Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 3/14/23

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon and Glad Pi Day, of us! I’m in the course of a snowstorm with a sick kiddo underfoot and a contractor overstaying his welcome, however we’re gonna attempt to get this one in.

Chip: Most educated folks make the purpose that you simply shouldn’t learn an excessive amount of into spring coaching outcomes, principally referring to misplaced optimism or pessimism. What if a man is continuous an already dangerous development? I’m considering particularly of Spencer Torkelson who was dangerous final 12 months, modified his bat, and now could be dangerous in spring coaching. Is he, simply, possibly not a significant league participant?

Jay Jaffe: Depend me as one who thinks you shouldn’t learn an excessive amount of into spring outcomes, or dismiss a 23-year-old with 70-grade uncooked energy after simply 404 main league plate appearances. Ought to he be within the majors but? Perhaps not, given his modest outcomes at Triple-A. Must you construct your fantasy roster round him? Hell no. However 29 spring ABs within the first half of March in opposition to variable competitors tells you nothing about the place his profession goes

A Jolly Good Oberkfellow: Whereas he’s removed from HOF-worthy, is there any likelihood you would possibly write about Joe Pepitone upon his passing the opposite day?

Snoozy: Yankees must commerce an IF for an SP proper?

Jay Jaffe: I don’t see it occurring proper now; they’re not buying and selling Peraza or Volpe, and IKF gained’t get them a starter. Perhaps they commerce Gleyber later this summer season if they should make extra room for the youngsters however that’s a protracted methods off.

Jay Jaffe: and it’s nonetheless not clear which manner the shortstop battle goes to go.

Hans Canine: Sorry:   I traded Trout for Franco +2, Rodon, and Mead +3.  Whereas he’s my all time favourite participant, I felt like I needed to do it.  Price it??

Jay Jaffe: i’m not a fantasy participant however that looks like a good deal

Padfather: Does a participant enjoying primarily for one crew assist his HOF probabilities? ie machado; does signing long run with the Padres assist his notion amongst writers now since he’ll have bigger contingency of followers and writers advocating for his election vs if he had been to play for various groups throughout his tenure?

Jay Jaffe: I believe there’s in all probability a slight benefit to single-team gamers, and we’ve seen guys who bounced round like McGriff and Sheffield (and earlier than that Dick Allen) battle to realize traction, however I’ve by no means studied the state of affairs very systematically.

JW: Do you assume Volpe breaks camp with NYY? Nonetheless looks like they’d have one too many IF

Jay Jaffe: i feel it in all probability takes an harm within the infield to get each Peraza and Volpe on the roster

Farhandrew Zaidman: In honor of Pi Day, right here’s your random stat: Mike Marshall completed with a profession ERA of three.141, 4 digits of Pi, and continues to have the one most spectacular aid season within the type of his 1974 season. 106 video games, 208.1 IP, 2.42 ERA, 1.186 WHIP. What a stud.

Tatis: Hey Jeff, would love to listen to your ideas on Tatis going into this 12 months and his long-term outlook in mild of the shoulder surgical procedure and two wrist surgical procedures this off season.  The projections don’t appear to depend the accidents and I’ve to imagine he’s nearer to 130 WRC+ than he’s 160 WRC+ this 12 months which remains to be nice however maybe there may be additional draw back…

Jay Jaffe: it’s Jay, not Jeff right here…

I don’t have a percentile breakdown of his projections however I’d be a bit cautious of that 159 wRC+ forecast myself after the shoulder and wrist surgical procedures, and on the very least deal with him as a high-variance participant who may have some actual issues recovering kind… however might be spectacular

Mr. Redlegs: Not a query, however I really like the WBC! So cool watching A ball guys get their likelihood in opposition to corridor of famers like Miguel Cabrera and hanging them out.

Jay Jaffe: I’m having fun with the hell out of it however all these late nights watching the goings-on in Taiwan and Tokyo left me fairly sleep-deprived. It’s very cool to see youthful gamers and Remembered Guys stepping up in opposition to greater names. Vance Worley hanging out Mike Trout? Find it irresistible. This one was even higher:

random Colorado man: I seen Paul Goldschmidt atop Dan’s “possible bust hitters” checklist final week.  I gained’t ask you to second guess Dan, however how a lot decline would Goldy must have so that you can think about his 2023 season a bust?  Odds on it occurring?

