Let’s Examine Swing Path Diversity in the 2023 Playoffs

Within the cat and mouse sport that’s the postseason, each choice issues, no matter how large or small. If a marginal aggressive benefit might be exploited, odds are a workforce will take their probability. Final yr, I investigated what I assumed was a key purpose for the Astros’ postseason success over the past decade. The piece explored swing path variety and the way Houston had extra of it than some other workforce from 2021 to 2022. Establishing a balanced, dynamic lineup is likely one of the instruments groups can use to maintain pitchers and opposing managers sincere. There are a number of methods to outline stability in a lineup, together with swing aggression, whiff tendencies, pace and athleticism, and handedness. However that piece centered on variance in Vertical Bat Angle (VBA) inside lineups.

When you aren’t accustomed to VBA, it’s the vertical orientation of the bat at contact, the place 45 levels is a diagonal bat. It’s pitch top dependent – the quantity goes down as top will increase (flatter bat) and goes up as top decreases (steeper bat), making it differ inside a participant’s personal swing profile. There’s additionally variance participant to participant. On common, Aaron Judge and Freddie Freeman have a lot steeper barrels at affect than flatter-swinging hitters like Juan Soto and Randy Arozarena. VBA is one among a number of vital bat monitoring metrics — horizontal bat angle, level of contact, bat pace, acceleration, and time to contact are just a few others — however VBA is probably the most simply accessible because of the pc imaginative and prescient work achieved at SwingGraphs.

Due to this accessibility, VBA has been my go-to proxy for monitoring bat path modifications on a player-specific degree. Bat path has a strongest causal impact on whether or not or not a participant is an effective hitter, nevertheless it additionally impacts how pitchers decide sequencing and pitch choice. With that stated, let’s examine swing variety among the many playoff lineups, and specifically, these of the Texas Rangers and Arizona Diamondbacks.

To start, I took a barely completely different strategy to preprocessing my knowledge this time. As I discussed, handedness performs a giant position right here as a result of it’s a key consider how managers stagger their lineups. Two hitters can have the identical VBA, but when they’re of the alternative handedness, their path is completely different. To account for that, I took the inverse of all left-handed hitter’s VBA. Equally, I needed to account for switch-hitters. 72.2% of switch-hitter plate appearances got here in opposition to right-handed pitchers in 2023. So as a substitute of taking the inverse, I multiplied all switch-hitters’ VBAs by -.722. Give it some thought as them being a lefty 72.2% of the time.

When it comes to who was in or out of the dataset, I solely included hitters on postseason rosters with at the very least one plate look. That actually solely considerably affected the Rays, who have been with out Luke Raley and Brandon Lowe. Lastly, I solely used VBA from the September/October portion of the common season. My logic was that what a hitter seems to be like in April might be completely different from September. Hitters undergo swing fluctuations, and I needed to have the newest illustration of their swings. For the calculation, variance continues to be the measure used to symbolize variety, however I’ve adjusted the quantity to be a proportion above or beneath common (of playoff groups solely), with the typical set at 100, as with wRC+, OPS+, and so forth. With that stated, I current VBAVar+ for playoff groups in 2023:

For 2 postseasons in a row, the Phillies have been the most efficient NL offense by wRC+. This yr, their team-wide 118 wRC+ was excellent, a full 19 factors larger than their NLCS opponent, the Diamondbacks. The workforce doesn’t have any switch-hitters, however on each the left- and right-hand aspect, they’ve over 10 levels of dispersion. Trea Turner (29.0 levels) has the flattest swing on common amongst right-handed hitters, whereas Nick Castellanos (40.5) has the steepest. Brandon Marsh (41.6) has the steepest on the workforce, and Kyle Schwarber is 0.8 levels above Turner, making him the flattest lefty. There’s a large variance of swing path on this lineup, and the Turner addition added a layer of variety that the 2022 workforce didn’t have. From a sport planning perspective, that variety is a nightmare in a postseason matchup.

Equally, the Twins and Dodgers have variance at the very least 10% above common. The Twins platoon technique considerably impacts this, however in addition they have hitters as steep as Edouard Julien (42.1) and as flat as Royce Lewis (25.8). Each are on the intense ends throughout your complete league, not simply their very own workforce. On the Dodgers’ aspect, Freeman can be excessive at 42.0 levels, and is balanced by flatter swingers like Jason Heyward (27.6), David Peralta (28.8), and Enrique Hernández (28.1).

As for the Astros, my piece final yr topped them the workforce with probably the most swing path variety, so what offers? Nicely, there was a little bit of convergence of their VBAs in comparison with the earlier two seasons. Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker’s swings converged nearer to at least one one other after being on reverse sides of the spectrum. Chas McCormick’s swing flattened considerably within the remaining month after being nearly completely diagonal for a lot of the season (and final yr). Swapping their first baseman from the extraordinarily flat swinging Yuli Gurriel to a middle-of-the-pack swinger like José Abreu additionally introduced them nearer to the typical. To be clear, these are nonetheless unbelievable hitters, however the convergence damage the benefit they’d constructed up in years previous.

