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1. For the primary time in over three months, the Boston Celtics aren’t at the very least tied for first place within the Jap Convention. Nicely, truly, they’re. It’s type of difficult.
With Boston’s loss on the New York Knicks, the Milwaukee Bucks have moved previous the Celtics by way of win proportion. That sees Boston with out the NBA’s greatest report and in second place within the convention for the primary time for the reason that fall.
Now, it’s quibbling a bit, as a result of solely .007 separates the Celtics and the Bucks in successful proportion. However the primary takeaway is that Boston has work to do. They aren’t going to coast to the highest seed within the playoffs. That was most likely by no means going to occur.
That mentioned, this wasn’t some catastrophe loss. The Knicks are good. They’ve been good for a few months now. As soon as New York stopped throwing away video games within the ultimate 5 minutes, their season circled.
The Celtics misplaced and so they’re not atop the East. However the season didn’t finish on Monday night time, regardless of how many individuals are appearing prefer it did.
We’re going to do one thing slightly completely different right here. There aren’t any clips at the moment, as a result of does anybody really want to see the Celtics miss a ton of open three-pointers once more? There are causes Boston misplaced and there are positively not causes Boston misplaced. We’re going to interrupt them down, in try to color a extra cheap image of the sport with a good thing about a number of hours later and a full re-watch.
Not Causes Boston Misplaced
1. The officers.
Let’s get this one out of the way in which first, because it’s certain to be probably the most unpopular one of many bunch. The Celtics didn’t lose due to the refs.
Sure, fouls had been 22-11. Sure, New York outshot Boston 34-14 in free throw makes an attempt. And, sure, there have been even some unhealthy calls.
However having watched the sport twice, the Knicks had been the aggressors. From the bounce, New York was targeted on getting within the lane to create scoring alternatives. Boston was content material to cross across the perimeter and take three-pointers.
Within the first quarter alone, the place the tone for the sport was set, the Celtics took 12 three-pointers (making only one, however extra on that later) and simply seven pictures within the paint.
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The Knicks took solely six three-pointers and took 13 pictures within the paint, together with eight instantly on the rim.
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That’s principally a totally reverse shot chart. The Knicks, led by Jalen Brunson and Julius Randle, additionally repeatedly drove to the basket (extra on that later too!). For the complete sport, New York had nearly twice as many drives as Boston did. Issues balanced out a bit, so far as the shot profile went, however for the sport as an entire, the Celtics took loads of spot-up and pullup jumpers, whereas the Knicks hunted for contact.
One last item: There isn’t any bias towards the Celtics from the officers, as far too many Celtics followers instructed throughout all types of social media. By 1 / 4 of the season, Boston permits the fewest free throw makes an attempt per sport within the league. They’re tied for 23rd in fouls dedicated per sport. Even adjusting for the Celtics comparatively sluggish tempo, Boston is 28th within the NBA in opponent’s free throw makes an attempt.
It’s irritating as a result of the sport earlier than this one for Boston was on the Philadelphia 76ers. The Sixers draw loads of fouls, and the Celtics play into that with their technique of constructing Joel Embiid earn factors on the line vs giving up straightforward layups and dunks.
Which means in consecutive video games, Boston was on the opposite aspect of a large free throw disparity. The 76ers sport was, partially, by design. The Knicks sport simply type of occurred, as a result of New York willed it to occur and the Celtics allow them to. However nothing means that’s there any sort of bias or conspiracy. If something, the numbers appear to level within the different path.
Additionally, blaming the officers for each loss is tiresome and ridiculous conduct. It’s additionally extremely hypocritical to snort on the Los Angeles Lakers for it, after which turning round and mimicking that precise conduct a number of weeks later.
2. The trouble.
It’s fairly straightforward to see when Boston is enjoying with little effort or low power. This wasn’t that. They only weren’t enjoying effectively. On the nights when the trouble is unhealthy, the opponent will get loads of open and wide-open pictures. Or the Celtics get crushed on the glass. Neither of these issues occurred.
The Celtics had some breakdowns defensively and offensively they couldn’t make a jumper to avoid wasting their lives. However the effort was superb. It was only a night time of unhealthy play.
3. Jayson Tatum the basketball participant.
Tatum turned in one other superb all-around sport. He had 9 assists (towards 4 turnovers, which isn’t unhealthy) and 7 rebounds. Tatum’s particular person protection was additionally fairly good towards each Julius Randle (on switches) and RJ Barrett (on straight-up performs).
The place the place Tatum fell quick was as a scorer, however we’ll get to that subsequent.
