Light Chanukah Reading for the Analytically Inclined

As of sunset on December 18, Chanukah has formally begun. In the meantime, barring any extra surprises from Steve Cohen, the height of the new range season is winding down. There are nonetheless a number of proficient gamers up for grabs, however the prime 10 of our top 50 free agents are all off the board, and solely three stay from the highest 25. After a busy month, issues are beginning to settle into place.

Thus, as the vacations start and the busiest a part of the offseason involves a detailed, now looks as if the proper time to share a few minute and trivial statistical tidbits with a Chanukah connection. Here’s a shut take a look at grounding into double performs, the three true outcomes, and baseball miracles in honor of the Jewish pageant of sunshine. (No prior data of Chanukah, Judaism, or the Talmud required.)

Franco Grounds His Manner Into the Historical past Books

Chanukah is the celebration of a rare eight-day streak. Because the story goes, the Jewish folks had solely sufficient oil to mild the menorah on the Temple in Jerusalem for in the future, however one way or the other it continued burning for eight days and eight nights. As baseball followers, we are able to absolutely relate to such a story; the numbers 56 and a pair of,632 are sacred, and DiMaggio and Ripken are virtually gods. It sounds so easy, however there actually is a miraculous high quality to issues that final a lot longer than we anticipate them to.

The 2022 season gave us loads of new streaks to root for. There was Framber Valdez and his record-setting 25 consecutive high quality begins. There was Zac Gallen and his franchise-record 44.1 scoreless innings. There have been additionally six totally different groups that went on double-digit successful streaks, together with the Mariners and Braves, who every gained 14 in a row. The streak I’m going to give attention to right now, nonetheless, didn’t obtain a lot consideration, like Chanukah on the Hallmark channel.

At first look, this streak doesn’t look practically as uncommon as it’s. It additionally wasn’t the type of streak followers had been rooting to see proceed. However, it was somewhat exceptional from a statistical standpoint. So, in honor of Chanukah, let’s have a look again at Maikel Franco’s historic run of grounding into double performs:

From April 30 to Could 6, Franco grounded right into a double play in six straight video games. It was the longest GIDP streak of the season and of his profession. Nevertheless it was an entire lot greater than that, too. No different participant has even had a five-game GIDP streak since A.J. Pierzynski and Casey McGehee in 2015. Over a million batters have stepped to the plate since then, and people batters have grounded into practically 25,000 double performs, however Franco’s streak stands alone.

To search out one other six-game GIDP streak, it’s a must to go all the best way again to 1998, when White Sox first baseman Greg Norton grounded right into a double play in six straight video games from September 12 to twenty. It must be famous, nonetheless, that this streak was interrupted by a recreation on September 14 wherein he walked in his solely plate look. Technically, this didn’t finish the streak, as a result of he didn’t obtain a reputable likelihood to increase it. Even so, it’s truthful to say Norton’s streak wasn’t fairly as pure as Franco’s, which passed off over six straight Nationals video games.

Earlier than Norton, the final participant with a six-game GIDP streak was Sid Gordon of the New York Giants, who completed the feat from July 4 to 11, 1943. Nonetheless, like Norton, his streak was additionally interrupted by a recreation wherein he appeared however didn’t get the possibility to bat; he was within the beginning lineup on July 10 however was eliminated in the course of the primary inning after making a pricey error at third base. And previous to Gordon? Nobody. Franco, Norton, and Gordon are the only players (on record) to ground into a double play in six straight games. No hitter has ever achieved so in seven straight, at the least because the mid-Nineteen Thirties. (Partial GIDP knowledge at FanGraphs and Baseball Reference goes again to 1933, and now we have entry to finish GIDP knowledge from 1939 onwards.)

What makes Franco’s streak much more uncommon is that GIDP charges have declined considerably in latest seasons. Over the previous 5 years, groundball double performs are at their lowest level because the early Forties:

Non-pitchers grounded into double performs in 1.86% of plate appearances in 2022, in comparison with 2.00% in 1998 and a pair of.03% in 1948. Thus, for those who regulate for the period he performed in, Franco has the longest GIDP streak of all time.

