Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 8/27/24

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, of us! Welcome to a different version of my Tuesday chat. Apologies that it’s been a number of weeks since my final one. Deadlines and summer time journey will do this. Anyway, I’m at the moment engaged on a chunk checking in on the seasons of the Boras 4, none of which has proceeded as deliberate, and on Monday I appeared into Shohei Ohtani’s 40-homer, 40-steal feat, his odds of attending to 50-50 (due to Dan Szymborski), and another 30-30 and 40-40 (!) candidates https://blogs.fangraphs.com/shohei-ohtani-joins-the-40-40-club-in-gran…

Jay Jaffe: And now, on with the present…

Eli: In a earlier chat you talked about how the Yankees and Gleyber want to maneuver on from one another. Do you assume Gleyber’s profession is salvageable elsewhere? And from the surface is there one thing about how the Yankees develop younger gamers (not named Choose) that appears damaged?

Jay Jaffe: Sure, I believe Torres is salvageable. He’s solely 27 years previous, and he’s proven the power to play at an above-average clip as lately as final 12 months (and he’s been higher for the reason that All-Star break, .273/.354/.406, 117 wRC+).

Jay Jaffe: I don’t assume there’s something notably damning concerning the Yankees’ improvement of younger gamers, even for all of the shrill screeching about Anthony Volpe’s slumps. He’s put up 3.5 WAR this 12 months regardless of his offensive inconsistency, and if he’s merely a plus defender with a position-average bat, that’s nonetheless a reasonably strong end result. Austin Wells has panned out properly on each side of the ball, Ben Rice not a lot (however his inventory was a lot decrease). Peraza’s accidents have gotten in the way in which. Luis Gil and Clarke Schmidt have been good outcomes

Who’s Fabio: Hello Jay – thank for the chat.  What occurs to official stats after yesterday’s Jays – Boston recreation as it’s a continuation of a recreation in June.  It was technically Chad Inexperienced’s third save of the 12 months I believe so does somebody have to regulate all of the stats within the boxscores after?  Does Jimenez’s taking part in time get began in June now?

Jay Jaffe: the stats are credited to the day that the sport originated, which implies they’ll present up in any splits that concerned that date as nicely. It’s a significant headache right here and I do know it’s for B-Ref as nicely. It doesn’t reset a participant’s service clock; it would add one service day if the participant was solely rostered for the continuation however not the origin.

Rob: After a horrific begin to the season, each Pete Crow-Armstrong and Miguel Amaya have been torrid within the second half. Should you’re the Cubs, are you snug going into 2025 with them as starters?

Jay Jaffe: Moreso with PCA than Amaya. As long as Cody Bellinger is a Cub — and I don’t assume it is a adequate platform 12 months to justify exercising the primary of his two opt-outs — the Cubs have various in middle area. They’re weak at catcher, nonetheless, and may actually usher in a greater participant who may serve both as a backup or common. There are lots of these heading free of charge company together with Gary Sanchez and Mr. Two Groups, Danny Jansen

Dancing Dan McGrew: what’s extra particular – Ohtani doing the 50/50 membership or Choose hitting 62 once more?

Jay Jaffe: The previous, because it’s unprecedented and hasn’t been carefully approximated. Choose has hit 62 earlier than; 63 or a number of greater than that isn’t as large a stretch. However jeez, it’s fairly rattling spectacular and I hope we get each feats

Sirras: What’s the most fun play in baseball and why is it the triple?

Jay Jaffe: It’s the inside-the-park dwelling run, which is a supersized triple.

Jason N: As a Padres fan I get to look at Arraez play each night time.  I really like the batting common and bat-to-ball abilities.  But it surely’s the emptiest batting common I’ve ever seen.  I believe each different a part of his recreation (baserunning, protection, energy, and so on.) is under common to horrible. If will get to 3k hits and a pile of batting titles may he get any critical HoF traction?

Jay Jaffe: If he will get to three,000 hits he’ll be a Corridor of Famer. However he gained’t get to three,000 hits as a result of he lacks the secondary abilities that may preserve him round. A 700-OPS DH/infielder doesn’t have many locations to cover as soon as he drops a number of extra factors of OPS.

