Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 5/30/23

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, of us, and welcome to the post-Memorial Day version of my chat. I had a weekend of solo parenting that was stuffed with exercise, together with taking my 6 1/2 yr outdated daughter to a Yankees-Padres recreation on Friday night time, however didn’t see a lot baseball in any other case till final night time once I had Bobby Miller on one gadget and Bryce Miller on the opposite.

Chairman Meow: What are your ideas on  Francisco Alvarez after his scorching begin, future star and even present star?

Jay Jaffe: I’m impressed to date. I imply, who wouldn’t be given his .269/.327/.558 begin via 113 PA?

Jay Jaffe: He’s +4.9 runs in framing, too. Didn’t see that coming

Jay Jaffe: He graded out as a 60 FV prospect, which is All-Star caliber. I haven’t seen something to counsel he received’t be one although I don’t anticipate him to keep up a 142 wRC+

Dylan: This yr in all probability kills Trea Turner’s HOF possibilities proper? Not simply because he actually wanted one other peak season(s), however as a result of this yr makes in extraordinarily unlikely that he’s going to return to elite efficiency at age 30 or 31

Jay Jaffe: It’s a bit early to say that 1/3 of a season kills a man’s HOF possibilities however i already felt like he was behind the wave of youthful shortstops and what we’ve seen to date given his struggles with the fastball doesn’t bode very effectively

Jay Jaffe: momentary delay whereas i unpack my lunch (rooster banh mi). bear with me

Chip: What does a contract this offseason appear like for Harrison Bader? I’d’ve thought he’d be an awesome match for the Yankees, however with him injured but once more I don’t assume a staff with such profound damage points can afford so as to add one other IL legal responsibility to the roster.

Jay Jaffe: Nicely, a complete lot is determined by whether or not he can keep on the sphere, and as we kind this we’re ready to seek out out if his hamstring damage is important sufficient to warrant an IL keep. he’s an elite defender although, and has a ton of worth even when he’s not enjoying 150. ZiPS has him projected for about 10 WAR over the following three seasons in about 110 video games a yr. I’d anticipate one thing north of $20M AAV, however perhaps shorter time period with some bells and whistles (vesting/membership possibility).

Jay Jaffe: 4/$80ish perhaps?

James: What’s the most suitable choice for San Diego shifting ahead?

Jay Jaffe: Scoring extra runs and/or permitting fewer

James: What’s the most suitable choice for San Diego shifting ahead? 1.) Fireplace Preller and rent a brand new GM 2.) Preserve Preller however add a analytical POBO (Sterns, Epstein) 3.) Preserve Preller on the helm and preserve the course

Jay Jaffe: I’ve a troublesome time imagining that Seidler is spending all of this cash with out giving Preller an extended runway than a yr to supply outcomes.

Jay Jaffe: As as to if an Epstein or Stearns would are available in above, given the present commitments and form of the farm system – is that their greatest match?  I don’t know however I do assume it’s less complicated than simply “let’s add this massive identify free agent” which is, uh, how the Padres obtained up to now a minimum of partly.

Dallas: i simply don’t see the offensive capability with Ke’Bryan Hayes. His swing doesn’t barrel something up constantly, and you can not run a 3B on a regular basis who can’t carry out above league common. Am I overly harsh or is it time to begin to fear?

Jay Jaffe: His offense has been a disappointment thus far, 67 wRC+ ugh. That stated, he’s  averaging 92.7 mph exit velo and 46.9% hard-hit price, with a career-high 14.3 diploma launch angle. He’s obtained a .261 xBA and .410 xSLG which is greater than playable with that glove.

Jay Jaffe: Take into account final yr he had a .303 xwOBA and nonetheless 3.0 WAR, this yr he’s at .318 xwOBA. I wouldn’t quit hope but.

Joe: Are you guys staff Commerce Jonathan India?