On prime of that, Franco additionally got here ridiculously near an eight-game GDP streak, which might have been much more applicable for this Chanukah publish. He grounded right into a double play in each recreation from April 30 to Could 6 and in addition grounded right into a double play on Could 8. Had he achieved so on Could 7, the streak would have reached eight video games — and he nearly did!

That groundball wasn’t hit significantly laborious, however Franco isn’t fleet of foot. Had a runner been standing on first base, that’s nearly actually one other double play.

Particular due to the Stathead streak finder device.

Dreidel, Dreidel, Dreidel

The sport of dreidel is extremely easy. Gamers take turns spinning a four-sided prime, both sides of which shows a letter of the Hebrew alphabet. These letters — nun, gimel, hei, and shin — symbolize the 4 attainable outcomes of every flip. The one who spins both takes all of the cash from the pot (gimel), takes half the cash from the pot (hei), places a coin of their very own into the pot (shin), or does nothing in any respect (nun).

Now, whereas there are technically 4 attainable outcomes in a recreation of dreidel, virtually talking, there are actually solely three. Nun is extra like a scarcity of end result, since nothing occurs and the sport continues as is. Thus, the sport of dreidel truly maps onto the three true outcomes of baseball fairly properly: residence runs are like gimel, walks are like hei, and strikeouts are akin to shin.

Discovering this parallel bought me fascinated with which baseball gamers would make the most effective dreidels. A dreidel is a three-true-outcome machine. However extra particularly, a dreidel is a completely random TTO machine. A well-designed dreidel ought to land on every letter an equal variety of occasions. Due to this fact, the baseball participant who makes for the most effective dreidel is one who’s equally more likely to file a strikeout, a stroll, or a house run in any given plate look.

You’ll be unsurprised to listen to that such a participant doesn’t exist in right now’s recreation. The certified hitter with the bottom strikeout price final season, Luis Arraez, nonetheless struck out 7.1% of the time. The one certified hitter to homer in additional than 7% of his plate appearances was Aaron Judge, and he struck out practically thrice extra usually than he knocked one out of the park. If there’s one participant closest to a dreidel in 2022, it might be Nolan Arenado. The NL MVP finalist hit 30 residence runs, drew 52 walks, and struck out 72 occasions, that means he was solely 2.4 occasions extra more likely to strike out than to homer, the bottom price within the league. He’s joined atop the rostrum by Decide and José Ramírez, who attained dreidel standing in two very other ways:

If we wish to discover a true dreidel hitter, now we have to look a bit of farther again than 2022. Certainly, just one certified hitter has ever completed the common season with an equal variety of residence runs, walks, and strikeouts. We’ll get to him in a minute, however first, let’s check out some runners-up for the all-time Golden Dreidel Award. Corridor of Famer Al Simmons had a few exceptional dreidel seasons in back-to-back years:

Simmons is the one hitter in main league historical past to have at the least 30 however not more than 40 strikeouts, walks, and residential runs in the identical 12 months — and he did it twice! He proved to be a fortunate dreidel, too, serving to the Philadelphia Athletics win the World Sequence in each 1929 and 1930. Different gamers with dreidel-like seasons embrace Jim O’Rourke, Chuck Klein, Bill Terry, and Hank Aaron, amongst others:

The dreidels of the twenty first century don’t fairly match as much as these from again within the day, however there are nonetheless a handful of gamers price an honorable point out:

Lastly, let’s return to the best dreidel in main league historical past: the one certified hitter to stroll, strike out, and homer at the very same tempo over a whole season. His title was Paul Hines, and in 1873 he completed a feat that has but to be repeated:

One strikeout. One stroll. One residence run. The proper dreidel. Evidently, this accomplishment comes with a fairly large asterisk beside it; the season was far shorter again then, and stats from that period are rather less dependable. If you wish to give Al Simmons the Golden Dreidel trophy as a substitute, I gained’t attempt to cease you.

However that is Chanukah, the celebration of a miracle. The letters on the dreidel are stated to face for the phrase “an excellent miracle occurred there.” So, within the spirit of the vacations, I’m selecting to consider within the miracle that’s Paul Hines and his excellent dreidel season. Pleased Chanukah to all!