s seen all he must see to make the choice, I nonetheless assume they’ll look to get him some reps.

Subsequent yr will get sophisticated. As a result of construction of his contract, Aaron Rodgers actually holds all of the playing cards. If he so chooses, he can nuke the Packers’ cap with an adversarial retirement, and the Packers can’t actually lower him. In the event that they wish to transfer on, they’ll have some sophisticated maneuvering to do to get a commerce achieved. If I needed to say proper now, I feel Rodgers shall be again in Inexperienced Bay for 2023.

As a fan of a staff that struggles on protection when extra was anticipated this yr, I really feel some kinship with what has occurred in Inexperienced Bay this yr. Why has the protection struggled and the way would you assault the Packers’ protection?

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Let’s reply the second query first as a result of it’s a lot less complicated. Simply assault the Packers’ protection nonetheless you are feeling is greatest and also you’ll most likely succeed. If you wish to throw, simply steer clear of Jaire Alexander (heck, you’ll be able to even throw at him, too — though he was named to the Pro Bowl, he’s not having an incredible yr). If you wish to run, issues will most likely be even higher for you. The Packers’ run protection is among the many worst I’ve ever seen.

Why are issues so unhealthy? There are lots of causes. Joe Barry runs one of the static and uncreative schemes within the league, and that lackluster scheme has been damage by personnel. De’Vondre Campbell has regressed badly after his All-Professional season final yr, Adrian Amos has clearly misplaced a step, Darnell Savage has had a depressing yr, and all the line of defense has been a multitude. Add in an harm to Rashan Gary and also you’ve received the recipe for a extremely unhealthy protection.

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The worst half is {that a} massive a part of this was avoidable. after the Packers parted methods with Mike Pettine, Matt LaFleur narrowed his seek for a brand new defensive coordinator to 3 finalists: College of Wisconsin defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard, Los Angeles Rams safeties coach Ejiro Evero, and Barry, who was the Rams’ linebackers coach on the time. LaFleur provided Leonhard the job, however he turned it down, so LaFleur went again to Barry and Evero, and Barry gained out, a lot to the chagrin of lots of the individuals who cowl the staff. Evero is looking top-of-the-line defenses within the league in Denver, and Barry will get embarrassed on a weekly foundation and even admitted a few weeks in the past that he doesn’t know what to do to repair it.

The Packers have top-of-the-line working again duos within the league, having the ability to assault with each Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon. Jones has 181 carries for 937 yards (5.2 common) this season, whereas Dillon is at 660 yards on 154 carries (4.3 common). Dillon was checked for a head harm final week, however has apparently cleared all exams and needs to be prepared for Sunday, which means Inexperienced Bay ought to have each runners able to face Miami’s protection. What ought to Dolphins followers anticipate to see from the Packers’ speeding assault?

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The Packers have run much more hole scheme than vast zone stuff this yr, and, considerably counterintuitively, it matches each of their backs rather well. Jones is an agile slasher and Dillon is each bit the hammer you’d anticipate from a man who seems like Dillon does. They’ve each discovered success this yr, and Dillon has actually come on robust down the stretch because the offesnive line has stabilized.

Keep watch over what the Packers do after they put Dillon and Jones on the sphere collectively. Typically they’ll run an fascinating quasi-read choice the place Rodgers may have a choice between an inside handoff to Dillon or a swing move to Jones. It’s a easy play, however the distinctive abilities of the Packers’ two backs makes it work.

In keeping with DraftKings Sportsbook, the Dolphins are favored by 3.5 factors over the Packers. It feels actually odd to see Miami favored over Inexperienced Bay. How do you see this sport taking part in out and do you assume the road is correct?

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For those who gave me $100 to placed on this sport, I’d choose the Dolphins to win and canopy with out interested by it too arduous. I feel Miami has all of the instruments to take advantage of a few of the Packers’ greatest weaknesses. I anticipate them to attain lots of factors and for the Packers to wrestle to maintain up. If Inexperienced Bay manages to drag collectively an enitrely out of character defensive efficiency, they may have the ability to make a sport of it, however I feel Miami is just too robust within the locations the place the Packers are weak.

Odds/strains topic to vary. T&Cs apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for particulars.