| 2:03 |
 Jay Jaffe: With that, let’s get going.
|
| 2:03 |
: I’m attempting to rebalance right here, but when Cole is out for the season, do you assume the Yankees are:
A) a menace for the third wild card B) 100% lifeless within the water, stick a fork in them |
| 2:05 |
Jay Jaffe: To borrow from Monty Python for a line that’s usually quoted in our family, “A good query and one which in latest weeks ‘as been a lot on my thoughts.”
|
| 2:07 |
Jay Jaffe: I feel the reply to that relies upon upon how near the perfect variations of themselves different starters resembling Cortes, Rodón and Stroman are in 2024. If the 2 holdovers pitch as they did final 12 months, the Yankees shall be toast
|
| 2:08 |
Jay Jaffe: if the three of them pitch as much as their capabilities and in the event that they get a good fill-in, all isn’t misplaced, however it could very effectively price them down the highway — both through a commerce or a crucial payroll lower in the event that they have been so as to add an enormous wage to this 12 months
|
| 2:08 |
: I do know the mantra “spring coaching stats are meaningless,” and normally they’re. However are there stats that you simply do search for in a superb or unhealthy manner? I noticed Chris Gilligan’s article final week on pitchers with elevated velo in ST and questioned if that was a stat (like Okay%) that stabilizes rapidly.
|
| 2:10 |
Jay Jaffe: I actually principally ignore spring stats. Particularly early within the spring it’s simple to face out should you’re ramping up rapidly however too usually it’s simply that some pitchers are extra ready to take action than others.
|
| 2:11 |
: Is Nolan Schanuel the second coming of John Olerud—or Luis Arraez? Will the Angels persist with him even when he hits simply 10 HRs a 12 months?
|
| 2:14 |
Jay Jaffe: I don’t assume he’s the second coming of both of them however his profile is extra like that of Arraez in that it will likely be excessive contact/decrease energy. He might have some vaguely Olerud-like plate self-discipline however Olerud had a bunch of 20-homer seasons and I don’t count on that from Schanuel
|
| 2:15 |
: It’s chilly and wet in Humboldt County, CA, the place I reside. Having mates over for chili and Dodgers (me) vs. Giants (everybody else) preseason smack discuss tomorrow evening. Any beer suggestions?
|
| 2:16 |
Jay Jaffe: I’d think about Pliny the Elder is fairly accessible there, and Russian River’s Blind Pig IPA, too
|
| 2:17 |
Jay Jaffe: On the Twitter craft beer thread that I’m on because of Eno Sarris, Cellarmaker turns up so much as effectively. Haven’t had any of their stuff however I do know it’s extremely regarded
|
| 2:17 |
Jay Jaffe: Talking of Pliny, Ben Clemens despatched me some a pair weeks in the past. Now that’s what I search for in a teammate!
|
| 2:17 |
: Hypothetical: It’s 2034 and the HOF has modified its committees (once more). There’s an period committee for 1950-1985 and you’ve got been requested to chair the committee to create the poll. No gamers from that period have been added because the current. Who do you placed on the poll? Observe: Clemens is in one other period.
|
| 2:20 |
Jay Jaffe: ooh, hmm. Dick Allen, Bobby Grich and Invoice Freehan come to thoughts. Thurman Munson, Dwight Evans, Lou Whitaker as effectively. If I’ve received eight slots as the present poll, let’s add some pitching… Luis Tiant and Dave Stieb can be good ones.
|
| 2:20 |
Jay Jaffe: The issue with that’s that there are such a lot of good candidates that the votes may get unfold too skinny to get anybody the 75% consensus wanted.
|
| 2:23 |
: Ought to JD Davis be extra offended at a) the Giants; b) his agent; c) his union
|
| 2:24 |
Jay Jaffe: Davis received caught in one thing of an ideal storm as a result of he’ll solely get a fraction of his $6.9 million arb win. By way of ESPN:
“Beneath baseball’s collective bargaining settlement, negotiated contracts for arbitration-eligible gamers are assured, whereas salaries determined by an arbitration panel will not be. That allowed the Giants to launch Davis for 30 days’ termination pay, which got here to $1,112,903.” |
| 2:27 |
Jay Jaffe: It seems just like the Giants filed at $6.55 million however that there was some unhealthy feeling in regards to the timing of it relative to the potential of a settlement so i’d say the group might be responsible greater than any of them. That mentioned, I feel Davis’ personal limitations as a participant are what made him susceptible to being on this place.
