Mark Vientos and Jose Iglesias Are Making Magic With the Mets

As I sit down to put in writing right this moment, the Mets rank fourth within the majors with a 113 wRC+ and sixth with 19.7 place participant WAR. They’re outperforming their star-studded division rivals in Philadelphia and Atlanta in each metrics. In the event you had instructed me on Opening Day that the Mets would have a better wRC+ than the Braves after the commerce deadline, I’d have scoffed at your ignorance. In the event you had instructed me on the finish of Might that the Mets’ lineup would surpass that of the Phillies in WAR inside eight weeks, I’d have laughed in your face. In any case, the Mets ranked thirteenth in wRC+ (99) and sixteenth in place participant WAR (6.2) two months into the season. At the moment, they’d a 24-33 report to point out for his or her efforts, and so they have been trending towards a second straight midsummer sell-off.

But, for the reason that first of June, the Mets rank first within the majors with a 130 wRC+ and second with 13.6 place participant WAR. They’ve gone 33-18 in that span, the most effective report in baseball. Not solely did David Stearns maintain onto potential commerce chips Pete Alonso, J.D. Martinez, and Luis Severino on the deadline, however he made a number of additions, bringing Jesse Winker, Paul Blackburn, Phil Maton, Huascar Brazoban, and Ryne Stanek into the fold. According to ZiPS, the Mets elevated their playoff odds by 8.2% on the deadline. And based on our Playoff Odds web page, the Mets elevated their postseason probabilities by 36.0% between Might 31 and right this moment. They’re considered one of solely two groups whose odds have risen from beneath 10% to above 50% at any level this season. The opposite is the Royals, who have been at 9.9% for about 24 hours on the finish of March:

One may make a compelling argument that the Mets have had probably the most spectacular turnaround of any group in baseball this season. And whilst you might need seen loads of the credit score for this outstanding reversal of fortunes directed at a certain purple mascot, I’m right here to focus on the actual loveable monsters behind the Mets’ newfound profitable methods: Mark Vientos and Jose Iglesias.

First issues first, let me give credit score the place credit score is due. Nobody has been extra essential to the Mets’ success than Francisco Lindor. His 3.4 WAR since June 1 leads the complete Nationwide League. He’s quietly giving Shohei Ohtani a run for his cash within the NL MVP race. But, to keep up the quick meals mascot analogy, Lindor is the Ronald McDonald on this equation, and never simply due to his well-known smile. He’s the principle character and the face of the franchise. Nothing about his success ought to be new or stunning.

Vientos and Iglesias, then again, have unexpectedly pushed their approach into the highlight. The 2023 season was not significantly type to both of them. They every hit effectively at Triple-A, however Vientos couldn’t replicate that success within the majors, and Iglesias couldn’t discover a group to offer him an opportunity within the bigs. Neither made the Mets’ Opening Day roster this 12 months, dropping out to the likes of Brett Baty, Joey Wendle, and Zack Short. But, as the remainder of New York’s choices at second and third base faltered, Vientos and Iglesias emerged as unlikely heroes. Very similar to Grimace, they’ve stolen the hearts of baseball followers all throughout Queens.

Since June 1, Vientos ranks second on the Mets with 10.0 wRAA and 1.7 WAR, trailing solely Lindor. His 148 wRC+ ranks third (min. 50 plate appearances). Iglesias hasn’t performed fairly as a lot, so his 1.3 WAR ranks fourth, however nonetheless, his 7.9 wRAA ranks third and his 160 wRC+ is the highest mark on the group (once more, min. 50 PA). On the season, Vientos and Iglesias every rank among the many high 10 NL batters (min. 100 PA) in wRC+. Certain, that’s a low plate look threshold at this level within the season, nevertheless it’s spectacular all the identical:

Vientos skilled his justifiable share of massive league rising pains in 2022 and ’23, however he hit the bottom working in ’24. From his season debut on April 27 via the tip of Might, he posted a 174 wRC+. He adopted that up with a 149 wRC+ in June and a 148 mark in July. In 12 video games for the reason that All-Star break, he’s slashing a wonderful .262/.319/.619 with three doubles and 4 residence runs. I’ve already postpone writing about him a number of instances with the presumption that he was certain to decelerate, however he refuses to take his foot off the fuel.

Uncooked energy has all the time been Vientos’s carrying device, and the large query was if he may make sufficient contact to capitalize on his power in video games. Up to now, that hasn’t been an issue. With 16 residence runs in 63 contests, he’s crushing bombs at a 41-homer full-season tempo. If he had sufficient plate appearances to qualify, his .277 remoted energy could be tied for second within the NL, behind solely Ohtani and Ozuna. His .357 xwOBA (eighty fifth percentile) isn’t fairly as spectacular as his .383 wOBA, however that’s largely as a result of he’s working a .329 BABIP, and his .267 xBA is nineteen factors decrease than his .286 batting common. Energy numbers, then again, are more durable to pretend. Statcast thinks he’s gotten a bit of fortunate on residence runs (solely 14.2 xHR), however nonetheless, Vientos ranks seventh within the NL (min. 200 PA) with a .242 xISO.

