For Outfielder-Starved Phillies, Castellanos a Necessary Overpay

The Phillies continued to fill their outfield holes on Friday, signing Nick Castellanos to a five-year deal price $100 million. Regardless of the decline in league-wide offense, the ex-Pink had his greatest offensive season in 2021, hitting .309/.362/.576 with 34 residence runs for a 140 wRC+ and 4.2 WAR. All these numbers have been new profession highs, and this was his first season wherein he climbed over the three-WAR barrier.

It’s an unlimited problem to withstand evaluating the current arcs of Phillies historical past to that of the Braves. Each groups noticed a have to do full rebuilds within the mid-2010s, aggressively amassed prospects, and tried to time their massive pushes into competition close to specific landmarks. For the Braves, it was the brand new stadium, and for Philadelphia, a large new tv cope with Comcast Sportsnet price $2.5 billion and firm fairness. Atlanta’s grasp plan unfolded simply as envisioned: 4 consecutive division titles, culminating within the staff’s first World Collection championship since 1995. The Phillies, then again, solely simply now put collectively their first profitable season in a decade, and by the smallest potential margin.

The explanations for Philadephia’s lackluster rebuild outcomes are myriad, however to simplify it, it comes down to 2 issues. First: the shortcoming, for no matter purpose, to develop minor leaguers, each in-house and from trades, on the price that the Braves have been in a position to. Second: the willingness to make up for this hole, both with cleverness or monetary sources. That’s to not say the Phillies have been lackadaisical of their strikes or unwilling to signal massive free brokers; they introduced in Bryce Harper to a monster contract, landed Zack Wheeler, and often made trades to accumulate expertise like J.T. Realmuto and Jean Segura. However not all these strikes labored out in addition to they hoped, and there have been too many holes on the roster that they tried to fill with wishful pondering.

After a 28–32 end within the COVID-shortened 2020 season, the Phillies made the choice to reassemble, kind of, that very same 28–32 roster for 2021 and count on totally different outcomes. The rotation was so skinny to start out the 12 months that Matt Moore was the fourth starter by intention relatively than some perverse proprietor wager or try at high-concept artwork. Regardless of an MVP season from Harper and a Cy Younger runner-up marketing campaign from Wheeler, they nonetheless solely managed 82 wins.

To do nothing this offseason might need been deadly to the Phillies’ hopes of ever changing into a contender with this core. In-house choices in left area, heart area, and designated hitter all appeared round alternative stage or probably worse. However this time, they didn’t simply put the band again collectively for yet one more album. The largest strikes this offseason have been the signings of Kyle Schwarber earlier in the week and now Castellanos, each gamers at positions at which the Phillies have been dreadfully skinny. Including Castellanos additionally leads to the franchise doing one thing essential it had by no means achieved earlier than: eclipsing the luxurious tax threshold. Sure, there’s a penalty for going over, however the penalty is smaller than the de facto penalty of spending $210 million to have one other 82–80 staff.

This isn’t the right baseball transfer. Essentially the most obtrusive drawback is that each Schwarber and Castellanos are greatest utilized as designated hitters, so one among them will all the time be within the area when each are within the lineup. And when Rhys Hoskins is at DH or has a full break day, each should use their gloves — Schwarber at a place with which he doesn’t have quite a lot of expertise. Castellanos was terrible in proper area by DRS (-19 runs), UZR (-13 runs), and Statcast (-23 outs) when first moved there full time by the Tigers in 2018. He’s improved since, however he’s nonetheless under common and way more prone to decline than enhance on the market as he ages. There’s a notable distinction in his five-year projection in left area in comparison with designated hitter.

In left, ZiPS evaluated Castellanos as price $53.4 million over the subsequent 5 years; at designated hitter, that may soar to $71.3 million. That’s almost a fifth of the full worth of his $100 million contract.

The Phillies don’t have plenty of protection to sacrifice; by Statcast’s reckoning, they ranked twenty fourth in Outs Above Common in 2021. UZR and DRS are not any extra merciful, rating final 12 months’s version at twentieth and useless final, respectively. Aaron Nola might have a vested curiosity in changing into extra of a groundball pitcher once more (or possibly not, given the equally tough present defensive state of the Phillies’ infield).

It’s possible you’ll assume I’m pessimistic about this contract, as I’m on the Kris Bryant cope with the Rockies (which Jay Jaffe wrote up for us). However for a staff just like the Phillies, the necessity to add good gamers is much extra pressing than the necessity to add good gamers in a financially environment friendly method. After I projected Seiya Suzuki for every staff final month, he added extra playoff chance to Philadelphia than every other staff in baseball, because of the mix of hovering the low-80s in wins and a large void within the outfield. The place Bryant merely adjustments the Rockies’ diploma of lousiness, Castellanos nudges the Phillies meaningfully nearer to a playoff race that has an additional slot this 12 months. Suzuki would have been preferable, however the Phillies can’t get him at this level or myriad different gamers who’re higher suits. They’re working with the subset of gamers who’re free and prepared to play for them or who a staff will commerce to them. In that atmosphere, Castellanos was probably among the best decisions accessible.

In pure efficiency phrases, did the Phillies overpay for Castellanos? Completely. However not closing the deal would have been far worse.