|
| 2:28 |
Jay Jaffe: It’s all a reasonably powerful break for him a method or one other, and he’s going to get so much much less as soon as he indicators elsewhere
|
| 2:28 |
: When you’re gonna pay an enormous AAV for (in all probability) a single season of a pitcher, then having that man miss all of spring and begin the season late looks like an enormous drawback. With each passing day Snell/Monty are hurting their single season AAV. Assuming they’re not morons (or not less than Boras isn’t), does that imply they really nonetheless assume they’re getting 5-6 years?
|
| 2:28 |
Jay Jaffe: at this stage I feel it’s extra doubtless they get one thing just like the Bellinger deal, shorter time period and with opt-outs.
|
| 2:29 |
: Approach too early HOF query for the “Basic Baseball Period” committee: Are you for candidates like Jim McCormick, Bobby Mathews, Invoice Dahlen, and Sherry Magee?
|
| 2:31 |
Jay Jaffe: The one candidate from amongst people who quickens my pulse is Dahlen, however he was additionally not a terrific man even by turn-of-the-century ballplayer requirements. Although I do agree McCormick is missed, Nineteenth-century pitchers from earlier than the times of 60-foot-6 don’t do a lot for me, and I feel his election would fulfill at most tens or possibly a whole bunch of individuals. I’d a lot quite see Negro Leagues candidates on the poll instead of all 4 of these guys.
|
| 2:31 |
: Will Curtis Mead and Miguel Vargas have fantasy relevance this season?
|
| 2:32 |
Jay Jaffe: Extra doubtless Mead than Vargas, I feel — he may make the Rays and see time at a number of positions. I don’t see a lot future for Vargas in LA
|
| 2:33 |
: Nonetheless wonderful to me that the Yankees and Dodgers didn’t find yourself with ANY of the premier FA shortstops of the previous couple of years. When Lindor, Correa, Seager, Turner et al have been approaching FA, it appeared inevitable that one can be a Yankee, one can be a Dodger. Do they remorse their selections to not allocate sources up-the-middle?
|
| 2:35 |
Jay Jaffe: I feel the Yankees OUGHT to remorse staying out of that market as a result of they haven’t gotten a lot of their place (Volpe shall be tremendous however may have been slotted elsewhere within the infield). Whereas I feel the Dodgers would have been higher off signing a kind of guys, it now is smart that they have been retaining their powder dry for Ohtani. Nonetheless, they’ve susceptible up the center even when the Mookie experiement continues to pay dividends, as a result of Lux is a little bit of a multitude
|
| 2:35 |
: Love all of your work, Jay. What are the highest few belongings you now perceive about baseball that you simply didn’t know 5 or ten years in the past?
|
| 2:38 |
Jay Jaffe: Thanks, Kevin. I’d wish to assume I perceive all the things higher than I did 5-10 years in the past however particularly methods to use Statcast knowledge — which is a continuing studying course of — and getting a greater really feel for when totally different stats stabilize. Even so, the extra expertise I acquire, the extra I recognize how a lot there nonetheless is to study.
|
| 2:41 |
Jay Jaffe: Apparently the Dan Evans tweet didn’t present up so right here it’s as a screenshot:
|
| 2:41 |
Jay Jaffe: 
|
| 2:41 |
: FG Depth Charts has Acuna with 135 runs this 12 months! As a median projection! Is it actually doable that the median is one thing that occurs as soon as each 3-4 years?
|
| 2:43 |
Jay Jaffe: Wow, that does appear … kinda excessive. We’ve had simply 9 seasons of 135 or extra runs scored since 2001 so yeah, i’d in all probability take the below on that. Although I feel he’ll rating a ton of runs in what seems like a formidable lineup
|
| 2:43 |
: Hello Jay,
Do you assume we’ll ever see a main knuckleball pitcher once more within the MLB, or has the pitch has been phased out to the historical past books? |
| 2:44 |
Jay Jaffe: Sadly I feel it’s the latter. With velocity so available, and with the flexibility to make use of know-how to experiment with grips and optimize pitches, we’re going to see fewer junkballers survive lengthy sufficient to show to the knuckler. I actually hope I’m mistaken about this
|
| 2:45 |
: Do you see Joey Votto enjoying for the Blue Jays this 12 months?
