Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 4/16/24

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, of us, and welcome to my Tuesday chat. Apologies for the technical glitch by way of the pre-chat queue however we ought to be up and operating.

Jay Jaffe: Pouring one out for Whitey Herzog, the Corridor of Fame supervisor finest recognized for piloting the Cardinals to the 1982 championship and two different pennants.

Jay Jaffe: And pouring one other one out for Carl Erskine, a real mensch who not solely helped the Dodgers to 5 pennants and their 1955 championship — and threw two no-hitters as nicely — however turned “a fierce champion of human rights, racial equality and, when his late son Jimmy was born with Down syndrome, turned immersed in preventing for folks with particular wants.”

The Corridor of Fame honored Erskine with the Buck O’Neill Lifetime Achievement Award final summer season https://www.indystar.com/story/sports/2024/04/16/indianas-carl-erskine…

WinTwins0410: Jay, I hate to “bear in mind some guys” an excessive amount of to begin a chat, however it looks as if we’ve misplaced lots of attention-grabbing baseball guys these days — Ken Holtzman, Whitey Herzog, Carl Erskine, Fritz Peterson, Jerry Grote and even Pat Zachry.  Curious for those who plan to do a full-on article about Whitey.  I’m hoping you’ll!

Jay Jaffe: Forgot about Holtzman, who was an enormous a part of the A’s three straight championships and holds the report for many wins by a Jewish pitcher (174).

Jay Jaffe: I’m excited about whether or not I can pull off a Herzog tribute in a well timed vogue.

bringbackpologrounds: Do you see Altuve parlaying his excellent begin into severe MVP competition?

Jay Jaffe: Clearly he received’t keep that. However can he contend for an MVP award at age 33? Shade me skeptical. Clearly he stays a superb hitter, however he’s had a tough time staying wholesome, with simply 90 video games final 12 months and 141 the 12 months earlier than. Most of his time missed was because of the damaged thumb he sustained within the World Baseball Traditional, however he hasn’t performed 150 video games in a season since 2017. It might definitely be one thing to see if he did, although!

Volpe: Not at THIS degree, however, the way in which folks thought Volpe’s rookie 12 months was going to be his offensive expertise endlessly is fairly shocking. Not everyone seems to be his new RF teammate.

Jay Jaffe: Baseball followers are typically impatient, and one byproduct of the Prospect Industrial Complicated is that highly-touted younger gamers who don’t ship instantly trigger some significantly irrational reactions. That Volpe truly had a fairly respectable rookie season at age 21 was camouflaged by his .209 AVG

Jay Jaffe: He’s hitting .373/.464/.542 however apparently sufficient has solely barreled two balls (4%). I do know Esteban Rivera goes to take a better search for us quickly.

Phil: Guys like Tyler O’Neill fascinate me. Former high prospect beneath 30 with a six-win season up to now ought to be able to producing one other related, if wholesome. As a Pink Sox fan watching him play, I don’t perceive how he bought a repute as a non-hustler, if that even is his repute. Assuming his newest damage actually is just some brow stitches, how shocked would you actually be if he outdoes his 2021 season?

Jay Jaffe: I assumed Oliver Marmol calling out O’Neill in April final 12 months throughout a moist recreation for not operating onerous was one of the vital bush league acts i’ve seen from a significant league supervisor in awhile

Jay Jaffe: Man has a major historical past of leg accidents, is operating on a moist observe, and was thrown out by Acuña? Perhaps you’re taking him apart and tackle your notion of the problem, however embarrassing a participant publicly like that, woof.

Jay Jaffe: Anyway, as i famous final week earlier than he bought banged up once more (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/mookie-who-tyler-oneill-is-the-hottest-hit…), O’Neill is off to a powerful begin, hitting the ball a lot tougher than in 2022 or ’23, and I think the well being of his legs has rather a lot to do with it. Undecided if he can match 2021 but when he can keep wholesome he’ll be the most efficient Sox outfielder since Mookie.

Idiotic Failson: Is Goldy cooked?

