Making Sense of the Braves’ Shortstop Situation

On Opening Day, when the Braves took the sector after batting within the prime of the primary inning, everybody you’d count on ran out to their typical positions. Nicely, virtually everybody. Taking his place because the beginning shortstop was Orlando Arcia, the recipient of a three-year contract extension introduced earlier that day. The deal is value $7.3 million with a membership possibility for a fourth 12 months that features a $1 million buyout and replaces the earlier two-year contract extension he had signed after the 2021 season.

Should you hadn’t adopted the Braves’ shortstop saga over the offseason, seeing Arcia within the Opening Day lineup may need been a shock. So let’s recap: Dansby Swanson, the on a regular basis shortstop since his debut in August 2016, performed out his ultimate 12 months below workforce management final 12 months and entered free company. Atlanta didn’t present a lot curiosity in re-signing him as soon as he hit the open market, and he wound up inking a massive seven-year deal with the Cubs.

The inheritor obvious to Swanson was Vaughn Grissom, who had been referred to as up midseason to fill in for an injured Ozzie Albies despite the fact that he hadn’t performed above Double-A but. He impressed with a 165 wRC+ by means of his first 100 plate appearances within the huge leagues, however that mark slid to only 35 over his ultimate 50 journeys to the plate. His late swoon was so unhealthy that the Braves ended up benching him in three of their 4 postseason video games. Nonetheless, coming into spring coaching, the expectation was that Grissom would get each alternative to win the job for good.

For his half, Arcia had appeared in simply 104 video games for the Braves after they acquired him from the Brewers in April 2021. He performed 4 totally different positions within the infield and outfield, basically appearing as a utility man for Atlanta — a fairly vital step backwards after starting his profession as Milwaukee’s beginning shortstop. By way of his first 5 seasons, he put up a .244/.295/.366 slash line (a 71 wRC+) and gathered 1.9 WAR, and after becoming a member of the Braves, he spent a number of time using the shuttle between Triple-A and the majors. Nonetheless, he did present some enchancment on the plate in Gwinnett, posting a 129 wRC+ in 322 PA along with his best-ever ISO at .233.

These enhancements on the plate carried over to the following 12 months, the place Arcia spent practically all of his time within the huge leagues because the Braves’ utility man. In restricted motion, he posted a 104 wRC+, a career-high for him. The most important distinction for him was a leap in batted ball high quality:

His hard-hit price improved by greater than 4 factors, as much as 42.5%, and his barrel price reached 7.5%, each profession highs. He additionally minimize his popup price to five.6% and concurrently elevated his fly ball price. By elevating his larger high quality contact however avoiding mis-hits, he was in a position to generate far more productive outcomes on his balls in play, with common exit velocities on his fly ball and line drive contact that had been significantly notable. As a substitute of a light-hitting, defense-first shortstop, Arcia’s batted ball contact began trying much more harmful.

His plate self-discipline additionally took a giant step ahead. With the Brewers, Arcia had developed a really aggressive strategy on the plate which didn’t go effectively along with his middling bat-to-ball expertise. Final 12 months, he decreased his swing price to 44.7%, a drop of practically eight factors over the 12 months prior, and simply a profession low. His contact price didn’t budge, however merely taking extra pitches allowed him to run a 9.0% stroll price and preserve his first rate strikeout price.

Regardless of these enhancements on the plate, it nonetheless got here as a shock to see Arcia win the Opening Day gig. Grissom had a wonderful spring, and a shock contender emerged in Braden Shewmake.

There’s solely a lot inventory you may put into spring numbers, although there’s some proof that exit velocity improvements could be a little sticky into the common season. Sadly, based mostly on the restricted variety of Statcast tracked batted balls, Grissom struggled with the identical points that undercut his seemingly spectacular debut final 12 months. In 15 tracked batted balls, his common exit velocity was simply 86.5 mph — barely higher than the 84.6 mph he put up within the huge leagues final 12 months, however nonetheless effectively beneath league common. (Arcia solely had eight tracked batted balls this spring, however their common exit velocity was 94.2 mph.) The dearth of top quality arduous contact final 12 months was a significant purple flag for Grissom, who solely managed a 34.3% hard-hit price and put practically half of his batted balls on the bottom. A variety of his success was BABIP-driven, which is why he crashed so arduous in September when balls stopped discovering gaps within the protection.

Then there’s the issue of Grissom’s protection. He wasn’t nice at second base whereas filling in for Arcia, costing the Braves 5 outs and three runs per OAA and RAA. On the more difficult defensive place, it’s doubtless these numbers would solely worsen. Grissom worked out with Ron Washingon, who helped flip Marcus Semien’s protection right into a power, for 3 separate weeks in the course of the offseason. However whereas there was some enchancment, it wasn’t sufficient to warrant handing him the job out of the gate.

Shewmake’s emergence could have sophisticated the image slightly, however he wound up getting despatched again to Triple-A for extra improvement time. A good defender already, the factor holding him again has been his lack of manufacturing on the plate. He has a superb really feel for placing the bat on the ball however no energy by any means and restricted on-base expertise. His enhancements this spring had coaches buzzing, however in the end, he must show it within the minors earlier than getting a shot within the huge leagues, and his ceiling could also be that of a utility infielder anyway. After each Grissom and Shewmake had been despatched right down to the minors, it’s telling that the previous lined up at shortstop for Gwinnett, with the latter shifting over to second base.

Regardless of all this drama surrounding the place this offseason, Grissom may find yourself being the Braves’ shortstop of the longer term anyway. The extension Arcia signed doesn’t preclude the Braves from calling up him or Shewmake in the event that they get away within the minors this 12 months. However Arcia is simply 28 years outdated, and it’s potential he’s in the course of a mid-career breakout after his change of surroundings. The enhancements he’s made on the plate are a transfer in the appropriate course, and his protection is one other optimistic at a premium place. If Grissom does get referred to as up in some unspecified time in the future to take the beginning position, having Arcia as a utility man isn’t the worst final result for the Braves.