|
| 2:46 |
Jay Jaffe: Extra doubtless than not. Not as a full-timer, and he’ll nearly definitely begin the season in Buffalo, however I feel that if he’s stayed in form, being a second offseason faraway from shoulder surgical procedure must imply that he’s stronger.
|
| 2:46 |
: Might the Yankees hypothetically run $400mm payrolls perpetually given their income?
|
| 2:47 |
Jay Jaffe: In all probability however they’d get much less bang for his or her buck since a better % of that might be tied up in taxes and would compromise their participant growth since they’d be selecting decrease, and so forth.
|
| 2:47 |
: Do Kenley and Kimbrel have photographs on the corridor? Why is Okay rod ignored so usually
|
| 2:51 |
Jay Jaffe: As for Okay-Rod, aside from the save whole, he’s a transparent step or two down from Wagner in run prevention and in dominance, to say nothing of his character, about which the much less mentioned the higher. Many citizens really feel there’s already too many relievers within the Corridor; with Wagner so near election, Okay-Rod could also be caught in a little bit of a backlash. However he additionally had an ERA greater than half a run greater
|
| 2:51 |
: After the Oscars this weekend, what are your high baseball motion pictures?
|
| 2:54 |
Jay Jaffe: the identical as they have been earlier than: Dangerous New Bears and Bull Durham are tops and I by no means tire of them. I get pleasure from Eight Males Out regardless of the historic inaccuracies. The Bingo Lengthy Touring All-Stars film, with Richard Pryor, Billy Dee Williams, and James Earl Jones is type of a sleeper choose.
|
| 2:56 |
: Votto’s HOF case is principally absolutely baked at this level – there’s no extra spherical numbers to succeed in, his charges received’t change a lot. I’m pondering although that going again to Canada, being actual joyful within the dugout, giving a couple of extra pleasant interviews and customarily reminding everybody they love him might be the largest enhance to his HOF possibilities I can think about.
|
| 2:57 |
: Is it doable that Snell and the opposite Boras shoppers on the FA market will go unsigned into opening day?
|
| 2:58 |
Jay Jaffe: I’d say that appears impossible. I’d guess by this time subsequent week he’s signed.
|
| 2:58 |
: Re: the pitchers and lacking spring, I meant that in the event that they’re signing a short-term opt-out deal, then the signing group is barely getting worth from them in 2024, and by not signing these guys are actively hurting their 2024 worth
|
| 3:00 |
Jay Jaffe: certain, they’re taking a threat. Nevertheless it’s not as if their eggs are solely in a single basket (I might count on a number of opt-outs) or that their suitors shall be unaware of the context of this season if they’ve sluggish begins. It’s not a hard-and-fast “until you get to 4.0 WAR there’s no purpose to choose out” state of affairs.
|
| 3:00 |
: The Braves fifth starter spot appears more likely to be both Lopez or Elder, however within the (pretty doubtless) even that neither is any good, and AJSS & Waldrep doubtless want extra time within the minors, what’s the transfer? Might there be a reprise of the 2019 Keuchel state of affairs?
|
| 3:02 |
Jay Jaffe: As in will they go outdoors the group? i feel nearly each contender can afford to dip into the market of unsigned free agent starters and take a flyer. Michael Lorenzen? Jake Odorizzi? Wealthy Hill? They’re all on the market, as is Keuchel who’s been legitimately horrible for 3 straight years.
|
| 3:04 |
: How do Holliday and Vlad examine when he was a prospect?
|
| 3:07 |
Jay Jaffe: Simply Eric Longenhagen’s grades atop their participant playing cards, it seems like Vladito was not less than a full grade greater when it comes to future worth for the offense classes and MUCH greater when it comes to current worth: 65 PV/70 FV hit and sport energy, 80/80 uncooked energy for Guerrero, 45/60 for hit, 25/60 for sport, 50/60 for uncooked
However, Holliday has a transparent edge in pace and protection. Each graded out at 70 FV prospects, simply received there through totally different routes. |
| 3:07 |
: Who’s extra more likely to be the Venezuelan GOAT in 2035: Cabrera, Altuve, or Acuña?
