Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 8/12/22

Jay Jaffe: Howdy people and welcome to the West Coast version of my Friday chat. I’m in San Diego for some household stuff, placing in a full week of labor adopted by per week of principally trip. I went to Wednesday’s Padres sport and wrote about Manny Machado’s rebound (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/in-a-revamped-padres-lineup-manny-machado-…) amid the revamped lineup

Jay Jaffe: Right this moment I wrote about Justin Verlander’s comeback from Tommy John surgical procedure. We haven’t seen a beginning pitcher anyplace close to this age (39) return from TJ and pitch effectively https://t.co/1TZOJFtWLD

Jay Jaffe: Phrase of warning as we do the chat: the wifi in my airbnb is brutal, and if it bogs down this may very well be shorter than standard however we’ll do what we will

Jay Jaffe: and now, on with the present

EuroBall: What are the Yankees ready for to name up Peraza?

Jay Jaffe: I don’t assume it’s within the playing cards this 12 months. Sweeney Murti, who covers the Yankees for WFAN, had a very good thread on this

Jay Jaffe: the quick model boils all the way down to this:

@YankeesWFAN

Oswald Peraza is an excellent prospect, has 2 superb months in a row, however evaluating his total season at AAA to IKF’s w/ NYY: IKF batting .268, Peraza .258. Peraza has much more energy (IKF has 0 HR), however isn’t dominating AAA a lot that he needs to be promoted proper now 4/8

and the truth that the Yankees have larger issues (pitching) and would typically be reluctant to place strain on a prospect in midseason like this.

Jay Jaffe: you don’t have to purchase that — the Yankees org is hardly past criticism — however Sweeney has the connections to convey their considering

MilwaukeeBeerJays: Jay, I really feel like you will have sturdy opinions on mustaches. Who wore it higher: Tom Selleck or Sam Elliott?

Jay Jaffe: Wow, that’s a troublesome name. It’s like asking if Babe Ruth or Ted Williams was the higher hitter

Jay Jaffe: I believe Elliot’s massive mustache is the tougher one to tug off, and fewer translatable, whereas Selleck’s is a really environment friendly and accessible one

CT: I could also be somewhat tardy on this, however re-read your article on Vin a couple of days in the past and simply wished to applaud the complete factor. I’m a bit youthful than you, however grew up in LA watching Vin and he was the soundtrack to my childhood, the voice that taught me to like baseball, and like plenty of people, felt like I misplaced a detailed member of the family when he handed. No query right here, simply wished to thanks for sharing your personal recollections and what Vin meant to you — that was an excellent splicing of his skilled triumphs along with your private ones, among the best and most considerate odes I’ve learn. Sustain the wonderful work. And have a pleasing Friday, wherever you could be

Jay Jaffe: Thanks for the sort phrases. I’m glad the piece resonated with so many individuals – it’s certainly one of my favourite items I’ve ever written, in each variations

diadem: Is it time to surrender on Manea?

Jay Jaffe: quit on in what sense? He may not be an amazing possibility for fantasy proper now however after buying and selling Gore i don’t get the sense the Padres are going to maneuver him out of the rotation for, say, Ryan Weathers or Reiss Knehr, who’ve been placing up Boeing-like ERAs and FIPs in Triple A

Jay Jaffe: Nick Martinez would most likely be extra seemingly, transferring again from the bullpen, however his 4:30 ERA/5.17 FIP as a starter means he’s not a slam dunk to enhance upon Manaea

Aj: Sorry to be a ache about this Jay, however I observed in your July 19 article on who’s making Cooperstown progress that you just stated that Manny Machado had his lowest peak season as 3.6 WAR in 2018. I believe that solely accounts for his Oriole WAR as a result of he additionally had 2.5 WAR with the Dodgers this 12 months. Sorry for bringing it up now; I’m simply an enormous HOF nerd however don’t usually make your chats in time due to faculty.

