I’m not a daring predictions type of man. Perhaps it comes with the territory of writing a lot: On common, my views are fairly down the center as a result of I simply have so many views. There’s a lot baseball bouncing round in my mind on a regular basis that it tends towards the imply. Or perhaps that’s only a cop out, a method to pre-excuse my lack of boldness. As a result of it’s time for my annual try at it. Listed here are 5 issues I feel will happen that hopefully will shock you somewhat – however not an excessive amount of, as a result of I’m hoping that at the very least two or three of those truly will transpire.
1. The Mets Will Lead Baseball in DH WAR
Our projections hate J.D. Martinez, and there’s a purpose why: He’s 36 and squarely within the again half of his profession. Over the previous 4 years, he’s posted a 120 wRC+, which is nice however not otherworldly, and he struck out 31.1% of the time in 2023. This type of common trajectory is what projections feast on; they acknowledge early and generally shared indicators of decline after which extrapolate from there.
Doubting those projections wouldn’t actually matter as a daring declare in my ebook, although, as a result of Martinez is an excellent hitter. Additionally, the best way that projections work implies that he’ll exceed these numbers roughly 50% of the time even when they’re a superb approximation of his true expertise. We have to be a lot bolder than that. So let’s kick it up a notch and picture how good Martinez might feasibly be.
If he repeats his 2023 season, Martinez will probably be excellent certainly. He was price 2.2 WAR in solely 472 plate appearances. The Dodgers DH place produced 2.7 WAR due to somewhat assist from Max Muncy (and Amed Rosario’s hitting .571/.667/.714 in 9 DH plate appearances, insert hearth emoji right here). That was good for fifth in baseball.
It was inside hailing distance of second in baseball, the Phillies at 3.3. Philadelphia will get fewer Bryce Harper appearances there, although, and the Mets can again Martinez with another strong batters getting DH time. Meaning the toughest bar to clear right here is Shohei Ohtani. The Angels had been simply first in baseball in DH WAR final 12 months, and the Dodgers challenge that approach this 12 months. He’s actually good! However perhaps Ohtani will fall again barely from his all-world kind, leaving the Mets in first.
2. The Rangers Will Miss the Playoffs
This isn’t a enjoyable prediction, as a result of the Rangers are an excellent enjoyable group. Evan Carter is a prospect crush of mine who’s made good. Wyatt Langford is the brand new hottest title within the sport, a dominant offensive presence who guarantees to kick the group’s lineup up a notch from scary to unstoppable. Adolis García is a blast. Josh Jung is nice, and appears wholesome. I haven’t even talked about Corey Seager and Marcus Semien, who completed second and third in AL MVP voting final 12 months. What a fearsome offense.
The pitching is sweet too, with a bunch of excellent innings-eating arms backing up an injured trio of potential studs. Nathan Eovaldi and Jon Gray challenge for quantity galore. Dane Dunning and Andrew Heaney are good back-of-rotation items. Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer, and Tyler Mahle will return later within the 12 months, and Michael Lorenzen can slide to the bullpen then.
Why do I feel the Rangers will miss the playoffs? As a result of I simply don’t purchase their depth in a tricky AL West. They’ve glorious projections at each offensive place – however just about nothing behind these guys. Ezequiel Duran, Josh Smith, Justin Foscue, and Travis Jankowski are the backups we see getting virtually all of the taking part in time within the occasion that any starter goes on the IL. That’s a tough group. Andrew Knizner is their backup catcher. And, already down three essential items, the beginning rotation will probably be extraordinarily weak to harm early within the season.
