It’s Never Opposite Day With Framber Valdez on the Mound

That is Leo’s first piece as a FanGraphs contributor. Leo is a Philadelphia sports activities fan, however he lives in Toronto, which means he’s subjected to the agony of watching Joe Carter’s 1993 World Sequence-winning walk-off house run replayed on a loop each single time he attends a Phillies sport. However, his love of the sport has persevered. He has written for websites throughout the net, together with Baseball Prospectus, Contained in the Phillies, PitcherList, and The Good Phight. He’s additionally a comedy author and sometimes tries his hand at mixing baseball and humor. Typically it goes properly; typically his work known as “unhealthy satire” and “a waste of time.”

Cease me in case you’ve heard this one earlier than, however Framber Valdez is having a historic season.

Earlier this yr, Justin Choi wrote about Valdez and his historic groundball-to-fly ball ratio by means of the primary six weeks of the season. Valdez has at all times been good at inducing groundballs and limiting fly balls, however his 10.00 GB/FB ratio over his first seven begins was on one other stage.

Unsurprisingly, Valdez himself was on one other stage, too. By means of Might 18, he posted a 2.93 ERA and three.33 FIP in 40 innings pitched. His journey from middle-relief prospect to top-of-the-rotation starter was full. Groundballs have been at all times his tremendous energy, and fly balls had lengthy been his kryptonite, so it made excellent sense he was thriving after growing his GB/FB ratio. Since mid-Might, nevertheless, his GB/FB ratio has slowly been coming again to Earth. It now sits at 4.20, which continues to be glorious to make certain, however not precisely sky-scraping. But Valdez continues to be having a historic season – simply another way.

On Sunday afternoon, the Houston Astros left-hander made his twenty fifth consecutive high quality begin, setting a brand new main league report. Certain, high quality begins aren’t the strongest metric for evaluating beginning pitchers, however that’s irrelevant right here. You don’t make 25 straight high quality begins (and counting) in case you aren’t pitcher. Certainly, Valdez has been unbelievable this season. He made his first All-Star group, set a giant league report, and blossomed into one of many perfect pitchers within the American League.

But it’s now not merely due to his elite groundball-to-fly ball ratio. He nonetheless leads the league in that metric, however since mid-Might, his GB/FB ratio has been noticeably decrease than his profession common. He’s permitting fewer balls on the bottom and extra balls within the air, however he has discovered a strategy to stop these balls within the air from hurting him. What’s his secret?

He’s defending the other subject. Over his previous 12 begins, Valdez has been permitting considerably much less reverse subject contact, particularly on balls hit within the air. Thus far, this plan of motion has yielded super outcomes:

Most pitchers are likely to get higher outcomes on reverse subject contact and worse outcomes on pulled contact. Valdez, nevertheless, is the opposite manner round (what number of synonyms for “reverse” can I discover earlier than this text is finished?). Reverse subject contact has lengthy been an issue for him. All through his profession, he has been one of many worst pitchers in baseball on balls hit the opposite manner. However on pulled balls, the reverse is true. Since Valdez made his debut, no pitcher (minimal 300 balls in play) has allowed a decrease batting common, slugging, or wOBA on pull contact:

Valdez has been capable of survive regardless of his uncommon weak point by limiting reverse subject contact in favor of pull-side hitting. In 2021, solely 19% of balls put in play in opposition to him went to the other subject. Greater than half the time, these batted balls fell for successful, however Valdez might shoulder that burden as a result of he allowed reverse subject contact a lot much less usually than the common pitcher. This yr, the southpaw has taken it up a notch. Since July 9, his reverse subject contact charge has been steadily dropping. Increasingly more of the balls put in play in opposition to him are being pulled or hit straight up the center. By means of the primary three months of the season, Valdez allowed an reverse subject share of 24.7%, proper round league common. Since then, simply 14.9% of balls put in play in opposition to him have gone the opposite manner. That determine ranks first within the AL by a large margin.

For many pitchers, this could represent a catastrophe, however that is Framber Valdez we’re speaking about. The person thrives on pulled contact. Since his reverse subject share began dropping, he ranks second amongst AL pitchers in innings pitched and fourth in WAR. Each single one in every of his outings, as we all know, has been a high quality begin. He’s averaging over seven innings pitched per look.