Jay Jaffe: You’re appropriate, good catch. His lowest peak season is definitely 3.8 bWAR in in 2017. He’s now into peak season territory this 12 months (4.3) and has already gained 0.3 JAWS previously few weeks

Jay Jaffe: Third Base (25th):
49.5profession WAR |40.07yr-peak WAR |44.8JAWS |5.7WAR/162
  Common HOF 3B (out of 15):
    68.4 profession WAR | 43.0 7yr-peak WAR | 55.7 JAWS | 5.1 WAR/162

James: What does Verlander’s subsequent contract appear to be? 2 years/$75 million with a vesting possibility for a 3rd 12 months?

Jay Jaffe: His participant possibility for $25 million simply kicked in as he reached the 130-inning mark; earlier than that he had 2/$66M plus some incentives. I’d guess 2/$70M with an identical incentive construction however perhaps he does a bit higher than that

bosoxforlife: Was the Crimson Sox asking worth to excessive for the quickly declining J.D. Martinez or did all of the groups acknowledge that there isn’t a lot left there?

Jay Jaffe: woof, having some laptop computer tech difficulties, plz stand by

Jay Jaffe: Good query. I don’t know precisely what’s going on with him however .276/.342/.440 (118 wRC+) for a DH doesn’t appear to be it’s gonna generate a blockbuster, and it’s not like Martinez’s Statcast metrics say he’s doing doing that a lot better (.484 xSLG). I don’t assume i heard what the Sox have been asking for, although, however my guess is that consumers discovered it too excessive.

Ke’Bryan Hayes: I’ve had a little bit of an “eh” season. Only one 12 months faraway from final season’s wrist challenge? Swing angle adjustment wanted?

Am I a premium “purchase low” in dynasty leagues or ought to these rostering me commerce me, highlighting my “potential”?

Go, Bucs!

Ke’Bryan

Jay Jaffe: Hayes is having a 94 wRC+ season however with sturdy sufficient protection to take him to 2.7 WAR. He’s nonetheless hitting the ball on the bottom a ton, and I don’t understand how urgently the Pirates are going to deal with that; as long as he can decide it he’s going to be well worth the cash, although his 91.7 mph common exit velo signifies there’s nonetheless plenty of upside for his offense. See Ben Clemens in our Commerce Worth collection https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2022-trade-value-11-to-20/

Should you’re taking part in some sort of fantasy sport based mostly completely on offense, i think about that he doesn’t enable you to a lot now. Should you’re asking me fantasy questions, I think about I don’t enable you to a lot now both

Aj: Hey Jay, I’ve all the time held the assumption that the best fielder at every place ought to be close to locks for the HOF in the event that they have been round even common at different facets, no matter place. This logic is why I help Keith Hernandez as arguably the most important HOF snub and even supported Kaat and Jones (particularly given his further offensive strengths). Do you assume that is an unreasonable stance?

Jay Jaffe: Pitcher fielding is ridiculously overrated; it’s not that it’s unimportant however its worth is already baked right into a pitcher’s run prevention numbers and I don’t see a particular must reward it.

Finest Fielder Ever on the place is a neat hook for a Corridor candidacy however in fact defensive metrics can differ and Gold Glove counts aren’t probably the most dependable indicator both. Ozzie Smith is in Cooperstown as a result of he was an elite fielder with satisfactory offense, whereas Mark Belanger, who IIRC has barely extra defensive worth through B-Ref, is outdoors as a result of he couldn’t hit water if he fell out of a ship. I don’ assume that’s mistaken.

Hernandez has an honest HOF case, however the nontraditional offensive profile mixed with a mid-30s retirement dooms his counting stats and I believe he’s a harder promote to many committee voters. I’d vote for him however his is just not a hill i’ve chosen to die on in relation to my evaluations

The Batman: The Mariners are 7-12 in opposition to the Astros and 54-40 in opposition to everybody else. I’d say it’s simply the way it’s labored out, however the Astros all the time crush them. Clearly the Astros are fairly good, and the Mariners have – save for these previous two years – not been. However do you assume there’s validity to the concept that sure groups personal others? The Dodgers proudly owning the Padres come to thoughts as effectively.

