I up to date the Top 100 Prospects list late final week; yow will discover the accompanying piece I wrote, which has just a little extra element on the farm system rankings, latest draftees and the commerce deadline, here. I additionally wrote about all the pitchers on the Top 100. This piece goes via the hitters and why they stack the best way they do.
Principally each prime place participant prospect you’ll examine right here is an unfinished product. The very prime of the checklist at the moment lacks a flawless elite prospect; even essentially the most gifted gamers within the minors proper now have changes to make or blemishes that may turn out to be extra of a problem towards large league pitching. As with the piece on pitchers, you’ll most likely need the checklist open in a separate tab to observe together with my notes; I’ve got that here, with hitters isolated away from the arms.
Jackson Holliday and James Wooden
Orioles infielder Jackson Holliday has begun taking part in protection once more coming off his IL stint for elbow irritation. He seems somewhat rusty and uncomfortable, if not nonetheless compromised to some extent. He’s making quite a lot of routine performs look tougher than they should be, and the standard of his palms has backed up. He additionally doesn’t look nice on offense. He’s much less explosive than final yr and infrequently late to the contact level. Holliday is inside-outing pitches on the internal third that he was pulling final yr; this was the case earlier than the IL stint and has remained so since he has returned.
I’m inclined to provide Holliday numerous room to breathe on these items (I didn’t give a dinged-up Marcelo Mayer a lot leeway final yr, which seems just like the flawed choice now), and he’s nonetheless performing in a superlative method at Triple-A Norfolk, the place he has a 144 wRC+ and practically 50% hard-hit charge at age 20. However he does seem like a 20-year-old misplaced in a sea of adults, and it’s turn out to be robust to make a robust argument for Holliday over James Wood proper now. Wooden is freakier and is preserving his head above water within the large leagues, and if Holliday’s points on protection are lasting, then the as soon as massive hole between their defensive projections has closed. I don’t all of the sudden suppose Holliday is susceptible to busting or something like that, however I can’t have a 70 on him proper now. He slides a spot.
There’s been no change for Wooden since my final replace. Massive league pitchers are attacking him down and away with higher frequency, and Wooden, whose entrance facet usually stays too excessive all through his swing to achieve these pitches, is swinging excessive of quite a lot of them and putting out 34.7% of the time. He’s proven flashes of having the ability to bend deeper into his decrease half in order that his barrel can dive to this location, however he’s not doing so constantly but. Modifications to the composition of Wooden’s decrease physique and the way he makes use of it in his swing are key issues to search for when he will get getting into camp subsequent spring.
The Rays Children
The Rays have three impression prospects in infielder Junior Caminero (no. 3), shortstop Carson Williams (no. 5), and first baseman Xavier Isaac (no. 9). The Rays have begun to play Caminero at second and third base in Durham. Apart from the “feast or famine” dynamic created by Cami’s youthful strategy on protection (at occasions spectacular, at others reckless), he seems fairly good at each spots contemporary off a Grade-2 quad pressure.
Williams and Isaac each have strikeout points and can most likely require a chronic adjustment to large league pitching earlier than they peak as offensive performers, particularly Williams. Consider Williams as the present iteration of Pete Crow-Armstrong: His elite protection at a premium place goes to be instantly evident however strikeouts will undermine his offense. Finally, I believe Williams will get to large energy (he already has quite a bit for a 21-year-old and nonetheless has room for extra) and be an impression participant. He has fairly horrible breaking ball recognition proper now and, like PCA, the beginning of his profession on offense will most likely be rocky. However over time, Williams’ output ought to find yourself being much like what Willy Adames has carried out.
Issac’s swing-and-miss points are additionally sort of scary; his contact charges (round 61%) are on the backside of what we see from impression large league sluggers. He’s struggling to cowl the outer third of the zone proper now. Nonetheless, like Wooden, Issac exhibits glimpses of not solely having the ability to cowl that a part of the zone however of being harmful on the market. He’s most profitable in doing this when he’s bent on the waist over the zone. His energy is so huge that I believe Isaac might be a well-below-average contact hitter and nonetheless be an impression participant. He has a 60% hard-hit charge to this point this yr. To contextualize that, Aaron Judge’s profession mark is 57% and there isn’t a cluster round him; Decide is in a tier on his personal. If at any level Isaac begins to know how straightforward it’s for him to hit for energy together with his palms alone, he’s going to have that energy and one thing extra like a mean hit software, leading to years the place he hits 40 house runs.
Williams and Isaac are most likely nonetheless a few years away. Williams is a possible September 2025 debut, whereas Isaac is monitoring a yr behind him. Within the meantime, gamers like Curtis Mead and Jonathan Aranda (as soon as he’s wholesome) ought to lastly get a chronic alternative to ascertain themselves, maybe instantly if the Rays proceed to make trades.
The Remainder of the 60 FV Prospects
This tier is generally occupied by gamers projected to deliver impression offense whereas additionally taking part in an up-the-middle place. With few exceptions, you need gamers like this somewhat than their nook place counterparts. Orioles catcher Samuel Basallo hasn’t caught back-to-back video games since mid-June and has struggled on offense for the final couple of weeks. He seemed completely huge in comparison with the opposite children on the Futures Sport, and he isn’t an athletic mover, however his arm is just too good to maneuver him out from behind the plate. I’m not going to boost a fuss a few teenage catcher (Basallo turns 20 in mid-August) having a so-so July at Double-A; he’s been good for a lot of the season. There’s been no change to his report — he nonetheless has a lefty-hitting Gary Sánchez-type talent set:
I’ll admit to being swayed by Marcelo Mayer’s hit information to this point this season, which features a actually spectacular 50% hard-hit charge. I additionally revisited his protection on tape, and because it has continued to pattern in a optimistic path, he moved up on this replace.