Jay Jaffe: Hmm. He’s not hitting the ball onerous, is chasing extra, and has much more swing-and-miss than normal. 28.6% strikeout charge, 2.4% barrel charge, 54 wRC+. He did decline notably from 2022 to ’23, however I believe it’s extra seemingly he’s coping with one thing injury- or mechanics-related than it s an much more dramatic fall-off, although he’s 36.

Bardo Invoice: Suppose Xander Bogaerts has like 9 extra 3-WAR seasons in a row (with some cheap year-to-year variation) earlier than tailing off within the final couple years of his profession. Ends his profession with one thing like 65 WAR, ekes out 3000 hits. But it surely’s additionally like a 112 wRC+ for his profession with mediocre protection. Is that (and may or not it’s) a corridor of fame profession?

Jay Jaffe: Eh, most likely. Proper now he’s at 39.4/34.7/37.1 for profession/peak/JAWS. Assuming that peak rating stays untouched and he will get to 65.3 WAR, that’s a 50 JAWS, which wouldn’t be a slam dunk by itself however when mixed with 3,000 hits is fairly clearly gonna get a man into Cooperstown.

Matt VW: Along with his season ending damage, Trevor Story will submit 3.5 bWAR within the first three years of his Pink Sox contract. Xander Bogaerts posted 10.3 bWAR over the primary two years of the identical span, with almost a full season so as to add on.

I do know nobody tries to get damage, however this casts the Pink Sox’s dedication to half with Bogaerts in a fairly dangerous mild. How a lot of this was foreseeable and the way a lot simply dangerous luck?

Jay Jaffe: The Pink Sox have made some fairly doubtful decisions with regards to seeing a few of their homegrown stars off lately— Lester, Mookie, Bogaerts — however hey, John Henry’s gotta be proud of that payroll flexibility, proper?

Jay Jaffe: Given the Coors Discipline issue and his elbow and shoulder woes it was all the time a bit tough to get a really feel for what Story’s offense would appear to be as soon as he modified groups, however a few of that is simply dangerous luck. Then once more, there’s a purpose he value $140M to Bogaerts’ $280M, so at the very least a few of this was fairly obvious that they have been taking a step down.

seth r: pitchers stuff++ arms fall off greater than ever and groups don’t thoughts grinding 22y/o onerous throwers into mud, how does MLBPA shield pitchers who don’t make it to free company? pressure a unique arb course of for pitchers to get them paid earlier?

Jay Jaffe: I want I knew. Over half the union is pitchers, and so lots of them are prepared to chase velocity within the face of damage threat — whether or not it’s to hold onto an enormous league bullpen spot or to internet that pre-free company extension that acts as a security internet — that I’m undecided you can get them to agree on a tack to absorb negotiations. The gamers actually do need to prioritize getting paid earlier of their careers on the whole, and the state of affairs with pitching accidents solely calls consideration to it much more. Not everyone may be Spencer Strider, netting a record-setting extension that assured generational wealth only a 12 months and alter into his large league profession.

the one who asks the lunch query: What’s for lunch?

Jay Jaffe: A reuben sandwich, sadly not as scorching because it ought to have been as a result of the motive force appeared to get misplaced in my neighborhood, winding up a couple of blocks south and 10-Quarter-hour later than anticipated.

Kevin: I just lately learn some thought-about baseball to have been Jackie Robinson’s fourth finest sport. Have you ever been to the Jackie Robinson Museum, and if that’s the case, what did you consider it?

Jay Jaffe: I do marvel about Robinson in different sports activities; at UCLA he lettered in basketball, soccer, and observe in addition to baseball. His older brother Mack received a Gold Medal as a part of Jesse Owens’ relay crew in 1936, and Jackie received an NCAA championship within the lengthy leap. I do discover it onerous to consider baseball was the least of these sports activities however he was clearly fairly particular as an athlete.

