Free Agent Profile: Sean Manaea

Left-hander Sean Manaea has a prolonged observe document of being a good mid-rotation starter, however the previous couple of years have been difficult. General, he has an earned run common of 4.10 in simply over 1,000 profession innings on the main league degree. He has struck out roughly 1 / 4 of batters confronted in every of the previous 4 full seasons and has by no means had a stroll charge greater than 8.4%.

However in 2022, his efficiency dipped, as his ERA jumped to 4.96 with the Padres. His peripherals have been nonetheless fairly sturdy, as he struck out 23.2% of batters confronted and walked simply 7.5%, however it was nonetheless a poor time for diminished outcomes as he was heading into free company for the primary time.

The Giants took a shot on Manaea, giving him a two-year, $25MM deal that allowed him to choose out after the primary season. The membership was aggressive in deploying openers, solely giving Manaea 10 precise begins, however he logged 117 2/3 innings on the 12 months over 37 appearances. He completed with a 4.44 ERA, 25.7% strikeout charge and eight.4% stroll charge. Although these outcomes have been extra respectable than spectacular, he nonetheless determined to set off his opt-out and return to the open market.

Issues get slightly extra fascinating when digging deeper into his season, which can give extra perception into his resolution to strive free company once more. Notably, Manaea added a sweeper this 12 months and had nice outcomes with it. Per Statcast knowledge, he first threw the pitch on Could 30 and finally tossed it 214 instances, 10.4% of his pitches thrown on the season general. He felt comfy throwing it to each righties and lefties, with an ideal cut up of 107 sweepers thrown to every. That resulted in an enormous whiff proportion of 35.1% and a batting line of .140/.161/.163. Even when batters did make contact, the 82.8mph common exit velocity was simply the bottom of any of his choices.

The influence on his general outcomes is kind of clear. In his first 11 appearances of the 12 months, previous to introducing the sweeper, he had a 6.61 ERA, 28.9% strikeout charge, 12.5% stroll charge, 32.6% floor ball charge and eight house runs in simply 32 2/3 innings. The remainder of the best way, he had a 3.60 ERA, 24.2% strikeout charge, 6.6% stroll charge, 44% floor ball charge and 6 house runs in 85 innings. The Giants gave him 4 precise begins to complete the 12 months and he posted a 2.25 ERA in these, averaging six innings per begin.

That is nonetheless a reasonably small pattern measurement of outcomes however the change in his arsenal a minimum of provides some cause to imagine that it might not simply be a fluke. Final month, Driveline tweeted some video of a session with Manaea which confirmed him additionally attempting out a splitter, maybe suggesting Manaea remains to be looking for one more gear going ahead.

MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents predicted Manaea for a contract of two years and $22MM, a mean annual worth of $11MM. That’s roughly the going charge for a back-end innings eater as of late. MLBTR’s Contract Tracker reveals that Lance Lynn bought $11MM whereas Kyle Gibson bought $13MM. Jack Flaherty bought $14MM and Luis Severino $13MM regardless of a poor platform seasons, whereas Frankie Montas bought $16MM though he missed nearly the entire 12 months recovering from shoulder surgical procedure. Tyler Mahle bought $22MM over two years though he’s going to overlook a minimum of a part of the upcoming marketing campaign whereas rehabbing from Tommy John surgical procedure.

If Manaea can preserve the outcomes he confirmed over the ultimate 4 months of 2023, he may very well be a cut price, particularly with pitchers like Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery set for nine-figure offers. The necessity for beginning pitching remains to be excessive and nearly each membership would profit from the sort of efficiency Manaea appears able to. His market has been very quiet this winter, with the Giants reportedly all in favour of a reunion however no different suitors publicly talked about.