Mets Continue to Tweak Roster with Bader Addition

Right here’s an try at choosing some adjectives to explain the final 12 months or so in Queens. After a bonkers 2022–23 offseason, a 2023 common season that was nothing wanting catastrophic, and a frantic commerce deadline effort to mitigate a few of the injury, this offseason, new Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns and firm have thus far taken an strategy that may very well be described as measured. Final offseason, the Mets signed seven multi-year offers, together with 4 valued at over $75 million. On Thursday, the membership agreed to terms on simply its second eight-figure contract of the winter, signing middle fielder Harrison Bader to a one-year, $10.5 million deal.

The addition of Bader is the most recent in an offseason of conservative one-year offers for Stearns’ group. They took a $13 million flier on Luis Severino, who will transfer over from the Bronx and slot in someplace within the beginning pitching combine after Kodai Senga and Jose Quintana (and maybe future rotation additions). They made budget-friendly additions to a depleted bullpen, swinging a commerce with Milwaukee for Adrian Houser, claiming a handful of arms off of waivers, and providing one-year offers to Michael Tonkin, Jorge López, and Austin Adams. They added to their place participant depth with infielders Joey Wendle and José Iglesias (on a minor-league deal) and alliterative outfielders Tyrone Taylor and Trayce Thompson (additionally on a minors deal), who now have Bader trying down from above on the depth chart.

The Mets have been in fairly dire want of one other outfielder – significantly a robust defensive one – and so they bought among the best defensive middle fielders in baseball. Bader’s arm energy has been within the high 10% of outfielders in three of the final 4 seasons. He ranked within the 93rd percentile in fielding run worth final season regardless of taking part in solely 98 video games, along with his burst speeds persevering with to rank among the many finest in baseball and contributing to general sturdy vary metrics:

Including Bader does wonders for a Mets outfield that completed twenty fifth in general defensive worth in 2023. Brandon Nimmo, whose bat is the clear precedence of the group, took a step backwards defensively in 2023, dropping from six OAA in 2022 to only one. It’s all the time finest apply to not learn an excessive amount of right into a single 12 months of defensive knowledge, and Nimmo can nonetheless deal with middle on the events when Bader’s not within the lineup. However when he’s, Bader in middle means Nimmo can take a nook outfield spot – which Stearns says he’s on board to do – that may in any other case have needed to go to Starling Marte (whose destiny is unknown after an injury-doomed 2023) or DJ Stewart. Jeff McNeil, who’s been an possibility within the outfield in previous seasons, is anticipated to deal with the majority of the work at second base with Ronny Mauricio out for the foreseeable future with an ACL tear, so Bader holding down middle – and Taylor able to slotting in anyplace – provides the outfield group some wanted flexibility:

An outfield with Bader in middle and Nimmo and Taylor within the corners would make for one of the best defensive possibility on any given day, however new supervisor Carlos Mendoza may have some flexibility to combine and match based mostly on which bats he needs within the lineup – contingent after all on which of an injury-prone group of gamers is wholesome at any given time. Nimmo and Stewart hit from the left aspect, and Taylor and Marte have comparatively flat profession splits, but it surely’s the right-handed Bader who has the very best profession wRC+ in opposition to lefties at 121. Even in his tough 2023, Bader had a 153 wRC+ in 97 plate appearances in opposition to lefties:

It’s up within the air what Bader could possibly contribute with the bat if he can keep wholesome. His offensive manufacturing has been inconsistent all through his profession, and he’s struggled on the plate since leaving St. Louis midseason in 2022, battling a number of accidents over that point. Bader is the kind of participant who can generate some worth with out hitting a lot, but when the bat will get going even only a bit, his worth within the subject and on the bases – the Mets simply added to an already sturdy baserunning lineup – can flip him right into a fairly worthwhile a part of their lineup. Due to his defensive and baserunning worth, Bader was price 4.1 WAR with only a 107 wRC+ in 138 video games in 2017, and three.2 with a 108 wRC+ in 103 video games in 2021.

So what does Bader must do to proper the ship offensively? Self-discipline can be a very good place to begin. Bader has develop into extra aggressive on the plate over the previous couple of years, swinging at extra of every little thing — together with pitches exterior the zone. As an honest contact hitter, he’s been in a position to swing freely with out ballooning his strikeout charges, however he’s additionally stopped strolling a lot in any respect, which hasn’t served his offensive manufacturing very nicely. He’s by no means had excellent plate self-discipline peripherals, however he’s been a a lot better hitter when he’s swinging at, say, 30% of pitches exterior the zone as an alternative of 37%:

It’s not precisely honest to simply write off two tumultuous years that featured two midseason trades and 5 journeys to the injured listing, but it surely’s additionally cheap to anticipate one thing in between 2023 Bader and 2021 Bader on the plate in 2024. One of many three strains that sidelined Bader in 2023 was in his left indirect, a tough damage in the case of rotating with sufficient energy to generate the kind of bat velocity accessible to a wholesome participant. Bader struggled immensely on pitches over the center of the zone in 2023, producing -12.3 runs of worth general, together with -6.8 runs of worth on swings. That’s a reasonably uncharacteristic knowledge level for Bader, possibly suggesting the indirect was at the least partly in charge. From 2017 to 2022, he was price 2.3 runs per 100 pitches over the center of the plate, by no means under zero for a season; in 2023, he was price -3.0. To make issues worse, he was swinging greater than ever:

With a wholesome 2024 – which, to be honest, isn’t any given – Bader may conceivably regain a few of his rotational velocity and have the ability to get the bat round on a few of these middle-middle strikes like he had previous to the indirect pressure. Bader was price -7 runs general on the plate in 2023 – had he been impartial on these swings over the center of the plate, he would have been nearly at zero runs above common general. And a run-neutral Bader on the plate may present sufficient defensive and baserunning worth to make for a stable stopgap in what would possibly quantity to a little bit of a rebuilding season in Queens in 2024. There shall be a good variety of outfielders vying for enjoying time in Port St. Lucie this coming spring, however a wholesome Bader ought to be their man in middle, at the least except and till high prospect Drew Gilbert comes knocking this summer time.

I discover myself succumbing to the form of optimism that typically wants tempering when attempting to investigate a baseball transaction. Bader isn’t any savior to a Mets group that was profoundly underwhelming in 2023 – none of those measured one-year additions shall be. The perfect guess is that on the finish of the day, Bader finally ends up someplace between a forgettable short-term Mets tenure and a pleasantly stunning position participant, probably dangled for a 3rd straight midseason commerce if the Mets are in place to promote. However $10.5 million is a modest funding for a participant who meets a necessity with a shot at being a little bit extra attention-grabbing nonetheless.