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The Astros capped off a dominant postseason run with a World Sequence title that confirmed off a well-rounded and star-studded group. They gained with nice beginning pitching, nice aid pitching, highly effective hitting, and glorious protection. This wasn’t a case of some guys getting scorching and carrying a moribund offense, or a heroic member of the rotation piling up innings that nobody counted on. The workforce stacked with good gamers up and down the roster merely deployed them as anticipated, and bought a parade for its hassle.
It’s humorous, in that context, to notice that among the best offenses in baseball had a transparent gap at first base. Yuli Gurriel, the longtime incumbent on the place, had an abysmal yr, compiling a .242/.288/.360 batting line that represented his second-worst efficiency within the majors (and his second poor displaying in three years). The Astros scored runs at a gaudy clip regardless of his decline, however they didn’t bury their heads within the sand about Gurriel; they traded for Trey Mancini on the deadline to shore up their first-base choices.
Unhealthy information: Mancini wasn’t superb both. He and Gurriel mixed to rack up -1.4 WAR with Houston. Yeesh. By the point the playoffs rolled round, the Astros have been utilizing unheralded rookie David Hensley as a right-handed DH in lieu of Mancini. It labored properly sufficient to win, nevertheless it was a wierd search for a workforce already punting on offense at catcher.
It will hardly have been a shock if the workforce seemed on the knowledge, shrugged, and wrote Gurriel a test to carry the place down subsequent yr. He’s a fan and workforce favourite, and proprietor Jim Crane has purportedly taken an energetic position in negotiations since firing GM James Click on. Houston’s offense was adequate with Gurriel at his worst, so how a lot worse might or not it’s subsequent yr, even when he didn’t get well?
As you most likely already know, both by the title of this text or by following the information, that didn’t occur. The Astros signed José Abreu, the highest free agent first baseman on my top 50 free agent rankings, to a three-year deal price $58.5 million, as Bob Nightengale, Chandler Rome and Mark Berman reported.
I really like this deal. In my view, Abreu is among the most underrated gamers within the sport. All he’s performed all through his main league profession is hit, and hit, and hit some extra. His wRC+ in 2022 was a sturdy 137. It’s additionally 137 over the three years of his just-completed contract, and 133 for his profession. His worst single-season mark was a still-solid 114 in 2018. He merely appears resistant to variance. He mixes energy and speak to in a method that solely the most effective hitters in baseball can match. Except you’re a particular expertise, you merely can’t swing as exhausting as he does with out accruing a messy pile of strikeouts.
There are a couple of methods to perform that trick. The “best,” by some definitions of simple, is to easily keep away from swinging at unhealthy pitches. You’ll be able to’t wave over a curveball beneath the zone for those who by no means swing at it. That’s an apparent good technique, nevertheless it’s simpler stated than performed. Most hitters, by definition, don’t have elite strike zone recognition. Abreu falls into the class of “most hitters” – he chases unhealthy pitches barely extra usually than the common main leaguer.
Another choice: by no means miss once you swing. That’s one other apparent one which’s tough to do. Everybody makes an attempt it, in fact, however the simple methods to make higher contact are to swing at higher pitches or swing with much less ferocity. That’s not Abreu’s plan both. This season was solely the second yr of his profession the place he posted a swinging strike charge decrease than the key league common, and his profession contact charge is strange.
Abreu’s trick is subtler. Regardless of that common total contact charge, he’s glorious with two strikes, which signifies that his early swings punish him much less. He’s additionally very aggressive total, which mixes along with his common contact to lead to a ton of balls in play early within the depend. Positive, he’s not going to stroll very a lot – 7% for his profession – however that’s a tremendous value to pay once you’re making up for it with a giant fats pile of extra-base hits. He’s even growing extra persistence over time; the 2 finest stroll charges of his profession have come within the final two years.
Regardless of the most effective plate self-discipline of his profession, 2022 wasn’t Abreu’s finest total offensive season. That’s as a result of his energy ticked down barely this yr; he hit solely 15 house runs en path to a .141 remoted energy, the bottom of his nine-year profession. I’m not anxious by that, although. He continued to crush the ball, along with his barrel charge declining by a lot lower than his energy output. In truth, he underperformed his anticipated Statcast numbers by an honest quantity, and nonetheless positioned within the 89th percentile or larger for each conceivable hard-hit statistic. I wouldn’t fear about Abreu abruptly dropping his energy, in different phrases.
And Abreu’s manufacturing will match completely into Houston’s lineup. With Michael Brantley reaching free company together with Gurriel and Mancini, they’d an offensive void to fill. That’s not precisely how baseball works – they might merely settle for worse offense, or depend on enchancment from incumbents to make up any shortfall. However in apply, it made sense for them to exchange like with like, and in that exact sense, getting a pile of offense out of a single hitter is simply what the physician ordered. It’s even in a fantastic form for the particulars of their workforce; Abreu’s excessive OBP is a pleasant match, as is the truth that a ton of it comes from hits, provided that the Astros regularly flood the basepaths.
As for the particulars of the deal, it makes good sense to me. I had pegged Abreu for 2 years and $18 million per yr in my contract estimates, however early contracts have all are available in barely larger than my projections, which makes this proper in keeping with the remainder of the market. I don’t assume there’s a lot threat of Abreu falling off a cliff, so the Astros ought to have first base locked up for a bit. There’s additionally not a lot probability of Houston falling out of competition, one other method that offers for veteran hitters can go unsuitable. As an added bonus, Abreu ought to have the ability to rotate to DH if vital at the very least a few of the time; Yordan Alvarez, the incumbent DH, spent loads of final yr in left subject. He’s not nice on the market, but when Abreu wants the occasional time without work of his ft, I feel the scenario ought to work out simply tremendous.
All in all, this appears like a stable deal for each side. Houston wanted extra offense at first base. Abreu most likely wished to proceed taking part in for a contender; he was the one fixed in Chicago’s rise to relevance, and it could be unusual to go away after that spectacular climb and begin over at age 36. I anticipated him to return to Chicago, however this appears like an equally good touchdown spot, if not a greater one: he’ll match proper into the workforce’s competition window and sure into the clubhouse as properly.
Houston’s offseason doesn’t go from complicated to nice with this one signing. They nonetheless have an unsettled entrance workplace and a pending Justin Verlander determination. The AL West isn’t getting any simpler; the Mariners are right here to remain and the Angels are doing their finest to maximise the final yr earlier than Shohei Ohtani hits free company. Subsequent yr gained’t be a cakewalk by any means. By including Abreu, although, Houston has added some margin for error. We all know they’ll win the division even with no manufacturing at first base. Now they’ve added one other bat that may assist decide up shortcomings elsewhere.
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