The best way I see this taking place is that just a few nagging accidents flip the Texas lineup into a light-weight unit, notably on days when anybody on the earth wants a time without work. Inevitable pitching accidents will imply a number of Cody Bradford innings, and doubtlessly some Jack Leiter time earlier than he’s prepared for the massive leagues. The Rangers are nonetheless gifted sufficient that they might make a run at it – however their division is absolutely powerful. I’ve the Mariners profitable it, however the Astros are clearly excellent as nicely. The AL East is as stacked as ever, and the Central goes to have so many unhealthy groups that the good squads within the coastal divisions will win a ton. You may want 89 or 90 wins simply to succeed in the playoffs within the AL. Final 12 months, Texas squeaked into the playoffs in a good three-way race. I say that this 12 months, the Rangers will find yourself on the flawed facet of the minimize line. Stars and scrubs is a sound group building technique – however when it goes flawed, it goes actually flawed. That’s what I feel will occur right here.
3. Elly De La Cruz Will End High 5 in MVP Voting
It’s essential to know your individual limitations and biases as an analyst, and Dudes Who Usually Look and Play Like Elly De La Cruz is a class I particularly are likely to overrate. I like my energy projection tall and lanky, after years of being in on and flawed about Tyler O’Neill. I like shortstops, notably quick shortstops. It’s undoubtedly attainable that I’m overrating De La Cruz in consequence, however I’ve some technique to my insanity.
As Dan Szymborski pointed out, De La Cruz’s plate self-discipline wasn’t as terrible because it seemed. Certain, he struck out a 3rd of the time, however his underlying metrics weren’t practically that unhealthy, and he truly swung and missed much less incessantly within the majors than at any cease within the minors. That’s what preternaturally gifted gamers do typically; they only get higher in a short time. He additionally didn’t run disastrous chase charges for a 21-year-old swap hitter, and he harnessed his aggression extra because the 12 months went on.
There’s actually not far more to search for when it comes to uncooked energy – he already has it in spades – however I do suppose that De La Cruz will get the ball within the air extra incessantly this 12 months than he did in 2023. His minor league monitor file exhibits that he’s able to avoiding the grounder entice he discovered himself in final 12 months. It’s not an automated or straightforward change, nevertheless it’s the type of enchancment that guys like Elly make. I don’t suppose he’s all of the sudden going to be peak José Bautista or something, however a league common GB/FB ratio would add 4 or 5 homers to his complete, plus a heaping serving to of scorched doubles.
There’s additionally the matter of his swap hitting, which Tom Tango covered in detail. De La Cruz has been a really unhealthy hitter as a righty (28 wRC+ throughout 122 PAs final 12 months). However whereas Tango would have him abandon the fitting facet of the plate, I’ve extra persistence, and that’s another excuse to purchase into the hype. He’s already a robust hitter as a lefty (107 wRC+ in 305 PAs). If he can enhance a bit from the fitting facet, there’s loads of room to develop.
After all, all these enhancements in all probability received’t occur directly. That might be an excessive amount of to ask for. De La Cruz is a superb participant, however he’s solely 22, and there are a number of issues to enhance on. They don’t all should click on, although, as a result of he already appears elite on the different phases of baseball. He’s probably the greatest baserunners within the sport, with blinding pace and in addition nice instincts. Defensive techniques disagree on how good he was in 2023, however scouts suppose he’ll make it work, and even when he’s a median shortstop, that’s an enormous tailwind to his sport. Perhaps I’m a 12 months early, or perhaps I’m simply utterly off base, however I feel that De La Cruz is the following huge star, with emphasis on huge.
4. Erick Fedde Will Make the All Star Sport and Obtain Cy Younger Votes
Daring sufficient for you? Fedde is projected for a 5.00 ERA by our glorious Depth Charts system. In his final season stateside, he posted a 5.81 ERA over 127 innings. That season was so unhealthy that he didn’t get any main league presents, so he headed to Korea to pitch for the NC Dinos final 12 months.
As you might need heard, that journey labored out extremely nicely for him. He received MVP honors within the KBO final 12 months, with a 2.00 ERA, 2.38 FIP, and 29.5% strikeout price. He received the pitching Triple Crown comfortably and rejuvenated his profession. His two-year, $15 million deal with the White Sox greater than doubled his earlier profession MLB earnings. Even when he’s simply a median pitcher, he’s already fairly successful story.
