Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 11/7/23

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, people! Welcome to the primary offseason version of my Tuesday chat!

Jay Jaffe: That is additionally very presumably the final one in all these I conduct for just a few weeks in my present abode, as The Large Transfer from the residence the place I’ve spent the previous 16 years — the on a regular basis skilled a part of my writing profession, as it’s — to our new residence additional south in Brooklyn is scheduled for every week from Saturday.

Jay Jaffe: It’s all very thrilling and aggravating and there’s loads to do, as you may think about. Since I’ll be with out a pc setup for just a few days, I’ll need to work forward, therefore the unlikelihood of a chat subsequent week.

Anyway, yesterday I wrote about Clayton Kershaw’s surgical procedure and Lance Lynn’s possibility: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/with-kershaws-surgery-and-lynns-declined-o…

Jay Jaffe: And now, on with the present

Votto: What ought to I do that offseason? (Assuming that no matter I select is what makes me joyful) Is it to retire? Take a bench position with the Reds (once more, assuming they’d have me)? Or signal with one other group – and which group?

Jay Jaffe: Congrats, Joey! If that is it for you, you’ve had a splendid profession and also you’re headed for Cooperstown as a one-team star. In case you have the urge for food, nonetheless, I’m certain there’s a touchdown spot for you as a part-time DH/1B/hitting guru/chessmaster. The Blue Jays are a logical match given your Canadian heritage, the Angels will virtually actually want a brand new DH, and the Diamondbacks might be a great place with an up-and-coming group

Jay Jaffe: That mentioned, if the Reds can squeeze you onto the roster, they could make loads of sense because the development arrows seem like pointing in the suitable route.

Kevin: is being a Roberto Clemente Award nominee or winner a HOF vote consideration for you together with the opposite apparent efficiency issues?

Jay Jaffe: Probably not. It’s an information level concerning a participant doing good in his neighborhood, however the single most unsavory canine**** candidate of this millennium — from a personality standpoint, I ought to make clear — received one earlier than he went across the bend, in order that type of reductions its utility for me.

Eddie: What do you seeing NYY doing this offseason (other than planning on bunting extra)? An entire lot of concern over (principally) nothing from Hal’s press convention. Most essential nugget in all probability got here after when Jack Curry famous Yamamoto is of nice curiosity to them.

Jay Jaffe: They actually do have to make at the least one marquee addition, perhaps even two. Yoshinobu Yamamoto actually fills a necessity, and my guess is that they’ll see what it could take to land Bellinger. I additionally suppose they may wind up buying and selling Oswald Peraza, who struggled final 12 months at age 23 however graded out nicely as a prospect and has six years of management remaining, to assist them someplace else

Matt VW: Serious about Counsell’s new contract: is there a case to be made that managers have gotten extra invaluable as bullpen deployment and upkeep is turning into extra elaborate?

Jay Jaffe: The in-game tactical stuff remains to be only a fraction of a supervisor’s job, albeit one which does crtically depend on timing and the power to transform quite a lot of knowledge right into a plan of motion that will get a group’s buy-in. The softer elements — capacity to guide a disparate bunch of people and to behave as a face of the franchise for the media — are an enormous a part of the job as nicely. MLB supervisor salaries have lengthy lagged behind these of different coaches, so it’s not stunning that they’re lastly catching up. Good on Counsell for utilizing his leverage to assist make that occur.

Sizzling Range Chef: Which Division do you suppose may have essentially the most fascinating offseason by way of trades and FA signings? NL West given the truth that the Giants want some star energy, the Padres are run by AJ Preller, the Dodgers shall be making a run at Ohtani and have to put collectively a rotation, and the DBacks are coming off a shock World Collection look? AL West as a result of Dealer Jerry all the time has one thing up his sleeve? AL Central as a result of it’s such a winnable division that every marginal improve might make the distinction? Or D) Different?

Jay Jaffe: NL West for the explanations you point out, AL East as a result of the Yankees are the 800-lb gorilla within the room. As for Dealer Jerry, the previous 12 months has proven that the emperor has no sleeves.

Benny: What do you make of the argument that Davey Johnson had two thirds of a Corridor of Fame managerial profession, but in addition one third of a Corridor of Fame taking part in profession, so he ought to be a Corridor of Famer?

Jay Jaffe: Meh, that’s probably not the way it works. There are lots of gamers within the Corridor who had okay managerial careers, at the least for awhile, and quite a lot of good managers who had respectable taking part in careers, the purpose of the Corridor is to acknowledge anyone who kicked ass in a single side or the opposite.

Visitor: Hello Jay. How do you are feeling a second world collection MVP impacts Corey Seager’s HOF case? I do know a number of Cy Youngs haven’t helped some instances, however nothing appears extra essential than being the primary cog in successful a number of titles.