I visited the Jackie Robinson Museum in late 2022 and loved it. It’s not very large, so simply doable in about 90 minutes or so, however it was very nicely executed. A bit text-heavy for teenagers, however price bringing them if that’s what you take note of.

https://twitter.com/jay_jaffe/status/1596585827353534464

Lance Lynn HR Machine: Did the Royals themselves suppose their off seasons strikes and participant growth could be this a lot of a hit? Or do you suppose this season is even already exceeding their finest expectations?

Jay Jaffe: I favored the Lugo and Wacha strikes however I doubt even the Royals noticed these as transformative. And let’s not overlook that early information may be notably distorted by high quality of competitors. The Royals are 5-0 in opposition to the White Sox, 6-6 in opposition to everyone else; additionally they went 3-0 in opposition to an Astros crew whose rotation is fairly depleted. They could be the Royals crew that turns the nook, and I’m notably impressed with Bobby Witt Jr. thus far, however let’s see the place this goes.

Jason: Are the Dodgers truly giving to offer Pages a respectable probability or is he going to get the final season Michael Busch therapy?

Jay Jaffe: it’s not clear but. That is primarily as a fill-in for Heyward’s roster spot, which successfully places him within the quick half of a platoon with Outman, although it’s extra crowded than that, with the 2 Hernandezes and Chris Taylor additionally on the market. If he hits, he’ll stick round however I think it is a short-term factor for now

Ske: The NLC has had a enjoyable begin to the 12 months. After 10% of the season, which crew do you suppose has one of the best probability to tug away?

Jay Jaffe: I don’t suppose anybody’s going to tug away. We had the 5 groups forecast for one thing like 77.5-83.5 wins, and no one’s 10-5 or 11-6 begin upends that; quite the opposite, the vary is now 80.6 to 84.1. That is going to be a summer-long grind.

TomBruno23: Wanting on the energetic leaders in W and undecided anybody will get to 175 to move Holtzman no matter their faith.

Jay Jaffe: Perhaps a few of them must go to synagogue extra typically

Jay Jaffe: Gerrit Cole has 145 wins, and I believe I really feel comfy taking the “over” on 30 remaining wins, if nothing else.

Visitor: How do you deal with a high prospect like Jackson Holliday who begins off so poorly?  Ship him again to the minors?  Follow him?  One thing else?  Looks like a really robust resolution because you don’t wish to sap his confidence, but in addition don’t wish to damage the MLB crew.

Jay Jaffe: you must give him greater than 19 PA, which is all he has thus far (one hit and 10 strikeouts, yikes). For those who don’t do this, then calling him up was a waste of everyone’s time, and sending him again down might be going to do extra hurt than good. I can’t think about the Orioles haven’t thought this by already  — you must at the very least contemplate that this would possibly occur whenever you make such a transfer, and have a plan in place. Perhaps it’s 3 weeks, or 50 PA or one thing, however you’ll want to see whether or not he can modify and the way he handles the adversity. I believe lots of it will depend on stuff that’s not seen to us from outdoors or that we run the hazard of projecting our personal considerations into his head. However I’ll give the Orioles the good thing about the doubt and consider they’ve a plan in place.

Phil: You’re very proper in regards to the draw back of Prospect Fever. Once I was in my teenagers or early twenties, I bear in mind being disillusioned in a couple of guys (Darren Bragg, Arquimedes Pozo) who had gotten publicity as a result of they’d been acquired in important trades. However guys who simply labored their method by the minors have been clean slates from a fan’s perspective, and it made it extra thrilling when anyone took off, and extra regular if it took them a pair years to take action. I’ll always remember seeing Mo Vaughn in his first season, seeing the ball come off his bat and realizing, oh, that is the actual factor. I do know it’s bizarre on an analytics web site to say I wish to know much less data, however I do suppose there’s a contented medium when it comes particularly to long-term projection of 19-year-old children.