Thanks for the chat!: What sort of provide do you give Soto if you wish to preserve him on the Yanks?

Jay Jaffe: Manhattan, the Bronx, and Staten Island (Queens belongs to the Mets, Brooklyn isn’t up for grabs).

Jeremy: Apologies if this has already been requested in a current chat however: since Willie Mays handed away, who’s the best residing Corridor of Famer? Mike Schmidt? Rickey Henderson?

Jay Jaffe: The Athletic’s Tyler Kepner and I had a enjoyable textual content trade the place it turned out that my conclusion (Schmidt or Henderson) matched his. We each leaned Schmidt, partly due to his #1 place in JAWS at 3B (Henderson is behind Bonds and Ted Williams in LF). However I believe Albert Pujols will take that spot when he turns into eligible on the 2028 poll.

Porcho Villa: Any encouraging indicators beneath the hood for Torkelson after his thus-far-successful-over-a-small-sample return to the majors?

Jay Jaffe: it’s solely 9 video games however I see the next EV and hard-hit price, double the barrel price as earlier than, higher stroll and strikeout charges, a lot better slash line. It’s an encouraging begin however I wouldn’t get too loopy about it but

Virtually there: Choose is .1 WAR from 50WAR7. However my query is, everybody says, barring a Chris Davis or Ryan Howard scenario, but isn’t it true that these guys had been by no means wherever near pretty much as good at their finest? To me a Choose decline is extra partial seasons fairly than hitting like these guys. Barring absolute catastrophe he’ll get himself to a peak-heavy 60 jaws across the Reggie degree.

Jay Jaffe: Davis and Howard weren’t something near Choose. Each had prodigous energy, however they had been horrible first basemen, with destructive worth on the basepaths as nicely. Every had only one season value no less than 5.0 bWAR. Choose was a plus defender in proper area and is enough sufficient in middle in the intervening time. He has six seasons greater than 5.0 bWAR, and is urgent in the direction of his second of no less than 10.0.

Dirk Funk: The Brewers had an MLB finest -0.48 ERA/FIP differential final 12 months. This 12 months they’re tops once more with a -0.61 differential. So why is Depth Charts projecting a -0.01 differential remainder of season? Isn’t that possibly a bit of over-regressed?

Jay Jaffe: I don’t know the way a lot regression we construct into that however one singe-team year-to-year instance isn’t sufficient to persuade me we’re doing it incorrect.

Dirk Funk: Corbin Burnes Ok%+ has declined from 153 to 135 to 115 to literal common 100 to date this 12 months. Will this push his contract nearer to Nola cash ($172M) than Strasburg money ($245M)?

Jay Jaffe: it may cost a little him some cash however i ponder if it’s a matter of self- and team-preservation. He’s averaging 3.78 pitches per plate look, down from 3.92 final 12 months and 4.09 the 12 months earlier than, and it’s helped him keep an innings-per begin price above 6. Orioles starters are dropping like flies; they will’t afford to lose him so possibly asking him to pitch to contact only a bit extra isn’t the worst thought

Birdfan: Ryne Nelson seems to be good. Velocity up and visually extra assured. Do you assume he has entrance of rotation potential?

Jay Jaffe: No. He’s a command-over-stuff man with a strikeout price simply south of 20% and a penchant for loud contact. He was projected as a fourth starter; possibly he’s a 3rd starter if he does a greater job of suppressing contact however I don’t assume he has the stuff to broaden his ceiling a lot increased.

steve: Is Chris Sale a extra probably HOFer than Gerrit Cole now?

Jay Jaffe: No, as a result of Cole is youthful (although solely by about 18 months)  and extra importantly more healthy. He truly has the sting in some counting stats (however not WAR/JAWS) and already has a Cy Younger. I believe he’s a greater guess.