Jay Jaffe: it helps just a little, actually, however he’s considerably behind contemporaries corresponding to Lindor (similar age) and Correa (one 12 months youthful) in JAWS in addition to some like Bogaerts and Turner who’re older. This was his first season above 4.0 bWAR since 2017; he wants to have the ability to keep on the sector and carry out at a excessive degree to catch up; if he can try this, the postseason stuff will put him over the road

All I Need for Christmas Is Ale: What’s your favourite seasonal beer across the holidays? As a Californian, I’m a giant fan of Firestone Walker’s Cinnamon Dolce Nitro Stout (don’t overlook the surge pour!) and shall be pouring one out for my first Christmas with out an Anchor Steam Christmas Ale.

Jay Jaffe: Good query. I don’t chase a ton of vacation beers anymore, so I’m as prone to simply accept a favourite darkish stout or porter within the colder months. I do love the Sierra Nevada Celebration Ale as a vacation beer

Boomstick: Liked Kiri Oler’s article on Nelson Cruz upon his retirement from baseball. I realized loads about Boomstick, from his humanitarian efforts to the mentorship he supplied to youthful gamers to the Rangers’ sizzling canine named after him. Hardball query: have you ever ever eaten a Boomstick Sizzling Canine?

Jay Jaffe: I’ve by no means eaten a Boomstick sizzling canine. Not against attempting it (as a share) however i’ve by no means been in a ballpark the place one was being served

1st Ohtani Query of Hundreds of thousands this Offseason: MLBTradeRumors’s three surveyed writers unanimously predicted Shohei to the Dodgers, predicting a 12-year $528M contract that might tie the best common annual worth and take him by his age-40 season. Sir, your ideas?

Jay Jaffe: That appears about proper however I’d anticipate him to get each the $ and AAV title belts in a single fell swoop

Captain ACAB: What do you consider Bartolo Colon’s HOF case? Have you ever written about it but?

Jay Jaffe: He’ll be on the poll this winter. I drastically loved the man’s profession, particularly its third act from the time he joined the Yankees, however he doesn’t actually have a robust case for the Corridor (simply 46.2 bWAR) even earlier than we acknowledge that his PED suspension principally kills his candidacy

Jay Jaffe: And the identical goes for Nelson Cruz, by the way in which. He did an excellent job of incomes his approach again into the sport’s good graces, is held in excessive esteem by groups and teammates, however as I mentioned on Twitter the opposite day, it could look totally silly and ridiculous for the BBWAA to elect a participant who was truly suspended for PEDs when clear penalties have been in place after rejecting a number of corresponding to Bonds and Clemens, who have been alleged to have used throughout a time earlier than the testing-and-penalty framework was in place.

Sanford: Congrats on the brand new residence, Jay! What neighborhood are ya transferring to (if you happen to don’t thoughts my asking)? I’ve been renting in NYC for some time now however seeking to purchase quickly too

Jay Jaffe: I’m not going to be too particular about the place in a public discussion board, besides to say that it’s inside strolling distance of Prospect Park.

Better of luck shopping for, holy hell is it an ordeal

JC: Have you ever tried any AI bots for baseball questions? Those I’ve tried are horrible

Jay Jaffe: No. I’ve executed little or no taking part in with AI. I’m not gonna be the one who feeds and trains the machines

Captain ACAB: Does Dusty Baker give a HOF speech in his lifetime?

Jay Jaffe: Sure. Summer season of 2027

Jon: Does Stuff+ seem someplace on particular person participant pages?

MostlyToasty1: Is Nick Martinez lastly going to be a full-time SP subsequent 12 months or are potential patrons extra desirous about his multi-use position?

Jay Jaffe: Good query. I don’t get the sense that he has the stuff to be a full-time starter. On the very least he’s going to have to chop that stroll price if he’s going to outlive in that capability

Matt VW: Hindsight is 20/20 and the dialog on pitching nonetheless had a robust “horses gotta horse” bent to it on the time, however is placing 276.2 innings on 20-year-old Dwight Gooden a think about evaluating Johnson’s HoF candidacy?

Jay Jaffe: Eh, it’s robust to carry that in opposition to Johnson particularly — these have been the instances and Gooden held up fairly nicely beneath the workload, or at the least that wasn’t actually the reason for his downfall. That mentioned, we don’t have pitch counts for him (or anybody else, at the least systematically) till 1988 so it’s a bit more durable to evaluate on a extra granular foundation.

It’s a query that Johnson has thought of, nonetheless. Once I was researching my piece I got here throughout a current Q&A he did with MLB’s Invoice Ladson (https://www.mlb.com/news/q-a-with-former-mets-manager-davey-johnson). This was the closing alternate:

MLB.com: Moreover the Mets, you managed the Nationals, Orioles, Reds and Dodgers. Do you suppose you’re a Corridor of Fame supervisor?

