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AFC
Baltimore Ravens (6-2)
Deadly flaw: well being
It’s all coming collectively for Baltimore this season. Lamar Jackson is playing at an MVP level. New coordinator Todd Monken has invigorated the offense, clearing open straightforward buckets for the quarterback. On protection, coordinator Mike Macdonald is on the vanguard of a protection motion; he would be the high head teaching candidate heading into the offseason. For the primary time in years, the Ravens have a real cross rush. They win by means of scheme and particular person excellence. The one concern: can they hold this up? Accidents have already depleted elements of the roster, and the Ravens should not have depth in a very powerful spots to cowl up any well being considerations heading in direction of the again half of the season. Accidents have scuppered a Ravens title bid earlier than. In the event that they do keep wholesome although, they’ve the perfect championship method.
Miami Dolphins (6-2)
Deadly flaw: turnovers
The Dolphins are as near unstoppable on offense as any crew within the league. On protection although, the crew has struggled to generate the form of turnovers which might be a calling card of Vic Fangio’s often vaunted defenses. The Dolphins at present have a minus-four turnover differential, placing them twenty seventh within the league. They’ve solely eight defensive takeaways this season, the bottom mark amongst any Tremendous Bowl contender. The return of Jalen Ramsey may very well be an answer. Few gamers are as instinctive as Ramsey – and in Fangio’s protection he shall be given free rein to play all around the discipline, a freedom he has hardly ever loved all through his All-Professional profession.
Kansas Metropolis Chiefs (6-2)
Deadly flaw: receivers
That is one of the best protection that Patrick Mahomes has performed with in 5 seasons. For the primary time since Mahomes grew to become the starter, the Chiefs have cracked the highest 5 in DVOA, a measure of down-to-down effectivity. Provided that, you’d anticipate KC to be steamrolling all earlier than them.
They’re not although. Points exterior the Travis Kelce-Mahomes connection put a (slight) lid on the Chiefs’ offensive ceiling. GM John Dorsey moved on the commerce deadline to deliver again Mecole Hardman, however the they nonetheless discipline the weakest receiving corps among the many AFC’s high contenders. Maybe Mahomes and Kelce, with a supplementary run recreation, will show to be sufficient. They’ve accomplished it earlier than. The Chiefs have a reasonably benign schedule the remainder of the best way, loads of time for Mahomes to strike up the form of chemistry he has constructed earlier than with average-to-good receivers.
Jacksonville Jaguars (6-2)
Deadly flaw: cross rush
On paper, the Jags have every part a crew must compete deep into the postseason, together with an ascending quarterback and expertise on the talent positions. Now that Cam Robinson has returned from suspension and different members of his unit are wholesome, the Jags have one of the vital greatest offensive traces within the league. On protection, they’re good, athletic and malleable. However exterior Josh Allen, they’ve struggled to generate a constant cross rush. They’ve created loads of pressures however did not convert them into drive-ending sacks. A lot of Jacksonville’s oomph up entrance this season has been focused on Allen, who has been among the finest one-on-one rushers in soccer. Travon Walker, the 2022 No 1 general decide, has flashed promise after a disappointing rookie 12 months, however he’s but to point out that he can constantly win on the sting. If Walker can catch fireplace down the stretch, the Jaguars shall be one of many hardest groups to face within the playoffs.
Buffalo Payments (5-3)
Deadly flaw: inside defensive position
Sean McDermott reassumed artistic management of the Payments protection this offseason. To this point, the outcomes have largely been the identical. The Payments have been extra various on the back-end of their protection, and the crew’s cross rush, stable a 12 months in the past, has been wonderful this marketing campaign, even with Von Miller lacking the majority of the season. However Buffalo’s entrance can nonetheless be pushed round within the run recreation. Final season’s exit from the playoffs was maybe extra dispiriting than the 13-second loss to Kansas City. The Payments had been bullied by the Bengals upfront. And issues are trending in that route once more. In some unspecified time in the future, one of many Payments’ inside linemen – Jordan Phillips or Ed Oliver – must develop into a potent weapon in opposition to the run. How Buffalo allowed the Seahawks to swoop in to acquire Leonard Williams from the Giants stays a thriller.
Cincinnati Bengals (4-3)
Deadly flaw: cornerbacks
Now that Joe Burrow is absolutely wholesome, the Bengals’ offense seems to be like a special unit. What was an early concern (as all the time appears to be the best way with the Bengals offense) will dissipate over the course of the season. However there are points on protection. Lou Anarumo (Loudini!) stays among the finest defensive coordinators within the league. But there’s solely up to now he can scheme his solution to success. Previously couple of years, Cincy have been comfortable to get by with a weaker cornerback room because of the presence of Jessie Bates and Vonn Bell at security. Each left in free company and their replacements haven’t performed as much as the identical degree this season. The Bengals nonetheless have a artistic group and a ferocious pass-rush, however these cornerback spots may very well be uncovered within the playoffs with out sturdy security assist behind them.
