Jaylen Brown: an average player among the elite?

Earlier than you begin studying this text, I ask that you simply include an open thoughts and do not forget that I’m evaluating Jaylen Brown to the elite gamers of this world, not all the league. Furthermore, this piece focuses solely on his on-court influence as a result of it may be measured, and that issues to me. Due to this fact, whereas I acknowledge Jaylen Brown’s management, aura, and awards, the focus of this text is his on-court manufacturing.

To raised perceive Jaylen Brown’s on-court influence, I dove deep into his statistics and rewatched video games from latest seasons. Whereas Jaylen Brown can typically seem like the most effective participant on this planet (as Oliver Fox noted), the numbers don’t inform the identical story.

Picture by Maddie Malhotra/Getty Pictures

Jaylen Brown, a scoring machine – actually?

At 23 factors per recreation, Jaylen Brown ranks nineteenth on the record of high scorers. Nevertheless, factors per recreation is a statistic with some grey areas. It doesn’t inform us in regards to the quantity wanted or the effectivity behind these 23 factors. To evaluate scoring means, it’s essential mix two statistics: Utilization Charge (quantity) and True Capturing Share (effectivity). So, how does Jaylen Brown measure up in scoring in comparison with the league’s high-volume gamers?

The reply: fairly common. In line with Cleansing The Glass, amongst 53 gamers with a Utilization Charge above 25%, Jaylen Brown ranks twenty seventh in effectivity (TS%)—between 21-year-old Alperen Şengün and 23-year-old Tyrese Maxey. Taking a look at a bigger pool from Basketball Reference, Brown ranks fiftieth in TS% among the many high 100 gamers by Utilization Charge this season. It doesn’t get extra “common among the many elite” than that.

However why isn’t Jaylen Brown extra environment friendly? And why does he typically seem extra environment friendly than the stats recommend?

Highlights don’t all the time equate to productiveness

Jaylen Brown’s common effectivity stems from two interrelated elements. The primary is his shot choice. Brown takes 36% of his photographs within the mid-range, the least environment friendly space on the court docket. He’s excellent on this zone — 48% of his mid-range makes an attempt go in, inserting him among the many finest. Nevertheless, excelling in a “low-reward” space doesn’t increase his total effectivity.

https://www.bball-index.com/shot-charts-lite/

Whereas 36% of his photographs come from the low-reward mid-range, solely 30% come from past the three-point line, most of them from above the break that are much less environment friendly than nook threes. Whereas this is smart as a result of nook threes are usually for position gamers, you could possibly argue that taking extra of them might assist enhance his effectivity. Nevertheless, his three-point shot choice isn’t overly problematic.

The second issue impacting his effectivity is his free-throw capturing, or somewhat, his lack of presence on the line and his struggles when he will get there. His relationship with the free-throw line is puzzling.

Picture by Nathaniel S. Butler/NBAE by way of Getty Pictures

Utilizing Free Throw Charge (the ratio of FT makes an attempt to FG makes an attempt), we see that among the many high 100 gamers by Utilization Charge on Basketball Reference, Brown ranks sixty fourth in Free Throw Charge. How is it that the most effective in-game dunkers doesn’t get to the road extra usually than the common NBA participant?

Once more, the numbers don’t match the highlights. Compounding the difficulty, Brown shoots solely 70% from the road, under the league common of 78%. These numbers are exhibiting once more some holes in Jaylen Brown recreation among the many elite.

Jaylen Brown appears to be absent from the high-reward zones (free throws and three-pointers) however extremely energetic within the low-reward zone. So, what about his relationship with the last word high-reward zone—the rim?

The Rim: focus of the issue, or the answer?

Brown makes an attempt 34% of his photographs on the rim—a good quantity in comparison with comparable gamers (69th percentile amongst wings, per Cleansing The Glass). Nevertheless, that is down from his early seasons, when over 40% of his photographs had been on the rim.