Jay Jaffe: “Bust” is such a relative factor, however clearly, it’s very arduous to count on a 35-year-old participant to repeat final 12 months’s 7.1 WAR season. I’d be blissful if he returns 5 WAR this 12 months (which eyeballs at a few sixty fifth percentile projection by way of Dan’s desk) however would solely be disenchanted if he falls in need of 4 WAR (fortieth percentile).

Lorenzo: When you had been capable of vote for Will Clark in your poll, would you?  What are his odds of ever getting in by way of committee? Thanks

Jay Jaffe: I like Clark greater than I do McGriff or Hodges, to decide on a few apparent reference factors, however he’s simply twenty seventh in JAWS at first base, about seven factors off the usual, and that’s too low for me even with out contemplating the truth that on an Period Committee poll he’d inevitably be up in opposition to stronger candidates. I don’t see him as having a lot likelihood of getting elected however man may that dude hit

Mac: Yankees’ lineup underratedly actually dangerous? No offense at C, LF, SS, 3B, now CF, Rizzo now injured. Season over?

Jay Jaffe: sure, they need to fold.

Sanford: Ever been to a Cylcones recreation? If that’s the case, how was the expertise?

Jay Jaffe: I’ve been to dozens of Cyclones video games through the years — robust to imagine they’ve been round since 2001 — and my daughter actually enjoys them, so we’ve hit about two per 12 months these days. She loves operating the bases after the sport so she’s stayed to the tip a number of occasions. It’s a superb little ballpark with a terrific view of the Coney Island rides previous and current (the defunct parachute drop previous proper discipline is my favourite), first rate facilities, and wonderful promotions (Mo Willems night time). Extremely advocate, particularly for those who’ve obtained youthful youngsters!

WinTwins0410: Jay, I hesitate to ask you on your ideas on one other author, however I’m curious: I don’t assume I’ve ever seen you reference Chris Bodig, who runs the Cooperstown Cred web site, in your writing.  Do you two know one another?  (I’ve to imagine you do)  Do you will have any ideas on his work?

Jay Jaffe: I’ve met Chris and I like his work quite a bit! He’s finished a really good job of constructing his web site (http://https://www.cooperstowncred.com/) We correspond quite a bit on Twitter and I do learn him — however I generally attempt to keep away from his views on candidates till I’ve formulated my very own ideas

IKantField: What’s your tackle Andrew Vaughn this 12 months? Huge step ahead with the brand new hitting coach?

Jay Jaffe: Simply wrote about him throughout the first base PPRs. I believe the brand new regime will serve him effectively, as getting him out of the outfield alone is value a win. He’s younger and hits the ball very arduous; ZiPS is excessive sufficient on him to think about him a breakout candidate.

Tstats: Glad pi day! Have you learnt if savant plans to replace the pitch arsenal visualization web page to incorporate sweepers and slurves?

Jay Jaffe: I might think about that’s coming however you’d must ask Tom Tango or Mike Petriello

Phil: Any person known as you Jeff? Didn’t Jeff go away Fangraphs years in the past, for the Rays or some such?

Jay Jaffe: Jeff Sullivan now works for the Rays. Jeff Zimmerman remains to be right here, doing his factor on the fantasy facet.

Milwaukee Beers fan: What’s your learn on the NL Central pecking order proper now? I get the Cardinals as favorites however it seems like EVERYONE is choosing St. Louis when the Crew had been slight favorites going into final 12 months. Please don’t inform me the Cubs is perhaps good once more; I can’t take it

Jay Jaffe: I believe the hole between the Cardinals and the Brewers has grown relative to final season, partly given the addition of Contreras to the previous and the commerce of Wong to Seattle by the latter. Milwaukee’s second base state of affairs even made my Weakest Positions on NL Contenders checklist https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-weakest-positions-on-national-league-c…. There’s nonetheless a really huge separation between these two groups and the Cubs, and let’s face it, the Reds and Pirates are barely making an attempt on the possession degree.