NFC
Philadelphia Eagles (7-1)
Deadly flaw: linebackers and safeties
It’s arduous to search out any flaw on the Eagles’ roster. If there’s a lacking piece, you greatest consider Howie Roseman will go and discover it. Philly decided to deprioritize safeties and linebackers within the draft and free company. On stability, that’s the proper team-building strategy. But it surely has left the crew’s protection, at occasions, uncovered. The Eagles have coughed up 300 yard passing video games to Kirk Cousins and Mac Jones, and allowed Sam Howell to constantly drive down the sphere. Accidents to star cornerbacks Darius Slay and James Bradberry didn’t assist in the early levels of the season. Each are actually again, however opposing offenses are nonetheless discovering methods to isolate and assault the Eagles’ linebackers in protection.
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Detroit Lions (6-2)
Fatal flaw: inexperience
Poke around the Lions roster and you will find there are shockingly few holes for a team still early in its development cycle. They have the best offensive line in the league. They have playmakers on offense – and bolstered them this week with the addition of Donovan Peoples-Jones. On defense, a group that looked like it was a year away from coalescing has done so much quicker. Aidan Hutchinson is now an every-down difference-maker. Rookie Brian Branch has stepped in and delivered All-Pro output from the slot. Another first-year player, Jack Campbell, is still yet to find a settled spot, but has given quality reps regardless of where he’s lined up. Without a top perimeter cornerback, the secondary should have been a concern. There have been tough outings, but so far the secondary has been good enough to keep the Lions on a division-winning trajectory. Even the much-maligned Jared Goff has performed at a top-10 level among quarterbacks this season. The only thing holding Detroit back is a lack of players who have experience in the playoffs.
San Francisco 49ers (5-3)
Fatal flaw: defensive identity
If you want to point to the offensive line here, go right ahead. But the Niners’ issues on defense could be more important by the time the playoffs roll around. The Niners currently have one of the weakest run defenses in the league. Worse than that: there’s a schism between defensive coordinator Steve Wilks and a group filled with All-Pros.
When the Niners hired Wilks this offseason, they took a progressive approach. Rather than hire a DC with a settled philosophy, turning the keys to one of the best defenses in the NFL over to someone to shape in their own image, they opted to hand their playbook and their scheme to interviewees before settling on the best fit. The coach would inherit the scheme rather than build out his own style.
The returns have been iffy. The Niners had the top defense in the league last season by every conceivable metric. This season, they rank 11th in EPA per play and 16th in DVOA, both measures of efficiency. Wilks is struggling to marry the Niners’ fronts to their coverage, which is a fancy way of saying things are disjointed. For years, the Niners have been as structurally sound from front to back as any team in the league, with star players free to do what star players do best: fly to the ball.
As Wilks has struggled to adjust to the Niner way of doing things, he’s leaned on his old crutch: the blitz. The Niners are blitzing at just a 20% clip, the third lowest mark in the league. That’s down on last season’s total. But those blitz rates have fluctuated week-to-week, and have ticked up steadily in fourth-quarters when games have been tight – often proving costly.
Trading for Chase Young should see the Niners return to their previous methods: a four-down-and-go style that cheats an extra player into coverage. Pairing Young with Nick Bosa gives Wilks two players currently in the top-five in pass rush win %, something no other DC in the league can call on. But figuring out how to pair that with a solid structure, no matter the talent on defense, has been a challenge all season.
Dallas Cowboys (5-2)
Fatal flaw: explosive plays
It’s been an up and down season for the Cowboys offense. Some weeks, they smoke all before them. Other weeks, they look stodgy and stale. But, then, what else would you expect when you turn the offense over to Mike McCarthy and the DakBot? Prescott is the consummate on-time and in-rhythm quarterback. Pre-snap, he’s Peyton Manning-esque. But the Prescott who created offense out of structure early in his career is long gone. The offense has to generate explosive, shot plays through creative designs. In CeeDee Lamb, Brandin Cooks and Tony Pollard, the Cowboys have the pieces. Last season, Dallas totted up 126 explosive plays (12%) on their way to finishing third in the NFL in points a game. This season, they’re up to second in points a game, but have totalled just 27 (6%) explosive plays (gains of 10 or more yards on the run or 20 or more yards passing). McCarthy may believe that trade-offs are worth it; that it might not win brownie points in the regular season but it will set the Cowboys up for postseason success. But expecting to put drive after drive together against championship-caliber defenses is a tall ask. Dallas have to find ways to generate easier, chunk yardage.
Seattle Seahawks (5-2)
Fatal flaw: pass rush
Last season, it was all change for the Seahawks on defense. They ditched the old Pete Carroll doctrine and embraced the new Vic Fangio world. The results? Not great. Seattle were allergic to defending the run, and lacked the star power upfront to deliver a gamechanging pass rush.
It’s all change again this year. The Seahawks have reverted back to Carroll’s old way of doing things. The results so far have been impressive: Seattle have cracked the top 10 in defensive EPA per play and have been outstanding against the run and much improved in rushing the passer. The Seahawks rank 10th in pressure rate and fifth in the league in sacks. It’s been a team effort, with no one player shouldering the whole burden – Boye Mafe leads the team in pressure rate. Is it sustainable? Losing Uchenna Nwosu, the team’s most complete pass rusher, to a pectoral injury for the season stings. Adding Leonard Williams will help add a strong interior presence. But against the best of the best, do Seattle have the kind of one-on-one game-wreckers on the edge who can take over a postseason game?
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