DBacks Heater: Impressed by Josh Bell’s 8 GIDP in 21 DBacks video games: at what level is taking a backwards Ok  or beginning runners early (and doubtlessly lining right into a DP) preferable when a participant with such an inclination is batting? It’s loopy to complain about squandered DBacks scoring alternatives, however that’s borderline (if not outright) untenable

Jay Jaffe: the strikeouts are essentially the most fascinating of these unpalatable outcomes, however that is who Bell is. Apparently sufficient, he’s simply 2 runs under common in B-Ref’s Double Play Avoidance WAR part (-1 pre- and post-trade apiece).

Sirras: Are there any gamers you get pleasure from watching from an aesthetic standpoint, no matter their on-field contributions?

Jay Jaffe: I at all times love to look at Francisco Lindor play shortstop, and likewise Machado and Arenado at third base (after they’re wholesome). Watching Elly run the bases is at all times a deal with. And I really like nearly every part about Mookie Betts’ recreation.

Zach: So Gavin Lux simply determined to start out swinging more durable and belief his hand-eye, and it turned him into an elite hitter? Please inform me that is sustainable? Is anybody at Fangraphs going to put in writing about him?

Jay Jaffe: if no one else takes up Lux I’ll, one in every of today. Primarily based on what Joe Davis and colleagues have mentioned on air (esp Orel Hershiser), I believe his enchancment has an entire lot to do with lastly with the ability to belief his surgically-repaired proper knee.

Travis: Would it not shock you to be taught Schwellenbach has been higher than Skenes since July 1? I don’t assume there’s been sufficient speak about how good he’s been, particularly contemplating the dearth of expertise. He has virtually as many main league innings as he does minor and school mixed.

Correlations: Do you see the identical being true of Choose/Witt and Ohtani/Lindor MVP instances (primarily, any voter that’s swayed by protection/WAR in a single league would most likely do the identical within the different?) Subsequently, if there are any Witt/Lindor votes, they’d essentially come from the identical ideology/folks (ignoring that the precise voters wont vote for each awards)?

Jay Jaffe: There’s sufficient philosophical variance amongst particular person voters that I don’t assume one league’s end result essentially predict the opposite’s. That mentioned, I believe in both case the snazzy and price counting stats/combos will carry the day, not in contrast to Acuña over Betts final 12 months within the NL.

Steve O: I don’t subscribe to the speculation that the Yankees are uniquely dangerous at growing bats. Creating bats is troublesome. Have a look at the Reds or Pirates. They’ve been rebuilding for years with excessive draft picks, they usually have developed possibly 3 above common bats between each groups? Or what concerning the Dodgers? The Dodgers have actually solely developed Will Smith. Outman, Lux, and so on have regressed. Growth is troublesome.

Jay Jaffe: It does seem that the tide is shifting for Lux, however what’s your window? The Dodgers did draft and develop Bellinger and Verdugo only a couple years earlier than Smith and Lux. They’ve tended to favor pitching (and have achieved nicely, even with the accidents).

Visitor: Do you assume Brenton Doyle’s numbers are replicable subsequent 12 months?

Jay Jaffe: yeah. He’s youngish and his anticipated stats are just about in keeping with his precise ones. Some strong year-to-year enchancment there.

sassy sleuth: have you ever heard any insider discuss/rumblings concerning the decline of the stl cardinals, as a corporation?  i feel the bottom attendance in Busch 3’s historical past goes to be the one factor mentioned in September.

Jay Jaffe: their decline is fairly obvious through the bare eye. I noticed they lately despatched down each Walker and Gorman, who had been two well-regarded prospects. They aren’t producing beginning pitching, and their seemingly infinite provide of hotshot yong outfielders all flip into Dylan Carlson. I don’t know the way Moz retains his job.

Visitor: heh, I didn’t understand there was a baseball participant named Jim Morrison (the doorways had been opened for Bonds to pinch hit for him in that suspended recreation)

Jay Jaffe: Yeah, that was far more thrilling when i used to be 14 and hadn’t determined the Doorways frontman was filled with shit

Jay Jaffe: (which doesn’t imply they didn’t have some nice songs)

Pat: Should you take “Corridor of Famer” out of Jeremy’s query and make it the best residing participant, is your reply Barry Bonds? Statistically it’s, however, undecided account for the HGH.

