Framber Valdez Is Having a Historic Season

When a batter steps as much as the plate in opposition to Framber Valdez, there are a pair issues that may occur. The primary (and most embarrassing) final result is a strikeout. It doesn’t occur too regularly, fortunately – Valdez’s present strikeout price of 18.9% is on the low aspect – however nonetheless, it hurts to have stood there with out positively impacting the sport by any means. How a couple of stroll to ease the ache? Valdez isn’t precisely a management artist, and his present stroll price of 10.1% is on the excessive finish. A free journey to first makes for a happy hitter – no additional clarification wanted. However a doubtlessly better final result is a ball in play, which represent 69.2% of Valdez’s allowed outcomes. That’s a number of contact! Balls in play embrace outs, definitely, but additionally the doubles, triples, and residential runs that provoke batters and followers alike. No different final result is as unpredictable but rewarding.

Based mostly on this, you may assume hitters get pleasure from teeing off in opposition to Valdez. There’s one drawback, although. To date this season, their collective groundball price in opposition to him is a whopping 69.0%. Their collective fly ball price, in the meantime, is a mere 6.9%. Not {that a} grounder can’t turn out to be a success, however with out a component of luck, it’s a single at greatest. And when hitters have tried to avoid that subject by swinging for the fences… nicely, they haven’t succeeded. Valdez has allowed simply eight fly balls this season. It’s his world they’re residing in.

In the event you’re a FanGraphs reader, this in all probability isn’t something new. Valdez has been an outlier for some time now, a remorseless groundball machine. This text doesn’t say what hasn’t already been mentioned about him at the least as soon as. However I needed to level this out:

In his most up-to-date begin in opposition to the Nationals, Valdez reached the 40-inning threshold. That made it potential to assemble this fantastic thing about a desk. Final yr, Valdez set the trendy file for a pitcher’s groundball-to-fly ball ratio, with 4.73. To date this yr, he’s shattered his earlier excessive with a ratio that appears all of the extra ridiculous in context. There are a bunch of high-3s, low-4s, then the outrageous quantity Valdez has proper now. Historic? Historic. It’s early within the season, however nonetheless, that is downright spectacular.

Fact be informed, a number of that’s due to an inflated line drive price – 24.1%, versus 14.9% final season and 18.3% for Valdez’s total profession. Hitters aren’t fairly lifting the ball sufficient, it appears. And although that may be a residue of Valdez’s excellence, there’s little evidence to counsel sure pitchers are higher (or worse) at stopping line drives than others. You might say what Valdez is undertaking is unsustainable: His off-the-charts groundball-to-fly ball ratio is constructed partially on the truth that he’s been permitting the worst kind of contact, as bizarre as that sounds.

However what I do purchase is that groundball price. In any case, Valdez completed final season with an excellent higher mark of 70.3%. And for essentially the most half, he’s caught to a time-tested recreation plan this season: throwing downward-moving pitches in the direction of the underside of the zone. Let’s get a more in-depth take a look at that repertoire! First, right here’s the sinker, Valdez’s main pitch:

A recurring theme is that whereas Valdez could not seem spectacular, his numbers and on-field outcomes counsel in any other case. That pitch gained’t seem on any Pitching Ninja compilations, however Valdez’s sinker has all of the makings of a traditional providing. For one, it drops a ton en path to dwelling plate, which helps with inducing contact on the bottom. It’s additionally quick sufficient to beat Valdez’s occasional lapses in command; at 93.8 mph this season, it’s above common for a sinker by way of velocity. There’s nothing loopy right here, however that’s additionally why it really works: Valdez is a yeoman of a pitcher.

Not surprisingly, he additionally throws a changeup, and a nasty one at that. Right here it’s in motion:

Once more, this can be a textbook pitch, particularly along with Valdez’s sinker. The 2 spin on near-identical axes each at launch and on the plate, however it’s the changeup that finally ends up with further sink and fade, leaving batters befuddled. If a sinker is a groundball service provider’s bread, then a changeup is his butter. The 2 go collectively so nicely that pitchers have relied on them for many years. At this level, the sinker-changeup combo is nearly a lifestyle.

