Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 7/8/22

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, people! Welcome to a different version of my Friday chats. Apologies that it’s been awhile — journey and holidays have gotten in the best way.

Jay Jaffe: [color: var(–primary-app-color);]

[/color] That’s some critical bling

Jay Jaffe: And now, on with the present

Jacob: Is there any precedent for what’s occurring with Eduardo Rodriguez and the Tigers proper now? I can’t consider another situations in trendy baseball the place a participant requested to be placed on the restricted listing after which went radio silent

Jay Jaffe: Nothing that A pair years in the past Ben Zobrist left the Cubs within the midst of a divorce (marital points are reportedly on the coronary heart of Rodriguez’s absence), however in that case there was no language barrier or worldwide issue concerned. I’m stunned that the Tigers can’t attain Rodriguez via his agent (Mato Sports activities Administration, based on Baseball Reference) however, uh, that isn’t probably the most competent entrance workplace so who is aware of what’s actually occurring?

Dan McGraw: Does Aaron Decide have a pathway to the Corridor?

Jay Jaffe: The expertise is actually there. He’s within the midst of his fifth season that *ought to* wind as much as be price effectively north of 5 WAR, however he’ll should be very productive into his late 30s, and discover a approach to keep on the sphere.

Ken Griffey Sr: What’s the cope with Yelich this 12 months?

Jay Jaffe: .251/.346/.384, 107 wRC+. His second straight 12 months of a .130-ish ISO. Higher batted ball stats than final 12 months (.460 xSLG) however I’ve to marvel if his again points have simply sapped his energy completely.

Massive Joe Davis: Hello Jay, how do you are feeling concerning the information the Alber Pujols and Miguel Cabrera can be on the All-Star recreation although they’re each nowhere close to that stage of participant anymore?

Jay Jaffe: Appears nice. I can’t get labored up about it once they’re not costing anyone a roster spot and are every prone to get 1 PA at most.

Dan McGraw: Does Evan Longoria have a shot on the HOF?

Jay Jaffe: In all probability not, if he does wind up retiring on the finish of this season, which he’s mentioned to be contemplating (see my Giants article above). He wouldn’t make it to 2,000 hits (he has 1,850) and he’s not there on any of the JAWS classes:

Third Base (18th):
57.6profession WAR |41.97yr-peak WAR |49.8JAWS |5.0WAR/162
  Common HOF 3B (out of 15):
    68.4 profession WAR | 43.0 7yr-peak WAR | 55.7 JAWS | 5.1 WAR/162

Beltré, Rolen, Dick Allen Graig Nettles, and Ken Boyer all have a lot, a lot stronger instances.

Pat: What do you consider Tinker-Evers-Likelihood so far as the HOF? I vacillate between “they weren’t that good” & “they had been the three finest place gamers on a staff with a historic run of success & it was a special recreation again then, so you possibly can’t simply take a look at the #’s”.

Jay Jaffe: I’m extra within the latter camp nevertheless it’s a mixture. On the one hand, gamers from the early twentieth century ought to have a wider separation from the pack as a result of the standard of play was a lot decrease, however on the opposite, the Cubs dominated the NL for a major stretch in these days. Tinker was one of the best of them by JAWS, and he’s merely twenty sixth on the place.

Justin: Is Andy Pages shaping as much as be a Joc Pederson/Kyle Schwarber/Rhys Hoskins sort who hits .240 with 30 hrs? Or is Pages anticipated to have a greater hit instrument?

Jay Jaffe: I’m not the prospect man however Eric’s write-up of him intrigues me (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/los-angeles-dodgers-top-51-prospects-2022/). Undoubtedly looks as if he’s received the facility and call points to slot in that camp however he additionally has extra defensive capability. “His velocity underneath means and his defensive instincts give him an opportunity to remain in middle discipline, which might clearly give Pages a bit extra margin for error as a hitter. If he stays in middle, he has a star-level ceiling. If not, then he has a whiff-prone, conventional proper discipline profile pushed by apparent influence energy.”

