JAWS and the 2023 Hall of Fame Ballot: Jered Weaver

The next article is a part of Jay Jaffe’s ongoing have a look at the candidates on the BBWAA 2023 Corridor of Fame poll. For an in depth introduction to this yr’s poll, and different candidates within the collection, use the device above; an introduction to JAWS will be discovered here. For a tentative schedule, and an opportunity to fill out a Corridor of Fame poll for our crowdsourcing challenge, see here. All WAR figures consult with the Baseball-Reference model except in any other case indicated.

It’s not simple to observe in an older sibling’s footsteps, notably when that older sibling is a first-round draft choose, a high prospect, and a bona fide main league beginning pitcher. But given a leg up by the good thing about Jeff Weaver’s expertise — not that the 6-foot-7, 210-pound righty wanted it — Jered Weaver superior past massive brother’s accomplishments. In a 13-year profession (2005–17), he made three All-Star groups and completed among the many high 5 within the Cy Young voting thrice, serving as a rotation stalwart on 4 Angels groups that made the playoffs. In 2012, he pitched a no-hitter, the tenth in franchise historical past.

Regardless of his dimension, Weaver wasn’t dependent upon energy. His violent, cross-body supply produced deception, and his lengthy limbs resulted in nice extension, serving to his arsenal — a four-seamer that was initially 91–93 mph, a sinker that was 86–90, and a curve, slider, and changeup — play up. Like fellow 2023 poll newcomer Matt Cain, he didn’t strike out a ton of hitters, however he ranked among the many sport’s greatest at suppressing batting common on balls in play through weak contact that included a ton of pop-ups. Sadly, the stress of his supply took his toll on his hips and shoulders, and as soon as his velocity waned into the mid-80s, he was a sitting duck. He threw his final main league pitch greater than 4 months earlier than his thirty fifth birthday.

Jered David Weaver was born on October 4, 1982 in Northridge, California and grew up in suburban Simi Valley, the youthful of two sons of Dave and Gail Weaver. {An electrical} contractor by day, Dave coached each Jeff (b. 1976) and Jered of their youths; he would sit on a bucket outdoors of the dugout throughout their video games, signaling pitches. “They had been 8, 9, 10 years previous, so the alternatives had been restricted to fastball or a not-so-fastball, which we now name a changeup,” wrote the Orange County Register’s Landon Corridor within the wake of the youthful Weaver’s no-hitter in 2012.

“I stay and die each pitch Jered or Jeff make in my life,” Dave instructed Corridor. “I nonetheless assume I’m sitting on the bucket calling their pitches. For me, I’m most likely much more nervous than Jered ever will probably be.”

Rising up, Jeff was the extra workmanlike of the 2 brothers, digging ditches for his father’s firm at 15 years previous, not attempting out for the varsity baseball workforce at Simi Valley Excessive Faculty till his senior yr (he threw fewer than 30 innings), and making the Fresno State workforce as a walk-on. Jered was the prodigy for whom sports activities got here rather more simply. He starred in basketball and baseball in highschool, incomes All-League and first workforce All-Los Angeles Instances honors within the latter earlier than accepting a scholarship to Lengthy Seaside State. Alongside the way in which, he acquired his first publicity to the majors, spending weeks within the summers with Jeff after he reached the present with the Tigers in 1999. “He was in a position to hold across the clubhouse, shag some balls, get somewhat thought what that is all about,” said Jeff in 2009. The age hole between the 2 was too large for them to be notably shut once they had been below the identical roof, however lastly, the brothers bonded over their devotion to baseball.

Jered put collectively a stellar collegiate profession, going 37–9 with a 2.43 ERA general and 15–1 with a 1.62 ERA and 13.3 strikeouts per 9 in 144 innings as a junior in 2004 and throwing 46 consecutive scoreless innings for Workforce USA’s school nationwide workforce the summer season earlier than. His junior yr efficiency earned him the Golden Spikes Award because the nation’s high beginner baseball participant; the Dick Howser Trophy because the nationwide collegiate baseball participant of the yr; the Roger Clemens Award (now the Nationwide Pitcher of the 12 months Award within the wake of Clemens’ scandals); and the Baseball America School Participant of the 12 months Award. He was the beginning pitcher on Baseball America’s first-team All-American squad and the publication’s high draft prospect for 2004. Through BA, Weaver’s arsenal on the time consisted of “a 91–95-mph fastball, two variations of an almost unhittable slider, a complicated really feel for pitching, [and] wonderful command and deception in his unconventional supply.”

