Julio Rodríguez’s Hit Parade Helps Mariners March Into Playoff Position

You could possibly be forgiven for viewing Julio Rodríguez’s follow-up to final yr’s AL Rookie of the Yr season as one thing of a disappointment — the numbers actually bear that out. Even so, the 22-year-old heart fielder had already appeared to show a nook this month earlier than happening a hitting binge for the ages. Over a four-game span from Wednesday via Saturday, Rodríguez collected 17 hits, a significant league file. These hits have been hardly afterthoughts, as they helped the Mariners prolong their newest successful streak to 6 video games, a run that’s pushed them right into a Wild Card spot.

Rodríguez started his jag by going 4-for-6 in Wednesday’s 6-5 win over the Royals. He led off the sport with a double off James McArthur, sparking a three-run first inning, and added RBI singles within the second and ninth innings. Then he went 5-for-5 in Thursday’s 6-4 win towards the Royals, driving in 5 runs by way of an RBI single off Angel Zerpa, an RBI double off Max Castillo, and a three-run eighth-inning homer off Carlos Hernández that turned a 4-2 deficit right into a 5-4 lead. He added a solo dwelling run on Friday off the Astros’ J.P. France in a 2-0 win, after which went 4-for-6 in a 10-3 rout of Houston on Saturday, coming round to attain on two of his 4 singles.

The five-hit recreation was the primary of Rodríguez’s profession, whereas the three four-hit video games surpassed final yr’s full-season complete of two. His four-game complete topped a file that was almost a century previous:

Rodríguez joined Inventory — a strong however principally obscure infielder whose 12-year main league profession would end lower than a yr after his streak and a 202-hit season — as the one gamers to string collectively 4 straight video games with no less than 4 hits. As was identified on social media, Rodríguez’s 17 hits over these 4 video games matched the entire for the complete Yankees crew of their 4 losses to the Braves and Pink Sox from August 15-19, a sequence that just about sealed their destiny within the AL Wild Card race; if you’d like extra salt to rub in New York’s wounds, notice that Rodríguez outscored the hapless Yankees (5-4) as properly.

“I’ve by no means seen something prefer it,” said supervisor Scott Servais on Saturday. “No one within the historical past of Main League Baseball has seen something prefer it. However what are you able to say? Julio is simply smoking sizzling proper now.”

Rodríguez additionally collected hits on Tuesday towards the Royals and Sunday towards the Astros; by both measure, his 18 hits over a five-game span is tied for second all-time:

In all, Rodríguez has now hit in eight consecutive video games. Even earlier than this streak, he had put up a 132 wRC+ within the month for the reason that All-Star break, and had collected a number of hits in six of his earlier 13 video games. Now, his August is off the charts:

Solely 5 gamers have outhit Rodríguez in August, specifically Mookie Betts (236 wRC+), Zack Gelof (225), Corey Seager (216), Kerry Carpenter (210), and Brandon Belt (209), whereas solely Bobby Witt Jr. (1.7 WAR) and Betts (1.6) have equaled or surpassed Rodríguez’s 1.6 WAR for the month.

Rodríguez lately tweaked his swing. Via MLB.com’s Daniel Kramer:

A contributing trigger [for his hot streak]? A latest mechanical adjustment via session with Mariners hitting coach and director of hitting technique Jarret DeHart, who famous that Rodríguez has a wider stance and stronger base to start out. This creates extra load from the underside up and eliminates pointless actions en path to reaching his hitting place.

…“It simplifies issues,” Rodríguez stated of the adjustment. “Principally, your eyes are slightly extra clear. … It feels such as you did every thing you possibly can to place your self in that place and simply form of belief it. When you step to the plate, you’re trusting that you just’re going to get the job carried out.”

The consequence has been that he’s hitting the ball tougher, primarily to his pull aspect:

Observe that in each intervals, his groundball charge and groundball-to-fly ball ratio are increased than final yr’s numbers (46% and 1.29, respectively), and likewise, his common launch angle in each intervals is under final yr’s 10.1 levels. He’s been killing an entire lot of worms, however generally he’s hitting the ball onerous sufficient on the bottom to be productive. To wit, the place he had collected infield hits on 10.7% of his groundballs earlier than this month, he’s doubled that to 21.4% in August; 5 of the 17 hits over these 4 video games didn’t go away the dust. And whereas it’s not proven within the numbers above, he hasn’t hit an infield fly ball since June 17.

