Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 6/18/24

Jay Jaffe: Tomorrow I’ll have one thing on the Yankees and Anthony Rizzo’s damaged arm. Accidents have lower into my listing of gamers I used to be planning on checking into; a few of these might need to attend till after I return. We’ll see

MP: Kelenic going to get an article quickly about turning his season round? Only a scorching streak or do you assume a few of this could stick?

Jay Jaffe: Kelenic is 24 years previous, and whereas that’s too younger to write down off, a fast have a look at his splits and tendencies tells me to not get very enthusiastic about two scorching weeks. Sure, he’s hitting the ball more durable however not that onerous, he’s additionally chasing greater than you’d like, and in contrast to final yr, he’s actually struggling in opposition to lefties.

Part 34: Will Fangraphs ever do an Orioles prime prospects listing this yr?

Jay Jaffe: Assuming they don’t secede from Main League Baseball, I’d assume so, however I don’t make the schedule. I think about they’re coming quickly – clearly, it’s a deep system with plenty of fascinating gamers who’re turning into extra related because the July 30 deadline approaches.

Matt VW: Most observers in the beginning of the season felt the Purple Sox can be sellers on the deadline. Are they nonetheless on observe to take action, or will they hold pursuing a wild card berth in an effort to placate an more and more disaffected fan base?

Jay Jaffe: they’re three video games above .500 and a pair of.5 out of the third Wild Card spot, with the next-closest crew 2.5 video games in again of them. I believe in the event that they offered below these circumstances, the ensuing fury from Purple Sox followers would make the Boston tea celebration look tame. Now, in the event that they lose floor, it’s a distinct story, and we’ve acquired six weeks to see what unfolds.

Jay Jaffe: I do assume the Sox have made some first rate progress this yr. The rotation has been a pleasant shock, and a few of the children — Duran, Abreu, Wong particularly — have been spectacular, as was Casas earlier than his harm. They’re shifting in the fitting course.

Francisco Lindor: 70 profession WAR…are you taking the over or the below?

Jay Jaffe: I’ll take the below however not by a lot — I wish to see a bit extra consistency with the bat. He’s dug himself some early holes on the offensive aspect and so his slash traces are unremarkable. however man, he’s a formidable defender. I believe he’s a HOFer within the making.

KC Ache: Ben Rice acquired the decision and appears fairly universally meh on scouting stories.  40s and like a 35-40 grade total. Latest efficiency change any of that?

Jay Jaffe: Examine in tomorrow. Eric hasn’t been wowed by him, particularly on the defensive aspect, and his future in all probability isn’t at catcher (he’s permitting about 2 SB per recreation and has a ridiculously low  CS%). Maybe the bat progresses extra shortly if he sheds the instruments of ignorance.

Jay Jaffe: (I’m hoping to get extra enter from Eric for the Rizzo piece)

Tigers fan: Which present participant do you assume could have the best HOF profession/legacy?  Trout, Ohtani, Decide Soto and so forth.?

Jay Jaffe: I believe all 4 of these guys are going to wind up in Cooperstown with spectacular however very completely different legacies. Trout handed the JAWS common for middle fielders earlier than his twenty seventh birthday (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/mike-trout-is-now-an-average-hall-of-famer…). Ohtani is a two-way participant like we’ve by no means seen earlier than. Decide’s energy is unbelievable, as is Soto’s batting eye. If Ohtani can return to pitching properly whereas nonetheless hitting properly, I believe he’s the reply however I believe that a technique or one other  we’ll be speaking about all of those guys 50 years from now (perhaps not me, as I’ll be 104 years previous).

Oil Can Boyd: As a observe up, he’s one Andrew on of 13 gamers in MLB historical past to have 2,000 Hits, 400 Doubles, 45 Triples, 300 HR, 200 SB.

Oil Can Boyd: Simply observed that Cutch has the identical variety of profession ho.srz as Edgar Martinez. As a Pirates fan, I all the time noticed him as a Corridor of Very Good participant, however squinting, I do see a HOF resume.

Jay Jaffe: whoops, acquired these two out of order .Sorry, no, Andrew McCutchen doesn’t have a robust case for the Corridor neither is he a great comp for Edgar. Edgar owns a profession 147 OPS+ and 68.4 WAR, and that’s factoring in his time at DH. Cutch owns a 127 OPS+ and 49.3 WAR, and it doesn’t appear like he’s gonna get to 55 not to mention 68. It’s a really good profession however he hasn’t actually been an above-average participant persistently in his 30s, and the junk-drawer assortment of stats you cited isn’t going to sway anybody. Who cares about 45 triples?

2016? I Hardly Keep in mind ‘Em: Strictly talking, is it doable that the Cubs roster transferred the “Billy Goat Curse” onto themselves instead of the franchise? Joking apart, exhausting pressed to consider a extra distinguished crew the place the collective core (Bryant, Rizzo, Baez) pale from its peak and/or didn’t dwell as much as its promise so prominently – are there another instances in your thoughts that evaluate?