Signability considerations precipitated Weaver, a Scott Boras shopper, to drop within the draft as he sought a package deal just like the five-year, $10.5 million main league deal of Mark Prior, the No. 2 choose in 2001. The Angels took Weaver with the twelfth choose (two spots greater than his brother, who was taken by the Tigers in 1998). Negotiations took 51 weeks, proper as much as the final hour before the signing deadline; finally, he obtained a $4 million bonus, matching that of Prior, however with out the key league portion of the deal.

Weaver cut up his first skilled season between Excessive-A Rancho Cucamonga and Double-A Arkansas, posting a 3.91 ERA and 11.3 strikeouts per 9 in 76 innings after which capping that with a visit to the Arizona Fall League. He started the 2006 season at Triple-A Salt Lake whereas his brother started the yr within the Angels’ rotation, having signed a one-year, $8.3 million free agent deal in February. “I didn’t actually need to step on his toes,” Jeff told Sports activities Illustrated’s Richard Hoffer. Jered gave him the inexperienced mild and dominated at Salt Lake to the tune of a 2.22 ERA and 10.9 strikeouts per 9 over the course of 11 begins, a stint that was interrupted by his being referred to as up when reigning AL Cy Younger winner Bartolo Colon hit the injured checklist with shoulder irritation. On Might 27, Weaver debuted with seven shutout innings towards the Orioles, permitting simply three hits and one stroll and placing out 5. He made three extra begins and was off to a 4–0 file and 1.37 ERA when the Angels despatched him again to Salt Lake to accommodate Colon’s return.

That gave Jeff, who was on his option to being torched for a 6.29 ERA in 16 begins, a short reprieve, however lower than three weeks later, in what might have rated as essentially the most awkward second of the 400-plus brother acts in main league historical past (or the 100-ish brothers-as-teammates conditions), the Angels designated Weaver the Elder for task to make room for Weaver the Youthful. “Once I noticed how properly he was pitching, and I used to be struggling to get right into a groove, I knew it was a chance,” Jeff instructed Hoffer. “It’s robust since you needed to have it final and proceed to have an opportunity to pitch with him, however on the similar time it’s a enterprise.”

Traded to St. Louis, Jeff continued to scuffle to the tune of a 5.15 ERA, however in October, Cardinals Satan Magic took over as he posted a 2.43 ERA and received three of 5 begins, capped by an eight-inning, one-run efficiency within the World Collection-clinching Sport 5 towards the Tigers. As for Jered, he picked up the place he left off, permitting simply two runs over his subsequent three turns and operating his file to 9–0 with a 1.95 ERA. He completed 11–2 with a 2.56 mark in 123 innings, good for a team-high 4.7 WAR, however he positioned a distant fifth within the AL Rookie of the yr voting, with Justin Verlander successful.

It was an auspicious starting, however given his underlying .238 BABIP and three.90 FIP, Weaver couldn’t maintain that stage. Settling into the center of the rotation, he did assist the Angels to 3 straight AL West titles from 2007 to ’09, averaging 30 begins, 183 innings, a 3.99 ERA (112 ERA+), 4.00 FIP, and a pair of.9 WAR. The final of these seasons was his greatest in that span, with a sturdy 5.8 runs per sport of offensive help serving to him to a 16–8 file to go together with his 3.75 ERA (117 ERA+) and three.5 WAR. That season featured an historic occasion: the 2 Weavers squaring off in Anaheim on June 20, turning into the eighth set of brothers to begin towards one another and simply the third within the Wild Card Period:

Jeff, who had resurfaced with the Dodgers after spending all of 2008 in Triple-A, allowed two runs in 5 innings and acquired the win; Jered, who was roughed up for six runs and 10 hits in 5.1 innings, took the loss. The latter had carried a 2.08 ERA, 3.33 FIP, and a 48-inning homerless streak into the sport however was hit for a 5.01 ERA and 4.58 FIP the remainder of the way in which. Nonetheless, it was his greatest season since his rookie marketing campaign.