Jay Jaffe: It’s Bonds.

Santaspirt: Pujols over Schmidt? Profession wRC+ is comparable (slight edge to Schmidt) with out bearing in mind WAR and protection/place (large edge to Schmidt). Or did I learn your response incorrect?

Jay Jaffe: They’re fairly shut in WAR (edge Schmidt by about 5 wins) however the big-picture historic elements — the a number of championships and MVPs, the 700/3,000 combo — I believe tilt the needle in the direction of Pujols.

DBacks Heater: How sustainable are the DBacks because the #1 park adjusted offense? .276/.351/.472 triple slash for everybody since June 1 appears unsustainable, however that comes with 9.2% BB%, 19.3% Ok%, and .311 BABIP; none of that appears too loopy

Jay Jaffe: The large factor that makes that (127 wRC+) robust to take care of is the lack of Marte and the results on his play (if any) when he returns. It’s the regression of the .311 BABIP that may take them down.

BobbyP: Noticed a submit concerning the Reds’ future and match for Soto (and that park!). Do you assume gamers on HoF monitor (Harper, Machado) have a look at private milestones in any respect or the very best are simply searching for a profitable staff after they hit FA?

Jay Jaffe: I believe the most important driver is a mix of cash, chance of success with that staff ,and the desirability of that area given the specifics of background, household, and different considerations, with private milestones most likely fairly far down the checklist.

TomBruno23: Did I see the final pitcher to get to 200 wins final September at Busch Stadium? As in, will it ever occur once more?

Jay Jaffe: I believe Gerrit Cole has a reasonably good shot, and that we’ll get a trickle of others given a confluence of optimistic circumstances (continued well being for Sale, extra seasons like this for Nola/Wheeler)

Richard: Is Invoice White a reputation you count on to see on this 12 months’s Basic Period committee poll? Questioning if he’s given particular consideration since he’s nonetheless round and in his 90’s.

Jay Jaffe: No. White was on final 12 months’s Up to date Period Managers/Executives/Umpires poll, and in order that’s the classification wherein he’ll stay till the subsequent rejiggering. I used to be very bummed that he fell quick, lacking by two votes, as a result of I believed his mixture of contributions made him the one most certified honoree, forward even of Jim Leyland. Right here’s my profile: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2024-contemporary-baseball-era-committee-c…

Jay Jaffe: and right here’s what I mentioned on MLB Community, about his work as a pioneering broadcaster and government. If we’re not recognizing this sort of particular person within the Corridor of Fame, then what’s the Corridor of Fame for?

https://x.com/MLBNow/status/1729587212495241445

NatsFan: How a lot do you purchase into Luis Garcia Jr. going ahead? He’s solely 24 and appears like he’s lastly discovered some consistency

Jay Jaffe: you mentioned it your self: he’s 24. Hitting the ball more durable (and within the air) by way of barrel price if not common EV. Stable beneficial properties

jackal: what does the long run maintain for Dalton Speeding?  Do the Dodgers make him an outfielder?

Jay Jaffe: it looks like they’re going the outfield path, no less than till the top of this season, as a result of they’ve Will Smith in place for lengthy whereas and examine Diego Cartaya as the higher catcher. Trades may shake issues up however they need to actually like Speeding’s bat sufficient to view him this fashion

bringbackpologrounds: Which HOF shortstop does Lindor remind you of most?

Jay Jaffe: Possibly a extra sturdy, switch-hitting Barry Larkin

Visitor: Would you vote for Choose proper now as a corridor of famer contemplating his war7 and fairly good JAWs?

Jay Jaffe: 50 JAWS? yeah, contemplating I voted for Sheffield (49.3) thrice

birds birds birds: Acquired a pair Corridor of Very Good gamers that you simply want had been just a bit higher so you could possibly actually argue they belong within the HOF, simply since you like them?

Jay Jaffe: Fernando Valenzuela could be one in every of them

Jay Jaffe: There are an entire bunch of different starters I believe may be worthy (Cone, Hershiser, Stieb, and Santana, for instance).