Jay Jaffe: Johnson: I don’t suppose something about that. That’s the least of my worries. After I retired in 2013, my job is being father and husband. I maintain my canines, chickens, and I’ve good properties now. Once I look again on my [managerial] profession, I hope I gave everyone possibilities. I additionally hope I didn’t abuse the pitchers and harm their careers.

Jay Jaffe: sorry, needed to break that up

Farhandrew Zaidman: Do you get squirmy by the thought of the pitcher main the league in walks successful the Cy Younger (Snell)?

Jay Jaffe: I don’t adore it within the summary and I actually don’t take pleasure in watching Snell nibble and stroll 4 guys per night time however he’s proven a knack for sequencing and suppressing arduous contact, (observe the profession -0.62 hole between his ERA and FIP) so I do imagine these walks are much less impactful than they’d be within the fingers of a much less expert pitcher

That is the way it works: Truly, that’s how Bonds+Clemens will get in. Some beloved, much less infamous PED consumer will get in no matter his suspension (no, I don’t suppose it’ll be Cruz), then sufficient voters will say, ‘OK, guess it’s simply too unfair and inconsistent to not take Bonds/Clemens subsequent’.

Farhandrew Zaidman: Muncy was quoted as saying his extension was “in all probability beneath market.” Is that truly true, although? The wRC+ retains creeping down, and the 3B protection is…erm…not nice.

Jay Jaffe: So sure, the extension was virtually actually beneath market.

Visitor: Within the case of somebody like Colon, do we have to go strictly on numbers? If I have been a author and I made a decision to vote for him partly primarily based on his numbers and partly primarily based on his different contributions to the sport– particularly, the house run he hit and the jiggly-belly gif– would that be so incorrect? He straddled eras. He had an increase, a fall, and a redemption arc. He introduced pleasure to many, and he was intermittently very, superb. Why can’t that be sufficient?

Jay Jaffe: Look, the world and the Corridor could be higher locations if we acknowledged these issues for what they’re however the Corridor is meant to be a method of honoring the elite performances and most impactful figures within the sport’s historical past and I don’t suppose you may simply get him onto these admittedly subjective tiers with out opening the door to dozens of different guys who, for instance, did comparable with out getting suspended.

Reds Enjoyer: Why are my Redlegs not talked about extra within the Bellinger discussions? Our payroll goes to be ridiculously low (even for us) and the match appears excellent to me. 4 years/ $100 million, let’s experience!

Jay Jaffe: he’s going to get rather more than 4/$100M

MostlyToasty1: I do know he’s coming off an elite GG-winning defensive 12 months in CF, however does Brenton Doyle run the chance of dropping taking part in time subsequent 12 months if the bat doesn’t come round in some unspecified time in the future? What does a practical ceiling appear like for him?

Jay Jaffe: Properly, the Rockies gave over 1400 PA to Raimel Tapia and his 77 wRC+ so it’s fairly clear they’ve solely a partial inkling of learn how to navigate this. I believe they need to hope the bat will come round however Eric Longenhagen put grades of 20/30 on his hit instrument and 30/40 on his sport energy, with a 40 FV total grade, which isn’t even low-end common materials. At greatest, primarily based on my learn of the grades (I actually have seen little or no of his play and am not a scout anyway), my interpretation is that he might outdo himself and will get into that low-end common bucket for just a few years.

Jason: Are there any starters you suppose match inside Arizona’s value vary? I’ve seen Lorenzen as a guess however I’m not satisfied he truly strikes the needle in any respect.

Jay Jaffe: Eduardo Rodriguez could be an possibility however I don’t see why they couldn’t pursue anyone like Jordan Montgomery, whose AAV will in all probability be within the low $20Ms. It’s not like they’re operating $200M payrolls. In the event that they’re unwilling to pay to maintain this aggressive window, direct your pitchforks in direction of Ken Kendrick

Simply Fowl: Ought to Ohtani be cautious of the Dodgers’ doubtful historical past of pitchers’ well being?

Jay Jaffe: ought to the man with two TJ procedures (one modified)… wait you misplaced me there

Farhandrew Zaidman: Any floor degree (or deeper) takes from the Steinbrenner press convention? Stating AZ/HOU as an excuse to not spend feels weak, and pre-meditated going all the way in which again to CBA negotiations.

Jay Jaffe: I didn’t hear, tbh. He’s clearly a really risk-averse and principally controversy-averse proprietor, which might be much less of a giant deal if he have been in a unique market or had a unique final identify. In case you’re the Yankees, generally you simply gotta hit the suitable gamers along with your pockets, however that includes selecting the best gamers, too.

Dmytro: Suppose Rodon makes a bounceback? What do underlying stats inform us about him when he’s wholesome, why did he cease lacking bats?