I feel issues will go even higher than that for him, although. I’ve all the time been a Fedde backer, though he’s by no means been nice. I feel the sinker/cutter/slider pitch combine is a kind of setups that produces higher outcomes than you’d count on for middling uncooked stuff, and I can’t put my finger on why, however I all the time thought his stroll numbers had been elevated relative to his command. Lo and behold, his stroll price dropped precipitously in Korea, and it appears good once more in spring coaching. His strikeout price appears a lot worse, however he’s drawing extra swinging strikes than at any earlier level in his profession, so I feel that can come out within the wash.
To be clear, I don’t suppose that Fedde is all of the sudden going to strike out 30% of opponents or something like that. However he’s all the time delivered quantity, and I’m much more intrigued by that quantity now that it comes with a 90 mph onerous cutter and a big-breaking sweeper. He’s additionally added some horizontal wiggle to his sinker whereas sustaining its customary sink. Most significantly, the cutter/slider combo labored out so nicely that it allowed Fedde to ditch his curveball, which principally behaved like a worse model of the slider.
That is nonetheless an extended shot, to be clear. We’re speaking a couple of pitcher with a profession 5.41 ERA right here. His stuff has undoubtedly improved, however we don’t know the way it’ll play in opposition to huge league competitors. The White Sox are going to play largely atrocious protection behind him, too, and that’s tough given how grounder-heavy he’s at his greatest. However I feel it’s all going to work out – notably if the Sox play Nicky Lopez rather a lot when Fedde is on the mound – and that he’ll be one other marvel of late-career pitching enchancment.
5. Two NL Central Groups Will Make the Playoffs
I needed to make this prediction concerning the AL Central, however then I considered it and determined that I couldn’t go fairly *that* far. However whereas the 2 coastal divisions look powerful on the prime this 12 months within the senior circuit, I feel that the balanced Central goes to shock somewhat bit to the upside after disappointing in 2023.
We’re nonetheless early in our investigation of depth right here at FanGraphs, however all 5 NL Central golf equipment positioned fairly extremely after we checked out how nicely groups had been set as much as climate accidents to key gamers. That’s why this prediction will work, if it does. Accidents are inevitable, and a few groups aren’t notably nicely set as much as deal with them. If both of Philadelphia’s prime pitchers go down, there’s going to be an issue. If Corbin Carroll misses time, the Diamondbacks are useless within the water. Logan Webb can’t maintain throwing 200 Cy Younger caliber innings yearly – and the Giants haven’t even been that nice lately with him doing that.
In the meantime, the NL Central groups are awful with good backups. There are pitching questions up and down the division, however none of them revolve round a single irreplaceable ace. The identical is usually true for place gamers. Certain, Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt and my man Elly De La Cruz are nice, however their backups are fairly good too, and it’s not like these three headliners are as gifted as Mookie Betts or Ronald Acuña Jr., both. The gaps listed here are simply smaller.
That’ll add up, so far as I’m involved. I can’t inform you which Central groups are going to come back out on prime. I can’t inform you which West or East groups will disappoint. Aside from the Pirates, in truth, I feel that the division is roughly a good race, and Pittsburgh is way from useless within the water. It’s not a superb division by any stretch of the creativeness, nevertheless it’s an especially balanced one.
My guess is that the Reds and Cardinals will find yourself within the 86-88 win vary, however when you requested me yesterday, I might need had the Brewers and Cubs in these positions. In the meantime, there are 5 – 6 different NL groups higher than these golf equipment at the beginning of the season – however I’m skeptical that they’ll nonetheless be higher after the 12 months performs out. It’s a becoming final prediction, in my thoughts. Baseball is stuffed with infinite potentialities to begin the 12 months. On the finish of the season, although, loads of these potentialities received’t occur – harm, underperformance, and so forth. This one is a wager that some squads are constructed higher than others to make the most of that pure attrition.
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