An outdated buddy returned to the large leagues yesterday in a comparatively sudden place. After 11 seasons within the majors, all with the Cardinals, Matt Carpenter discovered himself looking for a brand new crew this winter; in the long run, he solely managed to snag a minor league cope with the Rangers. Now, although, he’s discovered himself in New York with the Yankees, signing a serious league cope with them that was introduced on Thursday and hitting eighth within the beginning lineup for his or her recreation towards the Rays that very same day. Does Carpenter have a second wind, or has an excessive amount of time handed since he was an efficient contributor?
That Carpenter discovered little curiosity in his companies this winter was hardly stunning. Some gamers age gracefully, however he fell off a cliff after the 2018 season, dropping from a wRC+ of 140 to 96. If that had been the extent of his collapse, he’d nonetheless have a job within the majors; he nonetheless managed to gather 1.7 WAR in 492 plate appearances in 2019, due to not being terrible at second or third base. However after hitting .176/.313/.291 mixed over 2020 and ’21, even that saving grace didn’t present fairly sufficient grace. What rope remained after the COVID-shortened 2020 quickly ran out of slack the next 12 months, and his position was lowered to the extent that solely 11 of his 53 video games after the All-Star break had been as a starter.
It strikes me as probably that Carpenter solely survived on the roster as a result of of his lengthy historical past with the franchise; infielders who can’t hit are a dime a dozen, and he didn’t have an exploitable platoon break up benefit the way in which a steeply declining Albert Pujols did. And whereas a lot has been product of Carpenter’s struggles towards the shift, and whereas he’s been worse all through his profession relative to a conventional infield configuration, it’s not enough to elucidate the collapse. He hit simply advantageous total because the strategy towards him shifted (no pun supposed) yearly towards all-shift after 2015; by the point 2018 rolled round, when he was nonetheless a harmful offensive participant, he was nearly completely hitting towards a stacked proper aspect of the infield.
However who doesn’t like a great comeback story? For all his struggles the final three years, Carpenter is no less than hitting someone this 12 months, even when it’s solely minor league pitchers. In 21 video games with the Triple-A Spherical Rock Specific, he hit .275/.379/.613 with six homers in 95 plate appearances. Texas launched him final week regardless, however by mutual settlement; even with the idea that he’s made sufficient of a comeback to be a good position participant, the Rangers aren’t critical contenders, so that they’re not in a scenario the place it is smart to take lengthy appears to be like at 36-year-old utility guys.
The Yankees, alternatively, are contenders. And extra importantly, they’re a crew with some short-term wants that Carpenter might no less than theoretically provide. Giancarlo Stanton was positioned on the IL on Wednesday with a sore ankle, and Josh Donaldson simply went on the non permanent shelf as a result of a case of COVID-19. DJ LeMahieu can also be sidelined due to left wrist ache, and although he’s nonetheless formally day-to-day, whenever you add in Aaron Hicks and the bout of proper hamstring tightness that knocked him out of Thursday’s lineup, the Yankees are actually stretching their roster when it comes to availability.
Carpenter can nonetheless probably play third and fairly clearly can deal with being a delegated hitter, and if his left-handed bat has completely something left in it, Yankee Stadium is an efficient venue to attempt to extract it. Even when they’re largely utilizing him at designated hitter, the Yankees are working a really small bench after outrighting Rob Brantly to Triple-A and calling up Manny Bañuelos, so having somebody who can greater than faux it at second and third has some utility.
Will Carpenter succeed? That query is the burning one, and I’ve combined emotions about the entire thing. Coming into the 2022 season, his projection for Yankee Stadium would have been a .202/.325/.362 line, for 0.5 WAR in 368 plate appearances. That comes out to an OPS+ of 88, which is usable for those who actually imagine he can nonetheless contribute defensively within the infield. ZiPS interprets his Spherical Rock efficiency as .229/.324/.462, which pushes the needle, however solely bumps his projected Yankees OPS+ to 91. In different phrases, for those who didn’t like Carp coming into the season, the 22 video games most likely aren’t sufficient to trigger you to alter your opinion.
There’s additionally a complicating issue: he’s not hitting the baseball very arduous. His common exit velocity within the minors this 12 months stands at solely 86.0 mph. That will rank him 230th out of 260 certified gamers, through Statcast, and that’s towards pitchers who’re largely considerably inferior to those he’ll face with the Yankees. He does somewhat higher in hard-hit share however nonetheless would rank within the backside third of baseball; his 35.5% charge is 187th out of 260, once more with the extra caveat that he’s dealing with weaker pitching. That’s sufficient to take a number of the optimism out of the signing for me.
In any case, whether or not Carpenter is toast or not, the Yankees aren’t risking a lot to find out. The distinction between an All-Star and a league-average hitter is just about 20 runs over the course of a season; the distinction between two position gamers over a few weeks is virtually nothing. If Carpenter works out for the Bronx Bombers, it’s all acquire to the Yankees, and if he struggles, the crew hasn’t invested a lot in his success. After a advantageous profession, it could be good to see him get one final hurrah and get to stroll off to the sundown in a extra dignified method than as a struggling pinch-hitter.