Within the first half of the yr, he allowed 14 runs to attain on balls hit to the other subject. Since then, he has allowed two. It’s no surprise he has been capable of pitch deeper into video games.

Maybe most spectacular of all, Valdez has not allowed a single reverse subject house run since July 3. Within the first three months of the season, he allowed 4. In fact, a few of that may be chalked as much as luck – Valdez has nonetheless allowed a number of arduous hit fly balls to the other subject, and ultimately a kind of goes to go over the fence – however by maintaining the pattern small, he has put himself ready to learn from such success.

And talking of excellent fortune, Valdez ranks third amongst all pitchers in Outs Above Common whereas he’s on the mound. He has benefitted from terrific protection behind him, extra so than nearly another pitcher in baseball. Some would possibly chalk that as much as good administration or just good luck, however on this case, Valdez additionally deserves some credit score as a result of he’s pitching in such a manner as to assist guarantee good defensive outcomes.

The kind of contact Valdez permits differs relying on how his protection is about up. When the Astros are lined up in a conventional style (i.e. no shift), his reverse subject share isn’t all that a lot decrease than league common (it has stayed constant all through the season). However when Houston has a shift on, Valdez has discovered to closely restrict reverse subject contact:

When the Astros are shifting, Valdez nearly by no means permits a ball to go the opposite manner. Meaning his protection can focus nearly completely on the pull aspect of the sector. And it’s working. Since July 9, balls hit up the center or pulled into the shift in opposition to Valdez have a puny .186 wOBA – and people batted balls make up 90% of the contact he has allowed in that point. That’s outstanding. Valdez has a terrific group of fielders behind him, and he has discovered to pitch in tandem with them. All in all, it’s an amazing recipe for fulfillment.

And now that we all know the recipe, it’s time to consider the components. What’s Valdez doing otherwise to realize these outcomes?

Effectively, to make my job an entire lot simpler, Valdez carried out a change to his arsenal proper across the similar time his reverse subject contact charge started to drop. In July, his new slider/cutter grew to become a way more important a part of his pitch combine, particularly in opposition to left-handed batters:

The pitch, which some sources classify as a slider and others have as a cutter, was a brand new one for Valdez this season. He launched it early within the yr, simply attempting it out at first and slowly getting extra comfy with it over the primary three months of the season. Extra just lately, it has grow to be a serious weapon. His slider/cutter charge since July 9 is double what it was over the primary three months of the season. He has even began to throw it extra frequently in opposition to right-handed batters.

And what have you learnt? Because it seems, opponents nearly by no means hit Valdez’s cutter/slider to the other subject. You can in all probability depend on one hand the variety of these pitches opposing batters have hit the opposite manner. This pitch goes a great distance in explaining how Valdez has been capable of restrict reverse subject contact from left-handers:

As for right-handed hitters, who Valdez is more likely to face anyhow, the state of affairs is a bit more sophisticated. There isn’t one clear change in his arsenal, however he has been throwing a couple of extra curveballs, changeups, and slider/cutters in opposition to righties over the second half of the season. All three of these pitches have been extra more likely to end in pulled contact. As well as, Valdez is throwing his sinker somewhat bit much less, and his sinker tends to consequence within the extra reverse subject contact than his different pitches.

Past altering up his pitch combine, Valdez has additionally been altering up his pitch places. Particularly, he has been throwing each his sinker and his changeup nearer to the within of the plate in opposition to righties. As widespread knowledge tells us, hitters are much less more likely to ship inside pitches to the other subject.

There may be extra to Framber Valdez’s new strategy in opposition to righties than a modest drop in fastball utilization and a slight shift in the direction of the within fringe of the plate, but when there’s, you’d higher imagine Valdez and the Houston Astros are maintaining that secret near the vest. This new strategy has been understanding phenomenally properly for them so far. Nonetheless he’s doing it, it’s clear Valdez is altering his sport plan to induce much less reverse subject contact, and it’s clear that it’s working.