Jay Jaffe: some groups match up very effectively with others and a few… don’t. In 19 video games a season there’s a variety of outcomes doable; 17-2 over the past 19 for Padres-Dodgers appears fairly unlikely however 12-7 is far much less so. We’ve seen that common season collection information aren’t terribly predictive of postseason collection, however we’ve additionally obtained plenty of knowledge that claims the Astros are the higher staff — perhaps not ~100 factors price of successful share higher, however most likely 50 or extra, and thus a 12-7 tilt shouldn’t shock us

Visitor: Would Jeter be a primary poll HOF on another staff? I do know he would have made it in, but it surely might need a been an extended stretch if he spent his complete profession with, say, the Reds.

Jay Jaffe: the dude has 3,465 profession hits and a clear popularity. There’s no staff he might have performed for the place that wouldn’t have been a first-ballot HOFer

Ryan: How was your expertise on the sport on Wednesday? The place does Petco rank on the checklist of MLB stadiums you will have visited?

Jay Jaffe: I’ve now been to Petco 3 instances, 2 as spectator and 1 as press. It’s an amazing ballpark. My solely grievance is that the concession costs are NY-like, although the standard is SO MUCH BETTER that it’s robust to complain

Jay Jaffe: it could be my favourite ballpark, with the caveat that I’ve solely been to ~22-24 (i overlook my rely) and that there are some well-regarded ones like PNC that I’ve by no means been to

Zach: Fangraphs at present has the Dodgers ending with 108 wins. Are you taking the over/below on that?

Jay Jaffe: that projection for 108 wins requires them to play .590 the remainder of the way in which; I believe they will prime that by somewhat bit so i’ll take the over.

JK: are you able to please assist me perceive the importance of fb/hr price?

Jay Jaffe: it’s pale from view a bit now that we’ve Statcast knowledge however the concept is {that a} pitcher’s HR/FB price could be method out of whack relative to the league common and you could get a more true estimate of his expertise by plugging in a league-average price rather than his homer price — that’s what xFIP is.

Visitor: Fangraphs ranked Alex Kiriloff very excessive and he’s underperforming. Are his accidents guilty or is he in any method just like different OF prospects who’ve failed to achieve expectations like Adell/Kelenic?

Jay Jaffe: He’s had an infinite collection of issues together with his proper wrist this 12 months so I believe that’s plenty of it, but additionally his strategy is a multitude and must tighten up.

bosoxforlife: The Braves simply added Strider, Harris and it seems to be like Grissom has what it takes as effectively. I can’t bear in mind a staff including 3 doubtlessly excessive finish influence gamers in such a short while and so long as mustaches has come up Strider’s is strong.

Jay Jaffe: Harris and Strider have been nice for the Braves. Perhaps Grissom can be nice as effectively however Eric has him as a forty five FV prospect, and he has one (1) main league sport below his belt plus 22 at Double-A and none at Triple-A so … I’d urge a little bit of warning simply based mostly on that. Perhaps he seems to be vital assist, however don’t be shocked if there are some rising pains.

Service Time Impingement Syndrome: Who’s a extra productive participant subsequent 12 months: Matt Carpenter or Miguel Sano?

Jay Jaffe: Carpenter, who appears very more likely to be retained by the Yankees. I’ve but to see something that claims Sanó could make the mandatory changes to be greater than a 1-WAR participant

Bobby: When deGrom opts out…what do you assume he’ll get in Free Company?  $45 million per 12 months for 4 or 5 years?

Jay Jaffe: I believe there can be extra warning than that as a consequence of his harm historical past. Wouldn’t shock me if he will get the equal of a Scherzer deal (3/$130M) plus some decrease valuations tacked on to deliver down the AAV. 4/$150, 5/$170M? Perhaps one thing like that

John: Jay, what are your favourite baseball museums moreover the 2 nice ones in Cooperstown and Kansas Metropolis?

Jay Jaffe: I believe the one baseball museum I’ve been to moreover the HOF is the Yogi Berra Musuem, the place i’ve been fortunate sufficient to do occasions with Baseball Prospectus and for my e-book. I’ve nonetheless by no means been to the Negro Leagues one (hopeful subsequent 12 months). Planning to go to the brand new Jackie Robinson Museum in NY earlier than that.

