After being traded for the second time in as a few years again in Might when he was acquired by the Padres in a deal that despatched a four-player package deal again to Miami, Luis Arraez advised reporters (together with MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell) that he’s trying ahead to the soundness of understanding the place he’s going to play subsequent yr. Not solely that, Arraez even expressed curiosity in a longer-term deal to maintain him in San Diego past the top of the 2025 season, when he’s scheduled to succeed in free company for the primary time.
“It means loads of good issues,” Arraez mentioned, as relayed by Cassavell. “In the event that they wish to signal me, I wish to keep right here. That is enterprise. I perceive the enterprise. However I hope I keep right here for a very long time.”
Arraez is in for a wholesome payday this winter, as MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects a $14.6MM wage for the infielder in his remaining journey via arbitration. It’s a hefty worth to pay for Arraez distinctive however considerably restricted talent set. Arraez has by no means supplied a lot defensive worth even when he primarily performed second base with the Twins and Marlins. That modified upon Arraez’s arrival in San Diego, because the Padres used him on the keystone in simply 9 video games whereas in any other case splitting his time between first base (the place he profiles as a beneath common defender) and DH.
In the meantime, Arraez’s elite contact is held again by lackluster plate self-discipline and a scarcity of energy. Whereas Arraez simply gained his third consecutive batting title with a superb .314 common, he was simply 9% higher than the league common hitter by wRC+ due to a paltry 3.6% stroll price and a minuscule .078 ISO that leaves him with the third-lowest energy manufacturing amongst all certified hitters this yr. An damage may assist clarify Arraez’s downturn in manufacturing after back-to-back 130 wRC+ seasons in 2022 and ’23, nevertheless: the infielder advised reporters (together with Cassavell) that he’s been taking part in via a thumb damage this yr and is ready to bear an MRI to additional discover the scenario now that the Padres’ season has come to an in depth.
If Arraez can be open to a long-term deal at a decrease common annual worth than the $14.6MM determine he’s at the moment projected to earn through arbitration this winter, it’s not onerous to think about the Padres having incentive to place a deal collectively. In spite of everything, RosterResource initiatives the membership for a luxurious tax payroll simply over $243MM in 2025, round $2MM above the bottom tax threshold of $241MM. In the meantime, the membership’s precise payroll is projected for simply over $207MM, a rise of practically $50MM over 2024’s $169MM determine. Whereas specifics of the membership’s payroll plans for 2025 usually are not but clear, Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune writes that the Padres are “dedicated” to a payroll nearer to their 2024 determine than 2023, once they ran an estimated payroll of $257 per Cot’s Baseball Contracts.
With wants within the beginning rotation and outfield that must be addressed this winter, San Diego brass could wind up needing to get artistic as a way to afford the additions crucial this winter. Extending Arraez may very well be one such artistic path to a decrease payroll, and it’s one the Padres have used below A.J. Preller previously. Lefty Wandy Peralta and right-hander Yu Darvish are two of essentially the most notable current examples of gamers who had been signed or prolonged on contracts designed to mitigate their luxurious tax influence, and it’s even doable an Arraez extension may very well be considerably back-loaded as a way to unlock extra {dollars} for the 2024 crew.
After all, such an association would require the Padres to have Arraez of their plans past the 2025 season. It’s not but clear if Arraez’s need to stay in San Diego past the lifetime of his membership management is reciprocated by membership brass, although The Athletic’s Dennis Lin did spotlight Arraez not too long ago as an “apparent” extension candidate for the membership and emphasised San Diego’s respect for the 27-year-old’s distinctive talent set. There would absolutely be different obstacles to workaround as a way to make a long-term deal into actuality even when the curiosity is mutual, in fact, not least of which might be Arraez’s standing as one of many league’s most troublesome to worth gamers.
