How hard is the Seattle Seahawks’ 2023 schedule compared to 2022?

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Two weeks in the past immediately, the 2023 NFL common season schedule was launched, and followers internationally instantly began analyzing it, circling key matchups, and complaining in regards to the disservice the league’s schedule makers did to their favourite staff.

Seahawks followers included.

Now that a lot of the mud has settled, I believed it may be enjoyable to match this year’s schedule to final yr’s schedule – in an total sense.

First issues first although, let’s have a look at how NFL schedules are constructed . . .

Six video games towards division rivals – two per staff, house and away.
4 video games towards groups from a division inside the staff’s convention (decided on a rotation foundation) with two house video games and two highway video games.
4 video games towards groups from a non-conference division (rotation foundation); two house video games, two away video games.
Two video games towards groups from the opposite two divisions inside a staff’s convention (one house, one away), with matchups decided by the earlier yr’s division finishes (1 vs. 1, 2 vs. 2, 3 vs. 3, and 4 vs. 4).
One recreation towards a staff from a non-conference division; matchups are primarily based on division rankings from the earlier season (once more, 1 vs. 1, 2 vs. 2, and so forth.).

Word: The final two bullets are what differentiates Seattle’s 2022 schedule (which was primarily based on a 4th-place end in 2021) from their 2023 schedule (which relies on final yr’s 2nd-place end) when evaluating the Seahawks’ schedule(s) to the schedules of their division rivals.

The opposite 14 video games are basically the identical for every staff within the division.

Now that we have now the components, let’s have a look at how the schedule broke down for the Seahawks final yr, on a division foundation:

6 video games towards the NFC West
4 video games towards the NFC South
4 video games towards the AFC West
1 recreation vs. an NFC East opponent (New York Giants)
1 recreation vs. an NFC North opponent (Detroit Lions)
1 recreation vs. an AFC East staff (New York Jets)

And right here’s the division breakdown for the Seahawks in 2023:

6 video games towards the NFC West
4 video games towards the NFC East
4 video games towards the AFC North
1 recreation towards an NFC North opponent (Detroit Lions)
1 recreation towards an NFC South opponent (Carolina Panthers)
1 recreation towards an AFC South staff (Tennessee Titans)

Now that we have now the division breakdown, let’s do a comparability of the 2 schedules; once more, from an total perspective. We’ll begin with the division video games, then have a look at the “frequent” video games, and end with the “non-common” video games.

Division Video games

That is clearly the guts of Seattle’s schedule. Division video games are all the time robust, even when rivals have down years.

As however one instance, the Seahawks beat a sure division rival by a mixed 7 factors final yr. And let’s not overlook that . . .

Three of the rival’s greatest stars had been in avenue garments for each video games;
It took a 10-play, 75-yard landing drive that began with 2:56 remaining within the recreation and a 4th-down interception by Cody Barton to seal the first win; and
The second win required additional time.

The toughness of division video games however, it may very well be argued that this yr’s division video games must be simpler for the Seahawks than final yr’s had been.

For 3 causes:

One. Heading into final season, all three of Seattle’s division opponents had been coming off of playoff appearances, two of them had met within the NFC Championship recreation, and one in every of them was the defending Super Bowl champion.

This yr, the one NFC West opponent that’s coming off of a playoff berth is the 49ers.

In the meantime, the Rams had the worst Tremendous Bowl hangover ever (minus 7 video games within the standings), and the Cardinals completed the 2022 season with the Third-worst file within the league (behind solely the Bears and Texans).

Two. Report-wise, Seattle’s 2023 division opponents enter the season 11 video games beneath the place their mark was coming into the 2022 season with the Rams, Cardinals, and Niners combining to go 33-18 in 2021 earlier than falling to a mixed 22-29 final yr.

Three. On paper, the Seahawks seem to have improved greater than their division rivals – maybe much more than their division rivals mixed. (solely barely hyperbolic)

Widespread Video games

These are the 4 video games towards one other NFC division and the 4 video games towards an AFC division – i.e., all 4 NFC West groups play every of those groups.

Final yr, it was the NFC South and the AFC West

This yr it’s the NFC East and AFC North.

2022

The NFC West’s frequent opponents mixed for a 72-64 file in 2021 after which flipped that consequence by going 64-72 in 2022.