However the changeup isn’t the secondary pitch Valdez depends on most frequently. That title belongs to his curveball:

Each pitcher wants at the least one swing-and-miss providing. In Valdez’s case, he’s discovered to belief his huge, looping curveball. It’s really the one pitch in his repertoire that isn’t averaging a detrimental launch angle, however owing to its vertical break and persistently down-and-in placement, his curve continues to be grounder-friendly in comparison with different breaking balls. Apart from, it’s a small worth to pay for a very good variety of whiffs. Would Valdez’s total recreation maintain up with out them? I doubt it.

In so some ways, Valdez is the pitcher he’s all the time been. However he’s additionally made small additions which can be serving to his quest to turn out to be the unquestioned king of groundballs. He has a brand new pitch, for instance. It’s a cutter! It’s a slider! It’s… regardless of the heck Framber Valdez throws! I’m going to aspect with PITCHf/x right here and peg it as a slider, since that’s what it appears to be like wish to me (sorry, Baseball Savant). Right here, you’ll be able to decide for your self:

Proper off the bat, that’s a number of drop – the ninth-most among left-handed pitchers this season, actually. In distinction, Valdez’s slider options little sweep, which fits in opposition to a recent trend. This specific slider form works in his favor, nonetheless. Final yr, after I compared Valdez to teammate Cristian Javier, I famous that sliders with essentially the most vertical motion and the least horizontal motion produce the bottom launch angles. It’s nonetheless unclear why, however that discovering was based mostly on hundreds of pitches from lots of of various pitchers, including to its validity. Perhaps Valdez himself can affirm it: Whereas hitters have solely put 5 of his sliders into play, they’ve all ended up on the bottom. The early outcomes have been nothing wanting phenomenal.

And total, Valdez is throwing more durable than ever earlier than. Is that good for his relentless pursuit of grounders? Completely! Faster sinkers have a tendency to supply extra groundballs. Faster changeups have a tendency to supply extra groundballs. I’m unsure about curveballs, however the precept appears to carry up for sliders as nicely. It’s usually the case that pitchers lose a few of their pitch motion after choosing up a number of ticks, however for Valdez, the trade-off has been minimal. Plus, in case you bear in mind the motion of a pitch relative to its velocity, his curveball is the most effective it’s ever been. That’s no simple enchancment.

However past the numbers, what I really like a lot about Valdez is that he’s arguably the one fashionable pitcher with a full-on dedication in the direction of excessive on-the-ground contact. He’s not like Dallas Keuchel, who’s compelled to wish for such contact as a result of his pitches are sluggish and of doubtful high quality. He’s not like Shane McClanahan or Logan Webb, whose lofty groundball charges are a byproduct of their strikeout stuff. Moderately, he’s a Brandon Webb within the period of high-speed cameras and pitch design. It’s simple to consider him as an anachronism, however I’d argue that he’s really a product of his time. His new pitch, from inception to deployment, took just an offseason and some spring coaching video games, and he’s added velocity with ease. There’s in all probability a model of Valdez able to choosing up extra whiffs, if he so chooses. However that is the trail he’s taken, and it’s one which’s carried out wonders for him.

Can Valdez sustain his absurd groundball-to-fly ball ratio of 10? In all probability not. Bear in mind, we’re on the level within the season the place Ryan Helsley has a detrimental FIP. And as if indicating what’s to come back, he surrendered 4 fly balls in opposition to the Nationals final week, a season-high. There’s a very good probability he stays above final yr’s mark, although, as a result of Valdez appears to be like like an much more efficient groundball machine than earlier than. Stuff- and location-based metrics from each Cameron Grove and Eno Sarris affirm the attention check: His command has held regular, and his stuff obtained a lift due to an uptick in velocity and a second breaking ball. When batters step as much as the plate to face him this season, they’ll stroll some, and perhaps strike out a bit extra. However above all, they’ll be busy slapping the ball onto the infield dust and helplessly working to first base. When that occurs, simply know Valdez is on tempo for the groundball-iest season of all-time, with every measly out a step in the direction of greatness.