Jay Jaffe: I can’t consider the same case offhand, which isn’t to say that there aren’t comps. Oddly sufficient I believe one in all my colleagues is contemplating a have a look at these three Cubs’ arcs. You’ll comprehend it whenever you see it.

C-Low: Any motive why you didn’t write concerning the Os dropping Bradish, doubtless for the yr? I’ve seen lots of harm articles however not even a sentence about all of the Orioles pitching accidents.

Jay Jaffe: I wrote concerning the Bradish and Means accidents in February and was centered elsewhere when each went down extra lately, although I anticipated we might cowl it. Apparently it slipped by way of the cracks. I’m certain we’ll verify in on the Orioles’ rotation sooner or later within the not-too-distant future as a result of clearly they’ll be out there for assist.

DJ Tofu: Is it doable to say roughly how a lot WAR a participant can achieve in WAR from a particular PA, in comparison with making an out? e.g. if Participant A at present has 2.0 WAR and in as we speak’s recreation he had 1 HR, 1BB and in addition made 2 outs, is there a fast solution to get his WAR tomorrow? Thanks.

Jay Jaffe: Form of… If you happen to go to our leaderboards web page and select “Stay Stats — Right now” from the Splits dropdown you’ll be able to see the entire hitters’ performances, however the WARs solely go to 1 decimal and that is probably not high-quality sufficient since few gamers improve their WARs even by .1 in a given day. You too can select “Stay Stats — Full Season” and get the operating whole, then evaluate it to the beforehand printed model.

Damaged Bat: Padres and easy methods to get a SP… I skinny Padres have to be burning the midnight oil in attempting to find out easy methods to seize a Tier 1 SP. The long run contracts bind sending a positional mlb participant apart from Kim. However what about Estrada and perhaps a prospect say for Lugo or somebody like that. Does Estrada now have perceived worth?

Jay Jaffe: The Royals are contenders in order that they’re not buying and selling Lugo. Names I’d assume may very well be obtainable would come with Crochet, Flaherty, Severino (if the Mets can’t maintain this surge), Quantrill, perhaps Luzardo. As for the idea of turning Estrada into one thing extra priceless on the deadline, this text might be relevant:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/no-you-cant-trade-your-newfound-reliever-f…

Jay Jaffe: You’re asking about acquiring prepared rotation assist as an alternative of a prospect, so it’s not fairly parallel, however most groups have relievers who may plausibly come out nowhere to go on a 25-inning scorching streak, so no one is giving up big worth for these of another crew.

Looking for Options: Pricey Professor Jaffe, what’s your greatest present thought to assist jumpstart the completely depressing offensive atmosphere within the recreation proper now?

Jay Jaffe: Um, how about banning the shift? Oh, they tried that?? Welp.

I believe the 2 solutions which are most believable are to monkey with the strike zone itself, a time-honored custom (see 1968-69, for instance) and to extra transparently juice up the baseball.  Until you’re ready for an onslaught of house runs, I believe you’d should pair the latter with a rise in fence heights — perhaps to a minimal peak of X toes, or having a sure % of the fences in every ballpark meet that customary — which might hold extra balls in play however make extra-base hits extra frequent.

AL Central Casting: To your information, has anybody analyzed the variety of damaged bats over the course of baseball historical past? Is that this even do-able with out watching each recreation? I assume they have been much less frequent the farther again you go (heavier bats with a distinct form and pitchers didn’t throw as exhausting), however what different elements would there be? Is it simply me or have been there extra damaged bats 10-20 years in the past?

Jay Jaffe: The US Forest Service even acquired in on it!

Jason N: Is Tatis getting again on a HoF observe?

Jay Jaffe: He’s hitting higher than final yr however I don’t assume we will say it’s sufficient to place him again on observe after simply a few months of improved manufacturing. Apart from, the larger subject will probably be whether or not BBWAA voters forgive his PED suspension, which is one thing now we have but to see the mandatory 75% supermajority do for any participant who has been suspended. Till that occurs – and I wouldn’t maintain my breath, because the query now pivots round A-Rod — there isn’t a lot to speak about.

Showbusiness77: Hello Jay … thanks for the chat. Do you assume Brent Rooker’s early season success was a mirage? Do we expect he finds his means out of this horrible stoop to be some X% of the place he was?

Jay Jaffe: Rooker had a pleasant breakout final yr and is definitely forward of that by way of his wRC+, SLG, and Statcast numbers. I wouldn’t surrender on him.

Playing cards fan: I see plenty of concepts about rising SP workloads and decreasing the parade of relievers (finagle DH utilization, make relievers face greater than 3 batters, kill the AAA shuttle and so forth ).  What would you do to extend the function of the SP?