As for his effectivity on the rim, it’s… common. Among the many 76 gamers with greater than 4 rim makes an attempt per recreation final season, Brown ranks forty eighth in FG%. Whereas a few of these gamers are merely rim runners, amongst wings, Brown ranks within the 61st percentile—barely above common. Good, however with room for greatness.

Brown is among the NBA’s finest finishers on the rim, however the issue arises earlier than he will get there. What if his incapacity to be elite on the rim and generate extra free throws stems from the sorts of rim makes an attempt he takes? His deal with and court docket imaginative and prescient have improved, however not sufficient to constantly create optimum conditions for himself. Nevertheless, when Brown receives a lift from teammates, he turns into unstoppable. For instance:

• In the course of the common season: 67% on the rim whereas assisted on 51% of his made makes an attempt.
• In the course of the playoffs: 75% on the rim whereas assisted on 62% of his made makes an attempt.

Brown’s pace and explosiveness are much more harmful when he doesn’t have the ball and might leap above defenders. With extra off-ball motion, Brown might change into the elite finisher he’s destined to be. He might preserve his mid-range quantity whereas rising effectivity. His common effectivity isn’t fully his fault, however to change into an environment friendly one, his position and method want adjustment.

Whereas I hope the teaching workers tweaks Brown’s utilization to contain extra off-ball play, what do the numbers say about Brown as a creator for others?

Jaylen as a main creator

Now that we’ve coated Brown’s scoring, what can we are saying about his means to create for others? How do the Celtics carry out when Brown is the first creator on the ground?

In line with Cleansing The Glass, amongst 53 gamers with a Utilization Charge above 25% and at the least 1,500 minutes, Brown ranks forty ninth in creation for others, forward of solely Jaren Jackson Jr., Karl-Anthony Cities, Cam Thomas, and Jerami Grant. The statistic used right here is assist-to-usage ratio (AST:Usg), which helps quantify a participant’s passing relative to their total quantity.

Rating forty ninth out of 53 gamers on this class doesn’t imply Brown can’t cross or discover his teammates. Nevertheless, it strongly suggests, as we famous earlier, that Brown is primarily a finisher, not a playmaker. One other metric pointing in the identical path is the Celtics’ efficiency when Brown is the first creator. Over the previous three years, Brown has logged 2,659 minutes with out Jayson Tatum (in each the common season and playoffs).

When this occurs, Brown’s Utilization Charge jumps from 27.6% to 34.4% per PBP Stats. Briefly, when Tatum is on the bench, Brown turns into the go-to man. Individually, his True Capturing share drops barely however stays regular (from 58.3% to 57.6%). Nevertheless, the staff’s offense modifications considerably.

Over the previous three years, when Brown and Tatum shared the court docket, the Celtics’ offensive ranking was 118.71. However in these 2,659 minutes with Brown as the first possibility, the Celtics’ offensive ranking dropped to 115.10 (for reference, the offensive ranking with Tatum however with out Brown was 121.44 over 3,973 minutes). The offensive dip when Brown is the point of interest isn’t attributable to variance or unhealthy luck—the pattern dimension is just too giant for that.

These numbers maintain suggesting that whereas Brown is an elite finisher, he isn’t an elite creator, regardless of what some highlights may recommend.

We will ask for extra, and he can ship

Jaylen Brown has the supermax contract, the Finals MVP, and All-NBA standing. He’s a licensed star, a Celtics legend. Nevertheless, after analyzing his on-court numbers, I feel we’re justified in asking for extra. Jaylen Brown and the Boston Celtics teaching workers ought to discover methods to optimize his position so he can attain his full potential.

With some changes—higher off-ball utilization and a extra methodical method—Brown might change into an elite scorer. However for now, the numbers don’t lie, and Jaylen Brown stays common among the many elite. There’s nothing mistaken with being common among the many elite, however is that what we anticipate from a Finals MVP on a supermax contract? Extra importantly, is it what Jaylen Brown expects from himself?