Jay Jaffe: I’m not. I’m staff Discover Your Good Younger Gamers Positions. Attempt him within the OF or 3B and Senzel within the OF.

Jay Jaffe: I do know there are questions on his arm, however i feel you need to attempt one thing. The Reds are rightly ridiculed for tearing issues aside too shortly, buying and selling him will likely be seen as only one extra instance of that.

Yo-Yo: Wainwright has been horrible this season, and he was barely hitting 85 mph (not an exaggeration) on the finish of his final begin. St. Louis is miraculously nonetheless within the playoff hunt, so each begin counts. Groups are beginning to transfer on from ineffective older starters (Kluber). How does STL weigh his run at 200 wins versus a playoff run?

Jay Jaffe: eventually they should go along with their 5 greatest. LIberatore is a kind of 5, and it looks as if Matz has had an extended sufficient runway to point out that he isn’t. I think about what’s going to occur is that Matz goes to the bullpen whereas Wainwright will get a minimum of a couple of extra begins, and that the 2 might swap locations if the performances nonetheless advantage it.

KCbbq: Has Oakland squeezed all the juice out of Rooker and now we’re left with only a withered fruit? What are you anticipating from him remainder of season?

Jay Jaffe: he’s nonetheless averaged 92 mph exit velo with a ten% barrel price and 50% hard-hit price in Might even whereas placing up only a 78 wRC+. I wouldn’t quit on that in any respect, however I’d hope he can reduce the strkeouts a bit from this month’s 33%

Jay Jaffe: his ROS depth charts projection is .223/.322/.428. I believe he can surpass that if he retains pounding the ball as he has

Sweaty Vedder: May heavier, bigger pitchers, like Alex Manoah, be effected negatively by the brand new pitch clock?  Possibly the sport simply strikes too quick for sure physique sorts

Jay Jaffe: I’m presently studying Jack Curry’s guide, The 1998 Yankees: The Inside Story of the Best Baseball Workforce Ever, and really feel just like the criticisms of David Wells have been comparable. Any time a big pitcher struggles, any individual comes again criticize his conditioning. It looks as if too straightforward a crutch to lean on

Jay Jaffe: from what I’ve learn I think his points are extra mechanical, he’s not getting the strikes the place he used to and pitching from behind within the rely extra typically. May these mechanical issues be brought on by fatigue? Possibly. May that fatigue be clock-related? Possibly. However I don’t assume it’s assured.

Brandon: How far more work does JT Realmuto should do to enter the HOF realm. His WAR is just a little mild however everybody else is miles behind him

Jay Jaffe: Good query. I haven’t thought of it a ton however he’s clearly the top of the category lately with the potential exception of Will Smith. I see two HOF-caliber seasons and three different good ones; i feel he’s gonna want a couple of extra of the previous.

Jay Jaffe: which isn’t straightforward as he heads into his mid-30s

Hamandcheese: How do you assume the Guardians rotation will shake out ROS with Civale and McKenzie getting back from accidents? Each rookies of their rotation have appeared sharp to date.

Jay Jaffe: They’ve three rookies within the rotation in Allen, Bibbee, and Gaddis, the final of whom has a 5.34 ERA and 4.97 FIP. He’s seemingly the primary man down. As to who’s second… if I’ve discovered something it’s you could’t venture too far forward relating to rotations. Anyone is at all times sore sufficient to go on the IL when any individual wants a roster spot.

Eldridge Cleaver: What’s incorrect with Shane Bieber?  His velocity final yr was already alarmingly low however his FIP was 2.87.  His velocity is principally the identical this yr and his FIP is 4.03.  All I can see is a change in his pitch combine the place he’s throwing his cutter much more this yr and for some cause the pitch is far worse than it was final yr.

Jay Jaffe: i’m not precisely certain however the numbers say the cutter is getting hammered (.339 AVG/.536 SLG) even whereas producing extra whiffs. Its utilization has principally tripled in opposition to righties however they’re not those doing the harm, whereas lefties are killing it regardless of the same utilization price from final yr. price a better look sooner or later

Freddie Freeman: Am I a Corridor of Famer?