Mac: Actual query: is there one thing about Kyle Schwarber that makes him translate higher as a playoff(/WBC) hitter than it looks like somebody together with his profile as a hitter ought to? Or are the playoffs simply “a crapshoot” as youngsters as of late say

Jay Jaffe: Schwarber is a really disciplined hitter who has a ton of big-game expertise. He turned 30 this month and already has 15 postseason homers in 52 video games, with a 142 postseason wRC+ in comparison with a 121 mark through the common season. I hesitate to make use of the phrase clutch however I believe it’s clear he appears well-wired for the highlight.

Vermonty: First Yankee traded: Hicks, Donaldson or IKF? I’m considering all 3 will go this 12 months

Jay Jaffe: Nearly actually IKF since remaining wage isn’t an element.

mmddyyyy: Do all groups make use of translators?

Phil: It’s irritating to me that mid-career elite gamers are so typically mentioned by way of contracts and late-career ones by way of the Corridor of Fame, each of that are to some extent distortions of what actually issues to gamers and followers. Can we determine some different vocabulary? Is the time period “franchise participant” significant in a baseball context the way in which it’s in basketball? Can we cease utilizing “ace” to imply the #1 pitcher on a workers so we will reserve it for one of the best pitchers over all? Are there different phrases that we will debate in pleasant methods with out defaulting to cash or future voting by a bunch of grumpy writers?

Jay Jaffe: Hey, I do numerous dialogue of mid-career elites by way of Corridor of Fame probabilities!

Jay Jaffe: I do get what you’re saying, not less than to a level, and I believe that on the analytical facet there’s typically an entire lot concentrate on {dollars} and manufacturing, however I believe a lot of that’s seasonal — the offseason is a time we speak free company, contracts, budgets and the like. However there’s a lot else on the market, and through the common season there are such a lot of methods of analyzing efficiency that get away from age/contract issues.

Gashouse Gorilla: Any ready-for-primetime prospect more likely to be held again for “seasoning” as a way of lengthening management interval?

Jay Jaffe: We’ll see what occurs with the Yankees (Volpe particularly), and there are different conditions the place a ready-ish prospect may in all probability assist greater than a veteran (Francisco Alvarez and Brett Baty come to thoughts on the Mets) however I do assume that the brand new CBA has finished quite a bit to reshape the panorama right here.

Jay Jaffe: Put it this fashion, are there guys on the market you’re seeing who seem like they’re going to get jerked round like Kris Bryant?

Bison: Actually respect your HOF commentary!  Any ideas on future executives who would possibly get the corridor name?  Cashman, Theo, Billy B?

Jay Jaffe: I believe all three are very more likely to achieve entry as soon as they retire.

Freezy: Do you just like the contract extension for Corbin Carroll? It’s rather more than reigning ROY Michael Harris obtained for a similar size.

Lou Perltzman: Tar was clearly a greater film than Every part All over the place All At As soon as, proper? JAWS backs this up I’m positive

Jay Jaffe: Didn’t see Tar. In actual fact, for those who don’t depend the excruciating, weird quarter-hour of Elvis that we watched, I solely noticed three of this 12 months’s finest image nominees: Every part (liked it, already watched once more), Triangle of Disappointment (disliked however not on the dimensions of my spouse’s contempt for it), and the Fabelmans (okay, with a BIG bonus from a few late cameos).

Philly Astroturf: Pleasant reminder that the analysis linking Philadelphia’s astroturf to most cancers isn’t conclusive. Fangraphs neighborhood, of all folks, ought to acknowledge that statistical outliers can occur. Not saying that there isn’t a “there” there, however on the identical time, we shouldn’t soar to conclusions.

Jay Jaffe: No, it’s not conclusive, however it’s fairly goddamn exceptional and miserable what number of gamers who spent their careers on a few of these turfs have died of comparable cancers. I completely assume the difficulty deserves extra research.

Nick: Are you involved with swing and miss for Jordan Walker?