Sammy: Are we going to see Triston Casas this 12 months? That ankle harm appears to have given Bloom a reliable excuse to attend till the 1/3 portion of subsequent season.

Generational Expertise: Variation on a well-liked Fangraphs thought experiment. Put Trout within the Twenties, however this time make him play below Twenties circumstances. No physique armor, no face guard, no batting helmet, no video assessment between at-bats or video games, no fashionable lighting or groundkeeping or local weather management or bodily remedy, first-class air journey changed by lengthy prepare rides in coach, and so on. Maybe he’s nearer to Chick Hafey than the GOAT?

Jay Jaffe: I believe he’d mash. WAAAY extra energy than Hafey

Visitor: What ought to the Jays do with Kikuchi?

Jay Jaffe: Repair him? they’ve signed him via 2024 so that they had higher strive. Wouldn’t shock me if Stripling’s return bumps him out of the rotation

Estevão: With Lamet DFA’d, the Brewers traded Hader for a rental nearer and two okay prospects. they’re prob seeing one thing that I’m not, however the extra I give it some thought, the extra it looks like a really underwhelming return (that’s if Rogers will get proper over there). I all the time anticipate meh packages for relievers, however even on this occasion I’m considerably baffled

Jay Jaffe: a part of it’s that they’re cautious of Hader’s rising price ticket, and that his efficiency is trending within the mistaken path. My solve-for-x guess right here is that they actually like Gasser way more than some and see him as a pitcher with mid-rotation potential greater than back-end potential.  Wrote about it right here, with insights from Eric on the prospects https://www.bostonglobe.com/2022/08/11/sports/triston-casas-worked-his…

Visitor: Jay, are you attempting any west coast ales you’ll be able to’t discover again East?

Jay Jaffe: I haven’t been terribly adventurous right here as a result of I discovered a spot to get Pliny the Elder bottles and … why would I not drink Pliny? Others I’ve had: Alpine Duet, Alesmith .394 (which i really like extra for the idea and the packaging than for the beer itself), Trendy Occasions Orderville Hazy, a couple of totally different choices from Rouleur brewery the place I went with Eric Longenhagen and Invoice Mitchel the opposite night time. I’ve obtained one other week right here, so keep tuned

Yeah Nicely Hiura Towel: Is Soto/Machado/Tatis a scarier threesome within the batter’s field than Betts/Turner/Freeman? (this 12 months, not all-time)

Jay Jaffe: if Tatis is as much as his capabilities… effectively, i’d like to see which a kind of trios seems to be scarier as a result of they each appear superior on paper

John: How do you consider Xander Bogaerts’s worth if you’re Chaim Bloom? On one hand, I get a bit alarmed after I take a look at Baseball Reference’s most comparable checklist and see John Valentin. Then again, Bogaerts is simply so regular and reliably good. Like, this offseason, Carlos Correa could be an alternate –Correa might be the extra expert shortstop and a bit youthful, but it surely looks like he’s gonna miss like ¼ of each season with accidents. Bogaerts is on the market virtually day by day, doing his job. After which as one other issue, you recognize that he can play in Boston. In the event that they let him stroll and signal Correa or Trea Turner, you don’t know for positive that he isn’t going to be just like the Boston model of Carl Crawford.  How would you analyze all of that?

Jay Jaffe: that is price an article down the street however I believe there are two points right here: 1, Story is the higher defensive shortstop (XB’s numbers this 12 months are first rate, which is out of character) and a couple of. Devers is at third and is ~4 years youthful. I wouldn’t be shocked if Bogaerts is sporting one other uniform subsequent 12 months and don’t see the Sox as gamers for Turner or Correa barring a regime change

San Diegoooo: What do you will have deliberate when you’re right here in San Diego?

Jay Jaffe: Subsequent week is usually in regards to the children (mine’s almost 6, her cousin almost 8). Zoo, a couple of museums, seashore, pool, perhaps Legoland. Some native pals to see, and I’m taking my dad, my spouse, and my daughter to Thursday’s Pads-Nationals

Yeah Nicely Hiura Towel: Would Babe Ruth be a primary poll HOF on another staff? I do know he would have made it in, but it surely might need a been an extended stretch if he spent his complete profession with, say, the Reds.