Steve O: The final 5ish years was my window. Sorry, I ought to’ve clarified. So Bellinger wouldn’t be in that group. However my level was that it’s not distinctive to the Yankees.

Jay Jaffe: Admire the clarification, thanks

Colton: Oneil Cruz being moved to CF for the final month of the season feels odd to me. My guess is that it’s to see the way it takes to it for subsequent 12 months, however isn’t that what Spring Coaching is for as nicely? Give him the offseason to work on the transition and are available into the spring able to play it. Simply odd timing in my view. Have any ideas on the transfer or timing your self?

Jay Jaffe: it’s an opportunity to present him recreation exercise and on-the-job coaching at a time when there’s no playoff place at stake, then give him the winter and spring to fine-tune.

Jay Jaffe: They need to actually like IKF at shortstop

Dirk Funk: The Brewers are an MLB finest +58 wins versus the Depth Charts over the seven accomplished full seasons within the database. They’ve overwhelmed their FIP in every of these seven seasons to the tune of a -0.21 cumulative differential from 2016-23. It’s not simply the final two years, it’s been occurring for over 1,200 video games now.

Jay Jaffe: that’s nonetheless just one staff (however sure, thanks for digging out the longer-term comparability). I recommend asking Dan concerning the FIP/ERA projection stuff however my hunch is that the 2 are carefully coupled for projection functions.

Travis: Why not a Randy Johnson or Greg Maddux for biggest residing corridor of famer? Do you place pitchers beneath a special class?

Jay Jaffe: I used to be considering extra by way of place gamers however you’re proper, it’s truthful to incorporate the pitchers as nicely, and each are proper in that 100-ish WAR ballpark with Schmidt and Pujols.

NotMyName: Is it possible for the Astros to maintain each Bregman(FA after this season) and Tucker(FA after subsequent season)or will they’ve to choose one?  If just one, who do you prioritize and why?

Jay Jaffe: I’d go Tucker, primarily resulting from age and secondarily as a result of Bregman hasn’t been near what he was in the course of the interval when the Astros had been stealing indicators

MxCokoko: It is a fairly absurd query, however as a Sox fan, what’s your opinion on Andrew Benintendi, and the potential that the subsequent three years for him could maintain? I do know ZiPS initiatives him to be a 1.5ish WAR participant on common for that timeframe, however do you place your religion in these projections (and people type of projections as an entire)?

Jay Jaffe: I believe it was a nasty contract then and it seems to be worse now. I’d take into account chewing a limb off to avoid wasting that type of cash.

Ray Manzarek: You possibly can’t conceal in Brooklyn perpetually.  The Lizard King will discover you.

Jay Jaffe: legit LOL

Jay Jaffe: Manzarek is the very best Door.

NotMyName: Ought to the Astros take into account taking part in Yanier Diaz extra at 1B within the years forward to protect his physique?  His framing is actually graded as rubbish however he can clearly hit.  Looks as if a twin position as a 1B/C/occasional DH may be the very best route for him and the Astros

Jay Jaffe: We’ve seen sufficient swings in framing worth to know that gamers could be skilled to enhance so I wouldn’t shut the door on him catching full-time but. The Astros do want a full-time 1B however that needs to be considered a separate problem.

Smiling Politely: Re: Dodgers not growing hitters, Corey Seager would love a phrase, as would Michael Busch (heck, Luke Raley would possibly even depend). Now with Lux, I need to be optimistic, however he’s nonetheless not beginning in opposition to lefties, so my pleasure has a decrease ceiling than it in any other case would

Jay Jaffe: the timeframe level from Steve O guidelines out Seager, however you’re proper about these different two in that they had been main league prepared however the Dodgers didn’t have room for them

Not Certain: Jay how lengthy do you work the trio of Verlander, Scherzer, and Kershaw preserve pitching?

Jay Jaffe: i guess 2025 would be the finish for no less than one in every of them and doubtless extra

Jay Jaffe: Okay of us, thanks for stopping by! That was enjoyable and I’ll attempt to stretch my streak to 2 weeks in a row subsequent week. Benefit from the lengthy weekend and keep protected.