Jay Jaffe: Trim the variety of pitchers on the roster to 12, improve the obligatory variety of batters confronted for a reliever (or an opener, for that matter) to 4 or 5, and impose more durable limits on the quantity of churn that occurs on rosters on the subject of relievers being shuttled to Triple-A and again

RynoatSecond: Jay, with the automated strike zone an inevitability sooner or later, do you assume MLB will take the chance to decrease the efficient strike zone, thereby dis-incentivizing the excessive’s 90 fastball that’s unhittable up there? The sport is faster however I nonetheless don’t assume they’ve fastened the core subject of the sport which is sufficient balls in play.

Jay Jaffe: I believe that even when we get the problem system model of ABS — which appears to be extra doubtless than the every-pitch model as gamers and groups enormously want it — we’ll see some rejiggering of the strike zone, and that might assist handle the problem [late note: The Athletic’s Jayson Stark reports that the ABS system in Triple-A is now only going to be a challenge system]

Philly Steve: Are the 2024 Phillies the most effective crew in trendy historical past? Looks as if a great shot that Harper, Turner, Schwarber, Nola and Wheeler all make it into Cooperstown.

Jay Jaffe: Maintain your pants on, Steve. Harper is more and more more likely to wind up in Cooperstown, and Nola in all probability has the most effective shot of any pitcher this aspect of Gerrit Cole, however Wheeler acquired a late begin and goes to have to stay exceptionally sturdy and efficient, and neither Turner nor Schwarber are on HOF tracks statistically; the latter’s greatest season by bWAR is 3.2, and his next-best is 2.3. Good luck with that.

Jake Rogers Appreciator: Appreciated the Flaherty article! I really feel like his bounceback has gone a bit below the radar given how superior Skubal has been. You talked about on the finish he’s a great commerce or extension candidate, what would you do with him when you have been in cost in Detroit?

Jay Jaffe: Glad you loved the piece. He’s clearly taken to working with the present coaches so I believe if he’s open to an extension I’d attempt to re-sign him.

MH: How astonishing is it that Brandon Belt has not discovered a brand new crew but?

Jay Jaffe: It’s a little bit of a shock however he’s a restricted participant, as a DH who may sometimes play first. Even given final yr’s spectacular wRC+, he didn’t hit the ball tremendously exhausting, and so he was means forward of his Statcast anticipated numbers, plus his strikeout charge spiked, I doubt he hasn’t had *any* gives, however the query of cash and pathway to common enjoying time might have been points that prevented him from signing. Not all people is keen to come back to camp on a minor league deal or, at this stage, spend a month using the buses or in prolonged spring coaching as a way to attempt to justify a roster spot.

Visitor: You jinxed Jo Adell! ; )
It will seem these positive factors from the article have dissipated. Any hope left apart from a change of surroundings and/or a miracle?

Jay Jaffe: Ha! Ouch. Adell appeared to have adjusted however the league adjusted again. Hopefully he can nonetheless name upon that transient success, however I do surprise the place his head have to be at given his current numbers.

Purple sox fan: The preliminary stories had Breslow> Bloom.  How does it look to you now?

Jay Jaffe: Breslow >>> Bloom

Ben: With Means/Bradish out, how most of the beginning pitchers that the Orioles have left are reliable playoff starters. Corbin Burnes, Grayson Rodriguez and???

Jay Jaffe: Cole Irwin might be OK as a fourth starter on a brief leash however they clearly want yet another good pitcher within the combine to go along with these two.

Nick: Good article on Flaherty!                     How do you eat baseball through the season? Do you concentrate on one recreation? Have a number of screens? At all times curious to listen to how the analysts / writers watch the video games

Jay Jaffe: on most nights, if I’m watching I are inclined to default to Yankees or Mets video games within the 7 pm slot and/or Dodgers video games within the 10 pm slot, then flip round if these video games are lopsided or I do know I’m writing about any person on one other crew. Typically which means going again the subsequent day and watching segments of an archived recreation to get a really feel for what was occurring in an enormous inning or with an harm or one thing. It varies.

Reds Enjoyer: Thanks as all the time for the chat Jay. How a lot of the blame for the Cubs season up to now does Jed Hoyer deserve? From the surface wanting in, it seems extra like they’ve been victims of unexpected regression (e.g. Dansby, Alzolay) than precise poor roster development.

Jay Jaffe: A few of the blame has to fall on the gamers. I’m undecided what to make of Swanson and Hoerner struggling so badly. The rotation has been good, and the acquisition of Michael Busch is holding up properly. Bellinger has been unremarkable however he’s hardly the most important downside. I’ve by no means been satisfied about Morel as greater than a stopgap, and the bullpen is a fright. So, a few of the blame has to fall on Hoyer and a few on Counsell as properly, however I don’t assume there’s a single factor you’ll be able to level to and say THIS is the reason for their issues.

