I Think Lawrence Butler Is Pretty Good

If I’ve discovered something from the brand new Statcast bat monitoring information, it’s that bat pace alone isn’t adequate to supply a high-quality main league hitter. Johnathan Rodriguez, Trey Cabbage, Zach Dezenzo, Jerar Encarnacion — all of those guys, at this early stage of their main league careers, swing onerous however miss tougher. Bat pace solely issues if you make contact.

Whenever you do hit the ball, nevertheless, it’s good when your swing is as quick as potential. Swinging quick whereas making good contact more often than not — it’s onerous to do, but when you are able to do it, you’re most likely top-of-the-line hitters in baseball.

The rationale it’s uncommon is as a result of these two variables — swinging onerous and making stable contact — are negatively correlated. As some most likely keep in mind from when these stats initially dropped, Luis Arraez swings the slowest and squares up every little thing, whereas Giancarlo Stanton swings the quickest however seldom connects. A sluggish swing is a extra exact swing, and so the group of hitters who can swing exactly whereas letting it rip are unusual.

So as to decide who these uncommon hitters are, it’s essential to pick out some arbitrary cutoffs. I’ve picked hitters who’ve roughly eightieth percentile bat speeds and fiftieth percentile squared-up per swing charges. (A “squared-up” swing is one the place a hitter maximizes their exit velocity.) Right here is the entire checklist of hitters who common over 74 mph of bat pace and have at the very least a league-average squared-up price: Yordan Alvarez, Gunnar Henderson, Manny Machado, William Contreras, Juan Soto, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and… Lawrence Butler???

Sure, Lawrence Butler, a man who received despatched down in mid-Might after hitting .179/.281/.274 in his first 120 plate appearances, is a member of this unique checklist. Since returning to the majors on June 18, he’s been the seventh-best hitter in baseball, slashing .307/.341/.622 and posting a 169 wRC+ over his 270 plate appearances coming into play Thursday. How is he doing this?

For probably the most half, it looks as if Butler is dominating by fixating on the underside of the zone. I don’t know if that is tremendous unusual, however Butler has zero hits on pitches on the very prime of the zone this season. Practically all of his harm is targeting pitches down the center and on the knees.

The warmth maps make this clear. Here’s a map of Butler’s slugging per pitch by zone:

These location-based tendencies suggest that Butler would have a large uppercut swing, however my eyes (and the information) counsel in any other case. In keeping with SwingGraphs, Butler’s common vertical bat angle of 28.6 levels in August ranked in simply the twenty fifth percentile of steepness. (Aaron Judge, for comparability, was within the 98th percentile with a median VBA of 40.7.) As Esteban Rivera wrote in an excellent post on Jackson Merrill from final month, hitters usually must “make use of a flatter swing path on the prime of the zone and a steeper one on the backside.” However Butler is defying this precept, crushing line drives off low pitches along with his flattish swing.

When Butler does join, he usually exhibits an excellent spray tendency. His singles are distributed fairly evenly throughout the sector, and his house runs are clustered within the right-center hole. He isn’t dishonest for his energy; as a substitute, he’s leaning on his energy to hit balls out to the deepest components of the park.

Butler’s stage swing aircraft and all-fields method might contribute to his potential to maximise high quality contact whereas swinging onerous. By maintaining his bat comparatively flat by way of the zone, Butler offers himself a greater likelihood to make contact in comparison with a hitter with a steeper uppercut. And by seeking to drive the ball by way of the center of the sector quite than looking for out pull energy, he will get somewhat bit of additional time to resolve whether or not to swing.

Regardless of the motive, Butler’s numbers are fairly outstanding. Coming into play Thursday, Butler is hanging out simply 19.6% of the time since returning to the majors in mid-June. Amongst his fellow hitters slugging at the very least .600 over that very same timeframe, solely three are hanging out much less usually: Guerrero, Bobby Witt Jr., and Alvarez. Butler’s bodily energy and refined method during the last two and a half months are resulting in outcomes that counsel he can, at the very least for a stretch, grasp with the perfect hitters within the sport.

In fact, Butler is simply 24 and spent massive chunks of his season navigating the Pacific Coast League. (I occurred to see him crush a house run simply contained in the left-field foul pole in Tacoma earlier this yr, prompting questions on what he was doing there.) To some extent, he’s a piece in progress, and pitchers will make their inevitable changes. Throwing him pitches excessive within the zone is one apparent assault plan for any pitcher. For no matter motive, he hasn’t executed a lot in opposition to pitches in that location.

Butler has additionally proven some weak point in opposition to sure pitch varieties. In opposition to sinkers, he’s put up a -6 run worth. He’s taken a bunch of them for known as strikes from each righties and lefties, and when he makes contact, he’s usually pounding it straight into the bottom. Maybe it is a draw back of a flat swing path — if Butler places his four-seamer swing on a sinker, it units him up completely to hit a floor ball. A lefty with a demonic sinker like Framber Valdez, in different phrases, is Butler’s nightmare matchup.

Changeups, in the meantime, look like the go-to pitch for pitchers seeking to induce a swing-and-miss. Butler is whiffing on 40% of changeups he swings at, by far his highest whiff price on any given pitch sort. This tracks with Butler’s fixation on the center and backside of the zone. If he’s searching low fastballs, as an illustration, a changeup is the right pitch to throw to get him off steadiness and out in entrance.

When pitchers inevitably alter, it doesn’t appear unreasonable to imagine he can counter. On softer velocity close to the highest of the zone, he has proven he’s able to placing a Merrill-like uppercut swing to inflict harm. And I’ve seen swings the place he exhibits the type of bat path variability reflective of a participant with a reasonably good hit device.

That pitch was fairly far exterior, permitting Butler to increase his arms, however it hints at what a possible swing on excessive pitches may appear to be. Despite the fact that at this level in his profession it doesn’t look snug, the comparatively flat start line means the adjustment may not be as troublesome.

Butler’s weaknesses aren’t actually price dwelling on an excessive amount of. Once more, he was despatched down in Might of this yr. And as just lately as 2022, he was hanging out 31.5% of the time in Excessive-A. In June of 2023, Tess Taruskin expressed concern about Butler’s “in-zone swing-and-miss” points and skill to play the outfield — but additionally noticed the define of a future Butler breakout in his early-season strikeout price reductions.

“Assuming Butler stays wholesome for all of 2023, his flirtation with a greater method exhibits promising indicators of blossoming right into a full-blown romance,” Tess wrote. Quick ahead a yr, and never solely has Butler lowered his swing-and-miss sufficient to keep up a median strikeout price, he’s even holding his personal in proper discipline, grading out as roughly common by Baseball Savant’s OAA metric.

It’s been some time for the reason that A’s developed a top quality place participant, however to my eyes, it appears to be like like Butler could possibly be higher than simply high quality. He’s 24 years outdated, enjoying an honest proper discipline, and slugging like top-of-the-line gamers within the sport. On the very least, I feel he’s fairly good.