Hello, Bye: Checking in on the Races for Playoff Seeding

With simply 10 days left to go within the common season, 4 groups — the Brewers, Dodgers, Guardians, and Yankees — have clinched playoff berths, and whereas only one division race has been determined, solely two others have even a faint pulse. There’s nonetheless loads of drama available as regards to the Wild Card races, which primarily boil all the way down to a pair of four-to-make-three situations; Seattle might need been a stronger fifth within the AL if sure Mariners who reached third base didn’t insist upon taking very strange walkabouts. Past that, it’s additionally price checking in on the jockeying for place to assert the first-round byes that go to the highest two groups in every league.

As soon as upon a time, this house can be stuffed with my reintroducing readers to the idea of Team Entropy, however via the 2022 Collective Bargaining Settlement, Main League Baseball and the gamers’ union traded the potential pleasure and scheduling mayhem created by on-field tiebreakers and sudden-death video games in change for a bigger stock of playoff video games. The 12-team, two-bye format was designed to reward the highest two groups by permitting them to bypass the opportunity of being eradicated in best-of-three sequence. To this point, nevertheless, issues haven’t labored out that manner, as a result of outcomes in a best-of-five sequence are solely barely extra predictable than these of a best-of-three.

In reality, the Nationwide League groups who’ve acquired byes underneath the newish system have misplaced all 4 Division Sequence since, two apiece by the Dodgers and Braves. The 111-win Dodgers had been ousted by an 89-win Padres workforce in 2022, after which final yr’s 100-win workforce was knocked off by the 84-win Diamondbacks. In 2022, the 101-win Braves fell to an 87-win Phillies workforce, and final yr, after profitable 104 video games within the common season, Atlanta as soon as once more was eradicated by a Philadelphia membership that had completed 14 video games behind the Braves within the standings. American League bye groups have had extra success, going 3-1, with final yr’s 90-win Rangers beating the 101-win Orioles for the lone upset. The Astros have taken care of enterprise in each years, with their 106-win membership sweeping the 90-win Mariners in 2022 and their 90-win workforce beating the 87-win Twins final yr.

That 3-5 sequence document of the bye groups isn’t a big sufficient pattern measurement from which we are able to draw conclusions, however it has stirred annual discussions about whether or not the rust induced by not taking part in a Wild Card sequence offsets the benefits — the additional relaxation that permits banged-up gamers to heal and managers to optimize their rotations. Intuitively, that rationalization could make some sense, however it’s not supported by the info. As research by Dan Szymborski final yr confirmed, in postseason matchups since 1981 the place there existed a notable discrepancy in relaxation, with one workforce having a layoff of 4 or extra days dealing with an opponent that had two or fewer days off, the groups with extra relaxation went 24-11 of their subsequent recreation. It’s a bonus.

Bearing that in thoughts, let’s examine in on the races for the 2 byes in every league.

Nationwide League

The Brewers clinched their second consecutive NL Central title on Wednesday, a powerful feat on condition that they traded ace Corbin Burnes final winter, let perennial Supervisor of the 12 months candidate Craig Counsell slip away to the rival Cubs, and misplaced the resurgent Christian Yelich to season-ending back surgery in August. At 88-65 with 9 video games to play, nevertheless, they’re at a determined drawback in relation to claiming a bye, as they’re three video games behind the Phillies and Dodgers (each 91-62). They’ve the hardest remaining schedule of that trio, with an opponents’ weighted profitable share of .513 based on our playoff odds; they host the Diamondbacks (85-68), to whom they misplaced on Thursday night time, for 3 extra video games in Milwaukee, then play three in Pittsburgh (71-81) earlier than closing out the season at residence towards the Mets (85-68), who entered Friday tied with the Diamondbacks for the second NL Wild Card place. (The Mets maintain the tiebreaker there.) Factoring of their losses within the season sequence to each Philadelphia (2-4) and Los Angeles (3-4), at this writing our odds give the Brewers only a 3.6% likelihood of claiming a bye.

The Phillies are the workforce within the drivers’ seat right here. As a result of they received their season sequence towards the Brewers (4-2), Dodgers (5-1), and Padres (5-1) — the latter of whom continues to be alive on this context, as I’ll clarify beneath — they might win a tiebreaker towards every of these groups in the event that they wind up with the identical document. They play three extra towards the Mets at Citi Discipline, then head residence to face the Cubs (78-75), and shut the season by visiting the Nationals (68-85). Our playoff odds give Philadelphia a 97.6% likelihood of clinching a bye, the best of any workforce in both league.