Harmon Ripkowski: There’s been a number of chatter on whether or not Giancarlo Stanton can attain 500 and even 600 HR.  What about Reggie’s 2597 strikeouts?

Jay Jaffe: Doubt it. Have a look at it this manner: he’s about 74% of the best way to 500 homers (has 368) however solely 63% of the best way to 2,597 strikeouts (he has 1,634). Even given the probability of decline I can’t see him making up the bottom between these two percentages.

Stephen: I went to a few minor league video games in June and was a giant fan of the pitch clock. What are the probabilities it truly makes it to MLB?

Jay Jaffe: I consider it’s when, not if, and doubtless in 2024 if not subsequent 12 months.

Sodo Mojo: With the Mariners attain .500 and now related within the Wild Card image what ought to they do earlier than the useless line to enhance their probabilities?

Jay Jaffe: They’ve gotten a 68 wRC+ and 0.2 WAR from second base (primarily Adam Frazier), which is Substitute Stage Killers territory. And so they want extra pitching, identical to all people else.

Phil: Is it my creativeness, or is there a stage of psychological or emotional evaluation of Manfred occurring that one by no means noticed with Selig? I actually recall Selig being criticized for choices he made or didn’t make, however I don’t keep in mind his character being so totally dissected. Is that this proper, and if that’s the case, does it say extra about Manfred or the state of baseball media/web/fandom?

Jay Jaffe: Selig’s tenure largely preceded the age of Twitter, so I feel there was much less armchair psychology, nevertheless it’s not like he wasn’t a worthy goal of a billion indignant weblog posts for the methods he messed with the sport. Collusion, contraction, PEDs… possibly it was much less private however I do assume it had its share.

Sabey Sabes: How lengthy does Ohtani have to take care of this stage of efficiency to make the HOF?

Jay Jaffe: Ohtani is 5 years into his main league profession. If he’s nonetheless ok to do each at a star stage 5  years from now he’d positively get my vote, and if he’s even ok to advantage doing each of these at any type of stage of competence he’d most likely get it. It is a stage of sustained, mixed efficiency unseen in MLB.

Jay Jaffe: (tweaked the wording of that final sentence)

Visitor: What number of innings extra will Strider get this 12 months?  Is the rule like 30 greater than the earlier excessive?

Jay Jaffe: That’s been a rule of thumb, and it might get Strider to about 125-130 (60-65 extra from this level). My guess is that the Braves can be cautious, get him to about that stage after which transfer him to the bullpen as a result of clearly he’s received the weapons to do late-inning work.

Harmon Ripkowski: The Baltimore Orioles have the eighth most wins within the AL.  Didn’t see that one…

Bobbo: Do you anticipate the Giants to be consumers, sellers, or each on the commerce deadline this 12 months? What % likelihood that they may transfer Rodon versus % likelihood they may commerce for Willson Contreras?

Jay Jaffe: I feel it’s more likely that they’re consumers than sellers, barring a continued slide this month. They’ve underperformed relative to their projections and their peripherals and I anticipate them to rebound from the place they’re atnow.

Farhandrew Zaidman: Attempting to make a degree through hyperbole on this one re the MVP – If the Angels and Yankees swapped Decide for Ohtani straight up, the Angels are a worse staff and the Yankees are not less than nearly as good if not higher, proper?

Jay Jaffe: fascinating thought experiment however I’m undecided this one works in addition to you recommend. The Yankees are for the second very effectively located in beginning pitching however their outfield depth has been stretched to the purpose that Decide has performed extra innings in middle discipline than in proper. Buying and selling Decide for Ohtani straight up doesn’t remedy that; it’s not such as you’re going to play Ohtani or Giancarlo Stanton in middle. You’d want one other commerce (say, Taillon or Montgomery for an outfielder) to make it work.

EVs: “That isn’t probably the most competent entrance workplace.” Kevin Goldstein begs to vary. He says their repute inside different orgs may be very sound.

