Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 9/9/22

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, of us, and welcome to a different Friday chat!

Jay Jaffe: Bear with me for a second as my lunch simply arrived…

Visitor: Ideas on the brand new rule modifications reported yesterday? I’ve wished pitch clocks for awhile however really trying on the rule there’s 50 totally different ways in which the batter or the pitcher can break the rule. I’m nervous it’s gonna really feel ridiculous when the Sox lose to the Twins as a result of Aaron Bummer forgot what number of occasions he stepped off the rubber or no matter.

Jay Jaffe: Conceptually I’m in favor of a pitch clock, I’ve come round on the concept that it’s price seeing what banning the shift would do, and the larger bases are nice. Nonetheless, there are some complexities to the foundations modifications that I truthfully haven”t taken the time to digest but. I do know i’m alleged to have a blistering scorching take right here, however the range ain’t lit but

Erik: I get energetic enjoyment from the shift. Watching Manny Machado catch a ball in foul territory in proper discipline makes me happier than a seeing-eye single ever will. Am I extra within the minority than I believed?

Jay Jaffe: I get the enchantment of seeing one thing so out-of-the-ordinary however emotions in regards to the shift are likely to correlate with whoever’s ox is being gored. Me, I’ve come round to the concept that the drop in league-wide batting common is a long-term downside; the disappearance of singles that transfer baserunners is a drain on the quantity of motion happening, and I feel that’s what individuals really feel is the largest downside with the sport

Curious Jorge: Does Longerhagen not do chats anymore?

Jay Jaffe: I gained’t presume to talk for anybody else’s availability however once I’m overworked, overscheduled, and/or overtired, forgoing the chat is a primary line of protection. I’m positive you all have prospect questions however most of them will in all probability nonetheless be related subsequent week or every time

HoF Query: Are the Cardinals the staff with essentially the most surefire HOFers on the roster with Pujols, Molina, Goldschmidt, and Arenado? Dodgers have Kersh, Betts, and perhaps Freeman. The Mets have Mad Max, DeGrom, and Lindor. However I don’t suppose anybody else has 4.

Jay Jaffe: You’re stretching the definition of surefire there. I feel possible is the extra apt time period for everyone you point out in addition to Pujols, Kershaw, and Scherzer, and I don’t see Lindor or deGrom as possible but. Potential however not on the tipping level.

Jay Jaffe: However sure, I feel the Cardinals have essentially the most possible HOFers proper now. Late final yr it was the Dodgers who had 4 with Pujols and Scherzer

David: In the event that they keep comparatively wholesome, it’s doable that Trout and Harper can finally mix for greater than 200 WAR by the point they retire. Have there been different pairs of rookies who began their much-anticipated MLB careers at about the identical time and mixed for such a excessive degree of manufacturing?

Jay Jaffe: Mickey Mantle debuted with the Yankees and Willie Mays with the Giants inside a six-week span in 1951. I don’t suppose they had been as extremely anticipated by most of the people as a result of prospects weren’t as properly publicized however I don’t suppose you’re going to discover a higher-value pair whose debuts had been as shut

Pepe: How way more does DeGrom should do to make the Corridor of Fame (apart from achieve eligibility by throwing a pitch in his tenth season, which is 2023)? He looks like an fascinating take a look at case for “high quality over amount.”

Jay Jaffe: I wrote in early 2021 (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jacob-degrom-might-be-blazing-his-way-to-c…) about deGrom probably being a Koufaxian exception, however since then he missed greater than a full yr. He actually wants to remain wholesome and possibly add a 3rd Cy Younger award with a view to punch his ticket. With out the {hardware}, he’s this era’s Johan Santana, and we noticed him get simply 2.4% in 2018.

Joe: Ideas on Choose and Pujols probabilities of reaching their milestones?

Jay Jaffe: I feel the maths continues to be towards each however I hope Choose will get to 62 and Pujols to 700. Would possibly test in on each quickly

Jim: I do know they’re nonetheless in first place (in the present day) however I can’t shake the sensation that the Yankees are doomed to a primary spherical flop, then god is aware of what subsequent yr. Are they doomed or am I only a Yankees fan?

