Free Agent Faceoff: Aroldis Chapman/Matt Moore

The marketplace for pure relievers has been deathly sluggish this winter. Since free company opened in early November, simply 4 full-time relievers have signed multi-year contracts this winter: right-handers Chris Stratton and Emilio Pagan signed on with the Royals and Reds, respectively, whereas each NPB lefty Yuki Matsui and KBO righty Woo Suk Go just lately agreed to offers with the Padres. Whereas the likes of Nick Martinez, Reynaldo Lopez, and (most just lately) Sean Manaea have all signed multi-year pacts this offseason as effectively, every of that trio has began video games previously and figures to have at the least an opportunity of incomes a rotation spot getting into Spring Coaching.

There’s little query who the highest canine accessible in free company this offseason is by way of reduction pitching. Southpaw Josh Hader has been within the dialog for finest reliever in baseball virtually since his debut again in 2017 and is coming off an unimaginable platform season the place he posted a 1.28 ERA in 56 1/3 innings of labor whereas accumulating 33 saves and placing out 36.8% of batters confronted. Behind him, the most effective accessible bullpen arms largely seem like right-handed. MLBTR’s Anthony Franco recently discussed the professionals and cons of two of the winter’s finest righty relievers, Robert Stephenson and Jordan Hicks. What of the left-handed reduction market? With Hader in a league of his personal, the subsequent tier of southpaw free agent arms options two dominant back-end veterans of their mid-thirties: Aroldis Chapman and Matt Moore.

The 2 may hardly have had extra totally different profession paths main them so far. Chapman often is the most well-recognized reliever within the sport right now, because the veteran fireballer made seven All Star appearances between 2012 and 2021, pitching to an unimaginable 2.25 ERA and a couple of.13 FIP in 540 1/3 innings of labor and racking up 305 saves throughout that ten-year span whereas pitching for the Reds, Yankees, and Cubs. Throughout that point, Chapman’s fastball routinely topped 100 mph and averaged 99.5 mph whereas maxing out at over 105 mph. That velocity made him one of many hardest-throwing pitchers within the sport, significantly on the time of his debut again in 2010.

Over time, nevertheless, indicators of decline grew to become evident in Chapman’s profile. After pitching simply 11 2/3 innings through the shortened 2020 season, 2021 noticed the flamethrower submit a career-worst 3.99 FIP due to a 15.6% strikeout fee that was his highest since his first full season within the majors again in 2011. Whereas Chapman managed to pitch via these purple flags to rack up 30 saves and submit a stable 3.36 ERA, the wheels got here off extra noticeably for the left-hander throughout 2022, his remaining season in New York. Chapman posted the worst common fastball velocity of his profession that season, averaging “simply” 97.5 mph on his heater. His already elevated stroll fee additionally continued to climb, reaching 17.5%. In the meantime, his strikeout fee plummeted to simply 26.9%, by far the worst of his profession. Chapman’s 4.46 ERA and 4.57 FIP had been additionally profession worsts, and his profession with the Yankees ended inauspiciously as he was left off the club’s ALDS roster after skipping a workforce exercise.

Chapman’s struggles left him to signal a modest one-year cope with the Royals in free company final winter in hopes of recouping his worth. The lefty did effectively for himself in that regard as his common fastball velocity climbed again as much as 99.1 mph, the very best it had been since his age-29 season again in 2017. With the improved velocity got here renewed success, as Chapman struck out a whopping 41.4% of batters confronted whereas posting a 3.09 ERA and a couple of.52 FIP in 58 1/3 innings of labor for the Royals and Rangers. Whereas Chapman’s 14.5% stroll fee will certainly elevate some eyebrows, if he can proceed placing out batters at elite charges he ought to be capable of pitch across the extra visitors on the basepaths.