Jay Jaffe: I didn’t see the place he mentioned that, but when he did, I’d guess we’re basing our impressions on completely different areas. The Tigers rebuild has been a catastrophe up to now; they’ve give you a number of younger expertise however have but to transform it into any on-field success, and proper now their two huge contracts from final winter (Rodriguez and Báez) have turned out poorly

Bruce in 2023: You assume Darick Corridor can proceed with the facility and never damage an excessive amount of with the Avg?

Jay Jaffe: Per week in the past I’d by no means heard of the man. We don’t have a scouting report on him and I haven’t seen one on the different main shops, not that i’ve regarded exhausting (he doesn’t get a capsule within the 2022 BA Handbook or on MLB Pipeline, for exampl). So I’ll go along with “most likely not”

Richard: Hello Jay. What are the probabilities for eventual HOF induction for Tommy John and Luis Tiant? And who will get in first?

Jay Jaffe: Low, notably with the newest Period Committee modifications (see https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-hall-of-fame-shakes-up-its-era-committ…). Perhaps ultimately TJ surgical procedure places John over the road however neither of these guys has gotten a lot traction in current committees and in the event that they’re competing for votes with the likes of Dick Allen and a backlog of Negro Leagues gamers I feel it’s going to be exhausting to vary that.

Smiling Politely: I keep in mind utilizing Mike Brito as a landmark at Dodger Stadium to provide my pal instructions to our seats as a result of everybody might spot him with the hat and the radar gun. He was the Polaris of the park, and it’s exhausting to consider it with out him and Vin in it. In any case — Gavin Lux is quietly approaching a .300 avg/380 OBP. Do you assume his energy creeps up over time? I consider him as a man whose improvement received interrupted by COVID and ppl forgot about.

Jay Jaffe: Perhaps a bit, however I feel that even with the sturdy grades (65 uncooked, 60 recreation from 2020) it’s price noting that he’s solely sustained his energy numbers in hitter-friendly environments. The man’s 24 12 months outdated with a 122 wRC+ and the power to play competent-or-better protection at a number of positions. That needs to be a lot.

TKDC: Has anybody performed extra to extend their corridor of fame probabilities this 12 months than Paul Goldschmidt? Arenado? JoRam?

Jay Jaffe: Good query, offhand I’d say Goldschmidt however that is one thing I’ll most likely take a look at extra intently within the coming weeks

Mets Fan: Is Keith Hernandez a corridor of famer? Looks as if nobody has ever performed first base like he did, and that ought to rely for one thing by itself

Jay Jaffe: From The Cooperstown Casebook (2017):

Jay Jaffe:

Jay Jaffe: First Base (20th):
60.3profession WAR |41.27yr-peak WAR |50.8JAWS |4.7WAR/162
  Common HOF 1B (out of 23):
    65.5 profession WAR | 42.1 7yr-peak WAR | 53.8 JAWS | 4.9 WAR/162

Jay Jaffe: I feel he’s received an affordable case regardless of the non-traditional offensive profile, however him being on the skin doesn’t preserve me mendacity awake at evening the best way the absence of, say, Dick Allen does

Astro: Ideas:
Mets ought to shock everybody by overwhelming Angels with a commerce provide for Shohei + then go to a 6-man rotation the remainder of 2022. He helps enhance the rotation and DH immediately. The Mets can go 6-deep and it might give deGrom/Scherzer some further relaxation forward of October. If Mets can’t re-sign deGrom, they pivot and go all in on resigning Shohei.

Mets ought to commerce JD Davis (plus possibly a decrease ranked prospect) to Detroit for Robbie Grossman and Andrew Chafin to assist with their lefty issues. Grossman needs to be low cost and continues to be doing harm towards lefty pitchers this 12 months. Chafin can be the Mets finest lefty reliever and is a luxurious for Detroit in a misplaced 12 months.

Jay Jaffe: I feel the Mets are a probable touchdown spot for Ohtani sooner or later (most likely not August 2) however good lord the pissing and moaning from Scherzer concerning the Dodgers curbing his utilization to be obtainable in October is why he spurned them to signal with the Mets within the first place. Properly, that and cash.