Contact stays a problem for Vientos; his 26.0% strikeout price isn’t horrible for an influence hitter, however his 33.0% whiff price and 16.0% swinging strike price are ugly. Furthermore, his 90.4 mph common exit velocity (seventieth percentile) and 45.1% hard-hit price (seventy fifth percentile) are surprisingly poor for a hitter with a lot uncooked energy. As his 17.3% barrel price (97th percentile) suggests, Vientos can completely destroy the ball when he hits it the way in which he needs to. Nonetheless, his 34.5% squared-up price on contact (63rd percentile of batters, min. 200 swings) tells us he isn’t making optimum contact almost as usually as he may. And when Vientos doesn’t barrel the baseball, his common EV, hard-hit price, xwOBA, and xISO are all marginally worse than the league common:

All issues thought-about, it’s arduous to name this an issue when Vientos is hitting so effectively. Nonetheless, if the 24-year-old could make extra strong contact along with his barrels, he’ll be all of the extra harmful on the plate. This can be particularly vital if opposing pitchers proceed to problem him by throwing him progressively extra breaking balls and fewer fastballs every month than the one earlier than. The very best hitters could make aggressive contact even after they aren’t making excellent contact in opposition to the proper hitter’s pitch.

Iglesias, greater than a decade faraway from his top prospect status, is rather more of a recognized amount than Vientos. In different phrases, it’s arduous to consider his success is anyplace close to as sustainable. Now we have 1,138 video games and 4,167 plate appearances of knowledge with which to judge Iglesias, to not point out hoards of proof that journeymen infielders not often flip into superstars of their mid-thirties. That mentioned, he actually does look higher this 12 months; his .337 xwOBA isn’t almost as spectacular as his .387 wOBA, nevertheless it’s nonetheless above league common and the second-best mark of his profession. Then once more, we’re solely speaking about 124 PA. What’s extra, now we have seen him do that earlier than, and he’s 4 years older this time round. Iglesias put up a 160 wRC+ with a 91st percentile xwOBA over 150 plate appearances within the 2020 season, solely to provide an 89 wRC+ and a seventeenth percentile xwOBA the next 12 months. There’s a motive we repeat the phrase “small pattern measurement” so usually on this web site.

Nonetheless, Iglesias has been an absolute delight to observe, and he deserves loads of credit score for his function within the Mets’ midseason turnaround. He will not be a top-10 hitter within the NL for for much longer, however he has definitely confirmed that groups have been silly to not have taken an opportunity on him in a bench function final season. He produced between 1.0 and a couple of.0 WAR each season from 2015 to ’22, and he has already accomplished so once more in ’24. He stays a succesful defender at 34 years previous, and his signature talent – placing the ball in play – is alive and effectively. His whiff and strikeout charges are elite, whereas his walk-to-strikeout ratio is the most effective it’s been since 2016:

Final season, third base was a catastrophe zone for the Mets. Their third basemen hit a mixed .212/.266/.324 with a 64 wRC+ and -1.2 WAR; no group acquired much less manufacturing from the new nook. This 12 months, on account of a breakout season from Vientos and a bit of assist from Iglesias, the Mets have improved extra at third base than anyplace else on the diamond. Coming into play right this moment, they rank first within the NL and second within the majors at third base with 3.5 WAR – and that’s with Baty (85 wRC+, 0.5 WAR in 47 video games) taking nearly all of the reps on the place over the primary two months of the season. Vientos is chargeable for 2.6 WAR at third, the place he has performed in 61 of his 63 video games. Iglesias has chipped in one other 0.6 WAR in simply 22 PA and 58 innings there due to a 213 wRC+ and a couple of OAA. If these two can present even half as a lot manufacturing over the following two months, the Mets will end with 5.1 WAR at third base. That will be greater than a six-win enchancment over final season’s mark. No place has performed a much bigger function on this group’s comeback from disappointing sellers to authentic Wild Card contenders

What’s extra, the Mets will virtually absolutely end the season among the many high half of groups in third base WAR for the primary time for the reason that days of wholesome David Wright. Nobody is able to name Vientos the second coming of the best place participant in franchise historical past, nevertheless it have to be good for Mets followers to see a brand new star shining on the sizzling nook.

To not be forgotten, Iglesias has additionally helped elevate the bar for the Mets at second base amid disappointing seasons from Jeff McNeil and Wendle. McNeil has an 86 wRC+ and 0.5 WAR in 80 video games (305 PA) at second this 12 months, whereas Wendle contributed a 30 wRC+ and -0.2 WAR in seven video games (21 PA) earlier than he was DFA’d. Iglesias has boosted the group’s total numbers with a 148 wRC+ and 0.8 WAR in 26 video games (96 PA) on the keystone. Consequently, the Mets rank seventeenth in baseball with 1.1 WAR and twelfth with a 97 wRC+ from their second basemen. It has helped that McNeil is lastly hitting once more (146 wRC+ in July), although with Iglesias enjoying so effectively, McNeil has seen extra of his enjoying time within the outfield. It stays to be seen how supervisor Carlos Mendoza will break up up the obtainable enjoying time now that Winker is within the outfield combine, to not point out what he’ll do as soon as Starling Marte returns from the injured checklist. Finally, nevertheless, that’s a great downside for the Mets to have. They’re going to wish all of the offense they will get down the stretch.

The 2024 Mets rank twenty fifth in FIP (4.35) and twenty ninth in pitching WAR (5.2). The previous month was particularly brutal; Mets pitchers ranked final within the majors with a 5.22 FIP and -0.5 WAR. Their commerce deadline acquisitions ought to assist, however even the mix of Blackburn, Brazoban, Stanek, and Maton most likely gained’t be as helpful as a wholesome Kodai Senga would have been. The Mets’ ace seemed sharp in his season debut final week (5.1 IP, 2 ER, 9 Ok) till a calf pressure compelled his early exit. After the sport, Mendoza instructed reporters that “it’s honest to say” Senga is out for the remainder of the common season. Thus, if the Mets are going to reclaim and maintain onto a Wild Card spot, their offense – together with Vientos and Iglesias – must preserve making magic.