Jay Jaffe: Now, in the event that they weren’t getting Rizzo, LeMahieu, Severino, and probably others again, and had been sending this week’s horseshit lineups into the Division Sequence, I wouldn’t give them a lot of an opportunity to win the World Sequence, however that’s as a result of these lineups aren’t consultant of the work that acquired them to that stage.

Dan: Will we have now roboumps subsequent yr?

Jay Jaffe: Not within the majors. 2024 is feasible if issues go properly within the minors and with additional testing however these aren’t ensures.

mmddyyyy: How lengthy wouldn’t it take you to call each participant within the Corridor?

Jay Jaffe: Ha, i’ve by no means tried. I wager in the event you gave me a pair hours I may get very shut as a result of I wrote about all of them in addition to the Negro Leagues gamers for the Casebook

Pitch_Out: Did you hear the Katie Sharp stat that over the previous month, Choose has had a 230 wRC+ and all different Yankees mixed for a 54 wRC+ and had been price -0.5 WAR? Unbelievable. I feel Ohtani is having an amazing season however context has to matter within the MVP race, proper? Choose has strapped the Yankees to his again and is carrying them.

Jay Jaffe: Is Katie the one who got here up with the cut up? I noticed Bryan Hoch of MLB.com cite comparable

Jay Jaffe: if context issues for Choose, it has to matter for Ohtani too, and right here’s some context for you: in an AL/NL context, NOBODY IN THE PAST CENTURY HAS DONE WHAT HE’S DOING, EXCEPT SOME GUY NAMED OHTANI LAST YEAR.

Jay Jaffe: this can be a unicorn race. Which unicorn you like is as much as you.

Visitor: how do you suppose entrance workplaces will regulate to the larger bases? Is there going to be a major shift in direction of constructing sooner groups that steal extra bases, or do you suppose the change isn’t sufficiently big to trigger a giant philosophical change from the way in which issues are proper now?

Jay Jaffe: I don’t suppose the larger bases themselves may have a huge effect on base stealing however the pitch clock-related limitations on the variety of throws will. And I feel we’ll see some experimentation earlier than anybody discovers how a lot it will actually have an effect from a philosophical standpoint.

JK: Do you continue to have any hope for Jared Kelenic, above common main league participant or has that ship sailed?

Jay Jaffe: he’s 23, so sure, I nonetheless have hope, however I feel his ceiling is decrease and that he would possibly want an org change to achieve it.

Sodo Mojo: Jay thanks for doing the chat given Mitch Hanigers latest type and damage historical past what ought to the Mariners do that off season?  Provide him a QA, Give him and incentive laden deal?

Jay Jaffe: I don’t suppose he deserves a qualifying provide however I do suppose he’s price retaining given the aforementioned failure of Kelenic  in addition to Kyle Lewis’ damage troubles. A multiyear take care of incentives and escalators looks like the way in which to go.

Do you know: Spencer Strider has the second finest FIP amongst rookie pitchers with not less than 120 IP within the trendy period, behind solely Dwight Gooden. And actually the perfect FIP- amongst rookie pitchers with the identical IP minimal within the historical past if baseball.

Justin: At what level is it okay to get irrationally enthusiastic about the way forward for Michael Harris II?

Jay Jaffe: Strider and Harris have each been exceptional, serving to to show the Braves’ season round and making for fairly the Rookie of the 12 months race. I’m extra skeptical about whether or not Strider can proceed to dominate with a two-pitch method — it really works nice when he’s averaging 98 mph but it surely’s very robust to take care of that velocity for lengthy as a starter, and what does the image seem like when he’s right down to 96?

Harris is properly above his Statcast anticipated numbers, and I fear about that 4.7% stroll price and 43% O-Swing price, however he’s clearly a keeper, because the Braves clearly acknowledged through his extension.

mmddyyyy: When the variety of groups modifications, will there nonetheless be 1000 WAR/yr?

