Jan Blachowicz – Keys to Victory at UFC 282 -Video Analysis

UFC 282 has seen fairly the shake-up in latest weeks. After initially being scheduled as a three-round co-main occasion, Jan Blachowicz and Magomed Ankalaev will now conflict in a five-round predominant occasion. Not solely this, however the mild heavyweight title may also be on the road.

Right here’s the whole lot that you must know in regards to the UFC 282 state of affairs:

• The unique predominant occasion was a rematch the champion. Jiri Prochazka and Glover Teixera for the belt
• The champion, Prochazka suffered a terrible shoulder injury, forcing him to be faraway from the bout and thus vacating the title
•  Glover Texeira is obtainable the combat towards Ankalaev however wished to push the combat again till January in Brail to have extra time to organize, the UFC rejected this.
• Ankalaev vs. Blachowicz is promoted from co-main occasion to the principle occasion and the 205lbs belt will probably be on the road
• Blachowicz is 6-1 in his final seven fights, dropping solely to Teixeira for the belt again in October 2021
• Ankalaev is 18-1, solely dropping to Paul Craig within the final second of a bout he was dominating

We check out how Blachowicz, a person who will enter Las Vegas because the underdog can upset these odds and are available away a two-time mild heavyweight champion.

Jan Blachowicz – Keys to Victory at UFC 282

Cease the Takedown

As former champion and now high analyst, Michael Bisping informed his Youtube channel, he favors Blachowicz over Ankalaev if he can preserve the combat standing. Bisping said:

“I really feel like Jan Blachowicz, if he can cease the takedown, the combat goes to be in his favor – however it’s going to be exhausting” after which later went on to say, “All of it comes down as to if or not Blachowicz can preserve it on the ft. If he can, I can see a knockout victory for Jan Blachowicz – or Magomed goes to take him down, attempt to outwrestle him.”

Ankalaev averages 0.94 takedowns per 15-minutes at an average of just 33%, nevertheless, the specter of the takedown is all the time there, which units up his fingers. That is one thing we’ll focus on in additional element later. First, let’s check out Ankalaev’s ‘go-to’ takedowns and the way Blachowicz might forestall him from touchdown them.

In opposition to Nikita Krylov, the Russian landed three of 9 takedowns. His first was a reactionary takedown, countering Krylov’s spinning assault and taking the combat to the ground. The second and third, nevertheless, he was in a position to get the combat to the ground utilizing an inside reap while having double under-hooks.

That is barely worrying for followers of Blachowicz. He struggled towards Texiera when the Brazillian reacted to Blachowicz’s pictures and dived for the legs. Blachowicz gave the impression to be sluggish to react to the offence of Texiera, resulting in the takedown being landed. He was largely managed within the clinch when Texiera had his first takedown try quashed, once more, someplace the place Ankalaev might look to stall and dominate. Equally, when confronted  Alexander Gustaffson, the Swede simply took Blachowicz down from the clinch with an out of doors journey.

If the combat hits the ground, that is the place Ankalaev can actually take over and this is the reason Blachowicz must do the whole lot in his energy to maintain his again off the canvas. Regardless of having a takedown defence of 66%, it’s when he does get taken down when the issue presents itself. There’s a large gap within the Polish star’s sport and it’s his defence off his again and his skill to get again to his ft.

In his final two fights, he’s been managed for a complete of 9:50 of a doable 19:13. He was taken down twice by Texiera and as soon as by Aleksandar Rakic. Wanting additional again in his profession, regardless of being a BJJ black-belt, Blachowicz was managed byGustaffson on the bottom, 10:43 of 15 full minutes had been managed by The Mauler, somebody who isn’t historically a powerful grappler.

If he’s taken down by Ankalaev, don’t be shocked to see the Russian look to carry the previous champion down for so long as he desires. He’s actually efficient at not giving his opponents area when he’s on high. Utilising his shoulder and chest strain eradicates any skill of his opponents to get area and get again to their ft. In opposition to Dalcha Lungiambula, Ankalaev was in a position to get the combat to the ground and from half guard maintained smothering shoulder strain. It allowed him to land brutal floor and pound, which pressured Lungiambula to only maintain on and keep away from harm. He was in a position to virtually get him in a crucifix place together with his robust head strain.

Blachowicz needs to be frantic in his pursuit of getting again to his ft. He all too readily provides up rounds while on his again and will see this one slipping away from him if he doesn’t tackle this flaw.