The Angels didn’t make it out of the Division Collection in 2007 or ’08 towards the Purple Sox; Weaver made a five-inning, two-run begin within the former however was restricted to 2 aid innings within the latter. In 2009, the Angels slayed the Boston dragon, with Weaver delivering a two-hit, one-run effort over 7.1 innings in Sport 2 of the ALDS. After a five-inning, three-run begin in Sport 3 of the ALCS towards the Yankees, he made two additional appearances out of the bullpen, however the Bronx Bombers prevailed.

Because of an adjusted arsenal in 2010 (fewer changeups, extra curves, and most significantly an improved sinker towards which opponents batted .220), Weaver boosted his strikeout price from 19.7% to 25.7%, main the majors with 233 whiffs. He additionally upped his groundball price from 30.9% to 36% and acquired his house run price under 1.0 for the primary time. His 3.01 ERA was his lowest since his rookie season and ranked fifth within the AL, as did his career-best 3.06 FIP; he additionally set highs with 224.1 innings (third) and 5.2 WAR (fourth). That kicked off a streak of three straight seasons through which he made the AL All-Star workforce and obtained Cy Younger help, inserting fifth within the voting in 2010. The Angels, although, took a step backwards, with seasons of 80, 86, and 89 wins, none of which had been adequate to succeed in the postseason — the final of these even with the assistance of Mike Trout’s legendary efficiency as a rookie.

Weaver earned the All-Star Sport begin for the AL in 2011 on the power of an 11–4, 1.96 ERA first half, throwing a scoreless inning highlighted by a strikeout of Carlos Beltrán. He positioned second within the Cy Younger voting (a distant second, as Verlander received unanimously) after ending 18–8 with a 2.41 ERA and 6.9 WAR; these final two figures ranked second to Verlander, the ERA by a single level. Weaver grew to become the uncommon Boras shopper to signal an extension with out testing free company — 5 years and $85 million, in his case — and went 20–5 with a 2.81 ERA in 2012, main the league in wins regardless of lacking three weeks because of decrease again irritation; his ERA positioned third, his 4.3 WAR ninth. This time he completed third within the Cy Younger voting, as David Price narrowly edged Verlander.

The spotlight of that 2012 season was Weaver’s Might 2 no-hitter towards the Twins, the Angels’ second inside a 10-month span, following Ervin Santana‘s no-hitter towards Cleveland on July 27, 2011. Simply two batters reached base: Chris Parmelee within the second inning after a handed ball on strike three, and Josh Willingham within the seventh through a stroll. A charging, bare-handed pickup of a Jamey Carroll bunt by third baseman Mark Trumbo within the third inning and a operating catch of Alexi Casilla’s fly ball by proper fielder Torii Hunter for the ultimate out each helped protect the no-hitter.

Weaver had come near a no-hitter earlier than, or no less than a mixed one; on June 28, 2008 in Los Angeles, he threw six hitless innings towards the Dodgers, who nonetheless scored an unearned run through two errors (one in all them his personal, on a Matt Kemp grounder), a stolen base, and a sacrifice fly. Jose Arredondo relieved him and threw two excellent innings, however because the Angels by no means scored, they didn’t get to pitch a ninth inning to make it an official no-hitter. Given the ugly line — three walks and a success batsman to go together with these errors — it was simply as properly.

Weaver’s 2013 season rapidly hit a bump within the highway. In his second begin of the yr, on April 7, he suffered a non-displaced radial head fracture in his left elbow, sidelining him for seven weeks. He pitched properly upon returning, ending with a 3.27 ERA and three.7 WAR in 154.1 innings. It was all downhill from there, sadly, as his ERA would rise and his WAR fall in every of the subsequent 4 seasons (a development that had really begun with 2012). Underlying it was a constant decline in his fastball velocity, which was already comparatively meager to start with; he final averaged 90 mph together with his four-seamer in 2011.

Sturdy offensive help helped Weaver lead the AL in wins once more in 2014, as he went 18–9, however his 3.59 ERA merely equated to a 100 ERA+. The Angels received 98 video games and the AL West however had been swept by the Royals within the Division Collection, with Weaver’s seven-inning, two-run effort in Sport 2 going for naught. The workforce hasn’t been again to the playoffs since, making this Trout’s solely postseason look up to now.