Jay Jaffe: I’m fairly positive will probably be scaled upwards. The 1000 WAR/yr applies to the 30-team period, which has been in place since 1998, that means that it’s been in place since WAR was invented, although it wasn’t till 2013 that bWAR and fWAR had been unified to the identical alternative degree https://blogs.fangraphs.com/unifying-replacement-level/

Jay Jaffe: With 32 groups, 1000 WAR/3 scales as much as 1066.7 WAR

mmddyyyy: Contemplating there are extra All Star picks total now, and the truth that each staff will get one, is whole all star groups made now price much less when contemplating the worth of a profession?

Jay Jaffe: All-Star appearances is a quantity that wants historic context at nearly each flip. There was no All-Star Recreation earlier than 1933. From 1933-60, there have been simply eight groups in every league so making the staff was simpler. From 1959-62 two All-Star Video games had been performed every season, which unfold the consideration out a bit (and created some complications for these of us extra inquisitive about counting All-Star seasons than All-Star Video games performed in). Enlargement taking us from 16 to 30 groups reduces the chance of a participant making the staff to a higher diploma than the marginally expanded rosters do to extend their probabilities

DC in STL: What to make of Dylan Carlson? Fairly disappointing yr. Do you suppose he has a shot at being a a number of All Star, or is he going to be an average-ish participant for his profession? Jon Jay with extra pop and fewer velocity.

Jay Jaffe: Carlson’s offense has been a disappointment up to now, however on the identical time he’s proven that he’s an above-average heart fielder, which wasn’t actually the expectation two years in the past (Eric referred to as him “a situational heart fielder” in his 2020 writeup). He’s nonetheless simply 23 so I wouldn’t surrender on him and I definitely don’t see the Cardinals doing so; quite the opposite, they traded Harrison Bader

john maynor: who wins the excitingly mediocre AL Central? and do any of these three not get wiped instantly within the playoffs?

Jay Jaffe: Most likely the Guardians however jeez, all three groups appear fairly mediocre; they’re all beneath .500 when it comes to mixed information towards  the AL East and West, and solely the White Sox are even .500 as soon as  you fold interleague play into that.

Stats: Sorry, I by chance hit ship early.  evaluating Jeter’s numbers to Altuve’s I see that Altuve’s are constantly stronger when adjusted to period. Nonetheless, Jeter’s oWAR is far increased (despite the fact that their identical age). Is that this discrepancy from base operating or is SS that a lot of a distinction than 2B or each? Thanks

Jay Jaffe:

Visitor: Do you suppose the homeowners are going to remorse going so excessive with the pitch clock when video games are 45 minutes shorter they usually understand they’ve blown 20% of their concessions income? (Plus for pitchers one thing like :18 would have been a neater transition and nonetheless 6 seconds faster than the present avg.)

Jay Jaffe: not if it will increase viewership and the worth of their broadcast rights contracts.

TL Hopper: How can Taylor Partitions simultanously be the perfect defensive SS, UZR, and the worst OAA/DRS?  fWAR and bWAR, one has him as just about the worst participant in baseball, the opposite a mean common.

Jay Jaffe: Partitions isn’t the perfect by UZR; his 12 DRS is tied for third amongst shortstops albeit in fewer innings than the opposite three guys tied or forward. Mike Petriello took a take a look at his DRS/OAA discrepancy a bit in the present day on Twitter [color: rgba(var(–sk_highlight,18,100,163),1);]

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Josh: What are you most trying ahead to following over the subsequent month? AL WC? NLE? Goldy triple crown? Dodgers 110+?

Jay Jaffe: These are all enjoyable, as is Choose’s HR pursuit, all the pieces Ohtani does, the ROY races… man, we have now so much to get pleasure from.

Dick Allen is a Corridor of Famer: Solely 5 certified hitters this yr have as excessive a wRC+ as Mr. Allen averaged for his complete profession.

Jay Jaffe: you’re preaching to the choir right here.