Cease the takedown and make his evening extra straight forwards… Simple, isn’t it?

Catch the Kicks and Counter off them

Regardless of coming from Dagestan, Ankalaev is an exceptional striker. He averages 3.64 vital strikes per minute, with an accuracy of 54%. He’s not solely slick within the boxing vary, however he’s a reliable kickboxer too, typically mixing it up between low, mid and excessive kicks.

In opposition to Anthony Smith final trip, the American was in a position to catch the kicks of Ankalaev a number of occasions, pulling him off stability and forcing him into a tough reset.

Jan Blachowicz is among the greatest checkers of leg kicks within the sport at present. On account of this, don’t be shocked to see Ankalaev drift away from throwing leg kicks and look to throw extra physique and excessive kicks. It will open up extra alternatives for Blachowicz to catch the kicks of Ankalaev and counter off them.

Fortunately for Blachowicz, he’s additionally efficient and counters rapidly when in kicking vary. He’s extraordinarily efficient at blocking excessive kicks and physique kicks and he must now look to counter off these catches and catch Ankalaev out.

We will see how successfully he will get each of his arms in place to dam the kick of Rakic and parry the leg again to the ground. He will get his forearms into play right here to not solely block the kick but in addition, it may’t be snug for Rakic’s shin to land on Blachowicz’s forearms and elbows.

Right here is one other instance of how he will get his guard up increased this time to be able to block the top kick providing of Israel Adesanya. Not solely does he get each of his fingers as much as block the kick and guard his head, however he additionally manages to get his lead leg into play to be able to verify a possible leg kick if Adesanya selected to go low with the strike. This did knock Blachowicz off stability, nevertheless, resulting in him falling again into the cage, one thing that we’ll take a look at him having to keep away from in a while.

Ankalaev is a slick striker, he doesn’t ever take numerous harm. We’ve got by no means seen him in an all-out conflict within the UFC and he’s by no means gave the impression to be in peril of being completed on the ft. Due to this fact, Blachowicz must do one thing totally different, to indicate the Russian one thing totally different and catch him out.

Seeking to counter will probably be helpful for Blachowicz as in latest occasions, Ankalaev hasn’t confronted a counter striker who is similar measurement as him. We all know Blachowicz can counterstrike nicely and it might play massively in his favour this weekend.

Hold his again off the fence

Arguably an important facet for the previous champion, Jan Blachowicz to think about when moving into the cage this weekend is to maintain his again off the fence. He can’t permit Magomed Ankalev to again him up, as a result of not solely does it give his opponent extra choices to assault, however it additionally limits Blachowicz’s alternatives to counter and to implement his personal gameplan.

A few of Ankalaev’s greatest work, each within the wrestling realm and on the ft takes place when he pushes his opponents again in the direction of the fence. Ankalaev is among the greatest fighters within the UFC at backing his opponents up. When he confronted Thiago Santos, we noticed simply this. Within the third spherical, Ankalaev stored Santos on the ‘outer octagon’ (indicated with the white arrow) for nearly 4 entire minutes, dictating the place the combat came about and when the exchanges began.

Sadly for Blachowicz, he tends to permit himself to be backed up most of the time. In his title combat with Teixeira, he all too simply gave up territory after attacking. He gladly took a number of steps backwards to be able to reset, slightly than circle out into area.

This, in flip, result in the Brazillian having the ability to continuously threaten the takedown and preserve Blachowicz guessing.

Equally, when Blachowicz confronted Jimi Manuwa in London, he jabbed on the backfoot however once more and was clearly conscious of the risk that Poster Boy posed. He backed up, slightly than assembly him within the mid-range and attempt to combat energy with energy. As we will see within the instance under, as quickly as Blachowicz’s again hit the fence, he was pressing in ensuring that he didn’t keep there, rapidly circling out to his proper. With that being mentioned, he nonetheless was stood within the ‘outer octagon’, a place that he can’t afford to be in towards Ankalaev.

He allowed himself to be backed up towards Adesanya too, nevertheless, this time seemed to blow up with a flying knee to be able to again his opponent up and get himself off the fence line. It is a tactic that he might use, seeking to assault off the fence, nevertheless, it will possible serve him higher to completely keep away from the state of affairs and preserve his again off the fence fully.

It’s going to be powerful for Blachowicz, one thing that the MMASucka podcast crew discussed at length on this week’s podcast, nevertheless, if he can get previous Ankalaev, it’s an enormous feather in his cap.