Jay Jaffe: not tremendously, however solely as a result of the prospect writers I’m studying don’t appear overly involved. He’s a high 5 prospect within the eyes of many and twelfth on our checklist, so it appears unlikely to be a dealbreaker.

Mr. Redlegs: Additionally late night time/early morning WBC motion has been my mild on the sleep disadvantaged tunnel as a brand new guardian

Jay Jaffe: Sorry obtained forward of myself by punching in two questions there

Jay Jaffe: The WBC sleep deprivation tunnel was me in 2017. I’ve fond reminiscences of my daughter (about 7 months on the time) simply beginning to sit up through the WBC. We watched the Netherlands pull off some upsets whereas enjoying on her foam mat

Jesse: What do you make of the Dodgers’ plan to play Mookie 20-30 video games at 2b? Is that this getting ready Mookie for a late-career transfer to a much less demanding place or a operate of their lack of up the center depth?

Jay Jaffe: They like their shifting components, and Mookie appears to love enjoying second base. With Lux out of the image and Taylor extra more likely to be wanted at shortstop, they need to maximize their choices. I doubt we find yourself with 20-30 video games of him there in the event that they battle with outfield manufacturing, although.

Professional For baseball: Something on. Profar?  Seems like participant greed over took actuality.

Jay Jaffe: sure, what a grasping participant, making an attempt to receives a commission to play baseball. grasping, grasping participant.

Jay Jaffe: Eventually word, Profar was getting curiosity from the Rockies. I believe he’s discovered himself on this limbo as a result of his brokers  misinterpret the market; he’s a little bit of a tweener by way of not having a robust sufficient observe document for manufacturing at a nook, and never a adequate defender (particularly within the infield) anymore to be a superutilityman. Ben Clemens had a superb look right here not too long ago https://blogs.fangraphs.com/why-has-no-one-signed-jurickson-profar-yet…

mmddyyyy: When did baseball develop into your full time job? What number of HOF careers have you ever lined from debut to election?

Jay Jaffe: I imagine it was 2007 after I began writing full-time although I had a reasonably good payday venture in graphic design the next 12 months. Since I started writing about baseball in 2001, I’ve lined quite a lot of careers from debut  to poll, not less than, however we now have but to elect anybody whose profession started in ’01 or later so I can’t say that I’ve finished that but.

Phil: By “a la Chris Sale,” you imply that Quintana’s harm is just like the one Sale had final 12 months, proper? You don’t have some new horrible data that’s not broadly reported but?

Jay Jaffe: I meant {that a} rib fracture can sideline a pitcher for a number of months, however in double-checking to see that I hadn’t missed something I simply noticed the place Billy Eppler stated that the pitcher can have surgical procedure to take away a benign lesion on one in all his ribs, which, yikes:

Jay Jaffe:

Dan the Man McGRAWWWW: Does Goldy or Freeman get into the Corridor?

Jay Jaffe: Significantly after final 12 months’s MVP season, I believe Goldy’s in fine condition, and Freeman is so good and so regular that I believe he’ll get there as effectively.

Joe: Votto may be an enigma in some ways–is there an opportunity he would announce he’s going to retire on the finish of the season as an alternative of creating the Cincy FO make that call subsequent offseason?

I do know he’d be strolling away from cash, but when he’s struggling, I may see his pleasure speaking too.

Jay Jaffe: that is the ultimate assured 12 months of his contract, and he’s obtained a $7 million buyout of his possibility. That’s there for a motive, and I don’t see him strolling away from it barring some midseason retirement that restructures his remaining cash into some form of deferral plan.

Freezy: Do you assume we’ll see gamers begin getting elected to the HOF unanimously quickly? I’d prefer to think about Ichiro has an opportunity to be the primary place participant to do it.

Jay Jaffe: I’ve written that Ichiro is the plain alternative however I doubt we’ve obtained any others on the radar even with the slam-dunk numbers for Pujols and Cabrera

Jay Jaffe: okay of us, time for me to roll

Jay Jaffe: Thank a lot for stopping by this week! Benefit from the WBC and the spring baseball!