As we head into the second day (Thursday) on the Dante Competition at York we’ve one other high afternoon of flat horse racing to look ahead to. The ITV4 cameras are additionally on the Knavesmire once more to absorb the primary 5 races, together with the Dante Stakes (3:35) – a number one Epsom Derby trial.
Andy Newton is available with all of the ITV4 York races this Thursday with key tendencies and suggestions.
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RELATED: York Races Today – See All Races at York Today: Betting, silks runners & riders
York Horse Racing Suggestions and Tendencies (ITV/RacingTV)
1.50 – Paddy Energy ‘Making Flat Much less Flat’ Handicap Cl2 5f ITV4
13/13 – Had raced at York earlier than
12/13 – Didn’t win final trip
12/13 – Had gained a minimum of 4 instances earlier than
11/13 – Had run within the final 5 weeks
11/13 – Got here from a single-figure draw
11/13 – Completed within the high 5 final trip
10/13 – Aged 6 or older
9/13 – Returned a double-figure value
7/13 – Returned between 8/1 and 16/1
7/13 – Favourites positioned
6/13 – Carried 8-10 or much less in weight
2/13 – Skilled by Tim Easterby (final 2 runnings)
1/13 – Successful favourites
Copper Knight gained the race in 2019 and 2021
2021 Winner: Copper Knight (11/2 jfav)
The Mick Appleby runner – Raasel – is a fast-improving sprinter and he seemed to have a bit extra up his sleeve final time than the top profitable margin steered. He’s attention-grabbing and ought to be ending off properly, however 11 of the final 13 winners got here from a single-figure draw – he’s drawn 11.
Alligator Alley, Digital and Bedford Flyer can all go properly, whereas the busy Tremendous Wine has been operating persistently of late and will hit the body once more. However COPPER KNIGHT @ 6/1 with William Hill has landed the final two runnings of this race appears to be like value sticking with.
Sure, he’s up 19lbs from final yr, however he progressed up the ranks once more final season and has been rated this excessive prior to now (104). Draw 7 is okay and a current run at Musselburgh can have him prepared for this.
The opposite that ticks a whole lot of the tendencies is JAWWAAL (e/w) @ 10/1 with William Hill. This Michael Dods 7 year-old is again from a break however was seventh on this race 12 months in the past and solely crushed 3 lengths. He travelled properly that day however the draw (11) seemed to go towards him within the closing levels. He’s bought a greater berth in 6 this time and can love the fast floor.
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2.25 – Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Middleton Fillies’ Stakes (Group 2) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 1m2f88y ITV4
17/17 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
15/17 – Positioned within the high 4 final trip
14/17 – Gained over 1m2f earlier than
14/17 – Favourites positioned
13/17 – Priced 7/2 or shorter within the betting
11/17 – Having first run of the season
10/17 – Successful favourites (together with 8 of final 13)
9/17 – Had gained a minimum of 4 instances earlier than
9/17 – Had raced at York earlier than
5/17 – Ran at Newmarket final trip
4/17 – Had gained at York earlier than
3/17 – Gained final trip
3/17 – Skilled by Sir Michael Stoute
2/17 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/17 – Winners from stall 1
1/17 – Irish educated winners
2021 Winner: Queen Energy (6/4 fav)
This appears to be like set to to be a battle between Sir Michael Stoute, who has two main fancies – Midday Star and Ville De Grace, and the Irish – who ship over Thunder Kiss and Forbearance.
Of that bunch, Thunder Kiss is the top-rated within the discipline and is a giant participant after a high win at Cork final trip, however is but to race outdoors G3 firm. Forbearance gained a Listed race right here final season, however the fear together with her is the drop again to 1m2f – all wins final season came to visit 1m4f+.
In order that leaves the Soute runners – Ville De Grace – and NOON STAR @ 10/3 with William Hill. The previous was shut second at HQ final trip and will likely be higher for that run, however it’s attention-grabbing that Ryan Moore, who rode her that day prefers Midday Star.
This 4 year-old was a head Listed Stakes winner at Nottingham final time over 1m2f and has now gained 3 of her final 6 races. She was additionally runer up within the Musidora Stakes right here final season so the monitor is okay, whereas Moore couldn’t be using any higher for the time being.
3.00 – Paddy Energy Hambleton Stakes (Handicap) (Listed Race) Cl1 1m ITV4
16/16 – Rated between 96-105
15/16 – Had gained over a mile earlier than
14/16 – Returned 10/1 or shorter
13/16 – Favourites positioned within the high 4
11/16 – Aged between 4-6 years-old
11/16 – Had raced within the final 6 weeks
10/16 – Got here from a single-figure draw
10/16 – Had gained a minimum of 4 instances earlier than
8/16 – Positioned final trip
7/16 – Aged 4 years-old
3/16 – Successful favourites (1 joint, 1 co)
1/16 – Gained final trip
2021 Winner: Kynren (17/2)
With ALL of the final 16 winners rated between 96-105, then the highest 5 on the cardboard – Bless Him, Brunch, Isla Kai, Cruyff Flip and What’s The Story.
Of that lot, it’s exhausting to disregard the Nigel Tinkler runner – ISLA KAI @ 5/1 with William Hill– who has solely had seven profession runs and gained 4 of them. He returned final months at Newmarket with a cracking 4th of 17 and will now be spot on for this.
Others to notice decrease down the weights are Hortzador, Redarna, La Trinidad, Lightening Firm and Trais Fluors, however CD winner – BRUNCH (e/w) @ 8/1 with William Hill – is the opposite decide. He was a neck runner-up on this 12 months in the past and appears arrange for an additional large show after good runs within the Lincoln (eighth) and the G3 Earl Of Sefton Stakes final time at Newmarket.