Jay Jaffe: I believe at the very least a number of the impatience comes with folks eager to get an edge of their fantasy leagues or dynasty leagues or no matter. In fantasy if a man can’t enable you as we speak he’s not a lot good and also you would possibly as nicely discover somebody who can reasonably than sporting a tough rookie season.

the man who asks the questions: How actual is the Yankees pitching? It seems to be worse whenever you go from ERA to FIP to xFIP

Jay Jaffe: A 2.93 ERA with a 4.00 FIP is fairly rattling good contemplating they’re with out Cole. I believe Cortes is their greatest concern amongst their starters, as three of his 4 outings — all however the one in opposition to the weak-ass Marlins — have been fairly crummy. The opposite factor I’d fear about is that the bullpen isn’t placing many guys out; the truth is, their 17.5% Ok charge is second-to-last within the majors, and their FIP is almost twice their ERA (4.69 to 2.38). I count on lots of regression there.

Mets: All 16 video games they’ve performed this season have come in opposition to crew with a .500 or higher report (perhaps partly as a result of they’ve performed the Mets) and so they’re hanging in there with out Senga, JD & a struggling Lindor. Are they higher than what we expect/thought?

Jay Jaffe: We forecast them for 80.8 wins and 81.2 losses. Up to now they’re 8-8. Sure, they’ve executed it with out Senga and Martinez, and with Lindor not hitting, however are you anticipating a 161 wRC+ out of D.J. Stewart and 115-120 from Baty, Taylor, and Marte? I believe they’ll proceed to be a .500ish crew

War2D2: Trout is mashing like Trout of yore. What damage do you suppose will waylay him this time? My guess is on dropping a toe to a freak glazing accident.

Jay Jaffe: let’s simply say that I would like him to steer clear of all bungee-related exercise

O’s Fan: What do you suppose the Orioles ought to do with Santander?  Deadline commerce, extension, qualifying supply, or let him stroll after the season?  He’s off to a gradual begin however I might count on him to be round his profession norms when all is alleged and executed,

Jay Jaffe: Wanting on the roster and the excess of younger expertise coming by, I’ve suspected that Santander might be a July commerce chip, notably if Cowser or Kjerstad pressure the problem.

Reid Detmers: Am I legit or is it too small of a pattern measurement?

Jay Jaffe: it’s a small pattern with 2 of his 3 begin in opposition to the identical crew (Pink Sox) however these spikes in his fastball and changeup whiff charges bear watching. Each are getting totally different motion than up to now, so I ponder if one thing has modified mechanically. Preserve an eye fixed out.

WinTwins0410: Jay, congratulate me. I used to be simply named the Corridor of Fame’s CEO. Along with me making the Casebook *lastly* accessible within the bookstore/present store, I’ll make one other large resolution to overtake the Eras Committees. See what you concentrate on this. Whereas now we’ve got on a three-year rotating foundation: 1) pre-1980 gamers and non-players together with Negro Leagues gamers; 2) post-1980 gamers; and three) post-1980 managers/executives/umpires; I’ll change it to the next: A two-year cycle through which 12 months 1 consists of 1 poll for pre-1980 gamers and one separate poll for Negro Leagues gamers and 12 months 2 consists of 1 poll for post-1980 gamers and one separate poll for all non-players. Do you see that as an enchancment? (I do.) Or, ought to the Eras Committees return to evaluating Eras Committee gamers from extra than simply two time intervals? And will the Committees overview gamers from the longer-ago intervals a bit extra typically? (to stop the Dick Allen/Ron Santo threat of dying earlier than induction)

Jay Jaffe: Congratulations! I like your plan and want to subscribe to your publication.

Jay Jaffe: I believe having the Negro Leagues (and pre-Negro Leagues Black baseball) candidates thought-about on one observe is crucial to no matter replaces the present system.

Jay Jaffe: I’m superb with contemplating older eras much less often however it’s a troublesome steadiness. Contemplating Invoice Dahlen and Lefty O’Doul as soon as each 10 years made sense as a result of they have been lifeless, however as soon as each 5 years for guys of their 80s and 90s simply dangerous luck.

Edward: Any “concern” with Choose?