Soros: The place do you come down on true compilers like Yadier Molina and the HOF? I’ve given up on combating his candidacy, particularly after the Baines fiasco however I’d love the Corridor to have gamers that had been really like high 5 (or increased) gamers within the recreation at their peak.

Jay Jaffe: At the same time as any person who’s been the low man on Molina at occasions, I’d be hard-pressed to name him a compiler, and if you say “top-five” kind gamers you’re implicitly telling me that you just’re disregarding protection and need solely heavy hitters whose numbers leap out at you. That Corridor of Fame doesn’t exist besides in your thoughts, and also you’re definitely free to maintain it there but it surely ain’t occurring in Cooperstown.

Insert Witty Title Right here: Does enjoying in NY make deGrom a barely higher wager than Johan on the poll? I watched Johan in his prime, and deGrom is so significantly better.

Jay Jaffe: Nonetheless, inside their careers, deGrom has topped 6.0 WAR simply twice, the place Santana topped 7.0 WAR 4 occasions. Santana had 5 seasons of 219 innings or extra the place deGrom’s excessive is 217.

Jay Jaffe: The utilization patterns have modified, however each had been/are exceptional. Santana probalby ought to have had a 3rd Cy Younger award, which could have modified the Corridor dialog. Will deGrom, who’s already had one TJ, even final lengthy sufficient to build up one other ~720 innings and surpass Santana’s meager profession whole? I don’t suppose it’s a assure.

Dan: When you had a couple of million to spend on sports activities memorabilia what would you purchase?

Jay Jaffe: Oh jeez. I’m not an enormous memorabilia man as a result of I stay in a New York Metropolis residence and, in any case, am a author not a inventory dealer or any person with that form of disposable revenue. I’d have to consider {that a} bit, however perhaps bats of Ruth, Mays, and Aaron, and one thing from the streaks of Fernando Valenzuela and Orel Hershiser can be the place I’d begin.

Erik: How excited are you for the “61 iS tHe ReAL rEcoRd” discuss down the stretch?

Jay Jaffe: It’s as straightforward to flick away as a fly on a picnic plate

Jay Jaffe: 73 is the most important league (and NL) report. Choose has a shot on the AL and franchise report. That’s a lot cool sufficient.

Jay Jaffe: it shouldn’t matter, however Choose did his finest to deflect the silliness by noting that he regards Bonds because the record-holder. ““That’s the report. I watched him do it. I stayed up late watching him do it. That’s the report. Nobody can take that from him.”

Matt VW: With likeliest playoff contributors in thoughts, which potential World Sequence matchup strikes you as essentially the most intriguing / interesting?

Jay Jaffe: I need Dodgers-Yankees. That’s what made me a baseball fan within the first place and I’ve spent extra time writing about and watching these two groups in my lifetime than another.

Darryl Vanilla: Peak DeGrom or Peak Pedro?

Jay Jaffe: Peak Pedro. From 1997-2003, he had a 213 ERA+ in 1400 innings, which is greater than deGrom has thrown in his total main league profession.

Pedro: The place do you come down on Dwight Evans’ omission from the Corridor? Thanks

Christian: I’m satisfied Kelenic and Haggerty swapped our bodies

Jay Jaffe: fascinating concept.

Didace: “At what level is it okay to get irrationally enthusiastic about the way forward for Michael Harris II?” Atlanta followers – Victor Robles had a 3.6 WAR as a rookie in 2019. Simply sayin’.

Jay Jaffe: However Robles by no means demonstrated this sort of offensive prowess. That 3.6-WAR season featured a 92 wRC+, the place Harris is at 143.

Jay Jaffe: okay of us, a number of good questions nonetheless within the queue however I’ve gotta go. Heading as much as Yankee Stadium to see Yanks-Rays with a pal tonight. Thanks for stopping by and I hope you all get pleasure from your weekends!

vr: to paraphrase ellen adair, ohtani will not be a unicorn, he’s a unicorn who additionally occurs to be a phoenix

Jay Jaffe: good one! needed to share