Ke’Bryan Hayes Gets a Record Extension from the Pirates

Judging by their 69-win projection and negligible odds of profitable the World Collection, the Pirates don’t have an amazing deal to sit up for from a aggressive standpoint in 2022. However Opening Day is a time for celebration and optimism nonetheless, and early on Thursday afternoon, FanSided’s Robert Murray reported that the workforce had agreed to an eight-year, $70-million extension with third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes, the most important contract in Pirates historical past.

The contract for the 25-year-old Hayes can also be a report for a participant with between one and two years of service time. It covers his last two pre-arbitration years, his three years of arbitration-eligibility, and the primary three years of his free agent eligibility, by way of his age-32 season. The precise particulars haven’t been reported at this writing, together with the worth of his membership possibility for the ninth yr (2030).

The celebration was virtually instantly dampened when Hayes left the Pirates’ opener in opposition to the Cardinals within the backside of the primary inning because of an obvious damage to his left wrist. He dove making an attempt to catch a bloop into left subject by Dylan Carlson, however the ball fell and changed into a double. After Tyler O’Neill singled Carlson house two batters later, Pirates head athletic coach Rafael Freitas and supervisor Derek Shelton got here out of the dugout to verify on Hayes, unwrapping his left wrist and taking him out of the sport.

The sudden departure was a reminder that Hayes spent two months on the injured listing final summer time for left wrist irritation after which was shut down in the course of the last week of the season with soreness in the identical wrist. Through the Pittsburgh Submit-Gazette’s Jason Mackey, he said that ache stemmed from rolling over his fingers on the finish of his swing, one thing that he labored on correcting over the winter. Earlier than a preliminary prognosis of Hayes’ present damage had been reported to the general public, Murray noted through Twitter that his contract had not been signed but, because it was nonetheless pending a bodily.

Gulp. If the damage have been severe, the Pirates wouldn’t dare… would they?

Murray later reported that thankfully, Hayes was simply experiencing “cramping in his left thumb/forearm… ‘very minor’,” in accordance a supply, and the workforce later described the issue as a spasm in his left forearm. Mackey reported that after the Pirates’ 9-0 loss to the Cardinals, Hayes expressed hope that he can be prepared for the workforce’s subsequent sport on Saturday. Whew.

With that additional layer of drama out of the way in which, we are able to contemplate the extension for the workforce’s 2015 first-round pick of a Texas highschool, and the son of former main leaguer Charlie Hayes. Known as up for the primary time in September 2020 after three years of frequenting prospect lists, Hayes hit a blazing .376/.442/.682 (195 wRC+) with 5 homers in 95 plate appearances, a efficiency that generated 1.6 WAR in simply 24 video games and garnered him sufficient help within the NL Rookie of the 12 months balloting to complete sixth — but retain his rookie eligibility into 2021.

Hayes entered the season seventh on our Top 100 Prospects list, however as Eric Longenhagen predicted — not that he was going out on a limb, actually — he couldn’t preserve the .450 BABIP or .464 wOBA that drove his 2020 efficiency. Certainly, he had a subpar season with the bat, hitting .257/.316/.373 (88 wRC+) with six homers in 396 PA. He performed in simply 96 video games because of the left wrist woes and a self-inflicted bone bruise on his proper hand precipitated when he slammed his helmet in frustration. None of that helped his offense.

Hayes nonetheless hit the ball exhausting, with a 90.2 mph common exit velocity (71st percentile), 111 mph most exit velocity (78th percentile) and a forty five.8% hard-hit price (seventy fifth percentile), however he didn’t elevate the ball with consistency. He had a 56.7% groundball price (9 factors greater than his 2020 stint), a 2.24 groundball-to-fly ball ratio (up from 1.55), and only a 5.1% barrel price (twentieth percentile). His .299 xwOBA positioned him in simply the sixteenth percentile.

All of that’s trigger for some concern, however fortunately, it was backed-stopped by Hayes’ excellent protection. Regardless of enjoying in simply 766.1 innings, he led all third basemen with 16 DRS, positioned second with 13 OAA, and tied for fourth with 6.0 UZR. He beat out Gold Glove winners Nolan Arenado and Matt Chapman to win the Fielding Bible Award for third basemen, and completed with 1.5 fWAR and a couple of.4 bWAR, marking him as a solidly above-average participant, one thing in painfully brief provide on the 2021 Pirates.

The Bucs, who went 61-101 final yr, have only one season of .500 or higher ball up to now six, and as famous above, this doesn’t appear to be their yr to show the nook. Normal supervisor Ben Cherington wasn’t allowed to interrupt the financial institution this winter, and in reality the Pirates have the majors’ lowest payroll at an estimated $45 million, a determine that features estimates for six arbitration-eligible gamers whose precise salaries haven’t but been decided. Notably absent from their Opening Day roster is 23-year-old shortstop Oneil Cruz, who positioned eighth on this yr’s Top 100 Prospects list. He had a two-game cup of espresso final yr and is coming off a robust spring, There’s little query that he’s one of many workforce’s greatest 26 gamers, however he’s beginning the yr in Triple-A with the intention to acquire expertise in left subject whereas Kevin Newman, the proprietor of a 54 wRC+ for every of the previous two seasons, began for the massive membership at shortstop and stays the projected common. Make of that rationale what you’ll.