Jay Jaffe: A bit, yeah. He’s not hitting the ball as onerous as normal, although he’s wanting his .241 xBA and .467 xSLG. he’s additionally not placing out as a lot and even swinging as a lot, so I do marvel about that indirect concern he battled in March. If it’s hurting him to swing, they’ve an issue.

kingmitch: What are mookie betts weaknesses? if any?

Jay Jaffe: It generally takes him two bounds to leap over tall buildings, and I’m instructed he tends to underseason his pasta sauces only a bit.

John: If Mookie Betts retires proper now, is he a Corridor of Famer?  I say sure, and consequently submit that McCutchen ought to be, too, even when his peak isn’t fairly as excessive

Jay Jaffe: Huh? Betts is 31, has been enjoying at an all-Star Stage since he was 22 and has 66.6 bWAR, a few of which comes from being 156 runs above common within the subject. Cutch is 37, hasn’t performed like an All-Star since he was 28, and has 48.6 bWAR, partly as a result of he’s 77 runs beneath common within the subject. They’re not shut.

Head of the Breakfast Nook: For those who surrender 11 hits in 0.2 innings, the chances you’re tipping a few of your pitches should be pretty excessive.  Proper, Hunter Brown?

Jay Jaffe: Appears fairly more likely to me, particularly that he bought only one swing and miss out of 40 pitches. Groups are typically fairly cagey with regards to acknowledging whether or not a man is tipping, primarily as a result of it solely invitations extra scrutiny of a pitcher’s each transfer, so we could not all the time get the reality.

birds: Writers have a tendency to offer franchise icons bonus factors with regards to HOF voting (presumably they really feel extra well-known/essential to the game after they’re so essential to a crew).  Do you might have a better time voting for guys like that?  Like, is Larry Walker a better selection than Gary Sheffield?  Is there anybody borderline you suppose is tipped over the road by franchise-hero standing?

Jay Jaffe: I don’t suppose Walker was a very straightforward selection in that regard as he truly cut up the center of his profession between the Expos and Rockies. I do suppose it’s tougher for a man like Sheffield to get elected as a result of he bounced round a lot, generally as a result of he agitated his method out of city.

To the extent that being a franchise icon has weighed into my voting I’d say it’s a fairly small bonus that comes from being a part of a run of sustained success. I’ve solely gotten to fill out 4 ballots and those who come to thoughts on this are Ortiz with the Pink Sox (he’s fairly low in JAWS) and Utley with the Phillies. “Icon” is a little bit of a powerful phrase however I did throw Pettitte a vote this previous 12 months partly on account of his function within the Yankees’ dynasty.

Zach: How lengthy do the Dodgers give Lux to determine it out? He appeared superb in spring however he doesn’t look shut offensively in the intervening time. I suppose his surprisingly elite protection at second would possibly purchase him extra time. Sooner or later, they need to see if Trey Sweeney, or perhaps a Vargas transfer again to second, could be higher for the crew, proper?

Jay Jaffe: as I simply came upon in regards to the transfer initially o this chat I haven’t learn something in regards to the rationale however it could be that the Pages transfer places a squeeze on Lux by bumping Taylor and/or Kiké to extra infield work whereas Lux sits. However I believe he’s nonetheless bought some runway to determine it out.

Danny: I all the time learn your responses in Nick Offerman’s voice. Undecided how that occurred, however I assumed you must know.

Jay Jaffe: I’ll take it! (scowl whereas consuming an enormous plate of bacon)

Doc: Doc Gooden has been within the information just lately?  Along with his quick, however historic, peak and conventional daring face achievements (ROY, Cy, No-Hitter, 3 Rings), the place would you rank him among the many intestine of post-Seaver/Palmer/Carlton/Sutton/Niekro varieties outdoors the Corridor?