WHIP attraction: Why are sure gamers lacking from the leaderboard ranks? Off the highest of my head, Ohtani and Spencer Strider are two, however I’ve seen extra omissions.

Jay Jaffe: Beneath the Mininum Innings drop-down you’ll have to make a choice for one thing in addition to “Certified” as a result of they each have fewer than one inning pitched per staff recreation (Ohtani not by a lot)

RTJ: Who’s one of the best SP to not make the corridor of fame because of accidents, and can or not it’s Jacob deGrom?

Jay Jaffe: deGrom (42.4 WAR/39.8 Peak Adj/41.1 S-JAWS) is about 9 factors behind Johan Santana (51.7/45.0/48.3) and each are effectively behind Wes Ferrell (60.1/47.5/57.3), who pitched simply 2,623 innings, with fewer than 600 outdoors of a 10-year stretch.

BettsBellingerCaruso: Kimbrel: Will he carry out to his 2.00 FIP stage or do you assume there’s one thing off w/ him that simply will get him unable to deal w/ a runner on base?

Jay Jaffe: He’s received mechanical points (“too rotational” is a time period each Cubs and Dodgers coaches used) that he can’t appear to shake and that appear to manifest themselves extra when he’s received males on base. I’d assume he might clear them ultimately however right here we’re.

Tony: At this level, if I set the over/underneath at 0.5 for the HOF possibilities of Kimbrel, Chapman, Jansen, which facet are you taking?

Jay Jaffe: Beneath. Very tough 12 months for Kimbrel and Chapman. Jansen was pitching fairly effectively till being sidelined by an irregular heartbeat once more.

On listening to the information about Jansen a pair weeks in the past it occurred to me that folks overlook Atlanta is 1,000 toes above sea stage, which makes it one of many higher-altitude parks, and altitude can affect arrhythmias. I’m wondering if that’s been an element.

Harmon Ripkowski: Hello. My ideas, with all of the questions you’ve gotten about Dave Stieb, is that no twentieth century pitchers aside from Clemens and Schilling will go into the Corridor.  At a guess, possibly John or Tiant, however I’ve little confidence

Jay Jaffe: Past the Massive Insurrectionist Child, I feel the subsequent twentieth century hurler to go in could be from the Negro Leagues. Redding? Donaldson? Perhaps.

brony la russa: the place do the chisox go from right here? do they take a look at Atlanta final 12 months and purchase or do they commerce not less than expiring contracts and ‘reload’ tho not rebuild?

Jay Jaffe: I think they’ll attempt to patch issues up and get again within the race. They’re too gifted to be languishing like this and it’s  not just like the AL Central is a powerhouse division.

All star recreation: Is that this the 12 months Kershaw lastly will get to begin the all star recreation? It might make up for the time they picked Harvey as a result of it was in New York.

Jay Jaffe: Since I made the case for Shohei Othani to begin for the AL, I had in thoughts a tangent on making the case for Kershaw for the NL however selected to not pursue it. To those eyes beginning Kershaw — who’s been actually, actually good when obtainable — makes a number of sense, nevertheless it’s going to be powerful for a supervisor to select towards Gonsolin, who’s 11-0 with a 1.62 ERA AND pitches for the host staff as effectively.

AnotherAnnoyingDodgerFan: What sort of starter (e.g. Ace, #2-3, 4-5) do you assume Tony Gonsolin settles in as long-term?

Jay Jaffe: I don’t assume anyone actually is aware of however 2 or 3 appears attainable proper now, notably as he’s going 6-7 innings routinely lately.

Ben: It appears to be like like Ohtani and Alvarez might each find yourself being reputable MVP candidates in the event that they sustain what they’re doing, particularly if Decide cools off or misses time. I do know Alvarez has performed a great little bit of LF and Ohtani has been much more precious as a SP, however has there ever been a season with 2 extremely precious DHs?