NFC South

Being swept by the NFC South groups final yr HURT. Particularly when these 4 groups completed a mixed 10 video games beneath .500, with their “greatest” staff ending the yr with an 8-9 file after which getting pummeled in the wild card round.

AFC West

The Seahawks began the season by successful the sport that loads of 12s had circled, topping the Broncos in Russell Wilson’s return to Seattle – and in entrance of a nationwide viewers on ‘Monday Night time Soccer,’ no much less.

In between a 14-point highway win vs. the Chargers (Week 7) and a corresponding 14-point highway loss to the Chiefs (Week 16), the Seahawks misplaced to the Raiders by 6.

~~Enjoyable~~ Miserable Reality: Josh Jacobs’ back-breaking additional time landing run in Week 12 lined greater than 3x as many yards (86) as Seattle’s main rusher (K9) had for the sport (26). Nope, I’m not nonetheless bitter about that one.

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2023

The NFC West’s frequent opponents this yr completed final season a mixed 29 video games over .500 (!!!).

Let that sink in for a second.

NFC East

The NFC East was the very best division in soccer final yr, by a cushty margin.

Every NFC East staff completed the 2022 season at .500 or greater.

Three of the 4 NFC East groups made the playoffs, and one in every of them (the Eagles) represented the NFC within the Tremendous Bowl.

Oh, and none of them seem to have gotten worse through the offseason.

AFC North

Word: The odd variety of video games is as a result of Bengals having solely performed 16 common season video games final yr.

The AFC North was the NFL’s second-best division final yr – one recreation forward of the AFC East, however 5 full video games behind the NFC East.

Two of the 4 groups (Cincinnati and Baltimore) made the playoffs final yr.

Non-Widespread Video games

These are the three video games versus groups that our division rivals did / do not play.

2022

Seattle’s 4th-place end in 2021 matched them up towards 4th-place groups from the NFC East, NFC North, and AFC East.

Groups: Detroit + the 2 New Jersey groups
Mixed file earlier yr: 11-39-1
Mixed file in 2022: 25-25-1
Seattle’s file versus: 3-0

It’s fairly spectacular that Seattle’s non-common opponents final yr received 14 extra video games than that they had the earlier season.

And but, the Week 4 shootout versus the Lions (48-45) was the one shut recreation of the three . . . Seattle beat the Giants by 14 and the Jets by 17.

What could have stood out essentially the most about these three groups in 2022 was the unevenness of their seasons:

The Jets began the season 5-2, cut up their subsequent 4 video games, then dropped their ultimate six to finish the yr with a file of 7-10.
The Lions dropped six of their first seven video games then went 8-2 after that, and simply barely missed the playoffs.
The Giants jumped out to a 6-1 begin, lost at Seattle in Week 8, and staggered into the playoffs with a 9-7-1 file. They beat the Vikings within the wildcard spherical, 31-24, then bought completely destroyed by the Eagles, 38-7.

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2023

Seattle’s 2nd-place end in 2022 matches them up towards the 2nd place groups from the NFC East, NFC South, and AFC South this yr.

Groups: Carolina, Dallas, and Tennessee
Mixed file in 2022: 26-25

Of those three groups, solely the Cowboys made the playoffs final yr. The Panthers completed in Eleventh-place within the NFC, and, coincidentally, the Titans got here in Eleventh within the AFC.

Enjoyable Reality: The mixed 2022 file of this yr’s non-common opponents (26-25) is sort of equivalent to that of final yr’s non-common opponents (25-25-1).

Season-to-Season Comparability

At some degree, this can be a Energy of Schedule (SOS) dialogue, however with a specific amount of context reasonably than simply straight numbers.

Mixed Data

Seattle’s 2022 opponents completed the 2021 season 5 video games beneath .500, with a mixed file of 116-121-1.

They completed the 2022 season with a mixed file of 111-126-1.

That’s a 5 recreation swing within the flawed course.

For them.

Talking of swings . . .

Seattle’s 2023 opponents completed the 2022 season 23 video games over .500, with a mixed file of 129-106-2.

For these which might be mathematically challenged, that’s a 14-game swing.

(13 extra wins, 15 extra losses)

That, greater than perhaps anything, is why some of us have a look at Seattle’s schedule this yr and suppose that matching final yr’s file may be a tall order.

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High quality opponents

Six of Seattle’s 2022 opponents had made the playoffs the earlier yr: the 49ers, Buccaneers, Cardinals, Chiefs, Raiders, and Rams.

