Joey Ortiz Is Succeeding Strangely

This text isn’t actually about Joey Ortiz. Or, nicely, it’s, however it’s additionally about how numbers will idiot you. Let’s begin with a number of numbers, then. Ortiz is strolling 12.9% of the time thus far this 12 months, excess of common and excess of he ever did within the excessive minors. He’s chasing pitches exterior of the strike zone solely 24% of the time, an enormous change in method. Final 12 months within the minor leagues, that quantity stood at 34.5%. In consequence, he’s swinging and lacking far much less typically. There’s the story of how Ortiz has improved.

Only one drawback: That story doesn’t maintain as much as nearer examination. Let’s break the strike zone up into 4 components the best way Baseball Savant and the Statcast crew do it. There’s the center of the plate (coronary heart), the perimeters of the plate and the world simply off of it (shadow), the world the place good breaking pitches typically find yourself (chase), and the land of non-competitive pitches (waste). You’d anticipate Ortiz to swing much less often than common at chase and waste pitches. You’d be incorrect:

That’s baffling. For comparability’s sake, teammate Rhys Hoskins has related chase and zone swing charges, and he’s swinging at 17% of chase pitches and 1% of waste pitches. He’s additionally swinging extra often than Ortiz at pitches over the center of the plate.

The rationale this may occur is the shadow zone. These are the hardest pitches to guage, and in combination batters have a tricky time telling ball from strike in that space. They’re swinging at 59.9% of shadow zone pitches that cross the zone, versus 43.6% of the time at pitches that simply barely miss the rulebook zone. In different phrases, hitters are swinging much less, however they’re nonetheless getting fooled very often. That makes good intuitive sense. When a hitter takes a pitch a fraction of an inch off the plate, somebody is more likely to say “I don’t know the way he managed to take that” or “what a take!” It’s extremely troublesome to put off of these close to misses.

Solely, it hasn’t been troublesome for Ortiz. He’s pretty unremarkable in the case of swinging at shadow pitches within the zone, which I’ll name “shadow-in” pitches; his 53% shadow-in swing price is lower than league common however not by a staggering quantity. How about shadow-out? He’s instantly Juan Soto, with a 25.2% swing price. The truth is, Soto swings 30.8% of the time at these pitches. Solely three gamers in all of baseball – Andrew McCutchen, Jonathan India, and LaMonte Wade Jr. – are fishing much less often on these extraordinarily troublesome pitches.

That’s spectacular. However it goes from spectacular to complicated when you think about the remainder of what he’s doing. If a batter has the requisite abilities to separate the pitches that clip the zone from those that simply miss it, we’d anticipate them to mash pitches down the center of the plate and ignore unhealthy ones. However Ortiz isn’t doing that in any respect. He has one of many lowest coronary heart of the plate swing charges in all of baseball, and he swings at pitches within the chase zone greater than common.

Is that this some particular ability of Ortiz’s? I’m skeptical, not due to something particularly about his sport, however as a result of it doesn’t make intuitive sense. Right here’s one mind-set about it. Right here’s a curated listing of gamers with related gaps between their coronary heart swing price and chase swing price: Adley Rutschman, Paul Goldschmidt, CJ Abrams, Logan O’Hoppe, Ke’Bryan Hayes, Bryson Stott, Sal Frelick. I don’t consider these guys as having notably sterling batting eyes; fairly, I hardly suppose twice about them in the case of plate self-discipline. Ortiz outstrips everybody round him in the case of discerning pitches within the shadow zone, although; the gamers on this cohort drop their swing charges by 13 proportion factors within the transition from shadow-in to shadow-out, and he’s at 27.8 proportion factors.

On the opposite aspect of the coin, think about the hitters who decide proper from incorrect on the margins of the zone in addition to Ortiz. This group contains hitters like Francisco Lindor, Austin Riley, Masataka Yoshida, Fernando Tatis Jr., Steven Kwan, and Ian Happ. These guys know what they’re doing on the plate. However they swing at extra meatballs and get fooled into swinging at fewer chase pitches than Ortiz does by an enormous margin; they’ve a 52 proportion level hole in these two swing charges, versus 37 proportion factors for Ortiz.

It is a long-winded means of claiming that in case you’re searching for the talents which are going to make Ortiz a wonderful main league hitter, you want to look past his eye on the plate. Does he even have among the best eyes in baseball? Nearly definitely not. However he in all probability gained’t swing at so few pitches over the center of the plate going ahead both, as a result of he clearly has no less than a good sense of the zone; you don’t find yourself with numbers like his utterly accidentally.

So is he among the best gamers in baseball in the case of telling balls from strikes, or merely common? In all probability someplace within the center, however I feel he’ll proceed to earn robust walks at an above-average clip. See, a part of the explanation that his coronary heart swing price is so unhealthy is that he lets pitchers put him in a gap to begin plate appearances. Ortiz takes first pitches extra often than the league as a complete; he additionally takes 1-0 and 0-1 pitches extra often than the league as a complete. These pitches are disproportionately proper down the center of the plate.

The factor is, Ortiz doesn’t actually need to do this. That method makes extra sense in case you’re both a slap hitter who desires to work a stroll or are looking a pitch in a specific location. As finest as I can inform, neither of those displays who Ortiz is as a hitter. He does most of his injury proper over the center of the plate, identical to you’d anticipate. He began hitting for extra energy in 2023, and that’s carried proper over into 2024.

Naturally, that energy isn’t really easy to know both. Ortiz swings the bat arduous and the common exit velocity of the highest half of his batted balls is within the high third of the league. That’s fairly good, however nothing particular. He additionally mishits the ball quite a bit, which is how he finally ends up with beneath common exit velocity, candy spot price, and squared up price. In different phrases, he’s sacrificing some contact consistency to provide loud contact when he does join.

That’s paying off, as a result of he’s an exceptional contact hitter. Regardless of his aggressive hacks, he’s making contact on 92% of the in-zone pitches he swings at, an elite price. Mix that along with his unconventional strike zone mastery, and you’ve got a really robust out. Are you able to get Ortiz to swing at unhealthy pitches? Most undoubtedly. Is he vulnerable to some mishits? For positive. However these are small headwinds contemplating all of the issues Ortiz is doing proper on the plate.

Oh yeah, he’s an important defender, too. He’s largely performed third this 12 months, however can deal with second and shortstop as nicely. If it weren’t for Willy Adames, he’d in all probability be the Brewers’ on a regular basis shortstop, and I’d anticipate Ortiz to take over that function if Adames leaves in free company after this season. Put merely, Ortiz appears like a future foundational participant in Milwaukee.

He doesn’t have to sustain his present tempo on offense for that to be the case, which is an efficient factor. I don’t suppose he’ll keep both his outrageous energy on contact outcomes or his sterling strikeout-to-walk ratio. If I needed to guess, I’d put him down for an offensive line round 10% higher than common the remainder of the best way, just a little worse than the anticipated numbers he’s produced thus far in 2024 and far worse than his precise manufacturing.

That’s not a disappointment, although. For those who went again in time and instructed final 12 months’s Brewers followers that the crew would commerce Corbin Burnes, they’d be upset. For those who instructed them that the return can be a wonderful defensive infielder who hits for energy and will get on base, they’d be excited. For those who instructed them that infielder can be round via 2029, they’d be ecstatic. And in case you instructed them they’d get one other high prospect (left-hander DL Hall) within the discount, they in all probability wouldn’t imagine you. The Brewers and Orioles have each come out of the Burnes commerce forward, and Ortiz’s spectacular efficiency is a big motive why.