José Ramírez Was Totally Different and Exactly the Same in 2023

José Ramírez is the definition of a set-it-and-forget-it participant, and I imply that at the least a bit of bit actually. Neither we nor our pals over at Baseball Prospectus revealed a single article that centered on him throughout a 2023 season when, for the fourth time in a row, he completed within the prime 10 within the AL MVP voting. He turned out to have a really attention-grabbing season, and never simply because he was, as at all times, wonderful.

In June of 2022, Ramírez injured the ulnar collateral ligament in his proper thumb. To the shock of the Cleveland teaching workers, he determined to play by vital ache and postpone surgical procedure till the offseason. Regardless of seeing his energy drop off dramatically, he ended the season with a 141 wRC+ and 6.4 WAR. He lastly had the surgical procedure in November and got here into the 2023 season wholesome, however he obtained off to a gradual begin and completed with a 123 wRC+. It was his worst displaying since 2019, when a damaged hamate bone ended his season prematurely. (As an apart, when you’re determined for for reassurance that Mike Trout will bounce again from his hamate harm, look no additional than Ramírez, who instantly returned to superstardom in 2020.)

The graph under spans three years so you’ll be able to see Ramírez in his wholesome 2021 season, then how his energy trailed off after the harm in ‘22, then the form of his 2023 season.

At first blush, that is a simple story to inform. Hand surgical procedure tends to rob hitters of energy, and it took some time for all these tiny muscular tissues in Ramírez’s hand to get again to regular. That large spike on the fitting aspect of the graph began rising on June 7, when he kicked off a nine-game hitting streak by going 2-for-4 with an RBI double in a win over the Pink Sox. Listed below are his 2023 stats, utilizing that date as a dividing line:

Ramírez began hitting the ball a lot tougher. He hit 3 times as many dwelling runs in nicely beneath half as many plate appearances. In reality, he ended the season with a 90-mph common exit velocity, the very best of his profession. These tiny little muscular tissues actually matter. However whereas it’s a real story, it’s not the entire story. Listed below are some extra stats utilizing that very same dividing line:

For the primary 60 video games of the season, Ramírez wasn’t hitting the ball as onerous however was additionally considerably unfortunate (although a few of it was as a consequence of his batted ball combine, which we’ll get to later). On the similar time, he was placing the ball in play extra usually. His stroll fee was a bit decrease, and his strikeout fee was greater than a bit decrease. To place these numbers in context, since 2016, Ramírez has run a ten.5% stroll fee and a 12% strikeout fee. These first 60 video games have been the outlier.

What was he doing otherwise? It’s not that he was chasing extra or making lots much less contact. It’s that he was extra aggressive on pitches within the zone.

As soon as once more, the primary row is the outlier, and the second row is correct in step with Ramírez’s profession numbers. He ended the season with a swing fee of 70.3% on pitches within the zone. That’s the very best fee of his profession, all due to these first 60 video games.

Swinging at extra pitches within the zone is often a very good factor, however look what occurs if we use Baseball Savant’s assault zones and break the strikes down into pitches over the center of the plate and pitches within the shadow zone. The desk under is simply his swing fee:

Now we’re getting someplace. Once more, the desk above solely pertains to pitches within the strike zone; it doesn’t embrace pitches that have been within the shadow zone however outdoors the zone. Initially of the season, regardless of not chasing extra, Ramírez didn’t actually distinguish between pitches over the center of the plate and pitches on the sides of the strike zone. After June 7, his swing fee on strikes within the shadow zone dropped again right down to and even under his profession fee of 57.6%.

As an instance the significance of that change, I’m going to point out you an unholy amalgam of two graphs from Pitcher Record. I took Ramírez’s strike zone judgment graph, and on prime of it, I crudely pasted his resolution worth graph. The white line exhibits how usually Ramírez made the fitting name when you have a look at issues in black and white: swing at pitches more likely to be known as strikes, and lay off pitches more likely to be known as balls. The purple line exhibits extra nuance, modeling the run worth of a swing or tackle any given pitch, then crediting or debiting the hitter based mostly on every resolution.

See the massive hole between the white and purple traces at the start of the chart? Earlier than his manufacturing took off, Ramírez was swinging at strikes and shedding balls, however he wasn’t essentially swinging at hittable pitches, particularly fastballs.

I discussed earlier that when Ramírez underperformed his wOBA throughout that early stretch, he might need been experiencing greater than unhealthy luck. That’s as a result of his batted ball distribution modified drastically:

Ramírez hit tons of fly balls, and he additionally hit extra balls to heart area, the place it takes extra energy to do harm. That’s not a recipe for achievement when you’re doing so at a time if you’re hitting the ball extra weakly. He additionally elevated his popup fee dramatically. Hanging out much less doesn’t assist in any respect when you’re simply changing these strikeouts with a special sort of automated out.

That stated, there actually was some unhealthy luck occurring right here. This desk is his efficiency solely on strikes within the shadow zone:

Ramírez underperformed his xwOBA by almost 100 factors. It’s onerous to chalk all of that as much as batted ball distribution. On pitches over the center of the plate, he was nonetheless hitting the ball a lot softer, however his precise and anticipated efficiency was roughly the identical:

There’s much more nuance at play than we have now time to dig into. For instance, there’s the truth that Ramírez is a switch-hitter. Listed below are two extra swing resolution charts, with Ramírez as a lefty on the left and as a righty on the fitting:

All through the season, these two traces appear to run counter to one another, with Ramírez making good choices from one aspect and unhealthy choices from the opposite aspect. I don’t know the place to start untangling that one.

I’m afraid that’s the place I’ll have to go away you. There’s a chicken-and-egg dialog available right here. It’s attainable that Ramírez adjusted his plate self-discipline as a result of hits weren’t falling in, due to doubts about his hand, as a result of he wasn’t hitting the ball as onerous, or due to another issue we will’t guess at. It’s additionally attainable that that is simply the sort of factor that occurs, and the harm is a handy place to assign the blame. There’s no actual strategy to know, and as quickly as Ramírez hit that sizzling stretch in early June, he went again to his normal, extra considered strategy.

In the long run, until you’re digging into the underlying metrics, you’ll see solely one other classic José Ramírez season. By DRC+, which appears at underlying metrics and never simply outcomes, he was at 133, the third-best season of his total profession. Because it stands, there’s no purpose that we shouldn’t anticipate him to place up one other ho-hum, five-win season in 2024. Nonetheless, we must always in all probability pay a bit of extra consideration to it, simply in case.