Jay Jaffe: Not but however I do consider you’re in your manner

Alby: With the state of pitching at current, how can anybody severely assume enlargement can be a good suggestion?

Jay Jaffe: Possibly what you’re seeing is proof that there are too many good hitters!

Jay Jaffe: you may at all times take a look at gamers who’re struggling and use that as a justifucation that there aren’t sufficient MLB caliber gamers to go round when in actual fact it’s now been 25 years for the reason that majors final expanded and the participant pool has solely continued to develop.

Purple Ass Purple Sock: Now that he appears to have turned a nook health-wise, is 3,000 Ks in play for Chris Sale? Overlook the HoF, and fairly frankly, overlook that he appears to have the final character and likability of lukewarm canine poo, simply curious what his possibilities of hitting that mark appear like.

Jay Jaffe: he wants 871 extra strikeouts to get to three,000. He’s obtained 65 this yr and 122 for the reason that finish of 2019. I don’t see sufficient progress but to counsel he could make it.

Cole: Is it too early to contemplate Grayson Rogriguez, Gunnar Henderson, and Jordan Walker post-hype?

Jay Jaffe: sure

Pkpkpk: Let’s say the A’s truly do handle to lose 125 video games. What, if any, penalties do you assume they’ll face, from the league or in any other case? I’ve to think about the brass in Vegas will see precisely what they’re doing and do some laborious analysis of funding a stadium. If that occurs, what do they do? Keep in Oakland? Discover some other place in lower than a yr? I can see this backfiring on them in a catastrophic manner.

Jay Jaffe: haha penalties?

Jay Jaffe: folks will ridicule the staff however apart from that no person goes to face any penalties.

Jay Jaffe: and nothing of their efficiency goes to have an effect on whether or not or not they get the funding they need/must justify a transfer. that’s primarily a matter of native politics

Anon21: Anticipating Michael Soroka to stay within the Braves’ rotation if he stays wholesome? His first begin was not wonderful, however seems to be just like the stuff is about the identical. Management was a problem (2 BB, 2 HBP).

Jay Jaffe: I’m certain he’ll get extra reps if he’s wholesome given the present state of issues.

Jay Jaffe: That stated, Stuff+ was not an enormous fan, liking his slider and his command however not a lot else.

Jay Jaffe:

Jay Jaffe: he did get a great swinging strike price and chase price, so I’d hardly quit hope.

Travis: Popped this one in too late final week, however nonetheless curious:
What sort of remainder of profession does Marcus Semien must should generate any type of HoF case? He looks as if a major Corridor of Very Good kind participant, with a late begin and only some seasons (thus far) at a extremely elite stage, however he’s obtained the heavy lifting finished on peak scores, and is (to date) having one other excessive performing yr, it appears.

(fwiw, given the variety of qualifiers within the query, I believe he’s a major candidate for a couple of token/courtesy votes when the day comes, however I’ve been incorrect earlier than.)

Jay Jaffe: I see three HOF-caliber seasons — which occur to be his final three full ones (2019-22 ex ’20) —  and a few first rate ones. He’s already at 3.2 bWAR this yr so perhaps that’s gonna be one other HOF-caliber one. He’s obtained numerous low-hanging fruit in his peak rating. 4 5-WAR seasons would take him to one thing like 57.7/42.3/50.0 which begins to look fairly attention-grabbing

Cinci: 3B Elly 2B India 1B Steer SS McLain DH CES LF Senzel… there’s room

Jay Jaffe: not unreasonable.

Invoice: What do you consider the massive soar in Trout’s Zswing during the last couple years? Do you assume he’s gone too far within the incorrect course?