Let’s now shift to probably the most related a part of this dialog: the World Sequence matchup. The Diamondbacks and Rangers might not have the identical degree of swing path variety as different golf equipment, however there are facets to every workforce that make for fascinating selections by Bruce Bochy and Torey Lovullo.

The Diamondbacks 97.98 VBAVar+ mark is common, however there may be good stability right here from a handedness perspective. They run out two lefties and two switch-hitters day-after-day, then have a gaggle of stable right-handed hitters. The limitation is that each of their lefties have extraordinarily flat swings. Corbin Carroll (28.3) and Alek Thomas (24.9) are on the shorter aspect, in order that is sensible. Nevertheless, Lovullo has been very strategic in who follows these two within the lineup. Gabriel Moreno’s bat path steepened as his well being improved and made its method to an above-average mark at 37.6 levels. Following up a flat swinging lefty like Carroll with a extra crazy hitter like Moreno (even when they’re separated by one hitter in opposition to right-handed pitchers) forces a pitcher to alter their pitch choice. Nathan Eovaldi doesn’t considerably partition his pitch combine, however he’ll have to alter how he makes use of his four-seamer in opposition to every of those hitters once they face off tonight. And plus, Ketel Marte will doubtless be sandwiched between these two and he has been on absolute tear.

Eovaldi will face an analogous concern when the Thomas-Lourdes Gurriel Jr. a part of the lineup comes up too. Gurriel’s VBA is available in at 34.9 levels; he had good success in opposition to changeups and splitters this season and wasn’t nice in opposition to heaters. It will doubtless imply Eovaldi takes a fastball-heavy strategy in opposition to the left fielder. Nevertheless, if Thomas follows him within the lineup like he has beforehand, Eovaldi should instantly pivot his strategy due to Thomas’ success in opposition to four-seamers this yr. He hit .309 in opposition to them with a .384 xwOBA. It might be perfect if Eovaldi might instantly get in a rhythm along with his splitter, however he’ll be compelled to combine issues up with this a part of the lineup. Nevertheless, it’s not all unhealthy information for him. Tommy Pham and Christian Walker have lower than a level of VBA separation between them and are prone to hit behind each other. This will probably be a possibility for Eovaldi to make use of an analogous pitch combine and particularly lean on his splitter since these two hitters haven’t had a lot success in opposition to offspeed pitches.

On to the Rangers’ aspect of issues, Zac Gallen will probably be compelled to rotate handedness all evening besides in opposition to Corey Seager and Evan Carter. That’s not a lot of a break! The 2 are separated in VBA by over 1.5 levels, and Seager is a breaking ball killer. As a consequence of its vertical orientation, Gallen’s finest pitch in opposition to lefties is his knuckle curve, however Seager slugged .686 in opposition to right-handed curveballs this yr. His knack for creating carry on low pitches by adjusting his physique is unhealthy information for Gallen. After Seager and Carter, he’ll then should handle Adolis García, who simply continues swatting homers.

However the extra fascinating a part of this lineup from a VBA perspective comes when Leody Taveras and Josh Jung step to the plate. Taveras has a flatter swing; his VBA is at 29.6 levels. He maintains a taller posture all through his swing and doesn’t make any vital barrel changes. This will probably be a bonus for Gallen as a result of he can use his knuckle curve and changeup to maneuver underneath Taveras’ barrel. In different phrases, it will likely be about preserving the ball down in opposition to Taveras. The difficulty is that the identical zones which can be Taveras’ weaknesses are literally Jung’s strengths. His loopier 36.9 diploma VBA steepens much more on low-middle and low-in pitches. His xwOBA in these zones throughout the common season have been .468 and .515, respectively.

That is the place staggering swing varieties can turn out to be a bonus. Going from an excessive weak point in a single zone to an excessive energy back-to-back forces a pitcher to alter his bodily really feel and pitch strategy. Nothing is tougher than needing to execute a number of sport plans on a rotating foundation. But when Gallen is searching for one thing to lean on, it’s that he can take an analogous strategy in opposition to the flatter swinging lefties like Heim, Taveras, and Nathaniel Lowe. Since there isn’t a lot variety amongst these three, he might have a better time getting in a rhythm within the backside half of the lineup. The important thing will probably be staying away from Jung’s scorching zones and never letting Mitch Garver cheat on the four-seamer since that was the pitch he ambushed so effectively in opposition to righties this yr (.510 xwOBA).

As you watch this weekend’s video games, take note of these matchups, particularly how every pitcher is compelled to alter their pitch choice relying on swing paths. These groups is probably not as broadly dispersed as others within the playoff subject by way of pure VBA variance, however there are lanes in every lineup that may pressure pitchers to dynamically execute completely different sport plans, one thing that’s a lot simpler stated than achieved.