Causes Boston misplaced
1. Jayson Tatum the scorer.
Tatum has struggled for the reason that All-Star break. He’s shot 36.7% from the ground and simply 24.1% from behind the arc within the three video games for the reason that break. That poor capturing has seen Tatum drop to 21 factors per sport over these three video games, which is down from his season common of 30.1 factors.
It’s a droop and a extremely tough one. It’s not all that completely different from the three-game stretch in mid-November the place Tatum shot even worse from the sector.
On the plus aspect, Tatum can now affect video games when his shot isn’t falling. However Boston wants his shot to fall. Particularly in video games when Jaylen Brown isn’t enjoying. The Celtics aren’t an excellent heliocentric crew like some others are, however they want their star to determine it out. It’s too exhausting to win in any other case.
The excellent news? Historical past tells us that after these slumps, Tatum tends to go on a scorching streak the place he can’t miss for weeks.
2. The capturing.
It was extra than simply Jayson Tatum having an off night time from the surface. Boston hit solely 21.4% of their three-pointers. That didn’t cease them from taking half of their pictures from behind the arc. However the course of to get these pictures was nice. They aren’t appears you really need guys passing up. It’s not like Rob Williams instantly began launching threes off the dribble or one thing. These had been good shooters, lacking good pictures.
Right here’s the true killer: Boston generated 16 open three-pointers and 19 wide-open three-pointers. That’s nice!
Boston made a complete of eight of these 35 pictures. That’s not so nice!
Tatum was 1-for-9. Marcus Good was 2-for-7. Derrick White was 0-for-5. Sam Hauser was 0-for-3. Even Malcolm Brogdon was a contact underneath his ordinary capturing at 2-for-5.
It’s a cliché to say it’s a “make or miss league”, nevertheless it’s additionally true. Boston bought attractiveness for good shooters. They only didn’t make them.
3. Perimeter protection
This one is straightforward, so we’ll hold it easy. The Celtics allowed the Knicks ballhandlers to get the place they needed all night time lengthy. Jalen Brunson did it with craft and guile. Julius Randle did it by bullying his technique to his spots. Immanuel Quickley did it by honor his title together with his quickness. RJ Barrett was explicit efficient, however he slithered by way of defenders to arrange good pictures too.
A few of that’s going to occur. Brunson and Randle are All-Star degree guys. Attending to their spots is what they do. However the Celtics made it method too straightforward on them for many of the night time.
It’s no actual shock that the handful of instances Boston made a run, it got here on the again of getting stops. And people stops got here from bogging down the Knicks offense by pressuring the ballhandlers.
The Celtics protection is excellent, so we’ll chalk this as much as an off night time on that finish of the ground too. But it surely’s one thing to control, because the groups Boston might want to beat within the postseason all have good on-ball creators.
4. Rotations.
Mike Muscala bought instantly thrown into the hearth with out a lot as a apply with the Celtics. He performed 15, 17 and 44 minutes in his first three video games with Boston. After that marathon run in that bizarre sport in Milwaukee, Muscala was inactive for the ultimate sport earlier than the All-Star break. Then he was a DNP-CD within the first two video games out of the break.
On Monday, it appeared like Joe Mazzulla solely went to Muscala as a change-up after Blake Griffin was ineffective within the first half. Given how efficient Muscala was within the first few video games with Boston, it’s odd that he’s not performed a lot since.
Past that, Mazzulla was clearly looking out all through this sport and attempting stuff, however he’s changing into overly reliant on Rob Williams. In seven of Williams’ final eight video games, he’s performed at the very least 25 minutes. The one exception was once more that bizarre Milwaukee sport the place Williams got here off the bench for causes that stay unknown.
Williams is nice, however he’s greatest in shorter stints. In most video games the place Williams pushes, or performs greater than, half-hour, his effectiveness falls. And it actually falls off the following sport.
The Celtics have the depth up entrance to maintain Williams round 24 minutes most nights. An enormous a part of that ought to contain enjoying Muscala, particularly on nights when nobody could make a shot.
What’s Subsequent
1. The Celtics will probably be dwelling in Boston for 4 of their subsequent 5 video games. The problem? 4 of these 5 video games are towards playoff groups within the East (Cleveland at dwelling and on the street, Brooklyn and New York in Boston). And the Portland Trail Blazers are preventing for his or her postseason lives.
That’s a troublesome stretch, even when many of the video games are in Boston. And it’s crucial that the Celtics profit from the house video games. That run is adopted by a six-game street journey that may see Boston journey from Atlanta to Sacramento in an 11-day span.
It’s successful time for the Celtics. Their cushion atop the Jap Convention is gone. Issues are removed from dire, but when Boston doesn’t need to go to Milwaukee for a Sport 7 this spring, they should care for their very own enterprise of the season’s final 40 days.
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