You may see the influence of that improved pull charge on Rodríguez’s Statcast anticipated stats:

Additionally notice that his anticipated numbers are literally nearly as good or higher than final yr, when he hit for a 146 wRC+ and was the toast of the baseball world. He outdid these anticipated numbers in 2022 however within the grand scheme, they’ve evened out this yr. It’s humorous how that works.

Rodríguez’s sizzling streak couldn’t have come at a a lot better time, as he’s helped to energy the Mariners to the AL’s finest file in August (14-4, .777), and for that matter within the second half as properly (24-11, .686). Right here’s a take a look at what that’s carried out to their playoff odds:

Amongst AL groups, solely Minnesota has elevated its odds by the next proportion (36.9%, from 57.6% to 95.4%) within the second half, however even earlier than that leap, they have been already extra possible than to not be taking part in in October, not like Seattle. Bearing the most important brunt of the Mariners’ enhance — or extra to the purpose, contributing essentially the most to their rise — are the Yankees, who by going 11-22 within the second half (and 5-13 in August) have fallen from 56.2% to 0.4%.

Rodríguez isn’t doing all of this alone, in fact. The crew has outscored opponents by 36 runs in 35 second-half video games, with an offense that’s averaging 4.97 runs per recreation and a pitching workers that’s surrendering simply 3.94 runs per recreation. On the offensive aspect, the crew entered Sunday having hit for a 123 wRC+ for the reason that break, in comparison with 99 prior, with each lineup common save for Teoscar Hernández and platoon DH Mike Ford enhancing his wRC+:

Marlowe has carried out an admirable job of filling in for the injured Kelenic (who broke his left foot kicking a water cooler on July 19), and even second base, the place Wong made the Replacement Level Killers list, has improved due to the trade of Paul Sewald to the Diamondbacks. Rojas, who arrived from Arizona in that four-player swap, hasn’t carried out a lot, however even his contributions and the spotwork of Caballero and Moore have raised the bar slightly after Wong was DFA’d on August 1. Caballero and Moore have recently been filling in for Crawford, who had been the most popular common within the second half earlier than touchdown on the seven-day concussion injured listing because of a collision with Suárez on August 10; after a rehab recreation with Excessive-A Everett on Saturday, he’ll rejoin the Mariners for his or her collection towards the White Sox and may very well be activated later in the present day.

On the opposite aspect of the ball, the story is concerning the bullpen, which has all of a sudden change into very stingy due to extra missed bats:

The commerce of Sewald raised some eyebrows — why would a crew that pictured itself as a contender deal its widespread nearer? — however up to now, basic supervisor Jerry Dipoto’s confidence in Seattle’s different relievers has paid off. We’re coping with small samples right here, however of the six relievers to throw no less than 10 innings within the second half, the very best ERA belongs to Matt Brash (3.18), with Justin Topa, Tayler Saucedo and Gabe Speier all at 1.50 or under. Likewise the very best FIP from that group belongs to Isaiah Campbell (3.95) with Brash, Topa, Saucedo and Speier all at 2.60 or under. Servais has taken a committee method to the ninth inning, with Andrés Muñoz changing six out of eight save probabilities, Brash three out of 4, and three others notching a single save.

In the meantime, it charges as considerably stunning {that a} rotation with the AL’s fifth-best ERA and third-best FIP general (each at 3.87 coming into Sunday) has been so blah throughout this surge, however George Kirby is the one one who’s been higher than league common in each ERA and FIP (3.56 and three.15, respectively) within the second half, with Luis Castillo and Logan Gilbert kind of common, Bryce Miller exhibiting some progress (3.49 ERA, 4.56 FIP), and the fifth starter spot pitching like fifth starters. (These days that’s been Emerson Hancock, although he strained a lat on Sunday and will land on the IL, scuttling plans for a six-man rotation simply as Bryan Woo nears a return from forearm irritation that sidelined him earlier this month.) That stated, the group has been stingier recently, highlighted by Kirby permitting two runs throughout a three-start, 21-inning span, and Miller permitting simply three runs in 17 innings over his final three begins.

By sweeping the Astros this weekend, the Mariners pulled to inside half a recreation of second place within the AL West, and inside three video games of the division-leading Rangers. They’ll get pleasure from a delicate schedule over the subsequent couple of weeks, with collection towards the White Sox, Royals, A’s and Mets — 4 groups which can be a mixed 137 video games under .500 — upcoming. They’re hardly assured a playoff spot, because the Blue Jays are simply half a recreation behind them, however all of a sudden this season is trying loads sunnier for Seattle.