Jay Jaffe: Good query. He’s seeing extra strikes to start with, which suggests extra pitchers assume they’ll beat him within the zone, and at 31 together with his mileage and rising swinging strike price, they might be proper. I wouldn’t panic simply but, however sooner or later he’s going to be a 140-150 wRC+ man as an alternative of a 170-180 wRC+ man

bork: proposed commerce: tim anderson to LAD for cartaya, stone, and pepiot. who says no?

Jay Jaffe: i don’t see the Dodgers giving up that a lot for a rental given the state of their rotation and the truth that they traded Ruiz lower than two years in the past.

Pops: What do you assume is the chance of Dave Parker ever making the Corridor?

Jay Jaffe: low

Jay Jaffe: His manufacturing numbers from the Nineteen Eighties are fairly empty,  excessive RBI/low OBP/minimal to detrimental defensive worth

Jay Jaffe: he simply wasn’t nice for that lengthy

Liz: Kenley Jansen has an enormous body and has been simply high quality with the pitch clock, and I believe it’s type of absurd to counsel that heavier guys are naturally going to battle with tempo greater than others simply because we culturally affiliate fats our bodies with poor health.

Jay Jaffe: effectively put. it’s price noting that Kenley has labored his ass off to regulate to his personal stuff and the sport’s calls for, each bodily and mentally. Manoah, as a man who hasn’t been within the league that lengthy, hasn’t proven that but however I do consider sooner or later he’ll determine it out.

Mr. Burrito: Dumb query: If the Dodgers provided Michael Bush and, say, a non top-100 prospect to the White Sox, might they pry away Dylan Stop? Appears like a stable starter to offset the numerous query marks within the rotation is the massive piece for this yr’s Dodgers…

Jay Jaffe: I don’t assume that may be a large enough bundle, nor does Busch, together with his lack of a defensive place, match the White Sox’s wants very effectively

Jay Jaffe: now, perhaps a Busch/Stone bundle might be the start line for a bigger swap involving Stop and Anderson

Andrew: The place would you set Altuve’s HoF odds at present? He’s about to surpass 2,000 hits, 200 HR and 50 fWAR in his age-33 season, coming off perhaps his greatest offensive season. The 2017 factor is there too, however I’m unsure how a lot that may impression him contemplating that (1) voting will in all probability begin about 10 years from now, (2) neither his nor the Astros success modified when the sign-stealing stopped, and (3) he didn’t actually take part in the entire thing anyway.

Jay Jaffe: In all probability higher than 50/50 given the resumé and the truth that all the different up to date second basemen seem to have fallen brief (although I’ll stump for Utley)

Sonny: Had an opportunity to take a look at a southern league recreation this weekend and it’s been some time since I used to be that motivated for a foul ball. Very serious about how noticeable the pretack’d ball feels in hand. Has anybody written about participant reactions to it but?

Jay Jaffe: Not that i’ve seen.

D: What did you make of Invoice James’s flip-out over Thurman Munson on Twitter? Placing apart the terrible joke, is there a case to made that Munson was not a superb participant/borderline HOF?

Jay Jaffe: the tastelessness of the joke apart, I actually don’t get James’ intransigence on Munson. The man was an MVP, perennial All-Star, multi-Gold Glove winner on a number of pennant winners. His peak is clearly HOF-caliber to those eyes, he simply made the error of dying earlier than his profession totals learn as such, however to counsel that he’s not even worthy of debate strikes me as odd.

No matter. I don’t actually need to get sucked right into a debate about Munson until any individual can present me good *proof* that he’s considerably worse than the numbers counsel. Till then, I’ve stated my piece  https://blogs.fangraphs.com/despite-early-demise-thurman-munson-is-hal…

KM: In addition to Derek Jeter, who’s somebody that involves thoughts who makes/made unimaginable defensive performs, however actually isn’t all that nice defensively general?

Jay Jaffe: I used to be shocked that Gio Urshela’s defensive metrics weren’t very spectacular when he was in NY, however he was merely average-ish, not one million miles within the crimson.

