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Rising contender and quantity three ranked Aleksandar Rakic will tackle arguably the highest-level fighter he has confronted when he steps into the cage in opposition to the recently-dethroned champion and No. 1-ranked Jan Blachowicz in the principle occasion of UFC Vegas 54. Right here we focus on the chances and evaluation from a betting perspective.
- When: Saturday, Could 14th, 2022, 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN2)
- The place: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, Nevada
- Line: Jan Blachowicz (+150) and Aleksandar Rakic (-170); Over 3.5 rounds (-120) and Below 3.5 rounds (-110); odds from DraftKings Sportsbook.
Jan Blachowicz
Jan Blachowicz will attempt to bounce again after having his five-fight profitable streak snapped and dropping the UFC mild heavyweight championship in convincing trend to 42-year-old Glover Teixeira (sub Rd2, 2021) in his final contest.
Blachowicz averages 3.59 important strikes landed per minute (SLpM) with a 49 p.c placing accuracy, 2.79 strikes absorbed per minute (SApM) with 53 p.c placing protection, 1.14 takedowns per quarter-hour with a 53 p.c takedown accuracy, 65 p.c takedown protection and 0.2 submissions per quarter-hour, in accordance with UFC Stats.
Previous to the loss to Teixeira, Blachowicz tallied wins over Israel Adesanya (UD, 2021), Dominick Reyes (TKO Rd, 2021), Corey Anderson (KO Rd1, 2020), Ronaldo Souza (SD, 2019) and Luke Rockhold (KO Rd2, 2019).
Aleksandar Rakic
Aleksandar “Rocket” Rakic will try to show that he’s one of the best European mild heavyweight within the UFC, essentially the most deserving of a title shot and why Jiri Prochazka might have refused to combat him.
If he is getting the title shot why did the UFC provide me two days in the past to combat him for a #1 contender combat? 🤔
— Aleksandar Rakic (@rakic_ufc) November 3, 2021
I like Czechia and your individuals, beer, historical past…
I simply don’t love your pretend Samurai. https://t.co/ZbEVax77iP— Aleksandar Rakic (@rakic_ufc) November 3, 2021
Rakic is 2 inches taller and, at 30 years of age, is 9 years youthful than Blachowicz. He averages 4.23 important strikes landed per minute (SLpM) with a 52 p.c placing accuracy, 2.23 strikes absorbed per minute (SApM) with 52 p.c placing protection, 0.75 takedowns per quarter-hour with a 25 p.c takedown accuracy, 90 p.c takedown protection and 0.2 submissions per quarter-hour, in accordance with UFC Stats.
Some argue that Rakic’s solely loss within the UFC, a cut up determination the place he completed with extra strikes than Volkan Oezdemir (2019), may have gone the opposite manner. Rakic is coming off of two victories over former title challengers in Thiago Santos (UD, 2021) and Anthony Smith (UD, 2020) and holds wins over Jimi Manuwa (TKO Rd1, 2019), Devin Clark (TKO Rd1, 2018) and Justin Ledet (UD, 2018).
Blachowicz vs. Rakic Narratives
Narratives surrounding this match up embrace the notion that Blachowicz has a considerable expertise benefit in opposition to higher-level, extra confirmed competitors, and that the person who touts “legendary Polish energy” may need extra knockout potential and a grappling benefit that would neutralize Rakic’s placing and permit him to manage the match, just like how he fought Adesanya.
Rakic backers would possibly understand Blachowicz as washed and too low quantity to maintain up with Rakic’s dynamic placing.
Blachowicz vs. Rakic Prediction
This contest options fighters who’re heading in reverse instructions, with Rakic ascending whereas Blachowicz seems to be approaching the twilight of his profession.
Blachowicz may need an influence benefit, nevertheless it’s troublesome envisioning him selecting to face and bang within the pocket with Rakic. He would possibly attempt to make use of a grappling heavy recreation plan which won’t doubtless yield a submission however may enable him to build up prime management and lengthen the competition. We’d wager over 3.5 rounds as our greatest wager if we didn’t really feel extra assured within the aspect.
However Rakic has a 90 p.c takedown protection and has not been taken down within the UFC since being taken down twice in his first combat in opposition to Francimar Barroso, a combat he received by unanimous determination in 2017. Blachowicz may have a tricky time taking Rakic down and even when he does, he won’t discover it straightforward to maintain him down.
Blachowicz tends to be plodding and slower in his actions, and if he’s unable to take or hold his opponent down, he’s more likely to get picked aside and broken by Rakic’s kicks whereas Rakic evades Blachowicz’s decrease quantity of strikes, resulting in a rising differential in important strikes, a attainable TKO in rounds 4 or 5 however extra doubtless a unanimous determination for Rakic.
Choose: Rakic -170
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