That $45 million payroll consists of seven free agents signed by Cherington, all to one-year offers of $5 million or much less, with all however these of Roberto Pérez and Yoshi Tsutsugo coming in at $2.13 million or much less. Cherington traded catcher Jacob Stallings, who ranked third among the many workforce’s place gamers in WAR (2.6) to the Marlins in late November; he had traded Adam Frazier, who ranked second in WAR (3.0), to the Padres on July 26, and spent a great quantity of the previous 9 months fielding inquiries from the Padres, Marlins and at least six other teams relating to heart fielder Bryan Reynolds, the workforce chief in WAR (5.5) and a participant who turned down extension overtures final yr.

Significantly with the Pirates’ pitching quite threadbare, that left Hayes, the workforce’s fourth-most invaluable place participant final yr, as a possible goal for an extension that may develop into a part of the muse for a extra aggressive workforce and its dedication to a brighter future. The Pirates have been speaking to Hayes about an extension since the spring of 2020, and so they lastly acquired to a deal that each side may dwell with. Remarkably, the contract that Hayes’ deal is surpassing is the six-year, $60 million extension that Jason Kendall obtained in 2000 (“Isn’t that loopy? It’s upsetting, too. There must be some change,” Kendall told The Athletic’s Rob Biertempfel two years in the past when reminded of his contract’s standing in franchise historical past).

Extra not too long ago, Andrew McCutchen’s contract wound up surpassing Kendall’s in whole worth, however solely after the Pirates picked up the $14.75 million possibility for 2018 on the finish of his six-year, $51.5 million deal. That one panned out effectively, as McCutchen gained an MVP award, had two different prime three finishes within the voting, made 4 All-Star groups, and helped the membership to its solely three postseason appearances because the Jim Leyland/Barry Bonds period. Starling Marte didn’t attain the heights that McCutchen did, however his six-year, $31 million deal — expanded to cowl eight years at $52 million when its two choices have been picked up — paid off very effectively by way of worth and even delivered the workforce’s present quantity 4 prospect, shortstop Liover Peguero, when Marte was traded to the Diamondbacks in January 2020. Gregory Polanco was launched final summer time earlier than even finishing his five-year, $35 million extension, however the {dollars} concerned solely stand out due to the workforce’s pitiful spending. His -1.2 WAR earlier than being minimize unfastened final yr didn’t assist the Pirates, however the true drawback wasn’t his $11 million wage, it was a $47 million payroll.

All of which is to say that for it to have taken so long as it did for the Pirates to surpass Kendall’s contract is a fairly severe indictment of the group on a number of ranges. The Hayes extension may be massive relative to the franchise’s historical past, however that is hardly a danger on the extent of the Padres through Fernando Tatis Jr.’s 14-years, $340-million extension, the report for a participant with two years of service time. Right here’s Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projection for the lifetime of Hayes’ deal:

That’s 21.9 WAR over the eight assured years of the contract, by way of his age-32 season, even when Hayes by no means develops right into a constantly league-average offensive participant. That stage of manufacturing is relatively modest however in the identical ballpark as Marte’s assured years (19.5 WAR from 2014-19), and nonetheless value $138 million in free agent salaries through the ZiPS mannequin, which makes use of estimates of $7 million per win and three.5% inflation. (Right here I’ll word that for my February piece on a possible Juan Soto extension, Dan used an estimate of two% inflation, however he has since revised that price “given the longer-term inflation estimates usually within the financial system” whereas noting, “Contracts from this offseason counsel a minimum of an uptick in wage development.”) Together with the extension, the ZiPS valuation of the contract involves 9 years and $146 million. Based mostly on the wage reductions which might be typical for arbitration eligible gamers — which in Hayes case, vary from 21% within the first yr to 62% within the third — ZiPS suggests contracts of eight years and $78 million or 9 years and $86 million.

Hayes’ deal undershoots the ZiPS valuation of the assured portion by about 10%, which isn’t nice for his functions however lowers the stakes for the notoriously risk-averse Pirates. If his bat develops — and we shouldn’t rule that out given the uncooked energy and the still-recent prospect grades (55 current worth and 60 future worth on the hit device) — this could be an excellent greater discount for Pittsburgh, however it could additionally improve the possibilities of Hayes being a ok participant to advantage one other assured deal in his 30s. If his bat doesn’t develop, or if he continues to take care of accidents (he missed the second half of 2016 with a again damage and performed in solely 82% of his groups’ video games from ’17-19), he’s nonetheless acquired some safety.

There’s danger concerned in any long-term deal; the secret’s whether or not that danger is distributed pretty. Hayes, as a participant 5 years away from free company and two years away from arbitration eligibility, didn’t have an incredible quantity of leverage right here, and will effectively have been higher served by going yr to yr, significantly in a corporation that hasn’t constantly demonstrated a dedication to profitable, to say the least. But when he and the Pirates needed to make a constructive assertion in regards to the workforce’s future, together with the approaching wave of prospects corresponding to Cruz, catcher Henry Davis (no. 22) and righty starter Roansy Contreras (no. 41), this can be a good begin.