Jay Jaffe: on that topic… I didn’t see Rodón maintain any degree of efficiency for very lengthy that provides me specific hope for a rebound, BUT his monitor file clearly illustrates a capability to combat his approach out of the weeds, and that’s not nothing. A cycle of again troubles may be very robust to interrupt, and I’m guessing that an offseason of not attempting to combat the clock shall be helpful, which is to say that I believe you/they simply need to hope that they flip the web page on a nightmarish 12 months and go ahead with a clear invoice of well being

Kyle: What do you make of Harper (through Boras) presumably hinting that he’d like more cash within the type of an extension? The house owners would by no means let Middleton set this precedent, proper? It’s not like they will renegotiate when a participant is a bust.

Jay Jaffe: it’s silliness. He signed that deal. Salaries inevitably catch as much as make such offers look much less outrageous. The one approach I’d lengthen him can be to create a decrease AAV which might assist navigate CBT points. Such as you wanna add two extra years at $10 million? Uh okay I suppose.

Byron Denniston: The $600 millionhype/expectation for Ohtani from late summer time is lengthy gone, all the way down to $500. How low does it go? Harper, Machado, Bryant, and many others all bought hit with faux numbers earlier than FA too

Jay Jaffe: The $600 million quantity disappeared not as a result of it was “faux” however as a result of he had elbow surgical procedure, creating very actual issues about his future as a pitcher.

Jay Jaffe: in addition to knocking him out for a full season in that division

Reds Enjoyer: My 100/4 estimate was a little bit of a joke (clearly Bellinger will get an extended deal) however the sentiment was actual. Even when he will get 175/7 I don’t see why the Reds wouldn’t be a suitor to pay him that. He would make a joke out of GABP if he performed the way in which he did final 12 months. Anyway, thanks for the chat as all the time Jay!

Jay Jaffe: I in all probability fired off my reply too early; i threw round 4/$100-ish kind estimates in-season when it regarded extra doubtless he would regress in direction of his less-impressive Statcast numbers.

Jay Jaffe: It will make sense for the Reds to pursue him however he additionally does carry extra threat than your common place participant within the $100-200 million vary primarily based on his historical past, and the Reds… they carry extra threat aversion in the case of massive salaries.

Justin: Undecided if you happen to’ve seen mlb commerce rumors free agent predictions however their wage predictions appear excessive to me on common. Do you agree?

Jay Jaffe: I noticed the 12/$264M prediction for Bellinger and Coca Cola that I drank final week began taking pictures from my nostril.

Jay Jaffe: I haven’t systematically evaluated their top-50 predictions, however some appear all proper and some appear outrageous. it is going to be fascinating to match their numbers with ours when our High 50 runs subsequent Thursday

Bob: Maybe Dan is best suited to this query however are playoff stats included in a gamers projection for the following season?

Jay Jaffe: I don’t imagine so

Captain ACAB: Is HOF worthiness actually one in all your passions or is it simply the primary approach you broke on to the scene and have been caught with that area of interest?

Jay Jaffe: Extra the primary than the second. I actually benefit from the subject, got here up with a instrument that folks discovered useful, and was capable of construct that out in a fashion that includes a considerable a part of my workload with out feeling like an undue burden. It’s nice to occupy a spot the place you’re thought of an knowledgeable on the topic — I’ve heard quite a lot of fantastic issues from folks inside the sport, and meaning loads to me

A Boy Named Yu: Preliminary ideas on Counsell to the Cubs? How did they hold it so quiet? Ideas on David Ross now?

Jay Jaffe: It’s actually a shocker, a transfer whose stealth wouldn’t have been potential if Counsell had been beneath contract, as a result of the Cubs would have needed to search (and sure be denied) permission to talk to him. I can type of perceive the logic; if I’m going to go to an even bigger market, perhaps the one nearer to residence makes extra sense even when the proprietor isn’t as inclined to spend as a lot and even when I don’t know the POBO as nicely.

Jay Jaffe: It’s nonetheless type of bizarre however perhaps the working relationship between Stearns and Counsell wasn’t as sturdy as beforehand believed. And it does seem that elevating the payroll bar for managers was a precedence for the man

Kyle: Let’s say Soto’s 2024 is just like his 2023. Does he beat Ohtani’s deal in both complete worth or AAV?

Jay Jaffe: I don’t suppose so. He’ll hit free company at three years youthful, and his three-year offensive efficiency is just like that of Ohtani, however he doesn’t have the additional hooks of additionally being a top-flight pitcher and having a historical past of stardom inside and connection to a rustic of 112 million folks the way in which Ohtani does.

Jay Jaffe: OK people, time for me to wrap this one up. Thanks a lot for stopping by. As I mentioned earlier than, it’s going to be just a few weeks earlier than I’m again on this spot, so take pleasure in what November has to supply.