Visitor: You assume Walker Buehler can get again heading in the right direction this season?

Jay Jaffe: The rate is there, however the stuff is down and so is the coommand. I believe it’s going to take a while for him to determine what works now versus what labored 2018-22.

Correa: Correa is having a terrific yr and even higher previous few weeks.  He will get misplaced within the shuffle of fantastic AL SS however what are your ideas on his HOF path?

Jay Jaffe: Hoping to write down about him quickly. I nonetheless assume he’s in fine condition HOFwise, particularly if this scorching streak heralds a return to his earlier stage of efficiency

KC Ache: Why are so many groups (it appears, def not the Padres) apprehensive to make strikes early vs deadline?  Flaherty aggravated one thing already and youd assume their want of bats, plus surplus of arms Madden, Manning, Jobe, and so forth. a transfer can be achieved now vs playing on 6 weeks.  Plus, didnt the Tigers do that with Fuller (Fullmer?)), Boyd, after which botch the touchdown with ERod and Lange final yr?

Jay Jaffe: Primarily as a result of no one desires to look dumb by making a commerce too early and feeling like they overspent as consumers or undersold as sellers. So the timing issues — and I believe most groups are going to attend so long as they will earlier than convincing themselves (and possession) that they’re actually out of it. Let’s not overlook that the excessive value of promoting now features a main PR hit that may have multiyear ramifications so far as ticket gross sales and such.

Tjf167: Given what number of “dangerous” decisions are already within the HOF, the place would you set the profession WAR line at for there simply not being an argument for letting guys kn

Jay Jaffe: Apart from catchers, relievers, and mid-career gamers, I don’t assume now we have a lot to debate till a man hits about 50 WAR.

Nate: Is Aaron Decide the man that doubtless breaks by way of the Rule of two,000 (hits) with the BBWAA?  Or do you see anybody else on the market that may get there sooner with the BBWAA?

Jay Jaffe: I believe Andruw Jones or Chase Utley may very well be those to topple the Rule of two,000 lengthy earlier than Decide retires. And in the event that they don’t, Buster Posey will.

Booney: Do you worth all parts of WAR equally (regardless that, definitionally, that is the purpose)? Marcus Semien is making an fascinating late profession HOF case, but even when he will get to 60 or so profession WAR, a part of me wonders how is total resume will probably be seen if he continues to rack up lots of that from the defensive aspect. He’s on tempo to have one other ~6 WAR yr however with a slightly unremarkable .750-ish OPS and a heavy contribution from dWAR

Jay Jaffe: I all the time wish to know a number of defensive measures if doable, even when they’re contradictory. I believe most voters are more durable to persuade than I’m on the subject of defensive worth which is why a shorter profession/increased peak man like Utley, Andruw, or Semien may have a harder time breaking by way of.

Tjf167: The mid 80s Yankees weren’t even in a position to make the playoffs with apex Rickey Henderson, Winfield and Mattingly. Simply the worst waste of a core. Trout/Ohtani up there although.

Jay Jaffe: Trout and Ohtani have by no means been surrounded by sufficient good gamers however yeah these Yankees groups have been definitely disappointing given the entire expertise they squandered.

Visitor: however easy methods to improve SP innings and lower SP accidents

Jay Jaffe: If I knew the reply to this I wouldn’t be chatting right here, alas.

KJ: What’s your go to put for oysters in/round Wellfleet?

Jay Jaffe: Mac’s Shack might be my prime spot for oysters (ran right into a well-known baseball author there final evening!). I had them a pair nights in the past at Winslow Tavern they usually have been tasty however had a bit too many shell fragments for me to take pleasure in them to the max — and in an space the place a lot of the oysters are of the identical selection, the supply issues.

Truro native: love the outer cape shout out!!!!

Jay Jaffe: My favourite Cape restaurant is Blackfish in Truro! Headed there later this week!

glyonstribe: Lindor’s acquired the hype and the contract, however Ramirez is forward in most stats.  Who would you are taking for the remainder of their careers?

Jay Jaffe: Some folks have a tendency to speak about Lindor as if his protection doesn’t matter. It’s not an either-or proposition the place one can simply evaluate his offensive numbers to a slugging third baseman and think about the matter settled. If I’m working with their present contracts I’d slightly have the cheaper Ramirez, certain, since they’re vaguely related in worth, but when I wanted extra protection I may do fairly properly with Lindor at brief.

Visitor: Jay do you assume there will probably be a pull again with sports activities betting partnerships with MLB given the leagues historical past with playing and the problems which have already appeared?

Jay Jaffe: I ****ing hope so.

Jay Jaffe: okay of us, that’s it for me this week — and possibly will probably be as much as my neck in sandcastles and oysters subsequent week. Thanks a lot for stopping by, and keep cool!