Jake Fraley Keeps Coming Through

Win Chance Added isn’t a terrific measure of true expertise – it’s influenced by too many components exterior a participant’s management – however finally, one of the best gamers are likely to have the very best WPAs. Final season, AL MVP Aaron Judge led all place gamers in WPA, whereas NL MVP Paul Goldschmidt completed on high within the Senior Circuit. The 12 months earlier than, it was AL MVP Shohei Ohtani who completed first general and NL MVP Bryce Harper who paced the Nationwide League. Even within the early days of the 2023 season, the WPA leaderboard is a veritable who’s who of superstars and MVP contenders. Yordan Alvarez leads all place gamers with 2.42 WPA, whereas Ronald Acuña Jr. leads the NL with 2.18. Following carefully behind within the AL is Vladimir Guerrero Jr., with 2.12 WPA to his identify.

After these three, just one different hitter has a WPA above 2.00 this 12 months, and his identify is never listed among the many likes of Alvarez, Acuña, and Guerrero. In what will likely be his first full season, 27-year-old Jake Fraley has already notched 2.10 WPA for the Cincinnati Reds.

Making Fraley’s accomplishments all of the extra spectacular, he isn’t a one-hit win chance marvel. His finest recreation by WPA (0.58 WPA on April 29) was solely the twenty third Most worthy of the season; 37 different gamers have had a recreation during which they got here inside one-tenth of a win of Fraley’s strongest efficiency. In different phrases, his finest recreation wasn’t some ridiculous outlier. As an alternative, he has come via within the clutch on quite a few events. Fraley has six video games with greater than 0.2 WPA (tied for second within the majors), 4 video games with greater than 0.3 (tied for first), and three video games with greater than 0.4 (first). He’s one in all a small handful of gamers to have earned at the least 0.1 WPA in additional than 10 video games this season, and everybody else in that group is an even bigger identify than the Reds outfielder:

I’m not right here to counsel Fraley has the legendary clutch gene. WPA isn’t a predictive stat, and even when it have been, we’re speaking a few man who posted a detrimental clutch rating over the primary 4 years of his profession; his clutch abilities are extremely suspect, and his well timed hitting is nearly definitely unsustainable. However, Fraley has been some of the worthwhile gamers within the sport via the primary seven weeks of the season, and he deserves his flowers.

The Reds aren’t contenders, however they’ve scored extra runs than half the groups within the Nationwide League, they usually couldn’t have finished so with out Fraley and his well-timed contributions. He leads the membership with 29 RBI, 11 greater than anybody else in Cincinnati. General, Fraley is tied for twenty first in baseball by way of RBI, and he ranks sixth amongst certified gamers in RBI per plate look. As you’ll be able to see, he’s in glorious firm subsequent to the 5 sluggers atop that exact leaderboard:

Fraley’s largest second this 12 months was a bat-breaking, go-ahead double down the road. He discovered himself within the scenario each child with a Wiffle bat desires about: ninth inning, two outs, bases loaded. He got here via, driving within the tying and profitable runs, and he celebrated accordingly. That is the face of a person who simply earned .636 WPA with a single swing of the bat:

Fraley entered that exact recreation as a pinch hitter, taking his first hacks to steer off the eighth. Certainly, pinch-hitting performs a pivotal position on this story. You see, Fraley has the advantage of being completely unplayable in opposition to left-handed pitchers. In his profession, he has a .138/.247/.200 slash line in opposition to lefties; this season, he has a grand whole of 1 hit and one stroll in 21 PA. As such, supervisor David Bell retains him distant from southpaws each time attainable.

Fraley has solely began 29 video games this 12 months. In his different 10 video games performed, he’s are available in off the bench after the left-handed beginning pitcher’s day was finished. He’s tied for the league lead in pinch-hitting appearances amongst certified batters, and he leads all gamers within the proportion of his plate appearances which have come as a pinch-hitter. This implies he steps to the plate much less usually within the early innings, when recreation leverage tends to be decrease. Certainly, Fraley leads certified batters within the proportion of his plate appearances coming within the sixth inning or later, which helps to clarify why he has the third-highest common leverage index within the sport. Unsurprisingly, high-leverage alternatives grow to be increasingly more plentiful as the sport goes on:

Or to place that in graph type:

To be truthful, extra high-leverage alternatives additionally imply extra possibilities to fail, however a giant hit has the potential to spice up a batter’s WPA greater than a giant out can tank it. On Opening Day, a month earlier than his go-ahead double, Fraley struck out seeking to finish the ballgame with the tying run in scoring place. The WPA hit was extreme (-0.152), but it surely’s a drop within the bucket in comparison with what he’s earned along with his most significant extra-base hits. General, Fraley has racked up 0.77 WPA in his 10 video games as a pinch-hitter, in comparison with 1.33 WPA in his 29 different appearances.

Along with his work on the plate, Fraley has come via for his workforce in methods WPA can’t measure: along with his glove and his arm. His finest defensive performs have come at some extremely opportune occasions. He’s solely made two grabs with a catch chance under 75%, however every one saved the Reds a great deal of anguish. In a mid-April contest with Tampa Bay, Fraley laid out to make an inning-ending catch. The bases have been loaded, and the Rays may have cleared them if the ball had dropped. As an alternative, Fraley saved the day and saved the Rays off the board:

Two weeks later, he made one other diving cease. The Padres had a runner in scoring place, and if Fraley hadn’t made the catch, San Diego would have taken an early lead:

Lastly, Fraley picked an ideal second for his first and solely outfield help of the season. The Marlins had tied issues up within the seventh, and a single from Peyton Burdick gave them a 4-3 lead. Nonetheless, on the exact same play, Fraley made a robust throw to nab Bryan De La Cruz at third, ending the inning and stopping the bleeding. The Reds went on to win by a one-run margin, and there’s probability Fraley’s throw made all of the distinction:

If there’s one side of his recreation the place Fraley hasn’t been so clutch, it’s baserunning. He’s a fast mover, with 79th-percentile dash velocity, 0.7 BsR, and 5 steals in six possibilities. Per Baseball Reference, he’s tied for eighth with a 67% further bases taken (XBT) proportion; the league common is 42%. Regardless of all that, solely one in all his stolen bases led to a run, and he’s scoring lower than you’d anticipate given how usually he reaches base. The common runner this season has scored about 37% of the time they’ve reached base, whereas Reds hitters have scored 35% of the time they attain base. Fraley, nonetheless, has solely scored in 31% of his alternatives. He ought to have the ability to rating extra usually going ahead, hopefully serving to to compensate for his inevitable decline in RBI.

Due to some well timed hits, sizable splits, and success with the mitt (was the third rhyme an excessive amount of?), Jake Fraley has been some of the productive gamers in baseball. It’s arduous to consider he’ll discover himself on any leaderboards with Alvarez, Acuña, and Guerrero by season’s finish, however there’s no denying he’s been a spark plug to this point.