The Dodgers clinched their twelfth straight playoff look on Thursday, courtesy of Shohei Ohtani’s 50/50 fireworks show in Miami. They’re in good however not nice form on this context, and never simply because their rotation has been decimated to the purpose that each Tyler Glasnow and Gavin Stone, their solely pitchers who’ve thrown greater than 90 innings this season, have been dominated out for the postseason as a consequence of arm accidents. Whereas they’ve by far the simplest schedule of any workforce the remainder of the way in which (.452 energy of schedule), in between their two three-game sequence with the Rockies (at residence this weekend, at Coors Discipline for the ultimate one), they face the Padres (87-66) for 3 in Los Angeles from September 24-26. San Diego has already clinched the season sequence between the 2 groups by dint of its 7-3 head-to-head document so far, so if the 2 groups had been to complete with the identical document, the Dodgers can be a Wild Card workforce. In the event that they do win the division and by some means end with the identical document because the Brewers, the Dodgers maintain the tiebreaker, having gone 4-3 towards Milwaukee. Thus our playoff odds nonetheless give them a 92.7% likelihood of claiming a bye and a 93.7% likelihood of profitable the division, however the door stays ajar.

The Padres, who lead the NL Wild Card race, would possibly get whiplash given the jarring distinction between the workforce they shut out their common season residence schedule with this weekend, the decrepit White Sox (36-117), and their highway journeys to Los Angeles and Arizona. Along with proudly owning a tiebreaker over the Dodgers, in addition they personal one over the Brewers, towards whom they went 5-2 this season. These two aces within the gap assist to enhance their odds to a 6.3% likelihood of profitable the division and a 5.8% likelihood of claiming a bye — not big, however they’ve the very best likelihood of crashing this occasion.

American League

As with the NL, the race for the 2 AL byes boils all the way down to 4 groups, with two of them extraordinarily closely favored at this level. A type of two spots is just about sure to go to whichever membership wins the AL East. With six wins of their final eight video games, the Yankees (89-64) have widened their division lead over the Orioles (85-68) from half a recreation to 4 video games. That’s boosted their odds of profitable the AL East to 95.9%, with their odds of claiming a bye primarily the identical (95.8%). With a .495 energy of schedule the remainder of the way in which, they don’t completely have a cakewalk. Along with three video games in Oakland, they’ve three crucial ones at residence towards the Orioles (September 24-26) earlier than closing the season with three internet hosting the Pirates.

The Orioles haven’t had a profitable month since June, going 32-37 because the begin of July, 27-30 because the All-Star break, and 7-9 this month. Not solely have they got to beat their four-game deficit within the AL East race, they should do it towards the hardest slate for a remaining AL contender (.532 energy of schedule), internet hosting the surging Tigers — who at 80-73 are tied with the Twins for the third AL Wild Card spot — for 3, then occurring the highway to face the Yankees and Twins. Be aware that the O’s at the moment lead the Yankees 6-4 of their head-to-head sequence; on the very least, capturing the season sequence and thus the tiebreaker is of important significance. Baltimore’s odds of claiming the bye are all the way down to 4.0%. It’s not nice.

The Guardians (89-65) simply took three out of 4 from the reeling Twins, chopping their magic quantity to clinch the AL Central to 3. They end up their season with three video games towards the Cardinals (77-76) in St. Louis, adopted by 5 at residence — two towards the Reds (74-80) and three towards the Astros (83-70). If the Guardians do end with the identical document because the Yankees, they’d be they second seed as a result of they misplaced the season sequence, 4-2. Cleveland can be down 2-1 within the season sequence with the Astros, on the off likelihood that one comes all the way down to a tiebreaker.

It’s powerful to consider that tiebreaker can be vital on condition that Houston must make up a six-game benefit with 9 to play. The Astros host a dreadful Angels squad (62-91), whom they beat Thursday night time, for 3 extra video games this weekend, then the Mariners (78-75) for 3 earlier than touring to Cleveland for the ultimate weekend. Tiebreaker-wise, Houston received the season sequence towards the Orioles (5-2) however misplaced the one with the Yankees (1-6).

I want I might let you know that is all going to be as thrilling as the ultimate couple of weeks had been within the before times, however this ain’t Group Entropy. Nonetheless, there’s one thing at stake for every of the aforementioned groups, and as famous, there’s nonetheless some meat on these Wild Card bones. We’ll make amends for these races quickly.