Jay Jaffe: DYING

bosoxforlife: Once you say you will have solely been to 22-24 ballparks are you solely together with main league parks. I attended my first sport at Fenway in 1938 and my current rely is

Jay Jaffe: that’s main league and consists of defunct ones in NY and MIN

Jaem Triver: Together with his 81st RBI, Francisco Lindor simply tied Jose Reyes for the Mets file for RBIs by a shortstop in a season. The earlier holder of the file earlier than Reyes?  Famed slugger Rey Ordonez, with 60 in 1999.

Jay Jaffe: you have been anticipating Bud Harrelson or Doug Flynn?

John: Appears just like the Vogelbach/Naquin/Ruf trio could be a very good transfer in any case.  Their mixed common sturdy platoon wRC+ is 138, or prime 30 within the league.

Jay Jaffe: Mets wanting fairly sharp with these strikes. might need to unmute the 375 Mets followers in my Twitter feed who complained that they didn’t do sufficient

WinTwins0410: Jay, a thought experiment: a “supply” on the HoF simply handed me December’s Up to date Baseball Period participant poll prematurely (once more, it’s a thought experiment; nobody really has shared a poll with me!). The Up to date Baseball Period poll incorporates the next names: Bonds, Clemens, Schilling, Sosa, McGriff, Dwight Evans, Dave Parker, Lou Whitaker. Do I’ve a near correct December poll? Or might you see Lofton or Hershiser sneaking on there? And realistically, are you able to see any names being chosen for the eight-person poll *different* than the ten listed above?

Jay Jaffe: Parker can be on the sooner poll (2025 Traditional) and I don’t assume Sosa can be on this one based mostly on his awful showings on the BBWAA ballots. Hershiser and Lofton would appear to be potentialities; we don’t understand how effectively Orel did final time aside from “fewer than 5 votes” which additionally describes Albert Belle, Joe Carter, and Will Clark. All of them have been at fewer than 5 in 2017 as effectively, as was Mark McGwire. I believe these reheats plus Lofton is the pool for the ultimate two spots although I might need a unique reply if I sat and thought for longer

Jay Jaffe: whoops missed the fragment from this:

bosoxforlife: Is your ballpark checklist solely main league ballparks? Since I attended my first sport at Fenway in 1948 my current rely is 29 main league and 39 minor league parks. I’ve been laid up this season however hope to get to Fredericksburg subsequent 12 months. I’m wondering if anybody on the weblog ever obtained to see video games in The Polo Grounds. Ebbets Discipline, Shibe Park, earlier than it was referred to as Connie Mack Stadium, and Griffith Stadium?

Jay Jaffe: Fenway going again to 1948 may be very cool. I’ve  ahandful of minor league parks below my belt too however must cease to rely.

Jim Edmonds: Arenado or Goldy for NL MVP?

Jay Jaffe: I’d lean Arenado as a result of defensive worth

Visitor: Why isn’t House Runs Robbed stat? Looks as if an easy this to maintain monitor of, and fewer goal than an error.

Jay Jaffe: it’s. The Invoice James Handbooks monitor them going again a number of years. Don’t have mine in entrance of me

Toshi: What sort of contract is required to lock up Julio Rodriguez? Thanks.

Jay Jaffe: I believe you’re wanting on the Tatis deal plus inflation as a tough concept

Visitor: If Carlos Delgado hit 500 homers as an alternative of 473, would he be within the HOF?

Jay Jaffe: fairly presumably and maybe most likely

Visitor: Do you assume Arenado and Machado are sort of linked? Each thought-about to be one of the best third baseman in baseball, relying on who you ask, about the identical age and each on clear HOF trajectories.

Jay Jaffe: had it final time i used to be right here and can virtually definitely have one once more

Jay Jaffe: Okay people, i’m glad the tech glitches didn’t derail me however i’ve reached my pitch rely. Someplace there’s a plate of chilaquiles ready for me. Thanks a lot for stopping by, and keep cool!