Jay Jaffe: Utilizing bWAR there have been simply 4 seasons with two gamers who made not less than 50% of their appearances as a DH and had been price 5.0 WAR or larger: https://stathead.com/tiny/BzGxn

Jay Jaffe:

Jay Jaffe: All however Hafner Corridor of Famers, wow.

Quarantino Martinez: I used to be inspired by Gallo drawing some walks this week. Does that say extra about my desperation or a possible (delicate) turnaround for him?

Jay Jaffe: i want i knew. I nonetheless assume he will be an All-Star caliber participant however he’s actually scuffling.

Chase: Luis Castillo or Frankie Montas good matches for the Dodgers? One other package deal for Juan Soto attainable on the deadline?

Jay Jaffe: I don’t assume the Dodgers are going to go that huge on the deadline. Undoubtedly not sufficiently big to land Soto

Phil: Did you learn Justin Choi’s piece on consistency? I discovered it fairly fascinating for eager about Jackie Bradley, who’s the streakiest hitter I’ve intently adopted (and certainly one of my favourite gamers, although not a lot for hitting). Final time he was a free agent I used to be surpised on the provide he received. What sort of function do you assume groups will think about him on this time round? Will some staff on the market consider him as an on a regular basis participant? I’d relatively he keep in Boston however that may clearly solely occur for 4th OF cash, if that.

Steve: Forgive me should you’ve answered this beforehand, however have you ever been capable of incorporate sufficient Negro League knowledge into JAWS to find out probably the most obtrusive omission or two?

Jay Jaffe: I’ve not included Negro Leagues knowledge in JAWS, and proper now it makes my head spin to consider the problem of doing so. I feel it’s nice we now have WAR for the choose main Negro Leagues, and price utilizing for sure purposes, however there’s nonetheless a number of obstacles to folding that into JAWS. I additionally assume we now have a reasonably good concept of the highest Negro Leagues candidates outdoors the Corridor and never all of them have instances which might be WAR-driven.

Visitor: Intestine really feel, do you assume the Pirates will produce a HOF stage participant who performs the vast majority of their profession in Pittsburgh in your lifetime?

Jay Jaffe: (consulting actuarial tables)

Jay Jaffe: no.

Scuffy mcgee: who’s probably the most disappointing hitter in baseball proper now and why is it Yoan Moncada

Jay Jaffe: Moncada actually eyeballs as one of many huge disappointments, however the man has already performed two IL stints for indirect and hamstring so I feel it’s protected to imagine that his struggles have one thing to do with these. I’m way more mystified by the ostensibly wholesome Gallo, for instance

Alby: Ohtani query: Historically prospects have been steered to both the mound or batter’s field with the reason that they should deal with one or the opposite to max out at that ability. Is it even attainable for Ohtani to be higher than he’s at both hitting or pitching if he simply targeting one or the opposite?

Jay Jaffe: I think about that if he gave up pitching that his offensive numbers would look extra like final 12 months’s than this one’s, most likely with adequate-or-better outfield protection thrown in, nevertheless it’s actually troublesome to think about him getting significantly better than that. Thoughts-blowing.

Scuffy mcgee: Max muncy, clearly not wholesome or sharp decline?

Jay Jaffe: I’ve to assume that the UCL he tore final October and didn’t have surgical procedure on is not less than partly chargeable for his struggles.

James: What’s your rationalization for the Astros being 2nd in wRC+ however twelfth in runs/recreation? I do know it most likely isn’t Dusty’s fault however I like blaming his batting order.

Jay Jaffe: A few of it’s sequencing and large holes within the lineup at catcher and 1B. In all probability price a more in-depth look sooner or later.

Freshbasil: As an fool (pirates fan) I’m coming round to the concept of buying and selling Reynolds and possibly Bednar now.  With the apparent RP and OF wants of main contenders they’d should obtain an unbelievable return at this level.

Jay Jaffe: Each have a number of membership management years so I’d think about they’d get sturdy returns however as a result of neither is a star ,I don’t assume they’re going to be game-changing returns

Jay Jaffe: Okay people, time for me to wrap up right here. Thanks for stopping by!