Jay Jaffe: I used to be glad to see Gooden’s quantity retired by the Mets. I believe it’s forgotten how good a profession he had given the high-profile issues he had. I’ve him 87th in S-JAWS, which is beneath a bunch of men I’ve endorsed (Cone, Saberhagen, Stieb, Santana, Hamels, Hershiser) and a few I’m extra lukewarm about (Pettitte, even given the aforementioned vote), Buehrle, Hudson. He’s above Oswalt and Félix. None of them had a season like Gooden’s 1985, although. Holy hell was that one thing.

Theeeeeeeee Yankees Win: The ideas of anybody however John Sterling calling Yankees video games appears sacrilegious. I’m in my mid-20s, so he’s all I’ve ever recognized! In studying about his profession, I seen he’s by no means been nominated for the Ford C. Frick Award. What wouldn’t it take for John to be honored by the Corridor? 35 years calling video games and being the voice of the final dynastic run this sport has seen need to be price consideration!

Jay Jaffe: I’m stunned Sterling has by no means been nominated however stylistically, he’s not everyone’s cup of tea, and past the nationwide voices, you’ve bought lots of competitors for recognition as a result of there are lots of broadcasters who have been iconic inside their regional markets.  

I can’t say that Sterling was my favourite announcer, however I grew fonder of him because the years handed, and notably all the time appreciated tuning right into a Yankees recreation with him and Suzyn as we hit visitors on the way in which again to NYC from our annual Cape Cod journeys. Like the remainder of this drive is gonna be a goddamn slog however we’ve at the very least bought a ballgame to distract us.

Sterling is connected to a complete lot of mostly-positive reminiscences. He’s beloved inside the trade and notably inside the Yankees group, and I want him all one of the best in his retirement.

Jordan Montgomery: Very similar to pitchers showing to worth maxing out on their velocity and stuff, are groups doing the identical? Why did it appear nobody valued Jordan Montgomery’s skill to supply 175+ good, if not nice, innings?

Jay Jaffe: I don’t suppose it was that no one valued it, it was that they didn’t worth it on the value Boras was asking, and notably when he was asking for it, after groups have been fairly locked into their budgets. That he fired Boras as his agent and can seemingly undergo all of this once more subsequent 12 months is fairly telling.

Farhandrew Zaidman: Re: Pages – CT3 has appeared dreadful and Kiké hasn’t appeared a lot better. Compulsory “it’s april” however perhaps the start of the tip for LA’s two super-Util guys?

Jay Jaffe: Actually not out of the query. Taylor has been dancing alongside the sting of a cliff since 2022

Arjay: Jack Leiter appears to have gotten his walks beneath management and remains to be a Ok machine. Is that this the Rangers not eager to waste any bullets earlier than he will get damage?

Jay Jaffe: I believe it’s as a lot in regards to the disarray inside their rotation, with Bradford hitting the IL, Heaney struggling, and the returns of deGrom, Scherzer, and Mahle being a number of months away. Leiter solely threw 85 innings final 12 months so he’s most likely not going to be closely used general; his innings proper now might be very helpful to the crew.

Yelich? Extra like Yelouch: Yelich had a superb few weeks to begin the season! If he stays wholesome/has an all-star degree 12 months, and repeats it subsequent 12 months, is he on any type of observe for HoF consideration? What sort of seasons does he must have transferring ahead to essentially transfer the needle? (finest case state of affairs being one other couple of seven win years)

Jay Jaffe: He’s actually fallen off since that 2018-19 peak, with only a .407 SLG from 2020-23. he’s at 40.4 bWAR and has simply three seasons above 3.8 WAR. Gonna want a bunch of 5+ seasons, and that i’m skeptical he has them in him.

Insert Witty Identify Right here: Re: Hunter Browns final begin, I watched it the day after, and a lot of the hits have been from breaking balls that didn’t break and have been center center.

Jay Jaffe: “What did you consider his execution?”
“I’m in favor of it.”

Jay Jaffe: Whoa, the place did the time go?

Jay Jaffe: It’s time for me to pack up and hit the highway. Thanks a lot for stopping by. We’ll do that once more quickly (however most likely not subsequent week as a result of my mother and father are in Brooklyn and my child has no college on account of Passover). Till then, take care…