Weaver’s 2015 (4.64 ERA, 0.5 WAR) and ’16 (5.06 ERA, -0.6 WAR, and a league-leading 37 homers allowed) had been more and more ugly, as his physique simply wouldn’t cooperate. “Hip, shoulder performance… stuff wasn’t firing like I needed to,” he told the Orange County Register’s Jeff Fletcher in 2018. “I used to be at all times throwing round some sort of nagging factor. I used to be on anti-inflammatories and attempting to make it by way of each 5 days.” Although Weaver managed 31 begins in 2016, his fastball averaged simply 83.8 mph. “There have been scared occasions,” he instructed Fletcher. “I’d have nightmares, earlier than I pitched, of getting hit within the face and stuff. You attempt throwing a 3–1 fastball 83 mph to an influence hitter. There have been occasions I threw balls hoping they didn’t come again at me. You possibly can’t pitch that manner. It’s robust.”

Even in 2016, Weaver did have his moments, resembling his three-hit shutout of the A’s on June 19 and a good 3.63 ERA (however a 4.78 FIP) over his ultimate seven begins. Nonetheless, when his contract ended, the Angels didn’t a lot as provide a minor league deal. As an alternative, Weaver signed a $3 million take care of the Padres, however even in sunny southern California, he was in for extra tough sledding. He made 9 begins, and whereas he managed a 3.91 ERA by way of his first 4, his FIP by no means acquired under 6.51. The Padres misplaced all 9 of his begins, and he allowed a number of homers in seven of them.

After the perfect of these turns — a six-inning, one-run effort towards the White Sox on Might 14 in Chicago — Weaver returned to Petco Park and retired simply two of 9 batters in a seven-run outing that raised his ERA to 7.44. Padres followers booed him off the mound, and the workforce positioned him on the IL with hip irritation (a phantom harm in accordance with Weaver). On June 22, he made a rehab begin for the Triple-A El Paso Chihuahuas. “The primary pitch of the sport, I appeared again and noticed 82 (mph, on the scoreboard) and my physique, my coronary heart and thoughts fully shut down,” Weaver instructed Fletcher. He allowed three runs in three innings, went again on the IL for an additional two months, then conceded it was time to retire. The timing was such that he’s one in all 5 former Angels on this Corridor of Fame poll, together with John Lackey, Mike Napoli, Francisco Rodríguez, and Huston Street.

Trying again at his physique of labor, statistcally Weaver had quite a bit in widespread with Cain regardless of a fastball that was about 4 clicks slower. Each had strikeout charges simply 3% above the league common (103 Okay%+), with Weaver higher at stopping walks (79 BB%+ to Cain’s 97) and Cain higher at stopping homers (92 HR%+ to 108), although it ought to be identified that park changes aren’t but constructed into our plus stats, and AT&T Park was much more homer-suppressing than Angels Stadium. Amongst pitchers with no less than 2,000 innings since 2005 (the yr Cain debuted, with Weaver following simply months later), they rank first and second for the highest normalized fly ball rate (Weaver 130 FB%+, Cain 119) and lowest normalized groundball price (Weaver 75 GB%+, Cain 85).

Weaver owns the Wild Card Period’s highest infield fly ball rate amongst pitchers with no less than 2,000 innings (13%), with Cain fourth (12.2%); in the meantime, Weaver is third in home runs per fly ball (8.9%) and Cain first (8.2%). The pair are simply behind Clayton Kershaw for the bottom BABIP of the Wild Card Period:

Cain was the extra profitable of the 2 when it comes to championships and earnings (he signed a six-year, $127.5 million extension in 2012), however Weaver obtained extra recognition within the Cy Younger voting and has the sting each in conventional won-loss data (he’s 52 video games over .500 because of good offensive help, Cain 14 video games below at 104–118 because of spotty help) and in WAR (34.6 to 29.1). Lots of their different profession numbers are related, and whereas it might be an overstatement to say the statistical resemblance is uncanny, at a time when the sport has swung more and more towards energy pitching, each are reminders that there’s a couple of path to success from a serious league mound.