Zach Assault: Zach Mckinstry appears to be a distinct participant, statcast web page filled with crimson….is he a should seize (I do know context issues, however all issues equal?) Take him over Vargas or Lane Thomas?

Jay Jaffe: he’s hitting the ball laborious and but his numbers are behind his x-stats, so yeah, i feel he’s in all probability price having if you may get him

seth r: notably no Votto on that Reds depth chart…

Jay Jaffe: He’s in his closing yr underneath contract and hasn’t began a rehab task but. Supposedly feeling higher and taking reside BP. ONce he comes again, it shouldn’t be laborious to suit him right into a lineup the place the common DH (Stephenson) has an 82 wRC+. And anyway, that’s a short-term drawback in comparison with having all these kids to play.

Vince: Do you assume Mark Buehrle ever will get in to the HOF? Beloved him when he performed. Excellent recreation, no-no, WS win, 200-inning streak. He was good, man! Simply excellent, although?

Jay Jaffe: I want I noticed sufficient to compel me to incorporate him on my HOF poll however to me he nonetheless seems to be brief. Many of the voters see it that manner as effectively, and there are a complete lot extra dominant pitchers exterior the Corridor who’ve extra convincing circumstances, IMO

McGraw45: What’s up with Tatis? Much less Okay’s, however decrease laborious hit % and decrease anticipated stats. Is he nonetheless gaining power or did he change his method or each/neither?

Jay Jaffe: Undecided but however to date he’s undoubtedly a methods off so far as how laborious he’s hitting the ball, not shocking given the accidents

Logical change: It’s not likely an enormous deal however I’m at all times bothered when a house plate umpire makes the decision on a test swing.  He could also be sure it was a swing, however what’s the hurt in checking with the 1B/3B umpire as an alternative simply to be 100% certain?  It’s solely an extra 5 seconds perhaps.  It’s kinda like having the 2B umpire name a HR ball down the road honest or foul.  Let’s see a rule change for this!  Love your work, rock on.

Jay Jaffe: thanks. Agree with you on the test swing, appears price getting some assist

Nolan: Are you able to clarify why so many individuals appear to take Adley over Murphy? Simply noticed a query posted by silly baseball on who one of the best catcher in baseball will likely be for the remainder of the season between Murphy/Adley/Smith/Realmuto and the ballot was overwhelmingly in help of Adley. The stats favor Murphy by quite a bit truly.

Jay Jaffe: I believe it’s as a result of Murphy is perceived as being effectively over his head, performance-wise, and people folks might have some extent. He’s obtained a 160 wRC+ now, was at 122 final yr and 100 the yr earlier than, tasks for 122 ROS. Adley has a 133 now, identical as final yr, tasks for 129 wRC+ ROS, and is 3 years youthful.

The counter to that’s that Murphy is placing up nice numbers and but remains to be effectively behind his x-stats (.611 SLG). So is Adley however only a .485 xSLG. Anyway, I don’t assume it’s an unreasonable argument to make to assume that the previous #1 prospect goes to be higher than the good-and-suddenly nice man as a result of regression does occur.

Jay Jaffe: Man, get a grip in the event you assume 1/3 of a man’s age-22 season is sufficient to label him a bust

Justin: What is going to Jarred Kelenic’s triple slash appear like on the finish of the yr? Has his begin modified your long run outlook on him?

Jay Jaffe: Living proof, i assumed it was manner too early to dismiss Kelenic as a bust (return and see for your self) and right here he’s, raking. He’s a bit forward of his x-stats however I don’t assume i’d wager on an excessive amount of regression from his present line. .270/.335/.515?

Jay Jaffe: okay of us, so many good questions within the queue — numerous Cubs q’s that I’d like to present some thought to, so perhaps I’ll write about them quickly — however I can’t get to all of them. Thanks a lot for stopping by at present! We’ll do it once more subsequent week.