Moore, against this, was as soon as thought of the very high prospect in all of baseball and within the early years of his profession with the Rays gave the impression to be a burgeoning star. Tommy John surgical procedure in 2014 obtained in the way in which of Moore’s ascension, nevertheless, and the left-hander was by no means the identical pitcher upon returning to the mound. He scuffled as a fringe rotation possibility for years, bouncing between the Rays, Giants, Rangers, and Tigers earlier than heading to Japan through the 2020 marketing campaign to try to revitalize his profession abroad. Moore excelled with a 2.65 ERA in 85 innings for Nippon Skilled Baseball’s Fukoka Softbanks Hawks in 2020 and returned stateside as a swingman for the Phillies in 2021, although he had one other troublesome season as he struggled to a 6.29 ERA in 73 innings of labor.

That tough efficiency lead Moore to take a minor league contract with the Rangers, however upon changing to reduction full time the lefty shortly made his means not solely into the large league bullpen, however right into a late-inning position with the membership. In 74 innings of labor throughout 63 reduction appearances for the Rangers in 2022, Moore dominated to a 1.95 ERA with a 2.98 FIP and a 27.3% strikeout fee paired with a powerful 43.9% groundball fee. Regardless of that dominance, Moore’s lengthy observe document of struggles previous to the 2022 marketing campaign, his elevated 12.5% stroll fee, and a minuscule 4.2% residence run fee on fly balls probably precipitated concern amongst potential suitors in free company, leaving him to accept a one-year cope with the Angels final winter.

Happily for Moore, his efficiency in 2023 largely backed up his newfound position as a high quality back-end reduction arm and answered these questions relating to sustainability. Although time on the injured listing restricted the left-hander to simply 50 appearances final 12 months, he posted a powerful 2.56 ERA and noticed his strikeout fee tick as much as 27.5% whereas his stroll fee plummeted to a greatly-improved 6.9%. He discovered that success regardless of the truth that his groundball fee dipped to a career-low 35% and a whopping 11.3% of his fly balls left the yard for residence runs final season.

Maybe much more spectacular is the truth that Moore discovered this success whereas being shuffled between three groups late within the season. The Angels positioned him on waivers in August, the place he was claimed by the Guardians, who then promptly waived him for a second time earlier than he was claimed by the Marlins to contribute to their playoff push within the season’s remaining week. Taken collectively, Moore sports activities a sterling 2.20 ERA and three.29 FIP in 126 2/3 innings courting again to the beginning of the 2022 season. That ERA is nice for ninth amongst all relievers with at the least 100 innings of labor throughout the previous two seasons, forward of elite closers like David Bednar and Emmanuel Clase and simply behind the likes of Jhoan Duran and Brusdar Graterol.

Relievers at all times include danger concerned, and that’s particularly so for this pair of southpaws. Each gamers have had vital ups and downs over the previous three seasons, and whereas every figures to fill the identical late-inning bullpen position they vastly totally different execs and cons. Chapman has the title recognition and observe document as a longtime nearer, and remains to be able to elite velocity as proven by his dominant efficiency in 2023. With that being stated, 2022 confirmed simply how far issues can go off the rails for the lefty if he loses even a tick or two of that elite velocity, and his 15.6% stroll fee because the begin of the 2021 marketing campaign appears unlikely to go down a lot at this stage of his profession.

Against this, Moore is something however a recognized commodity given his rollercoaster historical past as a former high prospect and longtime journeyman beginning pitcher who has solely just lately damaged out as a dominant reliever. He lacks the premium velocity Chapman presents, having common 94 mph on his heater in every of the previous two seasons, however has been among the many absolute best relievers in baseball the previous two seasons and has proven the flexibility to enhance across the margins of his profile by slicing his stroll fee almost in half this previous season. Additionally of notice is that Moore, who will have a good time his thirty fifth birthday in June, is sort of a 12 months and a half youthful than Chapman, who turns 36 subsequent month.

Which southpaw would MLBTR readers slightly have on their workforce in 2024? Do you are feeling Chapman’s prolonged observe document and high-end velocity is simply too priceless to go up, or do you favor Moore’s current dominance and stronger command?