Dylan Crews seems okay in middle subject. His routes are sometimes circuitous and he tasks as a mean defender somewhat than an impression one. He’d play a nook on most groups; should you have a look at who has performed quite a lot of center field in the big leagues this year, solely 10 or so of these guys are at or under the extent Crews is on the market. Regardless that he’s minimize his strikeout charges a bit at Triple-A, Crews’ swing path goes to go away him susceptible to large league velo round his palms and he’ll most likely at all times strike out a good bit. However he’s so explosive and highly effective that he’ll run into loads of extra-base hits regardless of less-than-great barrel really feel.
Jordan Lawlar (torn thumb ligament, a number of hamstring strains) has been injured just about all yr. There’s been no change to his report.
I wrote about Ethan Salas very recently.
The 55 FV Tier
This grouping begins with the cluster of well-rounded nook outfield bats who’re poised to be heart-of-the-order forces. They’re primarily stacked based mostly on their proximity to the large leagues, besides I slid Heston Kjerstad a tad due to his tendency to chase. The names on this group have been clumped collectively on this a part of the rankings for some time now.
Colson Montgomery remains to be simply too large and sluggish for me to really feel snug projecting him as a mean shortstop defender, however with Bryan Ramos (who has struggled on offense this yr, however remains to be taking part in acrobatic protection that I believe shall be plus at maturity) round, it is smart to let Montgomery play shortstop within the large leagues whereas the Sox are nonetheless rebuilding. If Ramos turns into the defender I believe he’ll, then the 2 of them is perhaps okay as a left-side combo even when I’m proper about Colson being a 40 glove.
Wrapping up the 55 FV hitters are two prospects with enormous energy potential for up-the-middle gamers: Yankees outfielder Spencer Jones and Rangers shortstop Sebastian Walcott. Jones is basically struggling; he seems completely uncomfortable on the dish and isn’t even accessing his energy amidst all of the whiffs. He has a sub-.400 xSLG on the yr and is poised to slip throughout the 100 this winter until he turns issues round between now and the top of the season. He seems higher in middle subject than he does on offense.
In the meantime, Walcott is just too freaky to have ranked decrease than this. Should you’ve been studying this website for some time, you realize I are inclined to put the acute danger/upside guys towards the again of the 55 FV tier whereas they’re within the decrease minors. That applies to Walcott, who I believe has a greater shot to stay at shortstop for whereas than I did on my final replace. His energy ceiling is within the Fernando Tatis Jr. space.
The 50 FV Tier
To keep away from this publish getting too lengthy, from right here on out I’ll solely go into element on the gamers who’ve moved. I’ve power-hitting up-the-middle hitters on the prime of the 50 FV tier. Twins middle fielder Emmanuel Rodriguez, Yankees middle fielder Jasson Domínguez and Cubs middle fielder Kevin Alcántara stack subsequent to 1 one other once more. Rodriguez is a extra secure offensive participant than Spencer Jones (who is 2 spots in entrance of him), however my preseason justification for Jones over Rodriguez and Domínguez was that his body has optimistic long-term projection whereas the opposite two are already maxed of their early 20s, and prone to thicken and sluggish.
After the power-hitting middle fielders is a giant group (from about thirty second to fifty fifth total) of contact-oriented, up-the-middle on a regular basis gamers who’re lined up largely based mostly on their proximity to the large leagues. Braves catcher Drake Baldwin is the brand new title on this group. His minor league Statcast information jives with the spectacular BP and in-game efficiency he had on the Futures Sport. There’s sufficient energy right here for this man to be a main catcher.
There are a few nook guys who’ve sufficient energy to advantage inclusion on this up-the-middle group: latest draftees Jac Caglianone and Charlie Condon, and Cubs infielder Matt Shaw, who lacks a real place. Trickling in amongst and simply behind these guys are up-the-middle gamers with well-rounded however much less distinctive talent units, guys like Kyle Teel and Drew Gilbert, who ought to be strong on a regular basis gamers however lack a superlative attribute. Nacho Alvarez Jr. strikes into the High 100 as a result of the early returns on him taking part in non-shortstop positions are very favorable. He seems like a plus or higher third base defender, which we simply didn’t know till now as a result of he had solely been taking part in a mediocre shortstop.
After Nacho, we get into the group of hitters with excessive upside and variance, beginning with Colt Emerson and Termarr Johnson (who each look extra like second basemen than shortstops to me, which is a part of why they’re down right here) and ending with Brady House. After Home, I’ve acquired flawed gamers with actual query marks. Bryan Ramos’ bat velocity is middling, however he can actually decide it and he has posted above-average contact charges his whole profession. The group of catchers who’re most likely first basemen (at the very least more often than not) comes after Ramos, and the primary base or unhealthy nook defender hitters with strikeout points (Jace Jung, Owen Caissie, and many others.) deliver up the rear.
Between them I sandwiched just a few extra up-the-middle guys with precocious bat-to-ball expertise. Brewers shortstop Cooper Pratt enters the 100 after wanting not solely surprisingly viable at shortstop, however fairly good there. Guardians center infielder Welbyn Francisca and Dodgers middle fielder Eduardo Quintero have proven sufficient on either side of the ball to hitch this group, too. These guys aren’t in Sebastian Walcott territory when it comes to their energy potential (not one of the hitters on this contingent are), however I really feel like they’re one of the best of this yr’s complex-level contingent. I additionally thought-about Diamondbacks third baseman Yassel Soler, who has raked all yr, however in the end he’s a nook man whose plate self-discipline I wish to see examined by full-season pitching.