3.35 – Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Dante Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 1m2f88y ITV4
17/19 – Winners that went onto run within the Epsom Derby (4 gained)
15/19 – Completed third or higher final trip
13/19 – Returned 8/1 or shorter within the betting
13/19 – Had a earlier race that season
12/19 – Gained their earlier race
10/19 – Went onto be positioned within the Epsom Derby
5/19 – Had gained over 1m2f earlier than
4/19 – Went onto win the Epsom Derby
4/19 – Successful favourites
3/19 – Gained by coach Aidan O’Brien (gained it 4 instances in all)
3/19 – Gained by coach Sir Michael Stoute (gained it 6 instances in all)
3/19 – Gained by jockey Ryan Moore
3/19 – Skilled by John Gosden (3 of final 7 runnings)
3/19 – Ridden by William Buick
2/19 – Skilled by Mark Johnston (2 of final 5)
2/19 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
1/19 – Had run at York earlier than
0/19 – Winners from stall 2
Simply 2 profitable favourites within the final 14 runnings
Golden Horn (2015) was the final Dante winner to go onto win the Epsom Derby
2021 Winner: Hurricane Lane (5/1)
The James Ferguson yard have a pleasant horse on his fingers in El Bodegon, who is bound to be fashionable when punters see that his final run in October was a 1 1/2 size beating of final Sunday’s straightforward winner of the Leopardstown Derby Trial – Stone Age.
Nevertheless, that win got here on very tender floor and though that kind has been given an enormous increase this 3 year-old colt is but to race on floor faster than good-to-soft – that will be the priority.
We will’t ignore something coach Aidan O’Brien ship to put up for the time being – he landed many of the large races at Chester final week and already holds a giant hand within the Epsom Derby betting market. He runs Bluegrass right here, with Ryan Moore using. However he was solely third final trip at Leopardstown and has thus far been unplaced in each runs over 1m2f.
Masekela, for Andrew Balding, has a Derby entry and confirmed first rate kind as a 2 year-old final season, however the fear for him and likewise Royal Partronage, who beat him at HQ final Sept, is getting this longer journey.
So, the 2 that look the almost definitely to battle this out are the Gosden runner- Magisterial and the Stoute-trained Desert Crown.
The once-raced Desert Crown is @ 6/1 with William Hill for the Epsom Derby and already has a tall popularity even after simply the one run and win. That got here at Nottingham final November, however it was an attention-grabbing 5 1/2 size success. The small fear although is that got here on tender floor and he’s additionally not had a run since – whereas, most of his important rivals have been on the monitor within the final month or so.
We’ve additionally solely seen 2 profitable Dante Stakes favourites within the final 14 runnings, which might be a destructive for Desert Crown if he retains his place on the head of the market.
So, the decide is the Frankel colt – MAGISTERIAL @ 7/2 with William Hill. He will likely be fashionable with Frankie Dettori additionally using and he returned final month with a pleasant win at Leicester. He’s @ 25/1 with William Hill for the Epsom Derby – odds that may disappear if he can win this.
He’s clearly an enhancing type and with three profession runs is a good bit extra skilled than Desert Crown (1 run). He additionally seemed to have a bit up his sleeve final time at Leicester and though this can be a large step up in grade he’s bought highly effective connections that really feel he’s as much as the duty.
4.10 – British Stallion Studs EBF Westow Stakes (Listed Race) (Class 1) (3yo) 5f ITV4
10/10 – Had gained over 5f or 6f prior to now
8/10 – Gained between 1-2 instances earlier than
8/10 – Positioned within the high 5 final trip
7/10 – Ran not more than 6 instances
7/10 – Rated between 98-103
7/10 – Drawn in stall 1-5
7/10 – Irish bred
6/10 – Positioned favourites
6/10 – Had run on the monitor earlier than
5/10 – Gained final trip
3/10 – Successful favourites
3/10 – Ridden by Danny Tudhope
2021 Winner: Winter Energy (5/1)
Boonie bought as much as win by 3/4 of a size at Nottingham final trip and is barely up 4lbs for that right here. Khunan and the one CD winner within the discipline – Venture Dante – might be thought-about too.
Nevertheless, the Aidan O’Brien yard have a promising sprinter on their fingers in KING OF BAVARIA @ 15/8 with William Hill, who was final seen operating properly in a Listed race at Navan. Prioer to that he gained each begins and though the drop again to 5f may not be completely ideally suited having stayed on properly the final day over 5 1/2f, he’s proven loads of velocity to deal with it.
Of the remaining, a saver on LAST CRUSADER (e/w) @ 10/1 with William Hill too with jockey Danny Tudhope having gained two of the final 4 runnings of this. He ran properly at Group degree final season so this drop right into a Listed race will assist and will likely be fitter for a return run at HQ final month.
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York Horse Racing Occasions and Race Card: Thurs twelfth Might 2022
- 1:50 – Paddy Energy ‘Making Flat Much less Flat’ Handicap Cl2 (4yo+ 0-105) 5f ITV4
- 2:25 – Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Middleton Fillies’ Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 (4yo+) 1m2½f ITV4
- 3:00 – Paddy Energy Hambleton Handicap Cl2 (4yo+) 1m ITV4
- 3:35 – Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Dante Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 (3yo) 1m2½f ITV4
- 4:10 – British Stallion Studs EBF Westow Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 (3yo) 5f ITV4
- 4:45 – Frank Whittle Partnership EBFstallions.com Maiden Stakes (GBB Race) Cl2 (2yo) 6f RTV
- 5:20 – Fidomoney Handicap Cl3 (4yo+ 0-90) 2m½f RTV
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