Solely 5 of them made the playoffs in 2022: the 49ers, Buccaneers, Chargers, Chiefs, and Giants.

This yr, the Seahawks once more face six groups that made the playoffs the earlier yr: Baltimore, Cincinnati, Dallas, New York, Philadelphia, and San Francisco.

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Utilizing parity as some extent of demarcation

No matter the place you stand on the query of the NFL being a parity-driven league, it’s typically attention-grabbing to view the league by that lens.

Assuming that parity means .500 . . .

. . . and counting every of the video games the Seahawks performed / will play (i.e., counting Seattle’s division rivals twice):

Eleven of Seattle’s 17 video games in 2022 had been towards groups that completed the earlier season above .500.
In 2023, solely 9 of the 17 video games are towards groups that completed above .500 the earlier yr.

Increase your hand when you noticed that distinction of minus-two coming.

Now, right here’s the attention-grabbing half . . .

If we don’t double-count Seattle’s division rivals, and solely concentrate on the variety of groups Seattle faces that had been above .500 the earlier season:

2022 = Eight groups
2023 = Eight groups

Confused?

Don’t be; right here’s the breakdown:

2022 = Three NFC West groups, all of whom completed the 2021 season over .500 (and had been thus double-counted), plus 5 different groups (8 groups for a complete of 11 video games)
2023 = One NFC West staff (SF) that was over .500 in 2022, plus seven different groups (8 groups for a complete of 9 video games)

Ultimate Ideas

Depend me amongst those who suppose the Seahawks’ schedule is A LOT tougher this yr than it was in 2022 . . .

. . . on paper.

Final yr, DraftKings Sportsbook put the Over/Underneath on Seattle’s wins at 5-1/2.

Seattle topped that by 3-1/2 video games.

This yr, the Over/Underneath for the Seahawks is 8-1/2 video games.

I’m taking the Over and am predicting that Seattle tops it by no less than the identical margin as final yr (min. 12 wins).

Go Hawks!

Bonus Protection

For those who like rankings and betting odds:

Seven of the Seahawks’ fourteen opponents this yr are ranked within the high half of ESPN’s present NFL Football Power Index, with 4 of them within the top-10: Philadelphia (No. 2), Cincinnati (No. 4), San Francisco (No. 5), and Dallas (No. 8).

In the meantime, over at DraftKings Sportsbook, six of Seattle’s opponents rank within the top-10 in regard to their odds of successful the Tremendous Bowl:

Philadelphia is No. 2 (+650)
San Francisco is No. 4 (+1,000)
Cincinnati is No. 5 (+1,200)
Dallas is No. 6 (+1,400)
Baltimore is No. 8 (+2,000)
Detroit is tied for No. 9 with Miami (+2,200).

Word: For what it’s price, the Seahawks at the moment have the Thirteenth-best odds of successful the Tremendous Bowl at +3,000.

And, for these which might be curious how our NFC West rivals stack as much as us:

Outcomes of NFC West Division Video games the previous two seasons:

Arizona: 4-2 in 2021; 1-5 in 2022
Los Angeles: 3-3 in 2021; 1-5 in 2022
San Francisco: 2-4 in 2021; 6-0 in 2022
Seattle: 3-3 in 2021; 4-2 in 2022

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Outcomes of NFC West Widespread Video games in 2022:

Arizona: 2-2 vs. the NFC South; 1-3 vs. the AFC West; 3-5 total.
Los Angeles: 2-2 vs. the NFC South; 2-2 vs. the AFC West; 4-4 total.
San Francisco: 3-1 vs. the NFC South; 2-2 vs. the AFC West; 5-3 total.
Seattle: 0-4 vs. the NFC South; 2-2 vs. the AFC West; 2-6 total.

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NFC West Non-Widespread Video games

As was beforehand famous, the Seahawks’ non-common opponents in 2022 had been the Giants, the Jets, and the Lions. Seattle went 3-0 towards them.

This yr, Seattle’s non-common opponents are the Cowboys, the Panthers, and the Titans.

Listed below are the non-common opponents for Seattle’s division rivals:

2022:

Arizona: Minnesota (L) New England (L), and Philadelphia (L); total 0-3.
Los Angeles: Buffalo (L), Dallas (L), and Inexperienced Bay Packers (L); total 0-3.
San Francisco: Chicago (L), Miami (W), and Washington (W); total 2-1.