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It has been repeated so typically, it virtually goes with out saying: when Shohei Ohtani stole his fiftieth base and hit his fiftieth house run of the season final Thursday in Miami, he did one thing no participant within the historical past of Main League Baseball had ever finished earlier than.
Or did he?
When Main League Baseball incorporated the “official” statistics of Negro League players in Could courting again to 1920, the league acknowledged these statistics had been incomplete. Researchers estimate that the 1920-48 Negro Leagues data are about 75 % full. What mysteries lie in that further 25 %?
Dodgers Nation put that query to Adam Darowski, the Govt Director of Design & Product Administration for Sports activities Reference, which has included accessible Negro Leagues stats into Baseball Reference.
In an try and make a numerical estimate for the highest 50/50 candidates within the Negro League document ebook, Darowski cited all gamers who recorded a 10-homer, 10-steal season within the Baseball Reference database and prorated their numbers to a 154 sport tempo.
Right here’s what — or slightly, who — he discovered:
“It’s onerous to know what number of non-league video games they performed,” Darowski famous. “However at the least this offers an thought of the tempo. Charleston nonetheless looks like the most effective candidate.”
Two issues are price noting right here.
For one, the lacking knowledge is just not evenly distributed. That’s why now we have document of 99 video games Willie Wells performed in 1929 and solely 46 video games Mule Suttles performed in 1930.
For one more, Suttles might need performed extra video games in 1930 than Wells did in 1929. MLB made the acutely aware determination to incorporate solely stats these gamers compiled in opposition to different Negro League groups. However in-season “barnstorming excursions” had been extra widespread then for financial causes. As MLB.com’s Anthony Castrovince explains:
Due to the occasions, Negro Leagues groups typically needed to resort to barnstorming exhibitions to maintain the enterprise afloat or reduce their seasons brief after they had been out of competition, resulting in erratic league schedules.
That doesn’t imply that Charleston, for instance, didn’t truly get to 50-50 in 1927. It simply means MLB may not have counted all of the video games during which he racked up homers and steals. American and Nationwide League groups performed non-league video games in-season too for a time, however that apply was discontinued by the tip of the twentieth century.
So the reply to our authentic query — is Ohtani’s 2024 season truly the primary 50-50 season in MLB historical past — is a dissatisfying “so far as we all know.” Even our 154-game projections for the most effective Negro League gamers are considerably unfair. Ohtani himself was on tempo for 52 homers and 31 steals by the Dodgers’ first 84 video games.
Ohtani might need had firm within the 50-50 membership already if gamers like Charleston had been allowed to play 162-game seasons in league play. Or, higher but, in the event that they had been allowed to play in opposition to white gamers.
Picture Credit score: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Pictures
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