|
| 3:10 |
Jay Jaffe: Cabrera’s mixture of 3000+ hits and 500+ homers is hard to beat. Altuve could have his work lower out simply to get to the previous. Acuña’s energy/pace combo is so tantalizing that if he stays wholesome he may not less than be probably the most thrilling of the three, however we’ve already seen one main damage from him and not less than a pair different scares.
|
| 3:11 |
: Do you place any weight on the concept that the HOF isn’t merely for guys who have been wonderful ballplayers, however who moreover carried a sure additional je ne sais quoi? Like, possibly I’m nuts, however I can’t assist however really feel Andrew McCutchen has been a extra vital a part of baseball than the statistically superior Bobby Abreu or Jim Edmonds. Have I change into outdated and am simply complaining about computer systems stating I’m mistaken?
|
| 3:14 |
Jay Jaffe: I feel your subjective viewpoint is doing a lot of the work there. McCutchen is the one one among them who received an MVP, however Edmonds was a key a part of two pennant winners, for instance.
|
| 3:15 |
: Relating to baseball motion pictures: any love for Main League? Elements of it admittedly haven’t aged effectively, however I feel its on the sector stuff–simply being in regards to the sport and never baseball as vaporous metaphor for X–holds up simply tremendous.
|
| 3:17 |
Jay Jaffe: It’s a enjoyable film, and I prefer it so much, however it’s not on my high tier. Those I named share in frequent an inclination for sharper critiques of baseball’s tradition and its place because the nationwide pastime.
|
| 3:17 |
: Is Everson Pereira + Oswald Peraza sufficient for Stop?
|
| 3:19 |
Jay Jaffe: no. If it have been, that deal would have been performed awhile in the past. My guess is the White Sox would need both Spencer Jones or Jasson Dominguez as the highest prospect from the Yankees, and that they’d need 3-4 prospects whole.
|
| 3:19 |
: The place do you want to sit down when attending a ballgame?
|
| 3:21 |
Jay Jaffe: excessive third base aspect within the infield is type of my default. That is the place my mates and that i sit for our partial season bundle at Yankee Stadium
|
| 3:21 |
Jay Jaffe: 
|
| 3:22 |
Jay Jaffe: If I could be a bit decrease with out paying by means of the nostril, even higher however I have a tendency to not splurge an excessive amount of for tickets, because it’s uncommon {that a} single sport means a lot to me once I can get into any ballpark I have to in the course of the common season through my credential.
|
| 3:23 |
: Associated to Cole’s elbow – have you ever ever heard of a participant searching for ‘a number of opinions’ on one thing that may very well be pretty benign? It looks like that’s the buried lede there.
|
| 3:24 |
Jay Jaffe: I feel there are second opinions much more than you in all probability hear about, however whereas this will likely really feel like belt-and-suspenders territory, there aren’t many gamers on $300 million offers to train that type of warning over.
|
| 3:25 |
: I do know I ought to let it go, however isn’t the Mariners lacking out on Soto one of many largest whiffs of the offseason? I don’t know what discussions they could have had, however it’s laborious to think about a greater match on a one-year deal. And so they simply may have matched what the Yankees despatched to SD. Ideas?
|
| 3:29 |
Jay Jaffe: I feel should you’re evaluating them, so much comes right down to tolerance of threat. The Yankees may afford to take one by clearing out numerous higher degree depth plus King whereas realizing they will spend massive if wanted, and reside with the probability Soto would stroll away as a free agent, whereas the Mariners didn’t really feel like they have been as effectively positioned to take action given the even higher probability Soto departed.
|
| 3:30 |
Jay Jaffe: Okay people, that’s it from me right here. Chats is perhaps scarce for the remainder of the month as a result of PPRs and journey however I’ll attempt to get one in. Get pleasure from spring coaching!
|
Brooklyn-based Jay Jaffe is a senior author for FanGraphs, the creator of The Cooperstown Casebook (Thomas Dunne Books, 2017) and the creator of the JAWS (Jaffe WAR Rating) metric for Corridor of Fame evaluation. He based the Futility Infielder web site (2001), was a columnist for Baseball Prospectus (2005-2012) and a contributing author for Sports activities Illustrated (2012-2018). He has been a recurring visitor on MLB Community and a member of the BBWAA since 2011, and a Corridor of Fame voter since 2021. Observe him on Twitter @jay_jaffe… and BlueSky @jayjaffe.bsky.social.
